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Assiniboia Picks & Predictions — September 22, 2026

8 racesAll Assiniboia picks

Tuesday racing at Assiniboia Downs comes with a crisp autumn feel — partly cloudy skies and 63°F temperatures that should keep the dirt surface playing fair and fast. Eight races on the board, all on the main track, and the card has a little something for everyone: maiden claimers getting their feet wet, allowance horses stepping up in class, and a deep closing half of the card that should reward sharp handicapping.

The conditions are about as clean as you'll get this time of year at ASD. No rain in the equation, mild temps — don't overthink the surface angle today. This is a day to focus on form, pace, and trainer intentions.

Best Bets

Race 1

Maiden Claiming · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint at 4½ furlongs where the morning line tells the whole story — one horse is a heavy favorite in a field of first-timers and short-on-experience runners, but a pair of hidden threats could make this more interesting than the chalk suggests.

win5Singing in SeattleML 6/5

Singing in Seattle draws the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 59.67 — a clear margin over the competition — and the 6/5 morning line reflects the market's confidence. Jockey Kerron Khelawan gets the call, and in a short 4½-furlong dash, breaking alertly from post 5 will be key. With all horses in this maiden field carrying zero career wins, this is purely a projection game, and our model likes Singing in Seattle's profile the most going into race day.

place1Grand Slam DukeML 6/1

Grand Slam Duke posts the second-best rating in the race at 51.67 and matches Singing in Seattle with an average speed figure of 52. Trainer Mike Taphorn also saddles Three D Thrill in this same race, so he's clearly got a read on the condition — Grand Slam Duke appears to be his stronger entry based on the ratings split. At 6/1 on the morning line, there's solid place value here.

show4Today's AgendaML EVN

Today's Agenda is the public's second choice at even money, which might make the 45.0 TrackWiz rating a little surprising — but in a field this green, class projections are fuzzy. Trainer Michael Nault and jockey Antonio Whitehall are a pairing worth noting, and the matching average speed figure of 52 keeps Today's Agenda competitive on raw ability. A show ticket here is a reasonable hedge in what is genuinely an unpredictable opener.

Race 2

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Hey Big Un looms as a massive class standout in this 6-furlong claimer, but Fleet of Hoof's superior average speed figure keeps this from being a total walkover — pace could shape up quickly from the gate.

win1Hey Big UnML 6/5

Hey Big Un tops the TrackWiz ratings board at 89.71 — more than seven points clear of the field's next-best — and trainer Tom Gardipy Jr. has this one in the right spot. The 6/5 morning line is short, but the separation in our model justifies the price. Jockey Tyrone Nelson rides, and with a 15% career win rate for the horse, there's a proven winning pedigree backing up the numbers here.

place3Fleet of HoofML 2/1

Fleet of Hoof is the one to beat for the place spot, posting the field's best average speed figure at 54 and a TrackWiz rating of 82.06. Trainer Dale Zawislak sends out a horse with a 16% career win rate, and Antonio Whitehall in the irons adds a capable rider to the equation. If Hey Big Un hits any trouble in a five-horse sprint, Fleet of Hoof has the raw speed to capitalize.

show4Global AgendaML 4/1

Global Agenda brings a compelling 30% career win rate to the table — easily the best in this field — and the 4/1 morning line represents fair value for show purposes. Trainer M.L. Pierce keeps the horse competitive in the claiming ranks, and Christopher Roy Mamdeen has the experience to position this one correctly in a pace scenario. The 73.87 rating slots in solidly as the third-best in the field, making the show spot a reasonable target.

Race 3

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This allowance optional claiming test at 6 furlongs features a clear top-rated contender, but the pace figures to be honest with multiple horses carrying solid speed marks — Ceepeegee lurking at 5/1 gives the exacta a very interesting look.

win5Prime SuspectML 2/1

Prime Suspect heads our analysis with the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 88.54, and trainer Lise Pruitt sends this one out at a 2/1 morning line that reflects real market respect. Jockey Sven Balroop rides a horse with a 20% career win rate — consistent without being flashy — and the average speed figure of 53 keeps the horse right in the mix on raw ability. In an allowance optional claiming field, having this kind of rating edge is a meaningful advantage.

place4CeepeegeeML 5/1

Ceepeegee is the TrackWiz value angle of this race. The rating of 72.19 actually edges out Factory Drive for the second spot in our model, and the 5/1 morning line underestimates what this horse brings. Trainer Jared Brown teams with Kerron Khelawan, and an average speed figure of 54 — tied for the field's best — suggests Ceepeegee can sit close to the pace and pounce late. This is the kind of price that makes exactas very appealing.

show1Factory DriveML 3/1

Factory Drive is no slouch here — a 71.81 TrackWiz rating and a 21% career win rate make this horse a legitimate contender, not just a show filler. Trainer M.L. Pierce places horses well at this level, and Antonio Whitehall gets the mount. The average speed figure of 54 ties for the field's best, so Factory Drive has the pure ability to finish in the money even if Prime Suspect proves dominant.

We're opening up three races for every reader today, and our TrackWiz analysis likes what it sees. Singing in Seattle gets things rolling in the maiden claimer to kick off the card — a useful starting point for understanding how the speed figures are playing on this afternoon's strip. Then Hey Big Un comes in as our highest-confidence free pick of the day, posting a TrackWiz rating of 89.71 in a 6-furlong claiming sprint — the kind of number that commands attention at a 6/5 morning line. Race 3 brings an Allowance Optional Claiming test at the same distance, where Prime Suspect (88.54 rating, 2/1 ML) sets up as a genuine contender willing to run for a tag if needed — a subtle class-drop signal worth monitoring at the windows.

Across these three free races, the 6-furlong distance repeats twice, which gives us a nice read on early pace and whether closers or front-runners are getting the better of it today. Use Races 1 through 3 as your track-bias laboratory before the premium half of the card heats up.

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Eight races, a clean dirt surface, and multiple plays with TrackWiz ratings pushing into the high 80s and low 90s — Assiniboia is serving up a workable Tuesday card. Hey Big Un is the standout free play, and Betterlucknexttime headlines a premium closer that looks worth the attention. Grab the free picks to start, and if you want the full picture — pace, exotics, and every angle on Races 4 through 8 — the complete breakdown is waiting for subscribers.