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Assiniboia Picks & Predictions — September 8, 2026

September 8, 20268 racesAll Assiniboia picks

This card ran on September 8, 2026.

Best bets at Assiniboia, September 8, 2026

Race 14DelvecchioML 4/18:30 PM EDT

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It's a beautiful Tuesday at Assiniboia Downs — clear skies, 62°F, and a fast dirt track that should reward horses with early foot. Eight races are on the card today, ranging from maiden specials to a featured Stakes sprint, and there's plenty to sink your teeth into from first call to the finale.

The headliner is Race 3, a 5½-furlong Stakes race where My Kid's Said No shows up as a heavy morning-line favorite at 2/5. That kind of price makes exotic plays tricky, but the presence of a standout can open up real value underneath. Meanwhile, the claiming ranks are loaded with competitive fields across the card, setting up nicely for multi-race sequences.

With firm footing and good visibility all day, pace scenarios should play out true — meaning speed that's earned on the clock, not borrowed on a sloppy surface. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning line underestimates a pair of horses with strong TrackWiz ratings, setting up a potential upset over the 6/5 public favorite in this 6-furlong dirt claimer.

win4DelvecchioML 4/1

Delvecchio (No. 4) carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 85.62 and goes postward at a juicy 4/1 morning line — that's a significant disconnect from his underlying numbers. His 20% career win rate is solid for this level, and pairing him with Javaniel R. Patterson gives the barn a confident rider who can find the right spot in a six-horse field. Trainer Tom Gardipy, Jr. also saddles Beckett's Best today, so he has a strong read on how this race is likely to set up. At the price, Delvecchio is our clear top selection.

place2Lt. NormML 2/1

Lt. Norm (No. 2) rates second in the field at 77.92 and posts the same average speed figure (53) as Delvecchio, making him a legitimate threat to hit the board. His 2/1 morning line reflects public respect, and Christopher Roy Mamdeen in the irons adds a confident booking for trainer Sherri Leanne Laing. If Delvecchio fires at his rating ceiling, Lt. Norm looks like the most likely horse to chase him home.

show5Rochester's FinestML 10/1

Rochester's Finest (No. 5) sits at 10/1 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 60 — not flashy, but enough to earn a spot in the exotics at that price. A 19% career win rate suggests this horse knows how to compete, and trainer Perry Cavanaugh has had runners show up at long odds on the Assiniboia lawn before. No speed figure is listed, which introduces some uncertainty, but the value in a trifecta spot at double-digit odds is hard to pass up.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

9:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

A single horse dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this 7½-furlong claiming affair, but a pair of barn-mates in the Ryan Desjarlais corner could complicate the exacta order.

win5Little EddieML 2/1

Little Eddie (No. 5) is the class of this field, posting a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 that puts him nearly 20 points clear of the next-best runner — Borderland at 68.23. He's 2/1 on the morning line, so the public is on board, but the rating gap here is wide enough that he looks legitimately hard to beat rather than a vulnerable chalk. A 15% career win rate is respectable, and trainer Ryan Desjarlais also runs Amma Jaw Dropper today, meaning this barn ships a two-pronged attack and knows the pace scenario inside and out.

place2BorderlandML 5/2

Borderland (No. 2) rates second in the field at 68.23 and goes at 5/2, which is fair value for a horse that figures to be chasing the pace over this 7½-furlong trip. His 6% career win rate is modest, but the place position doesn't require a win — it requires a staying effort, and trainer Jerry Gourneau has him spotted correctly at this distance. He gets the nod over the other mid-packers for that consistent speed figure of 52.

show6Amma Jaw DropperML 8/1

Amma Jaw Dropper (No. 6) is a trainer-mate of the win pick and boasts an eye-catching 28% career win rate — the highest in the field. She's 8/1 on the morning line, which looks like fair value given that strike rate, and Rachaad Knights takes the mount for Desjarlais. Her average speed (51) trails the top horses slightly, but in a race where Little Eddie draws most of the attention, Amma Jaw Dropper could loom late at a price.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

We're giving every reader a look at three races today, and they cover a nice cross-section of the card. Race 1 kicks things off with Delvecchio at 4/1 morning line in a 6-furlong claimer — a price that offers real value if the pace sets up right. Race 2 stretches out to 7½ furlongs, where Little Eddie draws our top rating among the free picks (88.54) despite being the 2/1 morning-line favorite — solid confidence on a horse that figures to appreciate the added ground. And of course, Race 3 is the Stakes highlight with My Kid's Said No posting a TrackWiz rating of 90, the highest mark on the entire card. On a fast, true dirt track like we're expecting today, that kind of figure tends to hold up.

The common thread across these three free picks? All are on dirt sprints or near-sprints in conditions that suit confirmed speed horses. If the early fractions are honest and no one steals a soft lead, each of our top choices projects to be in the right spot at the right time.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

9:25 PM EDT

Stakes · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A dominant public choice sits at 2/5 in this stakes sprint, but several lightly-raced runners with perfect records make the exotics intriguing underneath.

win3My Kid's Said NoML 2/5

My Kid's Said No (No. 3) is as close to a sure thing as you'll find on a horse racing card — a 90 TrackWiz rating, a 50% career win rate, the top average speed figure in the field at 55, and a 2/5 morning line that tells you the market agrees. Trainer Tena Birdwell has this horse ready, and Shavon Townsend gets a gift booking here. The only question is whether the 5½-furlong distance over dirt brings out a sharper field effort, but there's no rating in this group that comes close to challenging.

place2Solid ConnectionML 6/1

Solid Connection (No. 2) is a fascinating underneath play — a 100% career win rate (unbeaten in all starts) going at 6/1 in a stakes sprint. The TrackWiz rating of 51.67 reflects a limited sample size, but trainer Wendy Anderson has found a spot where this horse can show its best. Kerron Khelawan picks up the mount and knows how to navigate a stakes pace scenario. If My Kid's Said No hits a rare off day, Solid Connection could grab the place at a generous price.

show5Midnight BulletML 8/1

Midnight Bullet (No. 5) also carries a perfect career record and draws in at 8/1, making the show position an intriguing value angle in the exotics. Trainer Jose Silva, Jr. has him ready for this stakes test, and Luis A. Fuentes takes the call. No average speed figure is available, so there's inherent uncertainty about how fast he's actually been running — but an unbeaten record in a 48.33-rated package at 8/1 is worth covering in the trifecta.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 4

9:50 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

With every horse in this maiden special weight still looking for a first win, the TrackWiz ratings separate a tight cluster at the top from the rest — expect a pace battle among several first-time-to-the-board runners.

win5C J's MayzeeML 2/1

C J's Mayzee (No. 5) tops the field with the highest TrackWiz rating at 58.33 and draws in at 2/1 — a morning line that fairly reflects her standing as the top selection. Trainer Jared Brown places his horses well, and Kerron Khelawan is a confident booking in a field of maiden first-timers and winless returners. Her average speed of 52 matches the pace of the better-credentialed runners, and in a wide-open maiden field, the highest rating plus a sharp jockey is a combination worth trusting.

place9Buckdens SpiritML 5/2

Buckdens Spirit (No. 9) trails C J's Mayzee by less than a full rating point at 57.5 and goes off at 5/2 — meaning the morning line makers see a very similar race between these two. Trainer Steven Gaskin puts Damario Bynoe aboard, a capable rider who can settle a maiden and find daylight in the stretch. In an all-maiden field over 5½ furlongs, both of the top-rated runners landing on the board together is a realistic outcome.

show4DeputizeML 6/1

Deputize (No. 4) holds the third-best TrackWiz rating at 51.67 and draws in at 6/1, offering some value as the third wheel in an exotic ticket. Trainer Michael Nault enters two runners today (Deputize and Beer Budget), which signals confidence in his barn's readiness. No average speed figure is available for Deputize, but his 6/1 morning line makes him a cost-effective inclusion in trifectas beneath the two top picks.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 5

10:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Three horses are separated by just ten rating points at the top of this six-furlong claiming race, setting up what could be a genuine pace battle through the stretch.

win1Piccata PrinceML 5/2

Piccata Prince (No. 1) leads all runners with a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 and posts the field's best average speed figure at 54 — tied with Rockets Red Flair and Fleet of Hoof but with a higher overall rating advantage. He draws in at 5/2, which is reasonable value given that he tops the ratings while going off at the second-shortest price. Trainer Mike Taphorn hands the mount to Javaniel R. Patterson, a sharp pairing in a six-horse sprint where the rail post is workable. A 11% career win rate is modest, but the speed and rating package argues for a stronger performance at this level.

place3Rockets Red FlairML 4/1

Rockets Red Flair (No. 3) matches Piccata Prince with a 54 average speed figure and holds a 84.55 TrackWiz rating — this horse is not far behind at all. A 22% career win rate is the strongest in the field among the contenders, suggesting trainer Victoria Morse has found a live spot here. At 4/1, Rockets Red Flair is the horse most likely to make life difficult for the favorite and land on the board.

show4Fleet of HoofML 3/1

Fleet of Hoof (No. 4) completes the top-three cluster with a 77.44 rating and the same 54 average speed figure as the top two selections. At 3/1, the morning line respects him, and trainer Dale Zawislak sends Christopher Roy Mamdeen — who is riding a full card today — to the saddle. If the race devolves into a pace battle between the top two, Fleet of Hoof could come rallying for a piece at a solid price.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 6

10:40 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile allowance with a clear rating leader at 9/5, but three other horses bunched in the low-to-mid 70s make the place and show spots genuinely competitive.

win2Don't Fire JoeML 9/5

Don't Fire Joe (No. 2) holds the top TrackWiz rating at 84.7 and backs it up with a strong 25% career win rate — that kind of consistency in the win column gives serious confidence at 9/5 odds. Trainer Perry Cavanaugh sends Renaldo Cumberbatch to ride, a booking that reflects the barn's confidence over this one-mile dirt route. While his average speed of 52 is mid-range in this field, the rating gap at the top is convincing enough to make him the anchor of any exotic ticket.

place7AcquireML 4/1

Acquire (No. 7) rates fourth in the field at 73.85 but draws in at 4/1, making him arguably the best value play in a race where the morning line seems to underestimate his underlying numbers. His 20% career win rate is among the stronger marks in this allowance field, and trainer Jason Homer puts Shavon Townsend aboard. With a one-mile trip favoring horses who can settle and sustain, Acquire's profile fits the distance nicely.

show5Charlie's PrizeML 3/1

Charlie's Prize (No. 5) rates third in the field at 71.18 and draws in at 3/1, so the public is already on him — but there's a reason for it. A 14% career win rate and an average speed of 52 slot him right in the mix of this allowance field, and trainer Charlene Miller places him well. Antonio Whitehall is a solid rider who can position a horse patient over a mile, making Charlie's Prize a legitimate show contender worth including in your exotics.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 7

11:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A heavily-favored even-money entry faces a legitimate challenger lurking at 6/1 in this nine-horse claiming sprint, with a deep field that could produce a chaotic pace scenario.

win9Golden CheeroML EVN

Golden Cheero (No. 9) opens at even money and earns it — an 87.81 TrackWiz rating is the tops in this field by five points, and a 16% career win rate is workable at this claiming level. Trainer Carl Norman Anderson puts Javaniel R. Patterson aboard, who has been one of the busiest and most effective riders on today's card. In a nine-horse field at 6 furlongs, breaking from the outside can be a concern, but Golden Cheero's rating edge provides a meaningful cushion.

place5Little TribuneML 6/1

Little Tribune (No. 5) sits second in the field ratings at 82.71 — that's a genuinely close race on paper — and draws in at 6/1, which looks like underlay territory given his underlying numbers. Trainer Robert Maybin sends Roger Hewitt to ride, a pairing with local knowledge of the Assiniboia layout. A 10% career win rate won't set the world on fire, but the place position at 6/1 is a compelling value angle.

show4Call DarlaML 3/1

Call Darla (No. 4) rates third in this field at 71.77 and goes off at a tidy 3/1, making her a solid anchor for the show position in your trifecta. Trainer Perry Cavanaugh — who also saddles today's Race 6 win pick — puts Renaldo Cumberbatch in the irons, and that's a barn-jockey combo that tends to get the most out of their runners. A 52 average speed and 11% career win rate suggest a consistent if unspectacular profile, which is all you need to justify the show.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 8

11:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

An eight-horse claiming sprint features a clear top-two in the TrackWiz ratings but with a standout speed figure outlier that could shake up the pace scenario at 5½ furlongs.

win1Flipping FishML 3/1

Flipping Fish (No. 1) leads the field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and a 55 average speed — among the fastest in the field — while also carrying a strong 21% career win rate. Trainer Jerry Gourneau sends Damario Bynoe to the rail, which is a favorable post draw in a 5½-furlong sprint where early position matters. At 3/1, the morning line underestimates the rating advantage slightly, making this the best-value top pick on the back half of the card.

place4Mysterious TaleML 7/1

Mysterious Tale (No. 4) rates second at 80.62 and posts the standout speed figure of the race at 57 — that's a full two points clear of Flipping Fish and five points ahead of most of the field. Trainer Robert J. Haar books his own son Nathan for the mount, a barn-jockey dynamic that often means a horse is cranked and ready. At 7/1, the morning line makes Mysterious Tale one of the most intriguing value plays on the entire card — if that 57 speed figure translates, this is a legitimate winning threat as well.

show7Call the CavalryML 9/2

Call the Cavalry (No. 7) rates third in the field at 71.59 and posts a solid 54 average speed figure that puts him in the mix of faster horses in this sprint. Trainer Craig Robert Smith sends Rachaad Knights to ride, and with a 17% career win rate, this horse has shown he can compete. At 9/2, the show position in the trifecta makes Call the Cavalry a reasonable cost-effective inclusion beneath two high-ceiling selections.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

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A clear afternoon, a fast track, and eight races headlined by a Stakes showdown — Assiniboia is serving up a quality Tuesday card. My Kid's Said No is the name to know in Race 3, but the real opportunities may be in the claiming races where value lives. Top free picks: Delvecchio (R1), Little Eddie (R2), and My Kid's Said No (R3). For pace maps, exotic ticket builds, and full analysis on Races 4–8, subscribe to TrackWiz Premium and get the complete edge before first post.

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