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Belmont Park Picks & Predictions — September 19, 2026

September 19, 202610 racesAll Belmont Park picks

Belmont Park is back open for business on a warm, overcast Saturday — 83°F at post time with cloud cover keeping things comfortable out on the apron. Ten races spread across dirt and turf give us plenty to work with, and the mix of maiden specials, claiming battles, and a turf stakes finale makes this a card worth playing top to bottom.

The turf courses figure to be the center of attention today. Five of the ten races are run on the grass, capped by a stakes showdown at 6 furlongs in Race 9 where our TrackWiz analysis has flagged morning-line longshot Leslie's Humor at 5/1 as the top selection. More on that below for subscribers — but trust us, it's worth the look.

Whether you're hitting a few singles or constructing multi-race sequences, today's card has angles at every price point. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:05 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

A compact five-horse maiden field at a mile on the dirt, with William Mott saddling two of the five entrants and holding a clear tactical edge over the competition.

win3GrovesML 2/1

Groves (#3) tops our TrackWiz ratings at 58.33 and is the lone horse in the field with a recorded average speed figure of 54, giving him a measurable edge over the debut unknowns. William Mott is one of the sharpest trainers in the game when introducing horses at classic distances on dirt, and pairing him with Junior Alvarado — a jockey who thrives at the mile trip — makes this a hard combo to fade. At 2/1 on the morning line, the market agrees, but the data backs it up.

place2Expiration DateML 3/1

Expiration Date (#2) carries a solid 56.67 rating and draws the services of Ricardo Santana Jr., who consistently delivers sharp performances for Chad Brown's barn. Brown's maiden runners at Belmont tend to be well-prepared, and in a field with plenty of unknowns, the trainer edge here is real. A placing looks very achievable.

show4Gun BrokerML 3/1

Gun Broker (#4) matches Expiration Date's rating of 56.67 with Joel Rosario in the irons, adding another quality pilot to the mix. In a maiden sprint where experience gaps between horses can be subtle, having a proven big-race jockey gives Gun Broker a legitimate shot to hit the board at 3/1.

Race 2

4:40 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Turf

Boston's Phinest dominates the ratings in this turf allowance optional claimer, but a pair of perfect-record horses and a Chad Brown second stringer make the race more nuanced than the morning line suggests.

win2Boston's PhinestML 2/1

Boston's Phinest (#2) is the standout here, posting an 88.54 TrackWiz rating that towers over the field. With an average speed figure of 58 and a 28% career win rate, this one has the profile of a horse who consistently shows up — and Antonio Fresu is overdue for a big moment in a spot like this. The 2/1 morning line makes this one of the more justifiable chalk plays on the card.

place1AlyeskaML 5/1

Alyeska (#1) brings a 40% career win rate into this spot, which is among the best in the field and speaks to a horse who knows how to close the deal. Chad Brown conditions her off a 67.85 rating with an average speed of 55, and Dylan Davis is a capable hand on the grass. At 5/1, there's solid each-way value here.

show4Filly FreedomML 10/1

Filly Freedom (#4) is the TrackWiz value play at 10/1 morning line, rating out at 63.03 — third best in the field. Chad Brown running two horses in the same race usually means one of them is live, and Filly Freedom's 28% career win rate tells you she's no stranger to the winner's circle. She's worth a spot in your exotics at that price.

Race 3

5:15 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 7 fur · Turf

A deep nine-horse turf allowance optional claimer with a contested pace scenario shaping up, and two high-rated closers lurking just off a pace that could collapse.

win4Ice ChocolatML 5/1

Ice Chocolat (#4) tops the field with a 83.52 TrackWiz rating and brings a 56 average speed figure over the seven-furlong turf trip. Linda Rice does solid work with turf route types at Belmont, and Kendrick Carmouche has the tactical awareness to sit just off a contested pace and pounce. At 5/1 on the morning line, this is a legitimate best-bet candidate.

place8Final VerdictML 6/1

Final Verdict (#8) is right on Ice Chocolat's heels with a 82.71 rating and matches on average speed at 57. Antonio Fresu is quietly one of the more underrated grass riders in the New York colony, and at 6/1, the price reflects a horse that the market may be undervaluing relative to the data. The similar rating to our top pick means the exacta between these two is worth serious consideration.

show2Fond FarewellML 9/2

Fond Farewell (#2) boasts a 50% career win rate — easily the best in this field — and rates out at 74.54 with an average speed of 56. Ricardo Santana Jr. is a dangerous pilot when pointing at a turf route, and a horse who wins half the time it runs is never a bad show-ticket inclusion.

We're giving every reader a head start with three free race previews today. Race 1 sends a maiden field going a flat mile on the dirt, where Groves opens as the 2/1 morning-line favorite and carries a TrackWiz rating of 58.33 — a competitive mark in a wide-open maiden field. Race 2 shifts things to the turf for an Allowance Optional Claiming sprint at 6½ furlongs, and Boston's Phinest is the one to beat at 2/1 with an 88.54 rating — one of the stronger scores on the card. Race 3 stays on the lawn for a 7-furlong AOC where Ice Chocolat catches our eye at 5/1 on the morning line. That's a price worth respecting when our model grades the horse this well.

The early pace picture on the turf looks like it could favor closers with the humidity sitting in and a soft-surface bias that often rewards horses who can roll late at Belmont. Keep that in mind as you build your tickets for Races 2 and 3 — horses who can settle off a contested pace and finish through the lane are the ones we're leaning toward in the free plays today.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

5:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Red State looms as a heavy class standout in this dirt claimer, but Kid Billy and Uncle Jim give the race enough depth to make the exotics interesting.

win9Red StateML 8/5

Red State (#9) is simply in a different tier here — a 89.12 TrackWiz rating, 30% career win percentage, and the backing of William Mott's barn make this one of the most clear-cut top picks on today's card. Jose Lezcano gets the mount and knows this track better than just about anyone. The 8/5 morning line is short, but the form and trainer angle justify the favoritism.

place7Kid BillyML 8/1

Kid Billy (#7) is the most intriguing price play in this race at 8/1, rating out at 71.00 — second best in the field by a wide margin. Antonio Fresu handles the mount for Rudy Rodriguez, and a 23% career win rate means this horse has shown it can beat horses at this level. If Red State faces any trouble early, Kid Billy is the horse most likely to steal the show.

show4Uncle JimML 5/1

Uncle Jim (#4) rates third best in the field at 58.82 and Dylan Davis takes over the reins for Rob Atras. A 16% career win rate in claiming company isn't flashy, but at 5/1 he's capable of a placing, especially if the pace gets hot up front and opens up the rail for a late-running type.

Race 5

6:25 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Turf

Titan Ready is a commanding favorite in this eleven-horse maiden turf sprint, but the wide-open bottom half of the field creates real opportunities for exotics at generous prices.

win8Titan ReadyML 2/1

Titan Ready (#8) is the most dominant rating in the race at 88.54 — a full 33 points clear of the second pick — and Brad Cox is one of the elite trainers in the country when it comes to debuting well-regarded maidens. An average speed figure of 56 over the turf sprint distance is encouraging, and Samuel Marin gives this one a professional pilot to keep things clean. The 2/1 morning line is deserved.

place5River of DeceitML 7/2

River of Deceit (#5) profiles as the best alternative to Titan Ready, rating at 55.83 with the highest average speed in the field at 57. Junior Alvarado is an underrated grass rider, and Thomas Morley does solid quiet work with turf maidens at Belmont. At 7/2, the place price figures to offer genuine value if the favorite is as good as advertised.

show11Con's the ManML 6/1

Con's the Man (#11) checks in at 51.67 on the TrackWiz scale and arrives from the barn of Brendan Walsh, who has a knack for presenting first-timers and lightly-raced types ready to run. Antonio Fresu is a strong grass jockey, and at 6/1 on the morning line, this is the kind of value ticket you slot into your show parlays.

Race 6

7:00 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

A sprawling sixteen-horse maiden turf mile is a puzzle, but Equilibrate emerges as the class of the field with a clear trainer advantage courtesy of Chad Brown.

win7EquilibrateML 3/1

Equilibrate (#7) leads all runners with a 56.67 rating in what is otherwise a muddled field of lightly-raced maidens. Chad Brown's grass program is among the most respected in the country, and a recorded average speed of 54 gives Equilibrate a traceable baseline when many rivals have nothing on the clock. Jose Lezcano handles the mount, and 3/1 is a fair morning line price for a horse with this pedigree of connections.

place10Captain GeorgeML 5/1

Captain George (#10) holds a 53.33 rating and has a 53 average speed — modest but useful in a field where most runners are unknown quantities. Ricardo Santana Jr. brings star power to Amelia J. Green's barn, and in a field this large, having a live jockey on a horse with some form is a legitimate place-ticket edge at 5/1.

show11Island PalML 6/1

Island Pal (#11) rates 51.67 and comes out of Mark Casse's barn, which has a strong track record developing turf horses at classic Belmont distances. Kendrick Carmouche is a savvy Belmont rail specialist who knows how to navigate big fields. At 6/1, Island Pal is a defensible show play in a wide-open race.

Race 7

7:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Special Ops is the clear top-rated horse in this eleven-horse dirt claiming sprint, but Majestic Arc is a major price play lurking with a quietly elite rating.

win7Special OpsML 3/1

Special Ops (#7) is the TrackWiz top choice at 87.08 — the highest rating in the field and nearly 14 points clear of the next-best. Rob Atras does efficient work with dirt sprint types at Belmont, and Dylan Davis is a consistent performer at this level. The 3/1 morning line makes this one of the stronger value-to-probability matchups on the card.

place4Majestic ArcML 10/1

Majestic Arc (#4) is today's most interesting price play — a 73.61 rating (second best in the race) at a 10/1 morning line that seems wildly out of step with the data. Trainer Lolita Shivmangal is low-profile, but the rating doesn't lie, and Katie Davis is a capable hand in these spots. This one warrants an exacta spot underneath Special Ops.

show3UnauthorizedML 4/1

Unauthorized (#3) checks in at 63.45 with a 55 average speed figure and Ricardo Santana Jr. in the irons — arguably the best jockey in the field from a pure talent standpoint. Rodolphe Brisset is a sharp conditioner who rarely sends horses into claiming sprints without intent. At 4/1, this is a solid show-ticket hedge.

Race 8

8:10 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

The allowance mile on dirt presents no clear cut favorite — Chief Wallabee opens at even money, but our TrackWiz ratings tell a different story with Freddie B topping the chart.

win7Freddie BML 4/1

Freddie B (#7) leads all comers with a 73.78 TrackWiz rating and shows a 33% career win rate — well above average for an allowance field. Kenneth McPeek fields competitive horses at this level regularly, and Rajiv Maragh brings valuable dirt mile experience. At 4/1 morning line, Freddie B is a genuine overlay relative to his rating advantage over the morning-line favorite.

place1Chief WallabeeML EVN

Chief Wallabee (#1) opens at even money, which tells you the public is going to load up on him, but our rating of 69.79 ranks him second in the field — a legitimate contender but not a runaway top pick. William Mott conditions him, which is always a plus, and Junior Alvarado is a reliable front-end pilot. The place slot feels like where this horse lands if Freddie B fires.

show5CocktailsnkringleML 15/1

Cocktailsnkringle (#5) is the live longshot of the race, rating at 69.58 — just a hair behind Chief Wallabee — while going off at a projected 15/1 morning line. That's a massive disconnect between price and rating. Antonio Fresu handles the mount for Steven Schauer, and with a 54 average speed in a field where figures are tightly bunched, this one is a must-use in trifectas.

Race 9

8:45 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Turf

A full twelve-horse turf stakes at six furlongs delivers one of the most competitive races on the card, with several horses grouped tightly in both ratings and speed figures.

win10Leslie's HumorML 5/1

Leslie's Humor (#10) tops our TrackWiz ratings at 82.24 with a 40% career win rate and a sharp 58 average speed figure on the turf. Chad Brown sends this one out with Dylan Davis — a jockey who excels in turf sprints — and the combination of elite trainer, top jockey, and strong numbers makes this a confident top selection. At 5/1, the morning line offers reasonable value in what figures to be a competitive betting race.

place11Highway HarmonyML 5/1

Highway Harmony (#11) rates at 70.02 with a 57 average speed and a 28% career win rate — solid credentials for a stakes sprint on grass. Edgard Zayas is a dependable pilot for Amelia Green's barn, and at 5/1, this one is priced identically to Leslie's Humor despite a meaningful rating gap, making the exacta an attractive wager.

show3CapturingML 15/1

Capturing (#3) is the TrackWiz value call in the show slot at 15/1 morning line, rating at 69.58 with a 33% career win rate and an average speed of 57 — numbers that suggest a horse running at or near peak form. Todd Pletcher rarely enters stakes races without intent, and Ricardo Santana Jr. is one of the most dangerous riders in the country in a short-field sprint scenario. At that price, Capturing is a must-use in your trifecta.

Race 10

9:20 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

The closing maiden claiming turf route looks like a three-horse battle at the top, with Bourboncentric, Emotionlyavailble, and Big Frosty separating themselves from a deep but otherwise ordinary field.

win7BourboncentricML 4/1

Bourboncentric (#7) leads the TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 and brings an average speed of 54 over the 1 1/8-mile turf route — a distance that often suits horses with a staying pedigree. Thomas Morley has been quietly effective with turf route maidens at Belmont, and Ricardo Santana Jr. is an inspired booking. At 4/1 on the morning line, this is an overlay relative to the rating, and TrackWiz identifies him as the top pick in the race.

place2EmotionlyavailbleML 2/1

Emotionlyavailble (#2) is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 with a 81.60 rating and a 54 average speed for Brad Cox — one of the most statistically reliable trainers in the country when it comes to maiden turf routes. Samuel Marin gets the call and has shown the ability to rate horses over a distance of ground. The rating and connections make this a deserving public choice, even if Bourboncentric represents the better value.

show4Big FrostyML 5/2

Big Frosty (#4) checks in at 78.60 — third best in the field — with Joel Rosario aboard for Todd Pletcher, a combination that rarely shows up in maiden claiming company without being spotted favorably. At 5/2, he's solidly priced, and a 53 average speed in a 1 1/8-mile turf route suggests he has the stamina to hold a placing.

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Bottom line on today's card: Boston's Phinest and Red State stand out as the two highest-rated selections on the TrackWiz model, and Ice Chocolat at 5/1 in Race 3 is the kind of value play that can set the tone for a profitable afternoon. For the full picture — stakes race breakdown, pace projections, and exotic ticket strategy — it's all waiting for subscribers. Good luck out there, and may the board be in your favor.

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