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Assiniboia Picks & Predictions — September 16, 2026

September 16, 20267 racesAll Assiniboia picks

This card ran on September 16, 2026.

Best bets at Assiniboia, September 16, 2026

Race 14Ms BumblebeeML 2/18:30 PM EDT

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Rain is falling at Assiniboia Downs this Wednesday, with temperatures sitting at a cool 53°F and a wet dirt track that figures to play a major role in how this 7-race card unfolds. When the strip gets muddy at Asso, pace dynamics shift, closers can pick up ground they'd never find on a fast track, and horses with prior wet-track experience move way up the priority list.

We've got a little bit of everything today — maiden claimers trying to break their duck, a pair of straight claimers at six furlongs, an allowance optional claiming sprint, and the marquee event: a Stakes race going the long way around at 1 1/8 miles. Seven races, one tough afternoon of handicapping, and TrackWiz has you covered from the first post to the last.

Three races are open to all readers, giving you a solid starting point before the card heats up. The premium analysis locks in on four additional races where the real meat of today's wagering opportunities lives.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A small but competitive claiming field at 7 furlongs where two horses stand well above the rest on TrackWiz ratings, making for a clear top pair — but the morning line tells a different story than our numbers.

win4Ms BumblebeeML 2/1

Ms Bumblebee (4) tops our TrackWiz ratings at 88.54 — the highest mark in this field — and her average speed figure of 54 is the best of any horse in the race. At 2/1 on the morning line, she's not being overlooked by the oddsmakers either, suggesting the public agrees she belongs on top. The Nathan Haar/Robert J. Haar jockey-trainer combo is always worth noting — family operations often mean strong communication and horse knowledge. A 5% career win rate is modest, but the raw performance metrics say this horse is capable of a big effort today.

place2GrenacheML EVN

Grenache (2) is the morning-line favorite at even money and carries a solid 86.46 TrackWiz rating, making her the clear second choice in our model. A 11% career win rate is respectable in this kind of claiming company, and trainer Wendy Anderson keeps horses running consistently. If the pace scenario sets up for a presser or closer, Grenache looks like a horse who will be right there at the wire.

show3No Barb WireML 4/1

No Barb Wire (3) brings the best career win rate in the field at 15% — a number that suggests this horse knows how to finish. The 4/1 morning line offers decent show value in a five-horse field, and trainer Marion Johnston gives her a legitimate shot in a race that doesn't require a massive performance to land a check. A useful piece for exacta and trifecta coverage.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

9:00 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claiming sprint where nobody in the field has ever won — but that doesn't mean the numbers are equal. TrackWiz sees a clear hierarchy here, and there's a genuine longshot angle worth exploring.

win1Canadian LitesML 6/5

Canadian Lites (1) leads our TrackWiz ratings at 86.66 in a field where no horse has a win on their record, which makes the top of the ratings all the more meaningful. Her average speed figure of 52 is competitive with the field, and trainer Judy Hunter has the rail post well-covered with jockey Rachaad Knights in the irons. At 6/5, the market agrees she's the one to beat — and in a maiden field this evenly matched on paper, the highest-rated horse deserves respect.

place5IfurnotearlyurlateML 10/1

Pleasant Time (2) holds down third in our ratings at 68.91 and matches the field-standard speed figure of 52. Trainer Steven Thompson keeps horses competitive, and at 5/1, there's real place value here if the top two in the market tangle early. She profiles as the type who could sneak into the exacta or trifecta without much fanfare.

show2Pleasant TimeML 5/1

Rating board at 68.9. Ridden by Roger Hewitt. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 13.15 sec/furlong. Has placed in the last 2 races.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Our three free races today give you a strong cross-section of the card. Ms Bumblebee kicks things off in Race 1 at 7 furlongs — a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 makes her our highest-rated top pick on the entire card, and at 2/1 on the morning line, she's not a chalk play you need to apologize for. Race 2 brings Canadian Lites into the maiden claiming ranks, sitting as the short-priced morning line favorite at 6/5 with an 86.66 rating to back it up. And in Race 3, She's My Niece steps into allowance optional claiming company at 6 furlongs — another 88.54 rating, another 2/1 shot who deserves serious consideration, especially with the wet going that may thin out pace in the shorter sprints.

One theme connecting these free picks: all three races are on a rain-affected dirt surface. Horses that can handle off-track conditions — whether they've shown it in past results or their breeding suggests it — get a meaningful bump in our models today. Keep that in mind as you build your tickets.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

9:25 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

An allowance optional claiming sprint at 6 furlongs that shapes up as a pace battle between experienced winners — Wecanonlyimagine's elite career win rate is the wild card in an otherwise tightly contested race.

win2She's My NieceML 2/1

She's My Niece (2) is the top-rated horse in this field at 88.54 on TrackWiz and brings a career win rate of 21% — a mark that suggests she converts when conditions are right. Trainer William Tourangeau has her set up in an allowance optional claiming spot, and Antonio Whitehall gets the call from a comfortable outside-post draw. At 2/1 on the morning line, she's a fair price for a horse with the best numbers in the field.

place3WecanonlyimagineML 3/1

Wecanonlyimagine (3) has the most eye-catching number in the entire race — a 37% career win rate that is frankly outstanding for any level of competition. Her TrackWiz rating of 70.85 puts her third in the field, but that career win percentage says she punches above her weight consistently. Trainer Jared Brown and jockey Kerron Khelawan are a familiar pairing at Assiniboia, and at 3/1, this horse looks like a legitimate place threat and possibly more.

show1ChaiML 8/5

Chai (1) draws the rail and comes in at 8/5 on the morning line — actually the shortest price in the field — despite rating third on our model at 65.89. Trainer Judy Hunter keeps her competitive with an 18% career win rate, and Damario Bynoe is an active and capable rider at this meet. She could easily upset the order if she gets a clean trip from the inside, making her a necessary inclusion in any exotic wager.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 4

10:10 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Mystic Song is a heavy favorite for a reason — a 62% career win rate is almost unheard of at any level — but Not So Swift is lurking at a price that could make the exacta worth playing.

win6Mystic SongML 4/5

Mystic Song (6) is as close to a lock as you'll see in a claiming race. A 62% career win rate is extraordinary — more than six out of every ten career starts end in a win for this horse. Her TrackWiz rating of 87.35 leads the field, and an average speed figure of 54 is tied for the top mark in the race. Shavon Townsend picks up the mount, and trainer Carl Norman Anderson clearly has this horse in prime form. Yes, 4/5 is a short price, but the numbers here are genuinely rare.

place1Not So SwiftML 4/1

Not So Swift (1) is quietly interesting at 4/1. Her TrackWiz rating of 85.62 is the second-best in the field — only two points behind the morning-line favorite — yet she's going off at five times the odds. A 15% career win rate and an average speed figure of 53 make her competitive on pure performance metrics, and Damario Bynoe has been active on the Assiniboia circuit. If Mystic Song has any kind of off day, Not So Swift is the most likely beneficiary.

show3Peterson LandingML 3/1

Peterson Landing (3) is solid in third on our ratings at 76.94 and brings a 14% career win rate to a field where consistency matters. Trainer Michael Nault and jockey Antonio Whitehall are a known combination at this track, and at 3/1 she offers legitimate show value without needing to beat the favorite. A useful exotics piece if you're looking to build around Mystic Song on top.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 5

10:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Golden Cheero goes off at 4/1 despite topping our ratings in a claiming sprint that has a surprising depth of talent — Hold My Earrings is the overlooked horse with a career win rate that demands attention.

win1Golden CheeroML 4/1

Golden Cheero (1) leads the TrackWiz model at 85.62, a rating that eclipses the morning-line favorite Boujee Britches by a notable margin. A 14% career win rate and an average speed figure of 52 make her competitive with the field, and trainer Carl Norman Anderson — who we've already seen win on this card with Mystic Song in Race 4 — is clearly having a strong meet. Shavon Townsend is a go-to rider at Assiniboia, and from the rail, Golden Cheero should get every opportunity to control the pace scenario at 6 furlongs.

place4Hold My EarringsML 10/1

Hold My Earrings (4) is the most underrated horse on the board today. A 37% career win rate is elite for any claiming field — only Wecanonlyimagine in Race 3 can match that figure on today's card. She's going off at 10/1 despite her rating of 76.37 putting her second in our model, which is a classic overlay situation. Nathan Haar rides for trainer Robert J. Haar — the same family connection that nearly took Race 1 — and if this filly fires her best race, she won't be paying 10/1 at the windows.

show2Boujee BritchesML 7/5

Boujee Britches (2) is the 7/5 morning-line choice, making her the public's pick despite rating third in our model at 68.18. A 7% career win rate is modest, but trainer Wendy Anderson and jockey Kerron Khelawan form a reliable combination that keeps horses competitive. She's likely to be heavily bet down further and should be included in exotics simply because of the favoritism — she'll get a good trip.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 6

11:00 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

The stakes race at 1 1/8 miles is where the card gets truly interesting — the public loves Go Go Boss at 6/5, but our TrackWiz model sees the race very differently, with Attack rated best and two longshot angles worth serious consideration.

win3AttackML 8/1

Attack (3) tops our TrackWiz ratings for this stakes field at 79.79, and yet he's sitting at 8/1 on the morning line — a meaningful overlay in a race where the public is enamored with Go Go Boss. Trainer Craig Robert Smith sends him out with N'Rico Prescod up, and a 17% career win rate at the stakes level carries weight. At 1 1/8 miles, pace dynamics become critical, and Attack's rating profile suggests he's built for a longer test. Don't be scared off by the odds — this is exactly the kind of horse TrackWiz analysis is designed to surface.

place6GethsemaneML 6/1

Gethsemane (6) rates sixth in career win percentage at 10% but slots in second on our model at 70.13 — which tells you she runs big occasionally even if she doesn't always close the deal. Trainer Monique Goulet sends her out at 6/1 with Antonio Whitehall, a jockey who's appeared in multiple races today and has clearly been riding with confidence. In a stakes field this deep and diverse, a place price of 6/1 on a horse who rates second in our model is the kind of value play that builds profitable exotics tickets.

show1Elston GunnnML 12/1

Elston Gunnn (1) brings a 25% career win rate — among the better marks in this stakes field — and rates at 68.0 on our model, which is third overall. Shavon Townsend has been everywhere on this card today, and trainer Eugene Burns has him positioned from the inside post. At 12/1, he's a sneaky trifecta piece in a race where the public is likely to concentrate their money on shorter-priced horses.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 7

11:25 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The finale is a tightly bunched claiming sprint where four horses rate within three points of each other on TrackWiz — this is a race where jockey and trip will matter enormously, and the morning line is misleading.

win5J L CopperML 7/1

J L Copper (5) gets the nod as our top pick at 81.25 on the TrackWiz model, but what's striking is that he's going off at 7/1 despite rating the highest in the field. A 18% career win rate and an average speed figure of 53 round out a profile that belongs at a shorter price. Trainer Jared Brown and jockey Kerron Khelawan — who have been one of the more active combos on today's card — should have this horse ready to fire in the finale. If the pace sets up honestly in a seven-horse field, J L Copper looks dangerous.

place4LivininthefastlaneML 5/1

Livininthefastlane (4) rates a close second on our model at 79.35, making this a genuinely razor-thin top trio. Trainer Devon Gittens has the horse primed, and Rashawn Brewster gets the call at 5/1 — a fair price given how tightly bunched the ratings are. A 12% career win rate is honest in claiming company, and at 6 furlongs, a horse with this kind of rating who breaks cleanly from post 4 can settle right into a ground-saving trip.

show3Run Matteo RunML 8/1

Run Matteo Run (3) completes a trifecta of tightly-rated closers at 78.99 on our model. Mathew Bennett rides for trainer Tiffany Husbands, who has already had representation on today's card, and a 16% career win rate matches almost exactly with Classico, the morning-line favorite. At 8/1, Run Matteo Run offers genuine show value and legitimate exacta upside — in a race this close on paper, getting the third-best-rated horse at that price is worth including in your tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

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Bottom line for today at Assiniboia: the wet dirt is the story, Ms Bumblebee and She's My Niece headline the free plays as our top-rated picks on the card, and the Stakes in Race 6 offers a potential longshot opportunity with Attack at 8/1. It's the kind of rainy-day card that rewards sharp preparation over gut feelings — and that's exactly what the full TrackWiz analysis is built for. Good luck out there, and as always, bet within your means.

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