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Assiniboia Picks & Predictions — September 23, 2026

September 23, 20268 racesAll Assiniboia picks

It's a cool, overcast Wednesday at Assiniboia Downs — 65°F under cloudy skies — and the track is serving up a full 8-race all-dirt card to close out a late-September afternoon. Conditions look stable, and that kind of consistent surface tends to reward horses who can dictate their own pace rather than those relying on a soft setup.

Today's card leans heavy on the claiming ranks, with a pair of standout exceptions: an Allowance Optional Claiming route in Race 4 and a Maiden Special Weight sprint in Race 5 that should give us a genuine look at some younger talent. Eight races, plenty of angles, and a few spots where the TrackWiz model is feeling confident.

Three races are open to everyone today, and we've got five more locked and loaded for subscribers. Whether you're playing a few tickets or building a full-card multi-race sequence, there's plenty to dig into here.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:30 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The top of the card features a clear class standout versus a morning-line favorite, with a deep field that thins out quickly once you get past the top three in our ratings.

win3DelvecchioML 9/5

Delvecchio tops our TrackWiz ratings at 88.83 and draws the rails with Javaniel R. Patterson aboard, a combination that's hard to argue against in a 5.5-furlong dirt sprint. Trainer Tom Gardipy, Jr. also saddles Rags Royal Prinz in this race, but the numbers tell you which one he's counting on. Delvecchio's average speed of 53 leads a cluster of horses at that figure, and when combined with the superior rating, he looks like the right call at 9/5 morning line.

place1Gun PowderML 2/1

Gun Powder opens at 2/1 on the morning line and carries a TrackWiz rating of 79.44, making him a legitimate threat to hit the board even if Delvecchio runs him down late. Christopher Roy Mamdeen gets the call, and a 16% career win rate in this kind of field is nothing to dismiss. He's the natural place ticket anchor in a race where the top two in our ratings are well separated from the rest.

show2Oregon CountyML 10/1

Oregon County is the longshot angle at 10/1, but his 22% career win rate is actually the highest in this field — that's the kind of hidden form line that can catch bettors off guard. Damario Bynoe takes the mount, and at 55.64 in our ratings, Oregon County is close enough to the mid-pack speed figures to sneak into the exotics. At double-digit odds, he's worth a small show bet and a slice of any wide exacta.

Race 2

1:00 AM EDT

Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

Race 2 looks like a heavy-favorite situation over 7.5 furlongs, but the secondary market is genuinely competitive with three horses bunched between ratings of 63 and 68.

win3Lt. NormML 4/5

Lt. Norm is the clear class of this field with a near-perfect TrackWiz rating of 90.00 — the highest single-race number we've seen on today's card. He's sent off at 4/5 on the morning line, and Christopher Roy Mamdeen is a confident jockey choice for trainer Sherri Leanne Laing. The average speed of 53 matches the best in the field, and the 7.5-furlong distance should suit a horse carrying this kind of rating. He's short, but he's earned it.

place7Free MakerML 9/2

Free Maker at 9/2 brings a TrackWiz rating of 67.45 and represents genuine value if you're looking to beat the favorite in exactas. Antonio Whitehall rides for Fred Rawson, and with a 12% career win rate, Free Maker has shown the ability to fire on occasion. He sits just above Side Street Dave in our ratings, and at nearly 5-1, the exacta with Lt. Norm on top could pay handsomely.

show4Side Street DaveML 6/1

Side Street Dave slots into our show position with a 63.88 rating and a 9% career win rate — not flashy, but he holds up well against this mid-pack group. Nathan Haar pilots him for Bruce Sanderson, and the average speed of 53 ties for best in the field alongside Lt. Norm. In a race where the top horse is a heavy chalk, the show pool on a 6/1 morning-liner like Side Street Dave could offer real value for conservative bettors.

Race 3

1:25 AM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A two-horse battle on paper, with Sherlyn Go Go and Hardly Mischievous miles ahead of the rest on our ratings — but Neighneigh's 27% career win rate adds a sneaky third dimension at 6/1.

win4Sherlyn Go GoML 7/5

Sherlyn Go Go is a strong win selection at 7/5, posting a TrackWiz rating of 89.42 and bringing an impressive 28% career win rate into the gate. Kerron Khelawan is a capable rider, and trainer Wendy Anderson appears to have this horse pointed squarely at today's 7-furlong dirt sprint. The combo of top rating and top win percentage in the field is a rare alignment — this is as clean a win pick as you'll find on today's card.

place7Hardly MischievousML 5/2

Hardly Mischievous comes in at 5/2 with an 82.64 rating and draws Rachaad Knights for trainer Lise Pruitt. The 18% career win rate is solid without being elite, and the gap between this horse and the rest of the field outside of Sherlyn Go Go is substantial. If there's any scenario where Sherlyn Go Go gets in trouble or sets a torrid early pace, Hardly Mischievous is the most logical beneficiary.

show3NeighneighML 6/1

Neighneigh at 6/1 is the intriguing show play here — a 27% career win rate is second-best in this field, suggesting real ability that may not be fully reflected in the morning line. Antonio Whitehall rides for Demetris Topouzis, and the 7-furlong distance over dirt gives a horse with this kind of win pedigree a chance to find rhythm. Drop him into your trifecta bottom and let the two chalk horses sort out the top spots.

Our three free best bets today span the early portion of the card and cover a nice range of distances on the dirt. Delvecchio opens the day in Race 1 at 5½ furlongs — a morning line of 9/5 and an 88.83 TrackWiz rating make this a solid foundation play. In Race 2, Lt. Norm is the one to beat at 4/5, and that kind of heavy chalk doesn't scare us here — the 90.0 rating is the top mark on the entire card, and at 7½ furlongs there's room for the race to develop in his favor. Sherlyn Go Go rounds out the free picks in Race 3, popping at 7/5 over a flat mile in the claiming ranks.

One thread connecting all three: on a stable, cool-weather dirt surface like we're seeing today, pace control tends to hold up. Watch how these horses break from the gate — the cool temps and overcast conditions often mean the surface plays fair and honest, which is exactly the environment where a horse with a clear tactical edge can go wire to wire.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

1:50 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Stepping up to allowance-optional claiming company at 1 1/16 miles, this race has a credible even-money favorite but also features Omaha Warrior as a big-price threat with a 30% career win rate that demands respect.

win1Jacks Spring BreakML EVN

Jacks Spring Break opens at even money and tops our TrackWiz ratings at 80.71 for trainer Jared Brown, with Kerron Khelawan in the irons. An 18% career win rate is modest, but the rating advantage over this field is meaningful at the route distance. Brown has been active on today's card and appears to be running horses in form — Jacks Spring Break looks like his best chance on the day.

place3Omaha WarriorML 8/1

Omaha Warrior is the place play that jumps off the page at 8/1 — a 30% career win rate is the third-highest in today's entire card, and that's not a number you ignore at those odds. Antonio Whitehall rides for Monique Goulet, and the 75.88 TrackWiz rating puts this horse well within striking distance at the longer 1 1/16 mile trip. Route racing rewards horses who can rate off pace, and a 30% winner has likely learned to do exactly that.

show2Mr JawsML 3/1

Mr Jaws sits at 3/1 on the morning line with a 65.07 rating and a 21% career win rate — Christopher Roy Mamdeen takes the mount for Wendy Anderson. He falls between the top two in our ratings and the rest of the field, which makes him a natural show play for bettors who want to include him in exotics without going heavy. In a race with an even-money favorite, the show pool on Mr Jaws could be underlaid — check the board before you commit.

Race 5

2:15 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

Maiden Special Weight at 6 furlongs, and this is a wide-open first-time-or-lightly-raced group where our ratings diverge dramatically — Cortex sits well above the field while several others are nearly impossible to separate.

win7CortexML 5/2

Cortex leads all comers with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating despite a 5/2 morning line — this is one of the better value relationships between rating and price on today's card. Rashawn Brewster rides for Terry Neubuhr, and in a maiden field where no one has won a race, process of elimination favors the horse with the strongest underlying metrics. An average speed of 51 is respectable in this company, and the rating gap between Cortex and the next tier is large enough to handicap with confidence.

place1Tachin UpML 2/1

Tachin Up is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 with a 57.49 rating, which makes him a sensible place play even if Cortex has the edge on our numbers. Antonio Whitehall rides for Robert Maybin, who also enters Mor Famous — the stable appears to have live chances in both directions. The average speed of 52 gives Tachin Up a slight edge over several rivals, and favorites in maiden sprints hit the board at a high clip.

show8Mor FamousML 7/2

Mor Famous rounds out the ticket at 7/2 for trainer Robert Maybin — same barn as Tachin Up, which tells you Maybin is taking this race seriously with two horses. Javaniel R. Patterson climbs aboard, and the 55.83 rating is third-best in the field. With the highest average speed of any horse in the race at 53, Mor Famous could be the one who finishes fastest if the pace gets honest early.

Race 6

2:40 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Rise Again enters as a dominant figures horse and a short price, but this is a full nine-horse claiming field with genuine depth in the middle — Senecait's 25% career win rate and top speed figure make the exacta a must-play.

win8Rise AgainML 9/5

Rise Again carries an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — tied for the highest on today's card — along with a jaw-dropping 42% career win rate that stands out immediately. Antonio Whitehall has the mount for Michael Nault, and with that kind of win percentage, this horse knows how to finish. The 9/5 morning line is short, but the underlying numbers justify the price — this is a horse whose form has been consistently excellent.

place2SenecaitML 5/2

Senecait is our place pick and the most intriguing horse in the race beyond the top selection. A 25% career win rate paired with the field's highest average speed figure of 54 is a combination that screams pace presence, and Antonio Ambrosio Reyes takes the call for Robert Van Overschot. At 5/2, Senecait won't light up the exacta board, but this is a horse who figures to be competitive throughout the entire 6 furlongs.

show1ZibibboML 9/2

Zibibbo at 9/2 provides the show value in a spot where the top two horses are both short prices. Javaniel R. Patterson rides for Carl Norman Anderson, and the 61.09 rating holds up reasonably well against this field's middle tier. Zibibbo's 9% career win rate is the lowest among our picks, but in a nine-horse field with contested pace likely, he's the kind of sneaky closer who can drift into third.

Race 7

3:05 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Nine horses, a wide-open pace scenario, and a legitimate overlay at 5/1 headlining our picks — Race 7 is the kind of spot where the public may over-bet the lower-priced morning-line horses and leave real money on the table.

win7Mr. SplashML 5/1

Mr. Splash opens at 5/1 with the field's top TrackWiz rating of 81.86 and a 30% career win rate — that combination at that price is a green light. Rachaad Knights takes the mount for Mike Taphorn, and the average speed of 52 is right in line with the competitive core of this nine-horse sprint. When TrackWiz's top-rated horse is also the best career winner at a price well above even money, that's where serious bettors put their money.

place2Switzler JamminML 15/1

Switzler Jammin is the live longshot of the entire card at 15/1, posting a 69.58 rating alongside an average speed of 54 that ties for the top mark in the field. Sheldon Chickeness rides for Tom Gardipy, Jr. — the same trainer who saddles Tiz Romantic in this race — and a 26% career win rate suggests Switzler Jammin can absolutely fire on the right day. If there's a price bomb on today's card, this is the leading candidate.

show6Ghost CowboyML 5/2

Ghost Cowboy at 5/2 gives Damario Bynoe a manageable ride in a wide field, and the 65.89 TrackWiz rating puts him solidly in the mix for trainer Jerry Gourneau. A 13% career win rate isn't elite, but the morning-line suggests the public agrees this is a legitimate contender. In a nine-horse field where the pace could get messy, a horse with a mid-range rating and an accessible price makes good exotic insurance.

Race 8

3:30 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Closing out the card with a Maiden Claiming sprint, this race features an interesting power structure — Off the Payroll leads on ratings but three horses are clustered between 64 and 66, making the exacta and trifecta genuinely competitive.

win8Off the PayrollML 7/2

Off the Payroll headlines this race with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating — well clear of the next tier — and Tyrone Nelson picks up the mount for Tom Gardipy, Jr. In maiden claiming company, a 7/2 morning line for a horse this dominant in our ratings represents real value. The average speed of 52 is solid in context, and Gardipy's barn has been active and engaged throughout today's card, which is always worth noting when a trainer is throwing multiple runners at the same meet.

place1When I Saw YouML 5/2

When I Saw You draws the rail at 5/2 with a 66.20 rating, the second-best figure in the field, and Sheldon Chickeness handles the riding duties for Tom Gardipy, Jr. Interestingly, Gardipy saddles two horses in this race — Off the Payroll and When I Saw You — and that kind of stable confidence in a race usually signals both are fit and ready. An average speed of 53 leads the entire field, giving When I Saw You a legitimate speed advantage if she can get a clean trip from the inside post.

show6Witt's Dubai GalML 3/1

Witt's Dubai Gal closes the ticket at 3/1 for trainer Jerry Gourneau, with Renaldo Cumberbatch in the saddle and a 65.47 rating that's essentially a dead heat with When I Saw You on our scale. In a race where the top three ratings are separated by just a few points, the show spot could easily be decided by trip and pace setup. At a morning line of 3/1, Witt's Dubai Gal offers excellent value for trifecta builders who want a reliable third-place anchor.

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Today's card at Assiniboia is anchored by Lt. Norm in Race 2 — the top-rated horse on the entire card and a legitimate cornerstone for any multi-race sequence. Delvecchio and Sherlyn Go Go give the free-play crowd two more live shots in the early going. For the full picture — pace projections, exotic tickets, and every angle through Race 8 — the complete analysis is waiting for subscribers. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart.

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