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Assiniboia Picks & Predictions — September 9, 2026

September 9, 20268 racesAll Assiniboia picks

Perfect weather, fast dirt, and eight races — Wednesday at Assiniboia Downs is shaping up to be one of those crisp late-summer cards that handicappers dream about. Clear skies and 66°F means the strip should be consistent all afternoon, which is exactly the kind of stable surface that rewards doing your homework.

The card spans maiden claimers to a Stakes showdown, with distances ranging from a tight 5½-furlong sprint all the way out to a route at a mile. That variety means there's something for every style of player — speed merchants, closers, exotics builders, you name it. TrackWiz analysis has combed through the full eight races and we like what we see.

Three of today's best bets are unlocked for everyone, including a heavy morning-line favorite in Race 1 and a compelling longshot angle in Race 2. The remaining five races — including the Stakes in Race 5 — are available to TrackWiz subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:30 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming opener where the morning-line favorite carries a massive ratings edge over the field — but a pair of mid-priced contenders could make this more interesting than it looks on paper.

win7American WittML 4/5

American Witt (7) is the clear standout here, posting a TrackWiz rating of 90 — more than 18 points clear of the next-best horse in the field. Trainer Jerry Gourneau sends him out as the heavy 4/5 chalk, and with an avg speed figure of 52 matching most of the field, the edge is in overall quality, not just raw pace. In maiden claiming company, a horse this superior on ratings rarely gets beat when he fires his race. Jockey Damario Bynoe gets the call and should have no trouble settling into a trip in a field that doesn't project much early firepower.

place5I ConduitML 4/1

I Conduit (5) is our place pick with a solid 71.31 rating and the top avg speed figure in the field at 54, giving him a legitimate pace edge over most rivals. Trainer Perry Cavanaugh has him priced at 4/1 on the morning line, which feels right — he profiles as a worthy exacta partner with the favorite. If American Witt has any trouble, I Conduit is the most likely horse to capitalize.

show1Pleasant TimeML 5/1

Pleasant Time (1) rounds out our exotic ticket at 5/1 on the morning line with a 59.62 rating — third-best in the field. Trainer Steven Thompson and jockey Roger Hewitt team up on a horse who should be comfortable in this class. As a show play or trifecta inclusion, the odds make Pleasant Time worth the spot.

Race 2

1:00 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

A competitive allowance optional claiming field at 7½ furlongs where three horses are separated by fewer than five points on ratings — and the morning-line underdog leads the way.

win5SmokeintheairML 7/1

Smokeintheair (5) is our top selection at 7/1 despite posting the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 81.25 — that's a genuine overlay if the morning line holds near post time. Trainer M. L. Pierce has a horse with a 20% career win rate, and at this distance over dirt, avg speed figures of 51 are right in line with most of the field. The value case here is strong: a horse rated best in the race going off at morning-line 7/1 in an allowance optional claiming field deserves serious attention. Jockey Sven Balroop gets the mount and should appreciate the extra distance of 7½ furlongs.

place3Bati KingML 5/1

Bati King (3) is right on Smokeintheair's heels with an 80.08 rating and the best avg speed figure in the race at 53 — only 1.17 points separate the two on our model. Trainer Wendy Anderson's runner carries a 22% career win rate and goes postward at 5/1, which is fair value for a horse who could easily win this thing outright. Trifecta builders should have him near the top of their tickets.

show2Jacks Spring BreakML 2/1

Jacks Spring Break (2) draws the show spot with a 76.27 rating and the most respected morning line at 2/1 — making him the public's choice despite ranking third in our model. Trainer Jared Brown has a reliable runner here, and while a 17% career win rate isn't eye-catching, the consistency to hit the board makes him a logical show play and exacta wheel component.

Race 3

1:25 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

This mile claiming feature features a genuine pace-vs.-class battle — the top-rated horse opens at 6/1 while the morning-line chalk sits more than four points behind on our model, setting up an intriguing value scenario.

win2No Show No CallML 6/1

No Show No Call (2) leads our analysis with the field's top rating of 82.71 and an outstanding 38% career win rate — one of the strongest winning percentages in the entire day's card. Despite that, trainer Mike Taphorn's runner opens at 6/1 on the morning line, a legitimate overlay for a horse this accomplished. Jockey Damario Bynoe, who we see multiple times today, picks up the mount on what projects as the most complete horse in this claiming field. At a mile on dirt, a horse with proven winning form at this level should get every opportunity to land on top.

place4Burn Jakey BurnML 2/1

Burn Jakey Burn (4) is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 with a strong 78.84 rating, and trainer Wendy Anderson — also sending out the Soaringforthesun — clearly has strong representation in this race. A 22% career win rate is respectable, and the avg speed figure of 51 is competitive with the top horses. While our model slots No Show No Call ahead, Burn Jakey Burn's favoritism isn't without merit and makes for a logical place play.

show5Omaha WarriorML 4/1

Omaha Warrior (5) offers interesting show value at 4/1 with a 66.51 rating and an impressive 33% career win rate for trainer Monique Goulet. That win percentage stands out — it suggests a horse who tends to run well when he fires. Rachaad Knights takes the mount on a horse who should get into a comfortable rhythm going a mile and could easily pick up a piece of this field.

The free portion of today's card kicks off with American Witt in the opener, a 4/5 morning-line chalk in a maiden claiming sprint who our models rate at a sharp 90. From there, Race 2 features one of the more intriguing value plays on the card — Smokeintheair at 7/1 in an Allowance Optional Claiming route. A 7/1 shot with an 81-plus TrackWiz rating in that kind of company deserves serious attention, and the 7½-furlong distance on a consistent dirt surface suits a presser or stalker type nicely.

Race 3 rounds out the free picks with No Show No Call going a flat mile in a claiming field. At 6/1 on the morning line with an 82-plus rating, this one profiles as a pace scenario play — a horse that could benefit if the speed gets loose early on the front end. All three free races are on dirt under identical conditions, and a stable, fast track today could mean speed figures translate cleanly across the card. Keep that in mind when building your tickets.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

1:50 AM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A claiming sprint at 7 furlongs where the morning-line favorite is not the top-rated horse — Brown Liaison offers a compelling longshot case while the public money looks to be landing in the wrong spot.

win4Brown LiaisonML 12/1

Brown Liaison (4) is our top pick at a juicy 12/1 morning line, yet carries a 73.96 rating — the highest in the field by a clear margin. Trainer Robert J. Haar saddles a horse with a 20% career win rate and the field's best avg speed figure of 54, suggesting real tactical pace advantage. When a horse rates this far ahead of the field but opens at double-digit odds, that's a discrepancy our model flags immediately. Jockey Nathan Haar gets the mount in what projects as a well-live longshot play — top TrackWiz score, best speed figure, and big odds is a combination you don't ignore.

place7NeighneighML 3/1

Neighneigh (7) slots in as our place pick with a 64.25 rating and a solid 23% career win rate for trainer Demetris Topouzis. The 3/1 morning line makes this a reasonable price for a horse that profiles as a mid-pack stalker who can close into the placings in a 7-furlong dirt sprint. Jockey Antonio Whitehall knows Assiniboia well and should engineer a clean trip.

show2Highlander HoneyML 5/1

Highlander Honey (2) rounds out our selections at 5/1 on the morning line with a 64.02 rating and a 16% career win rate. Trainer Fred Rawson's runner is virtually deadlocked with Neighneigh on our model, meaning the difference between place and show on the ticket is razor-thin. At 5/1, Highlander Honey offers decent exotic value and deserves a spot in your trifecta keys.

Race 5

2:15 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Dirt

Stakes day at Assiniboia and this mile feature is a two-horse battle at the top — but the pace scenario and the field depth could give a couple of longer-priced runners a say in the outcome.

win2Mechanic SusieML EVN

Mechanic Susie (2) heads our card as the even-money morning-line choice and she earns that status, posting a 90 rating — the top score in a stakes field and matching the highest mark we've seen today. Trainer Elton Dickey sends out a mare with a 44% career win rate, which is elite by any standard, and an avg speed figure of 53 that holds up well in this company. At even money you're not getting a bargain, but you are getting the most complete horse in the race. Jockey Antonio Whitehall pairs nicely with a horse this talented at this level.

place1Rise AgainML 3/1

Rise Again (1) is nearly as formidable as the favorite — an 87.05 rating and a remarkable 50% career win rate under trainer Michael Nault make this one of the strongest place profiles you'll find on a card. At 3/1, the morning line is fair for a horse who wins half her starts. If Mechanic Susie has any off day, Rise Again is the most dangerous horse in the field to exploit it.

show6Clippity CopML 4/1

Clippity Cop (6) gives trainer Michael Nault a second runner in the race and offers genuine show value at 4/1 morning line. A 68.57 rating and a 50% career win rate are eye-catching — that win percentage matches Rise Again and exceeds several of the higher-rated horses. The 4/1 price in the show position makes this an attractive exotic play in a race dominated by the top two.

Race 6

2:40 AM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A wide-open 7-furlong claiming race where two horses — one a morning-line overlay, one the public's pick — rate significantly above the rest of the field, setting up a clear top-pair scenario.

win4In FormML 3/1

In Form (4) leads our analysis with the field's top rating of 87.08 and a 28% career win rate for trainer Monique Goulet. Going off at 3/1 on the morning line, this is a horse the public respects — and our model agrees. Jockey Rachaad Knights gets the mount on a runner with an avg speed of 52 that fits perfectly for 7 furlongs on Assiniboia's dirt. The combination of top rating, double-digit win percentage, and fair odds makes In Form our most confident selection in this race.

place1BetterlucknexttimeML 6/1

Betterlucknexttime (1) is our place pick at 6/1 with an 81.06 rating and a strong 33% career win rate under trainer Michael Nault. That win percentage is the best in the field, and a 6/1 morning line on a horse with those credentials looks like genuine value. Jockey Antonio Whitehall rides, and the two-point gap between Betterlucknexttime and In Form on our model means this is a near-miss situation — not a horse you want to leave off your exactas.

show5Happy CamperML 9/5

Happy Camper (5) is the morning-line second choice at 9/5 yet rates only third on our model at 52.61 — suggesting the public may be a touch too sweet on this one. Trainer Ryan Desjarlais sends out a horse with a 13% career win rate that gives pause, but the 9/5 market price indicates real perceived ability. As a show play or trifecta inclusion, Happy Camper's public support keeps him relevant even if our ratings have him a rung below the top two.

Race 7

3:05 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A 5½-furlong dirt sprint with genuine pace firepower throughout — but one horse separates herself from the pack on our model while a pair of value runners lurk for exotic players.

win5Mystic SongML 7/2

Mystic Song (5) is the standout in this field, posting an 86.35 rating that's more than eight points clear of the next-best horse, and an extraordinary 57% career win rate — the best single-horse win percentage we've seen on today's entire card. Trainer Carl Norman Anderson has this filly primed, and at 7/2 on the morning line, the price is fair for a horse who wins more than half her starts. Jockey Shavon Townsend picks up the mount on what looks like a genuine class standout in a claiming sprint. Speed figures back it up — 53 avg matches the field's best.

place3Not So SwiftML 6/1

Not So Swift (3) is the interesting play at 6/1 with a 78.32 rating and a 16% career win rate for trainer Tiffany Husbands. The name is ironic — avg speed of 53 ties for the field's best and puts this horse right in the mix in what should be a pace-pressured 5½-furlong sprint. Jockey Damario Bynoe aboard a horse rated second-best in the field at more than 6/1 is exactly the kind of overlay our model is designed to identify.

show1ArikaraML 3/1

Arikara (1) rounds out the ticket at 3/1 morning line with a 73.55 rating and a strong 34% career win rate for trainer Robert Maybin. That win percentage trails only Mystic Song in this field and suggests a consistent performer who finds the winner's circle regularly. Jockey Javaniel R. Patterson has the rail post to navigate, but in a short field at 5½ furlongs, Arikara's combination of rating and winning consistency makes the show spot well-deserved.

Race 8

3:30 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The closing 6-furlong dirt claiming race features a clear ratings leader who comes in as the second choice on the morning line — creating a nice value angle against a field where the public's top choice doesn't match up as well on paper.

win6WeekendindelmarML 2/1

Weekendindelmar (6) tops our model in the finale with the race's highest rating at 88.54 and an avg speed figure of 54 — best in the field. Trainer Robert Maybin and jockey Antonio Whitehall team up on a horse that opens at 2/1, which feels like the right neighborhood given the demonstrated quality edge. A 16% career win rate isn't dominant, but the overall rating profile suggests a horse that has been running at a higher level than today's competition might demand. Lean on the top rating and best speed figure in the closer.

place3NeytiriML 7/2

Neytiri (3) gives trainer Lise Pruitt a chance at the placing with an 79.54 rating and an avg speed of 52 that's right in the mix. The 7/2 morning line is reasonable for a horse rated second on the TrackWiz model, and a 18% career win rate shows enough ability to hit the board in claiming company. Jockey Sven Balroop should be able to find clear running in a seven-horse field going 6 furlongs.

show1Ms BumblebeeML 12/1

Ms Bumblebee (1) is the eye-catcher in the show spot — a 12/1 morning line overlays a 71.91 rating and, crucially, the field's highest avg speed figure at 55. That speed number is a full point ahead of Weekendindelmar and two points clear of most of the field. Trainer Robert J. Haar pairs with jockey Nathan Haar on a horse whose raw speed is genuine even if the 5% career win rate looks modest. At 12/1, the pace edge and solid rating make Ms Bumblebee a legitimate longshot show play and trifecta inclusion.

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Bottom line for Wednesday at Assiniboia: great conditions, a real Stakes race to sink your teeth into, and three free best bets to get you started — American Witt, Smokeintheair, and No Show No Call. Subscribers get the complete picture, including pace breakdowns, exotic ticket structures, and analysis on all five premium races. Good luck at the windows, and as always — bet smart.

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