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Assiniboia Picks & Predictions — September 15, 2026

September 15, 20267 racesAll Assiniboia picks

It's a crisp Tuesday afternoon at Assiniboia Downs — clear skies, 56°F, and a fast dirt strip that should reward speed and honest pace throughout the card. Seven races are on the docket, and the conditions set up for some clean, reliable form.

The headliner is Race 6, a Stakes event going a route of 1 1/8 miles where morning-line favorite Dontgiveupthefight drew the attention of our models right away. But there's plenty to dig into before you even get there — a pair of allowance spots and a full slate of claiming races give sharp bettors multiple angles to attack all afternoon.

Three races are fully open to every TrackWiz reader, and four premium races round out the card for subscribers. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:30 AM EDT

Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning line favorite doesn't top our ratings in this 7.5-furlong dirt claimer — Sherlyn Go Go carries the highest TrackWiz score in the field and looks like a sneaky overlay at 6/1.

win4Sherlyn Go GoML 6/1

Sherlyn Go Go is the highest-rated horse in this field with an 82.71 TrackWiz score, yet the morning line has her out at 6/1 — that's the kind of gap that gets handicappers excited. Her 29% career win rate is the best in the field by a significant margin, and trainer Wendy Anderson sends her out sharp. The extended 7.5-furlong trip should suit a horse with that kind of class edge, and jockey Kerron Khelawan gives her a confident connection in the irons.

place1ArioML 4/5

Ario is the public's choice at 4/5 for a reason — a 74.45 rating and 22% career win rate make him a legitimate contender, and trainer M. L. Pierce has him well-placed in a field where the pace should set up nicely for a closer. If Sherlyn Go Go gets the job done up front, Ario's consistency makes him a safe safety net underneath.

show5OutofquemadoML 4/1

Outofquemado checks in third on our ratings at 70.42 and brings a 15% career win rate into a race where the top two look separable from the rest. Trainer M. L. Pierce also saddles Ario, giving the barn two live shots, and Antonio Whitehall keeps the ride. At 4/1, Outofquemado offers enough upside to anchor a trifecta underneath the top pair.

Race 2

1:00 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

Lise Pruitt sends out two horses in this 5-furlong sprint and her second entrant tops the TrackWiz ratings — a tricky betting situation where the barn could be playing a game.

win6Switzler JamminML 4/1

Switzler Jammin leads all comers with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating and a strong 28% career win rate in a five-horse field that includes her stablemate. Trainer Lise Pruitt clearly has this barn rolling, and at 4/1 on the morning line, Switzler Jammin represents genuine value against the odds-on favorite. Jockey Damario Bynoe gets the call, and in a short 5-furlong dash, a horse with a top speed figure and a win-hungry profile is exactly what you want.

place2Bling Bling BlingML 7/5

Bling Bling Bling is the public's 7/5 choice and she's not without merit — an 80.75 rating and 27% career win rate speak to consistent ability. She's a half-point off her stablemate in our model, so if Switzler Jammin underperforms, she's perfectly capable of picking up the slack. Keep her underneath in exactas and doubles.

show1Northvale RoadML 5/1

Northvale Road might be the forgotten horse here at 5/1, but a 70.5 rating and 24% career win rate make her more than an afterthought. Trainer Carman Mustard has her at a distance that suits, and Shavon Townsend is a capable hand in the irons. In a sprint where pace can scramble the order, Northvale Road has the profile to sneak into the money.

Race 3

1:25 AM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

An allowance field with a clear class standout at even money — Banker Matt tops the TrackWiz board at a perfect 90, but the secondary horses are closer than the morning line suggests.

win6Banker MattML EVN

Banker Matt draws the top TrackWiz rating in the entire card today with a 90.0 score, and trainer Ryan Desjarlais has him primed for this allowance sprint. His 25% career win rate is respectable for the level, and even-money favorites with this kind of model separation don't come around often. Jockey Kerron Khelawan has been aboard multiple horses today, but Banker Matt is clearly the marquee mount — and at even money, there's still value in a horse this dominant on the ratings.

place3Judge OliverML 5/1

Judge Oliver is our place pick at 5/1, and at 68.74 on the TrackWiz scale, he's meaningfully ahead of the rest of the field. Trainer Jason Homer also has He's My Uncle in the race, which gives the barn a two-pronged attack, and Shavon Townsend is a savvy jockey who can navigate traffic. At 5/1, Judge Oliver is a logical second choice for multi-race wagers.

show4Money MitchML 4/1

Money Mitch sits at 66.34 in our ratings and offers an interesting angle as the second M. L. Pierce runner on the day — the barn has been active and Nathan Haar takes the mount. His 9% career win rate is modest, but in a short-priced allowance race where the top two dominate the ratings, Money Mitch has the tools to outrun his 4/1 morning line and sneak into the exotics.

Our free picks today cover Races 1 through 3, and there's a common thread worth noting: the cool, dry conditions favor horses with clean early foot on what figures to be a consistent, fast-sealed surface. In Race 1, Sherlyn Go Go opens at a tempting 6/1 morning line over 7½ furlongs — that's route distance where subtle pace advantages can compound quickly, and our rating of 82.71 says she's live at the price. Race 2 tightens up to a sharp 5-furlong sprint, and Switzler Jammin (4/1, 85.62) profiles as a horse who can control or press the pace and last on this kind of surface.

Race 3 is where casual and serious bettors alike should pay close attention. Banker Matt is our top-rated free pick of the day at 90.00, and the even-money morning line tells you the connections and the market agree. Allowance company at 6 furlongs on a clear Assiniboia afternoon is right in his wheelhouse. Don't overthink it.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

2:10 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A classic overlay setup in this 6-furlong claimer — the public will likely back the 6/5 shot, but our top-rated horse is sitting at 4/1 and carries a substantially higher TrackWiz score.

win2Classic RickML 4/1

Classic Rick is our top pick with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating, yet he's sitting at 4/1 while Hey Big Un draws most of the public action at 6/5. Trainer Larry Gourneau Jr. has him in at a distance that suits, and jockey Damario Bynoe — who's had multiple chances to shine today — gets the call on arguably the sharpest horse in the race. His 17% career win rate is a touch modest, but the model separation over the favorite here is real.

place6Hey Big UnML 6/5

Hey Big Un is the public's choice at 6/5 and a 78.31 rating keeps him relevant, but our analysis has him as a solid second rather than the winner. Trainer Tom Gardipy Jr. and jockey Tyrone Nelson are a known quantity at Assiniboia, and his 16% career win rate suggests he hits the board regularly. He's a safe place bet but potentially overbet to win.

show3Ricks Red StormML 3/1

Ricks Red Storm is impossible to overlook in the show spot — a 74.48 TrackWiz score and a jaw-dropping 50% career win rate make him a fascinating inclusion at 3/1. Trainer M. L. Pierce has been busy all card, and Antonio Whitehall is a capable handler for a horse with those kinds of win numbers. Whether that career figure comes with caveats or not, you can't ignore a 50% winner in your exotics.

Race 5

2:35 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Two horses — Dancing Raquel and Blue Spirit — are separated from the rest of the field on our ratings in this Allowance Optional Claiming sprint, setting up a compelling top-two battle.

win1Dancing RaquelML 2/1

Dancing Raquel tops our ratings at 88.54 and draws a favorable post in the one hole for trainer Mike Taphorn. Jockey Javaniel R. Patterson gets the call, and the 2/1 morning line is actually reasonable given her model score — she's not being undersold. Her 17% career win rate mirrors Flash Master's, but the rating gap between them is significant enough to separate the two. In a race where she can control her own fate from the rail, Dancing Raquel is our top play of the race.

place6Blue SpiritML 3/1

Blue Spirit comes in at 86.5 on the TrackWiz scale — just a hair behind our win pick — and the 3/1 morning line makes her an outstanding place bet. Trainer Jared Brown has her placed well in an optional claimer, and Kerron Khelawan has been one of the busiest and most effective jockeys on the card today. Her 15% career win rate suggests she's competitive at this level, and this is the kind of horse who shows up in the money consistently.

show2Flash MasterML 7/5

Flash Master is the 7/5 morning line favorite based on public handicapping, but our ratings have him third at 74.22 — which makes him a better show horse than a win bet at short odds. Trainer Jerry Gourneau has him well-positioned for this surface and distance, and Neville Stephenson keeps the mount. For exotic players, keying him underneath Dancing Raquel and Blue Spirit in the trifecta makes a lot of sense.

Race 6

3:00 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

Stakes day features a heavy favorite who looks every bit the part on our ratings, but the place and show exotics could get interesting if a couple of overlooked closers fire their best shots.

win2DontgiveupthefightML 4/5

Dontgiveupthefight is a dominant 90.0 on the TrackWiz scale and draws the 4/5 morning line for a reason — a 46% career win rate is extraordinary, particularly at the stakes level. Trainer Robertino Diodoro is one of the most accomplished conditioners in the region, and Rico W. Walcott aboard is a high-quality booking. The 1 1/8-mile distance tests stamina, and a horse with these credentials should handle the extra ground without issue. Fading the 4/5 shot is a hard sell.

place5Holy BelleML 15/1

Holy Belle is a fascinating place pick at 15/1 — a 64.2 TrackWiz rating and a 26% career win rate in the place column make her more live than her odds suggest. Trainer Robert Henson gets her to the gate with an average speed figure of 54, matching Out too Late for the field-best pace potential. At those odds, she's a prime candidate for exacta and trifecta exotics underneath the heavy favorite.

show6WelcometohollywoodML 8/1

Welcometohollywood checks in at 58.28 on our model with a 31% career win rate — the highest of any horse in this race outside the favorite. Trainer Jared Brown has been a recurring presence today, and Kerron Khelawan, who's been one of the card's most active jockeys, takes the mount. At 8/1, he's a reasonable show inclusion and a smart play in wide-open trifecta structures.

Race 7

3:25 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A full eight-horse claiming field at 6 furlongs where two horses are separated from the pack on our ratings — but the third and fourth choices on the morning line both have credentials to be dangerous.

win2After the GameML 2/1

After the Game tops our ratings at 85.09 and is installed as the 2/1 second choice on the morning line, giving us a nice blend of value and confidence. Trainer Robert J. Haar sends out Nathan Haar — a jockey-trainer family connection that often signals a sharp, well-prepared horse. His 12% career win rate is the only modest stat in his profile, but the rating edge over this field more than compensates. In a six-furlong sprint with a full field, he has the model score to lead the way home.

place1Mischievous IntentML 6/1

Mischievous Intent sits at 82.71 on the TrackWiz scale — just a tick below our win pick — and trainer Jerry Gourneau has him primed for this level. Dario Dalrymple gets the mount and will look to use his 6/1 price to his advantage by finding a comfortable spot in the early pace flow. His 15% career win rate and strong rating make him a logical place selection and a cornerstone of any multi-horse exotic ticket.

show8Red Road RunnerML 5/2

Red Road Runner comes in third on our ratings at 76.58, and Antonio Whitehall's presence in the irons is a meaningful upgrade — he's been one of the most active and effective jockeys on the card today. Trainer Michael Nault has him positioned at 5/2 on the morning line, suggesting the public sees him as a genuine contender. His 16% career win rate is consistent with a horse who shows up in the money, and he's the logical show anchor in trifecta constructions.

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Clear weather, a consistent dirt surface, and a legitimate stakes race make today's Assiniboia card worth your full attention. Banker Matt is our strongest free play of the afternoon, and Dontgiveupthefight headlines the premium side. Three free best bets are live right now — and subscribers have the full seven-race breakdown ready to go. Good luck out there.

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