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Belmont Park Picks & Predictions — September 20, 2026

September 20, 20269 racesAll Belmont Park picks

It's a warm one at Belmont Park today — 88°F under partly cloudy skies, with the big track looking fast and the turf courses expected to be in solid shape after a dry stretch. Nine races are on the board, and this card has a little something for every kind of player: maiden sprints, a starter allowance, a claiming puzzle or two, and a turf Stakes as the marquee event.

Five of the nine races hit the lawn, so turf form is going to matter all afternoon. Keep that in mind when handicapping — horses that have shown any feel for a firm turf course are going to be worth a second look today, especially in some of the maiden events where surfaces can really sort out a field.

Three races are free for every TrackWiz user, giving you a solid foundation to build your card. The full nine-race breakdown — including multi-race sequences and exotic ticket construction — is available to subscribers. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:10 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Chad Brown sends out a pair of first-time starters and lands the two shortest prices on the board, making this maiden special weight feel like a two-horse race before they even load in the gate.

win6Hadrian's WallML 9/5

Hadrian's Wall draws our top rating by a wide margin at 88.83 — nearly 30 points clear of the next rival — and Chad Brown's barn has a well-documented knack for debuting winners going long on the dirt at Belmont. Manuel Franco takes the mount, a rider who knows how to get a green horse relaxed early over 1 1/16 miles. At 9/5 morning line this isn't a value play, but the TrackWiz rating says he's the class of this field and we're not arguing.

place2Evenly AlertML 6/1

Evenly Alert is the sneaky value in the exacta at 6/1 on the morning line. Linda Rice has quietly been effective with first-time starters, and Ricardo Santana Jr. aboard keeps this horse very much in play. The TrackWiz rating of 62.02 is the second-best in the field, and an avg speed of 53 gives her a baseline to build from.

show8Collado HuecoML 2/1

Collado Hueco is the other Brown entry and merits inclusion in your exotics at 2/1. Flavien Prat gets the call and he rarely wastes a mount, especially for a trainer of Brown's caliber. A TrackWiz rating of 58.33 and avg speed figure of 54 slot him firmly in the mix for a piece of this, even if his stablemate takes the top spot.

Race 2

5:47 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

A wide-open maiden turf mile with ten runners and no clear standout on class — the kind of race where a sharp price and a trainer hot with grass maidens can outrun the morning line.

win4ArequipeML 8/1

Arequipe is the most intriguing profile in the field and TrackWiz has him rated 79.79 — a full 24 points ahead of the next rival. Javier Castellano's turf record speaks for itself, and Antonio Sano has a solid history developing European-style types who prefer a one-turn mile on the grass. An avg speed of 54 gives Arequipe real ammunition, and at 8/1 on the morning line there's genuine overlay potential here.

place1BroadcastML 7/2

Broadcast opens as the 7/2 morning-line favorite for a reason — Manuel Franco gets the rail, and Miguel Clement is a crafty conditioner who fits horses to spots methodically. The TrackWiz rating of 55.83 leads the top-rated favorites cluster, and an avg speed of 52 suggests there's upside if Clement's prep work shows up on debut over the turf.

show7SuspendML 9/2

Suspend at 9/2 offers a nice each-way profile with Junior Alvarado up for the Mott barn. William Mott rarely wastes a talented jockey on a hopeless turf maiden, and a TrackWiz rating of 54.17 with an avg speed of 53 puts him right in the thick of the pace scenario. He fits neatly in trifecta coverage as a horse who can close into soft fractions.

Race 3

6:22 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

Dia Por Dia brings a dominant 66% career win rate into a starter allowance field that looks like it was drawn up specifically to test her — she's the class standout, but A.P. Slingshot and Our Preferred Pal won't give her a free lead.

win1Dia Por DiaML 5/2

Dia Por Dia is as close to a lock as you'll find in a TrackWiz preview — a 66% career win rate is extraordinary for any horse at any level, and her TrackWiz rating of 87.81 towers over this starter allowance field. Jose Lezcano gets the call from the rail, and at 7 1/2 furlongs on the dirt, her avg speed of 54 should translate perfectly to this distance. The 5/2 morning line feels fair; she's simply a cut above these rivals on paper.

place4A. P. SlingshotML 5/1

A.P. Slingshot is our value play underneath at 5/1. Manuel Franco in the irons is a significant upgrade angle, and Bruce Levine's barn does solid work at this class level. The TrackWiz rating of 75.28 is the second-best in the field, and a 15% career win rate shows he knows how to get to the wire first — he just needs Dia Por Dia to stumble.

show3Our Preferred PalML 4/1

Our Preferred Pal fits the show spot as a capable closer who can pick up pieces in a pace-contested race. Ruben Silvera keeps the ride, and Chris Englehart's 5% career win rate for this horse may seem modest, but the TrackWiz rating of 66.74 is third-best and the avg speed of 53 is right in the pack. In a field where the top three are genuinely bunched in the middle, he's a reasonable trifecta fill.

Our three free best bets today span two surfaces and three distinct race conditions, and they're connected by a common thread: TrackWiz analysis identified horses who look priced right or even undervalued given their figures and form. Race 1 opens the card on dirt with Hadrian's Wall drawing most of the attention at 9/5 on the morning line — a strong rating of 88.83 backs up the hype. Race 2 shifts to the turf for a maiden mile, and that's where we think the real value hides: Arequipe goes postward at 8/1 with a 79.79 TrackWiz rating that suggests the morning line may be underestimating this one's chances on the lawn. Race 3's starter allowance at 7½ furlongs on dirt is anchored by Dia Por Dia at 5/2 — a horse our model likes at that price in a field where the pace scenario should set up favorably.

With the heat sitting at 88°F, hydration and late-race stamina could be factors, particularly in the longer dirt routes. Horses that can rate off the pace and kick in the stretch get an extra look from us on days like this.

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Race 4

6:57 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

An eleven-horse claiming sprint with legitimate pace heat at the top and several horses posting speed figures close enough to make the outcome genuinely uncertain — this is a race built for exotic players.

win3ShattuckML 5/1

Shattuck tops our TrackWiz ratings at 80.59 and gets Flavien Prat in the saddle, one of the best big-race riders in the business. Joe Sharp's operation travels horses smartly, and when Prat picks up a mount in a claiming sprint, it's worth paying attention. An avg speed of 54 is right in the pack but the superior rating says Shattuck finds another gear when asked at the top of the stretch.

place4SalmingML 8/1

Salming is our value play at 8/1 morning line — a TrackWiz rating of 75.55 and avg speed of 55 put him among the fastest horses in this field on raw numbers. Rudy Rodriguez knows this class level inside and out at Belmont, and a 14% career win rate shows Salming is no stranger to getting his nose in front. He's a legitimate overlay in exacta combinations.

show9Tapwrits TemperML 8/1

Tapwrits Temper rounds out the show position with Manuel Franco aboard for Richard Dutrow Jr., a trainer who has always been dangerous in dirt sprints. The TrackWiz rating of 73.66 is fourth-best in the field and the avg speed of 54 is consistent enough to hit the board. At 8/1, he's a useful trifecta piece if the pace scenario collapses on the front-runners.

Race 5

7:32 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 7 fur · Turf

A sprawling fourteen-horse maiden claiming turf sprint — the kind of chaotic grass scramble where early position is everything and the top-rated horse sticking out at 4/1 looks like the value anchor in a volatile field.

win11Arabian PowerML 4/1

Arabian Power is the standout with a TrackWiz rating of 85.62 — more than 14 points clear of the next rival in a big, messy field. Brad Cox is one of the premier trainers in the country and his horses routinely outperform morning lines, especially on the grass. Joel Rosario takes the mount and his turf record speaks for itself; an avg speed of 55 gives Arabian Power a legitimate edge over most of this field. At 4/1, this is a genuine value play, not just a chalk play.

place2PerrettiML 5/2

Perretti opens as the 5/2 favorite and has Ricardo Santana Jr. in the irons — a combination that demands respect in any field. The TrackWiz rating of 71.07 is second-best in the race, and an avg speed of 55 matches up with the top contenders. Philip Antonacci tends to fit his horses to spots carefully, and on a turf sprint where positioning matters, Perretti is a safe place-ticket anchor.

show7Turbo LaunchML 15/1

Turbo Launch is our longshot show play at 15/1 — the TrackWiz rating of 56.9 is actually the third-best in the field, which makes this morning line a potential overlay. Kendrick Carmouche is a crafty grass pilot who maximizes ground-saving trips, and Joe Sharp's barn has a history of sneaking horses into the money in wide-open grass sprints. At 15/1, even a small show bet on this horse in trifectas makes the ticket much more profitable.

Race 6

8:07 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Turf

Sixteen runners go to post in a maiden turf sprint that looks like a lottery on paper — but Freedom Charge separates himself from the chaos with a rating advantage that's hard to ignore in a field this deep.

win8Freedom ChargeML 9/2

Freedom Charge carries the best TrackWiz rating in the race at 69.9 and gets John Velazquez, whose turf record at Belmont is elite. Steven Asmussen sends this horse out with serious intent — big barns don't put Hall of Fame jockeys on hopeless maidens. An avg speed of 54 is competitive in this field, and in a 16-horse sprint where pace will be a factor, Velazquez's ability to find cover and emerge late is a significant advantage.

place5Fierce HopeML 7/2

Fierce Hope gets Manuel Franco for Miguel Clement and opens at 7/2 — a morning line that reflects genuine respect from the oddsmaker. The TrackWiz rating of 55.83 is second-best in the field, making her a natural exacta partner with the top pick. Clement's barn is dialed in with turf maidens and Franco's positioning skills in a wide, contentious sprint should keep her in a clean trip.

show14Fire MarshalML 6/1

Fire Marshal at 6/1 shows an avg speed of 56 — the highest in this entire field — and gets Flavien Prat, who is rarely handed a bad turf mount. Michael Maker is a trainer who spots horses shrewdly, and the TrackWiz rating of 51.67 may undersell what the raw speed figure is telling us. In a 16-horse maiden sprint where pace could collapse, a horse with elite speed figures finishing strongly is exactly the kind of show play that pays.

Race 7

8:42 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Sunday Boy's top rating creates a clear hierarchy in this allowance optional claiming field, but Long Pour's big avg speed figure and Prat in the irons makes the exacta more interesting than the morning line suggests.

win3Sunday BoyML 7/2

Sunday Boy is the standout at 86.35 on TrackWiz's scale — a gap of more than 14 points over Long Pour, the second-rated horse. Jose Lezcano rides a horse with an 18% career win rate, which translates to consistent competitiveness at this level, and the avg speed of 55 is among the best in the field. At 7/2, the morning line reflects respect, but TrackWiz's data suggests he may still be undervalued given the rating advantage.

place7Long PourML 4/1

Long Pour is the most compelling pace threat in the race with an avg speed of 56 — the highest figure in the field by a full point. Flavien Prat on board for Richard Dutrow Jr. is a combination that routinely fires in these allowance spots, and a 16% career win rate shows Long Pour knows how to compete. If he gets a soft early pace, he could be very difficult to run down.

show1Shadow DragonML 6/1

Shadow Dragon rounds out the ticket at 6/1 with Manuel Franco aboard for Fernando Abreu. The TrackWiz rating of 65.26 is third-best in the field and a 15% career win rate is respectable for an allowance runner. Shadow Dragon figures to be comfortable rating off the pace and Franco is the kind of rider who extracts every inch out of a horse in the final furlong — a solid show-position hedge.

Race 8

9:17 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A stakes showdown on the turf sets up as a clash between two genuine class horses — Destino d'Oro and Oversubscribed — with Dynamic Pricing lurking as the Chad Brown secondary threat that could spoil the party.

win4Destino d'OroML 2/1

Destino d'Oro is the top-rated horse in the race at 88.54 and carries a jaw-dropping 66% career win rate, the kind of number that screams elite competitor. Brad Cox sends this horse out with Junior Alvarado up, and Cox has established himself as one of the best big-race trainers in the country. The avg speed of 54 is in line with the field, but this is a horse whose record suggests he elevates when the moment matters — he's our confident top selection.

place1OversubscribedML 7/2

Oversubscribed at 7/2 makes a compelling case as the most dangerous rival in the field. Flavien Prat rides for Chad Brown, a trainer who rarely enters a stakes without a legitimate shot, and a 33% career win rate shows Oversubscribed converts regularly at the top level. The TrackWiz rating of 85.07 is second in the race and barely trails the top pick — this could easily go the other way if the pace sets up differently.

show7Dynamic PricingML 5/2

Dynamic Pricing gives the Chad Brown barn a second live weapon and Manuel Franco picks up the mount. A TrackWiz rating of 72.38 is third in the field and a 33% career win rate matches Oversubscribed's conversion rate at stakes level. This is a horse that benefits from being overlooked with two barn-mates drawing more attention — at 5/2 on the morning line, he's not a longshot, but he's a smart trifecta include for anyone keying the top two.

Race 9

9:52 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

Ganderella enters as the clear TrackWiz top-rated runner in a maiden turf route at 1 1/8 miles, with Felixyn as the most credible challenger and a wide-open race behind them for exotic plays.

win1GanderellaML 7/2

Ganderella leads this field with a TrackWiz rating of 84.69 and gets Flavien Prat — a rider who has an exceptional record in turf routes at Belmont. John Terranova II doesn't get much national attention but is a sharp conditioner at this level, and this looks like a well-timed spot. The 7/2 morning line is fair, and Prat's ability to settle a horse over the unique Belmont grass layout at a mile and an eighth is a genuine competitive edge.

place7FelixynML 4/1

Felixyn is the horse to beat for second at 4/1, with a TrackWiz rating of 70.62 that's clearly a cut above the rest of the field behind Ganderella. Dylan Davis keeps the mount for Thomas Morley, and an avg speed of 54 gives Felixyn actual firepower heading into the stretch. If Ganderella gets into any trouble in a ten-horse field, Felixyn has the profile to capitalize and win outright.

show4Lyn's LegacyML 3/1

Lyn's Legacy opens at 3/1 and figures to attract heavy public support, which makes her worth including as a show hedge. Manuel Franco for Miguel Clement is a pairing that regularly fires on the Belmont turf, and the TrackWiz rating of 56.67 is third-best in the field. An avg speed of 53 is modest but Clement typically has his horses fit and ready at this distance — she's a reliable trifecta fill if the top two run as expected.

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Nine races, five on the turf, and a warm September afternoon at Belmont — it's a card that rewards preparation. Hadrian's Wall in Race 1, Arequipe as a live longshot in Race 2, and Dia Por Dia in Race 3 are your free best bets to start the day. For the full card — including the Stakes race, pace breakdowns, and exotic ticket strategy — it's all waiting for subscribers. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart.

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