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Assiniboia Picks & Predictions — September 14, 2026

September 14, 20267 racesAll Assiniboia picks

This card ran on September 14, 2026.

Best bets at Assiniboia, September 14, 2026

Race 12Norma NoML 2/18:30 PM EDT

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Rain is in the air at Assiniboia Downs today — literally. Temperatures sitting at 58°F with steady rain falling means the dirt is going to be playing wet, and that changes everything from pace shape to which horses you trust late in a race. Seven races are on the board this Monday, and the wet going is as much a handicapping factor as any speed figure on the card.

The card leans heavily on claiming races, which is typical Assiniboia — these are working horses, not glamour runners, and that's exactly what makes this circuit fun to dig into. Class drops, trainer moves, and pace mismatches are where the money gets made here. We've got a solid mix of shorter sprints and near-route distances at 7 and 7½ furlongs to close the day out.

Three races are available free to all TrackWiz readers today, with our top picks Norma No (Race 1), She's a Maneater (Race 2), and Gallant Oak (Race 3) headlining the open-access analysis. Races 4 through 7 — including what looks like the day's most interesting spot in the Allowance Optional Claiming at 7½ furlongs — are unlocked for subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A claiming opener at 7 furlongs where one horse is clearly a class above the field — but the morning line suggests the crowd already knows it.

win2Norma NoML 2/1

Norma No is the standout of this field and it isn't particularly close. Her TrackWiz rating of 88.54 towers over the next-best at 72.81, and a career win rate of 42% is elite at this level — nearly double the field average. Posting an average speed figure of 54, she has the top end to control or press the pace here. Trainer Robert Maybin also saddles the #1, so he's double-dipping in this race, but all the ammunition is clearly loaded on Norma No.

place3KikiloveML 5/2

Kikilove opens at 5/2 on the morning line and carries a TrackWiz rating of 72.81, which puts her solidly in the second tier of this field. Her average speed of 52 is respectable, and if Norma No gets pressured early, Kikilove's running style could set her up to pick up the pieces late. She's a logical place ticket anchor in exactas.

show5Hardly MischievousML 9/5

Hardly Mischievous comes in as the second choice at 9/5 despite a TrackWiz rating (72.33) that trails Kikilove by a whisker. Her career win percentage of 16% is modest, but jockey Rachaad Knights gives her a live rider in the irons. She's a reasonable show play and a useful wheel option in trifectas given her market position.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

9:00 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden special weight sprint where every horse in the field is looking for their first win — and the ratings are tight enough that any of the top three could wire it.

win2She's a ManeaterML 9/5

She's a Maneater tops our TrackWiz ratings at 58.67 and is the morning line favorite at 9/5, which tells you the market agrees. She pairs an average speed figure of 52 with trainer Jared Brown, who keeps live horses sharp. In a field of maidens where we're dealing with limited data across the board, being the highest-rated and fastest-times horse is meaningful — and jockey Kerron Khelawan is a capable handler in these short sprints.

place1Maximum UproarML 5/2

Maximum Uproar sits just behind our top pick with a rating of 57.50, and at 5/2 there's real value if she can track the pace and pounce. Her average speed of 52 matches She's a Maneater stride for stride, and trainer Keith Pedersen has her positioned as a logical second choice. In a maiden race where the winner is often decided by who handles the break best, Maximum Uproar in the rail post is worth including in all exotics.

show6Honourable MentionML 4/1

Honourable Mention draws attention at 4/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 55.0 and the best average speed of the bottom half of the field at 53. Trainer Lise Pruitt is a recognizable name on this card, and jockey Sven Balroop has the experience to place her correctly in traffic. At morning line odds of 4/1, there's overlay potential here relative to her profile — a solid show anchor in trifectas.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

The free side of today's card is anchored by a pair of 7-furlong dirt claimers bookending a maiden sprint. With the track likely playing wet and possibly bias-testing throughout the afternoon, the early races will tell us a lot about surface preferences — keep an eye on whether early speed is holding or whether closers are getting traction in the slop. Norma No (Race 1, morning line 2/1, TrackWiz rating 88.54) is our top-rated pick across the entire free card and the horse we feel best about going into the day. Gallant Oak in Race 3 comes in rated nearly as high at 87.08 and lands in a similar class spot at the same distance — if the pace scenario sets up right, there could be real value there at 3/1 on the morning line.

She's a Maneater draws our attention in the Race 2 maiden sprint at 5½ furlongs. Maiden races on an off track can be chaotic, but at 9/5 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 58.67 in a maiden field, she stands out as the most likely to handle conditions. Maiden ratings are inherently noisier than seasoned horses, so temper expectations — but she's our best play in the race.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

9:25 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Gallant Oak looks like the class of this 7-furlong claiming field, but Free Maker and Shamayim will make it a race — and Oregon County's win percentage is a quiet wrinkle worth watching.

win2Gallant OakML 3/1

Gallant Oak's TrackWiz rating of 87.08 is the highest in this field by a significant margin, and trainer Sherri Leanne Laing sends him out with Christopher Roy Mamdeen aboard — the same jockey who rides Norma No to our top spot in Race 1. A career win rate of 11% may look modest on paper, but that figure doesn't tell the whole story when the per-race rating is this far ahead of the competition. At 3/1 morning line odds, there's still reasonable value here for a horse who profiles as the clear class standout.

place3Free MakerML 7/2

Free Maker opens at 7/2 and carries a solid rating of 66.22 with Antonio Whitehall in the irons. His career win percentage of 12% aligns with a horse who hits the board consistently at this level, and his average speed of 50 suggests he won't be the pace-setter — which could actually work in his favor if the early fractions cook. He's our value place pick in an exacta underneath Gallant Oak.

show6ShamayimML 9/5

Shamayim is the morning line second choice at 9/5 with a rating of 65.15, and jockey Rachaad Knights gives her a strong pilot. Her average speed matches the mid-pack at 51, and a career win percentage of just 9% is the one pause — but in a field where she's clearly a top-three rated horse, she profiles as a durable show option and a trifecta inclusion.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 4

9:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Sgt. Filkow looks like a heavy favorite here for good reason — the question for bettors is whether there's any value left at the windows or if the morning line already squeezed it out.

win5Sgt. FilkowML 7/5

Sgt. Filkow is our top-rated horse in Race 4 at 89.42, and she comes in as the morning line favorite at 7/5. She posts the field's best average speed figure at 53 and her career win rate of 16% at this claiming level is solid. Renaldo Cumberbatch in the irons is another positive — he's a name we see consistently on live horses throughout this card. At 7 furlongs cut back to 6, the distance shortening should play right into her wheelhouse.

place3Ralph's GiftML 3/1

Ralph's Gift enters at 3/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 68.21 and the highest career win percentage in this field at 20% — a meaningful figure that suggests this horse knows how to finish. Trainer Jared Brown and jockey Kerron Khelawan form a recognizable pairing on this card, and with an average speed of 52, Ralph's Gift has the figures to stay competitive if Sgt. Filkow gets pressured early.

show1Red Dirt AlleyML 7/2

Red Dirt Alley opens at 7/2 and earns a TrackWiz rating of 49.58 — enough to make her a credible show contender in this seven-horse field. Trainer Jerry Gourneau runs her off the pace most likely, which in a race where Sgt. Filkow may be controlling fractions up front, gives Red Dirt Alley a clean setup to close into the placing positions. A career win percentage of just 6% is the knock, but she's a reasonable hedge in the show slot.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 5

10:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

Mo Ta arrives as the market favorite in this 5-furlong sprint, but Low Euro Cat's TrackWiz rating presents a legitimate upset case — this could turn into a pace duel that benefits closers.

win1Low Euro CatML 3/1

Low Euro Cat opens at 3/1 and posts a TrackWiz rating of 87.08, which is actually higher than Mo Ta despite being the second choice on the morning line. Her career win rate of 18% and average speed of 53 both indicate she belongs right here at this class level. Trainer Cora Champagne sends her out with Sven Balroop in the irons — a jockey who appears multiple times on today's card and clearly has the rail sense for Assiniboia's tight oval. At 3/1, this is our best value play of the early nightcap races.

place4Mo TaML 7/5

Mo Ta is the morning line favorite at 7/5 and boasts the field's highest average speed figure at a standout 56 — that's a meaningful edge in a 5-furlong sprint where raw early pace matters. A career win rate of 21% backs up the form, and trainer M. L. Pierce sends her out with Antonio Whitehall who has been busy all card. The slight knock is a TrackWiz rating of 78.43 that trails Low Euro Cat — but in a short race, that blazing speed figure could be the trump card.

show5Miss ZML 7/2

Miss Z sits third in our ratings at 76.43 with a morning line of 7/2, and trainer J. Douglas Mustard has her positioned as the third wheel in a loaded top three. Her average speed of 53 matches Low Euro Cat's, and a career win rate of 16% in a field full of sub-20% horses makes her a steady alternative. She's a reliable show bet and a smart bottom ticket in the trifecta.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 6

10:40 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Trainer Tom Gardipy Jr. fires two bullets into this maiden claiming sprint, and our analysis suggests both belong in your exotics — the value hunt here is in the exacta between his two entrants.

win3Off the PayrollML 4/1

Off the Payroll is our top pick in Race 6 with a TrackWiz rating of 85.62 — comfortably clear of the field — and opens at 4/1 despite trainer Tom Gardipy Jr. clearly splitting his ammunition between two horses in this race. Jockey Tyrone Nelson gets the call, and Off the Payroll's average speed of 52 is mid-pack but her overall profile screams class edge in a maiden claiming field. When the top-rated horse is also an overlay on the morning line, that's the angle we want.

place4When I Saw YouML 2/1

When I Saw You is the morning line second choice at 2/1 and actually posts the field's best average speed at 54 — a significant number in a 5.5-furlong sprint. Also trained by Tom Gardipy Jr., she pairs elite raw speed with a rating of 74.54. The fact that the stable's higher-rated horse (Off the Payroll) is available at longer odds makes the exacta connecting these two an intriguing play.

show5Sum Up the SilverML 3/1

Sum Up the Silver opens at 3/1 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 71.08 and an average speed of 52. Trainer Jason Homer has a live one here — this filly rates third in the field by our numbers and holds a pace profile that could see her stalking the leaders through the early fractions. She's our show anchor and a strong trifecta inclusion given her morning line price relative to her profile.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 7

11:05 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

The finale is an Allowance Optional Claiming test at 7.5 furlongs — the longest race on the card — and Foothills Blvd. draws our attention despite being sent off at a generous 4/1 against the morning line favorite.

win4Foothills Blvd.ML 4/1

Foothills Blvd. leads our TrackWiz ratings in Race 7 at 85.62 and comes in at a very playable 4/1 morning line despite being our top selection. The stat that jumps off the page is a career win percentage of 35% — by far the highest in this field and a truly elite figure at the allowance optional claiming level. Trainer Ralph Zaft sends him out with Roger Hewitt, and at 7.5 furlongs the extended sprint favors a horse with that kind of sustained winning form. This is our best bet of the card's back half.

place1JudoML 2/1

Judo opens as the morning line favorite at 2/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 66.96 and a career win percentage of 28% — the second-best in this field. Trainer Wendy Anderson keeps him sharp, and jockey Sven Balroop is clearly the busiest rider on this card today, suggesting the connections are confident. His average speed of 53 fits the distance, and in an allowance field at 7.5 furlongs, he'll get every chance to close into the board positions.

show7Chief BradyML 8/5

Chief Brady is the morning line second choice at 8/5 with a rating of 66.62, just a hair behind Judo. What separates him is the top average speed figure in the field at 54, which matters over the longest trip on today's card. Trainer Jerry Gourneau and jockey Neville Stephenson are a productive combo, and with a career win rate of 18%, he's proven capable at this level. The show slot may be conservative for a horse at 8/5, but he's a must-use in trifectas.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

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It's a seven-race Monday at Assiniboia with rain, mud, and plenty of claiming-race intrigue to work through. Norma No is our marquee free play, Sgt. Filkow is the highest-rated horse on the card, and the late Allowance Optional Claiming could be the most rewarding race to bet. The full card breakdown — pace projections, exotic tickets, and all four premium races — is waiting for subscribers. Head to TrackWiz pricing to unlock it. Good luck out there, and may your horses all handle the slop.

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