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Belmont Park Picks & Predictions — September 24, 2026

September 24, 20268 racesAll Belmont Park picks

This card ran on September 24, 2026.

Best bets at Belmont Park, September 24, 2026

Race 17J'ray's JewelML 4/11:10 PM EDT

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Last 30 days at Belmont Park: our top pick won 21 of 90 races (23%) and finished in the money in 50.

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We're heading out to the Big Sandy for an 8-race Thursday card, and the conditions are about as good as late September gets in New York — partly cloudy, 88°F, and the kind of warm turf-friendly afternoon that makes grass horses run like they mean it. If you love turf racing, today is your day: five of the eight races are contested on the green, spanning everything from maiden sprints to claiming routes.

The dirt is in play too, with a pair of allowance-level contests and a claiming mile mixing things up mid-card. All told, there's plenty of meat on this bone — from wide-open maiden fields to spots where pace scenario could unlock some real value at big prices. Let's break it down.

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Race 1

1:10 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

A wide-open maiden turf mile with thirteen first-or-lightly-raced horses, but one runner's TrackWiz rating stands head and shoulders above the field — making this less chaotic than the large field suggests.

win7J'ray's JewelML 4/1

J'ray's Jewel (7) towers over this field with a TrackWiz rating of 85.62 — nearly 30 points clear of the next-best contender. Trained by Hall of Famer William I. Mott, who consistently excels with debut and lightly-raced turf runners, this filly gets Jose Lezcano in the irons at a very manageable 4/1 morning line. Her average speed figure of 55 is competitive in this company, and Mott's patience with grass horses often means they're ready to fire when spotted. This is our top pick with confidence.

place2Carpet CityML 7/2

Carpet City (2) checks in with the second-highest rating in the field at 55.83 and draws the services of Manuel Franco, one of the sharpest tactical riders in the New York colony. Trained by Kenneth G. McPeek, who knows his way around a turf maiden, she posted an average speed figure of 56 — matching or beating most rivals. At 7/2 on the morning line, the value is modest, but she's a solid place-ticket anchor.

show10Decimal PointML 5/1

Decimal Point (10) shares the same rating (53.33) as Lauren's Time but edges her out on average speed figures with a 57 — the highest in the field by our measure. Ricardo Santana Jr. picks up the mount for trainer Lisa Bartkowski, and at 5/1 she offers a touch of value for exotics. In a wide field where pace could get messy, a horse with a strong speed figure baseline is worth including in your show position and trifecta combinations.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 13 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:45 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Turf

Blazing Tiger looks like the class of this maiden turf sprint and comes in as a strong favorite, but Jubilee Parade and Bayfront give the race enough depth to make exotics interesting.

win1Blazing TigerML 2/1

Blazing Tiger (1) carries the field's top TrackWiz rating by a wide margin at 88.54 and is set at a fair 2/1 morning line that reflects his standing. Trained by Miguel Clement with Manuel Franco aboard — a combination that fires regularly at Belmont on the turf — this runner posted an average speed figure of 55 in a field where most are clustered in the 51-55 range. In a six-and-a-half furlong sprint on grass, post position 1 can be tricky, but Franco's rail savvy mitigates that concern. He's the deserving favorite.

place4Jubilee ParadeML 9/2

Jubilee Parade (4) is the clear second choice in our ratings at 76.29, and his average speed figure of 57 actually leads the entire field — suggesting he's capable of running the fastest raw number on paper. Trained by William I. Mott and handled by Jose Lezcano, this is a tandem that rarely wastes a spot on the entry sheet. The 9/2 morning line offers a slice of value if Blazing Tiger gets caught up in traffic from the rail.

show9BayfrontML 5/2

Bayfront (9) slots in third in our ratings at 57.50 and reunites with Flavien Prat for trainer Miguel Clement — the same barn sending out the favorite. An average speed figure of 55 puts him right in the mix with the top two, and second entries from a sharp outfit often run well when the stable is represented at the top. At 5/2, he's not a value play per se, but a comfortable show-ticket inclusion and a key in your trifectas.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

TrackWiz is unlocking the first three races for all readers today, and there's a clear theme running through them: turf form matters. J'ray's Jewel (Race 1, 4/1 morning line) and Blazing Tiger (Race 2, 2/1) are both operating on the grass, and our ratings peg Blazing Tiger as the highest-rated free pick on the card — a 88.54 score that says he should be tough to beat if he handles the 6½-furlong turf sprint distance. Watch the pace scenario there; a contested early pace could set up a closer perfectly.

Eliminate in Race 3 switches things over to the dirt in an Allowance Optional Claiming mile — a condition that often draws horses dropping down to find easier company, which opens the door for a sharp, fit horse to steal one at a decent price. At 9/2 on the morning line, Eliminate sits in a sweet spot where the value is real without being a complete shot in the dark.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

2:20 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A competitive allowance optional claiming field on the dirt mile, with a hidden value play carrying a strong rating at a double-digit morning line and a pace scenario that could set up for closers.

win6EliminateML 9/2

Eliminate (6) leads our ratings in this field at 81.04, a meaningful gap above the rest, and gets Kendrick Carmouche for trainer Linda Rice — a barn that runs sharp horses at Belmont all meet long. Despite a career win percentage of just 20%, the rating suggests his best efforts have been excellent, and an average speed figure of 54 is consistent with the front-runners in this group. At 9/2 on the morning line, he's not being overbet, and this looks like the right spot for him.

place5Secured LandingML 12/1

Secured Landing (5) is the most interesting value play on the board — rated 73.96 (second-best in the field) yet posted at 12/1 on the morning line. A 45% career win rate is genuinely elite for a horse competing at this level, signaling he shows up when conditions are right. Also from the Linda Rice barn with Jose Lezcano up, he's a strong place-ticket component and a must-use in exactas.

show9Hill RoadML 5/2

Hill Road (9) rates third in the field at 64.41 and gets Manuel Franco, who rarely wastes energy on horses he doesn't think can run. A 12% career win rate and average speed figure of 53 keep him honest, but the 5/2 morning line makes him the public's second choice — indicating there's outside money here too. He's a reliable show anchor and a natural third leg of the trifecta.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 4

2:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A sprawling 14-horse turf claimer at a mile and a sixteenth, where two horses with nearly identical top ratings — both over 79 — set up a fascinating win-exacta battle at very different morning-line prices.

win4Island CharmML 8/1

Island Charm (4) tops our TrackWiz ratings at 79.79 in a deep field and does so at 8/1 on the morning line — making her the best value among the upper tier. Manuel Franco takes the mount for trainer Ilkay Kantarmaci, and an average speed figure of 53 keeps her in range of the pace without burning herself out early. A 10% career win rate is modest, but in a claiming field this full, getting 8/1 on the top-rated horse is a situation you want to capitalize on.

place14Private PropertyML 3/1

Private Property (14) matches Island Charm almost exactly in our ratings at 79.32 and is the morning-line second choice at 3/1 — so the public has identified her correctly. Kendrick Carmouche rides for trainer Michelle Nevin, and her average speed figure of 54 gives her a slight edge on raw pace over our top pick. At the shorter price, she's better deployed in an exacta role rather than as a standalone win bet.

show9Spinning ClassML 7/2

Spinning Class (9) rates third in the field at 72.98 and is trained by Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey, who's consistently one of the sharpest conditioners when placing horses in claiming company. Jose Lezcano rides, and an average speed figure of 54 puts her right with the top contenders. The 7/2 morning line is fair, and in a full field on turf where pace can collapse, having a McGaughey-trained closer in the show spot is smart race construction.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 14 runners

Race 5

3:30 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

A well-assembled allowance field on the dirt mile where our top two picks are separated by just half a rating point — but the one carrying the bigger price has the stronger speed profile and win percentage.

win4Liberty's SecretML 3/1

Liberty's Secret (4) leads our ratings at 77.38 and checks the boxes that matter most in an allowance dirt mile: a 25% career win rate, an average speed figure of 55 (tops in the field), and Dylan Davis in the saddle for trainer Patrick J. Quick. At 3/1 on the morning line, she's fairly priced and doesn't offer huge overlay value, but the combination of the best speed figure and a solid win rate makes her the most complete runner in the field.

place5PerugiaML 10/1

Perugia (5) is the value play at 10/1 with a rating of 76.88 — just a half-point behind Liberty's Secret — and a 29% career win rate that actually exceeds our top pick. Jamie Ness doesn't typically run horses at long odds unless they belong, and an average speed figure of 54 keeps her right in contention. This is the kind of overlay that can anchor a nice exacta payoff if she runs to her rating.

show2Baseball LadyML 8/1

Baseball Lady (2) rates 67.26 and carries a respectable 14% career win rate for trainer Linda Rice with Kendrick Carmouche up — a reliable combination at Belmont. Her average speed figure of 54 matches several rivals, and at 8/1, she's a legitimate exotics piece rather than just a throwaway show bet. If the pace develops favorably, she's the type to sneak into the money.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 6

4:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A wide-open dirt-mile claimer where no horse stands clearly above the rest on ratings — separation is tight across the top four contenders, making pace scenario and jockey savvy the deciding factors.

win5Polar Bear PlungeML 5/2

Polar Bear Plunge (5) leads our ratings at 67.01 and is the morning-line favorite at 5/2, with Ricardo Santana Jr. aboard for trainer Mertkan Kantarmaci. An average speed figure of 53 is consistent with the pack, but Santana's ability to read a pace and find daylight in traffic gives this runner an edge in a bunched field. A 10% career win rate is on the lean side, but in this field, the rating advantage and rider quality make him the best bet.

place9Interlock EmpireML 8/1

Interlock Empire (9) runs just behind the top-rated horses at 66.24 and offers legitimate value at 8/1 on the morning line. Dylan Davis takes the mount for trainer Emron Ibrahim, and an average speed figure of 53 puts him right in the main flow. In a race with compressed ratings at the top, a horse offering nearly 3x the morning-line payout of the favorite — with a nearly identical score — is a prime exacta and place-ticket play.

show11MitwajidML 20/1

Mitwajid (11) is the most intriguing value in the race at 20/1 with a rating of 62.29 and the highest career win rate among our top three picks at 30%. Trainer M. Anthony Ferraro sends him with Luis Raul Rivera Jr., and his average speed figure of 54 actually edges the favorite. The long price likely reflects connections and barn familiarity more than form, and a 30% career win rate is hard to dismiss — he's a must-use in trifectas at that price.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 13 runners

Race 7

4:40 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 7 fur · Turf

A large starter allowance field on the Belmont turf at seven furlongs where the morning-line chalk is not the top-rated horse — creating a genuine overlay at the top of our TrackWiz rankings.

win9Counter MoveML 8/1

Counter Move (9) tops our ratings at 79.79 but is posted at 8/1 on the morning line — a meaningful disconnect from where we think this runner belongs. Samuel Marin takes the mount for trainer George Weaver, who is meticulous in placing horses and rarely enters a runner in a spot it can't handle. An average speed figure of 56 is the joint-highest in this field (tied with Rhyton), and at 8/1, Counter Move is the clearest overlay on the card for Race 7.

place1Coach CaseML 7/2

Coach Case (1) rates second in the field at 76.13 and gets Flavien Prat — one of the best turf riders in North America — for trainer Miguel Clement, who is prominent throughout today's card. An average speed figure of 55 is solid, and an 11% career win rate in what is likely a competitive starter allowance history is respectable. The 7/2 morning line is fair, and with Prat's rail awareness, the inside post could be an asset rather than a liability.

show14RhytonML 6/1

Rhyton (14) ties Counter Move for the field's top average speed figure at 57 and rates third overall at 72.99. Also trained by Miguel Clement, with Manuel Franco up, this is a barn putting in two serious entries — and often the second runner from a sharp stable is the one flying under the radar. At 6/1, there's a touch of value here, and the field's best raw speed number gives him legitimate win upside on top of show security.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 14 runners

Race 8

5:15 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Turf

A deep 15-horse maiden claiming turf sprint with three horses bunched tightly between ratings of 78 and 85 — expect this race to sort itself out in the stretch, and the exotics could pay handsomely.

win11Eye On the BallML 9/2

Eye On the Ball (11) leads the field with a TrackWiz rating of 84.90 — the highest of any runner in Race 8 — and posts a field-best average speed figure of 56. Trained by Chris J. Englehart with Jose Lezcano in the irons, this is an experienced combination that knows how to get maiden turf sprinters into position. At 9/2 on the morning line, the odds are fair for the top-rated horse, and in a field this large, a clear rating advantage carries real weight.

place5MykonosML 5/1

Mykonos (5) rates 79.84 — just a tick behind Eye On the Ball — and brings Manuel Franco aboard for trainer Keri Brion, a conditioner with a strong reputation for turf development. An average speed figure of 56 matches our top pick, meaning the separation between first and second in our model is paper-thin. At 5/1, Mykonos is a natural place-ticket horse and the kind of runner who can steal the show if Eye On the Ball gets shuffled in a big field.

show7My Munny TalksML 7/2

My Munny Talks (7) rates 78.25 — third in this field and separated from the top two by less than two points — and draws Flavien Prat for trainer Charlton Baker. An average speed figure of 54 is a step below the top pair, but Prat's tactical excellence on turf often compensates for that gap. At 7/2 on the morning line, he's actually the shortest price among our top three, reflecting public confidence, and he's a must-include in any trifecta or superfecta coverage.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 15 runners

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A warm, turf-friendly Thursday at Belmont with eight races and legitimate value scattered throughout — Blazing Tiger and J'ray's Jewel lead the free selections, and Eliminate gives the dirt bettors something to chew on early. If you want the full card — pace projections, longshot angles on Counter Move and Island Charm, and complete exotic ticket structures — that's all available to TrackWiz subscribers. Check out our pricing page to unlock the full card. Good luck out there.

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