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Assiniboia Picks & Predictions — September 8, 2026

8 racesAll Assiniboia picks

It's a beautiful Tuesday at Assiniboia Downs — clear skies, 62°F, and a fast dirt track that should reward horses with early foot. Eight races are on the card today, ranging from maiden specials to a featured Stakes sprint, and there's plenty to sink your teeth into from first call to the finale.

The headliner is Race 3, a 5½-furlong Stakes race where My Kid's Said No shows up as a heavy morning-line favorite at 2/5. That kind of price makes exotic plays tricky, but the presence of a standout can open up real value underneath. Meanwhile, the claiming ranks are loaded with competitive fields across the card, setting up nicely for multi-race sequences.

With firm footing and good visibility all day, pace scenarios should play out true — meaning speed that's earned on the clock, not borrowed on a sloppy surface. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning line underestimates a pair of horses with strong TrackWiz ratings, setting up a potential upset over the 6/5 public favorite in this 6-furlong dirt claimer.

win4DelvecchioML 4/1

Delvecchio (No. 4) carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 85.62 and goes postward at a juicy 4/1 morning line — that's a significant disconnect from his underlying numbers. His 20% career win rate is solid for this level, and pairing him with Javaniel R. Patterson gives the barn a confident rider who can find the right spot in a six-horse field. Trainer Tom Gardipy, Jr. also saddles Beckett's Best today, so he has a strong read on how this race is likely to set up. At the price, Delvecchio is our clear top selection.

place2Lt. NormML 2/1

Lt. Norm (No. 2) rates second in the field at 77.92 and posts the same average speed figure (53) as Delvecchio, making him a legitimate threat to hit the board. His 2/1 morning line reflects public respect, and Christopher Roy Mamdeen in the irons adds a confident booking for trainer Sherri Leanne Laing. If Delvecchio fires at his rating ceiling, Lt. Norm looks like the most likely horse to chase him home.

show5Rochester's FinestML 10/1

Rochester's Finest (No. 5) sits at 10/1 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 60 — not flashy, but enough to earn a spot in the exotics at that price. A 19% career win rate suggests this horse knows how to compete, and trainer Perry Cavanaugh has had runners show up at long odds on the Assiniboia lawn before. No speed figure is listed, which introduces some uncertainty, but the value in a trifecta spot at double-digit odds is hard to pass up.

Race 2

Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

A single horse dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this 7½-furlong claiming affair, but a pair of barn-mates in the Ryan Desjarlais corner could complicate the exacta order.

win5Little EddieML 2/1

Little Eddie (No. 5) is the class of this field, posting a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 that puts him nearly 20 points clear of the next-best runner — Borderland at 68.23. He's 2/1 on the morning line, so the public is on board, but the rating gap here is wide enough that he looks legitimately hard to beat rather than a vulnerable chalk. A 15% career win rate is respectable, and trainer Ryan Desjarlais also runs Amma Jaw Dropper today, meaning this barn ships a two-pronged attack and knows the pace scenario inside and out.

place2BorderlandML 5/2

Borderland (No. 2) rates second in the field at 68.23 and goes at 5/2, which is fair value for a horse that figures to be chasing the pace over this 7½-furlong trip. His 6% career win rate is modest, but the place position doesn't require a win — it requires a staying effort, and trainer Jerry Gourneau has him spotted correctly at this distance. He gets the nod over the other mid-packers for that consistent speed figure of 52.

show6Amma Jaw DropperML 8/1

Amma Jaw Dropper (No. 6) is a trainer-mate of the win pick and boasts an eye-catching 28% career win rate — the highest in the field. She's 8/1 on the morning line, which looks like fair value given that strike rate, and Rachaad Knights takes the mount for Desjarlais. Her average speed (51) trails the top horses slightly, but in a race where Little Eddie draws most of the attention, Amma Jaw Dropper could loom late at a price.

Race 3

Stakes · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A dominant public choice sits at 2/5 in this stakes sprint, but several lightly-raced runners with perfect records make the exotics intriguing underneath.

win3My Kid's Said NoML 2/5

My Kid's Said No (No. 3) is as close to a sure thing as you'll find on a horse racing card — a 90 TrackWiz rating, a 50% career win rate, the top average speed figure in the field at 55, and a 2/5 morning line that tells you the market agrees. Trainer Tena Birdwell has this horse ready, and Shavon Townsend gets a gift booking here. The only question is whether the 5½-furlong distance over dirt brings out a sharper field effort, but there's no rating in this group that comes close to challenging.

place2Solid ConnectionML 6/1

Solid Connection (No. 2) is a fascinating underneath play — a 100% career win rate (unbeaten in all starts) going at 6/1 in a stakes sprint. The TrackWiz rating of 51.67 reflects a limited sample size, but trainer Wendy Anderson has found a spot where this horse can show its best. Kerron Khelawan picks up the mount and knows how to navigate a stakes pace scenario. If My Kid's Said No hits a rare off day, Solid Connection could grab the place at a generous price.

show5Midnight BulletML 8/1

Midnight Bullet (No. 5) also carries a perfect career record and draws in at 8/1, making the show position an intriguing value angle in the exotics. Trainer Jose Silva, Jr. has him ready for this stakes test, and Luis A. Fuentes takes the call. No average speed figure is available, so there's inherent uncertainty about how fast he's actually been running — but an unbeaten record in a 48.33-rated package at 8/1 is worth covering in the trifecta.

We're giving every reader a look at three races today, and they cover a nice cross-section of the card. Race 1 kicks things off with Delvecchio at 4/1 morning line in a 6-furlong claimer — a price that offers real value if the pace sets up right. Race 2 stretches out to 7½ furlongs, where Little Eddie draws our top rating among the free picks (88.54) despite being the 2/1 morning-line favorite — solid confidence on a horse that figures to appreciate the added ground. And of course, Race 3 is the Stakes highlight with My Kid's Said No posting a TrackWiz rating of 90, the highest mark on the entire card. On a fast, true dirt track like we're expecting today, that kind of figure tends to hold up.

The common thread across these three free picks? All are on dirt sprints or near-sprints in conditions that suit confirmed speed horses. If the early fractions are honest and no one steals a soft lead, each of our top choices projects to be in the right spot at the right time.

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A clear afternoon, a fast track, and eight races headlined by a Stakes showdown — Assiniboia is serving up a quality Tuesday card. My Kid's Said No is the name to know in Race 3, but the real opportunities may be in the claiming races where value lives. Top free picks: Delvecchio (R1), Little Eddie (R2), and My Kid's Said No (R3). For pace maps, exotic ticket builds, and full analysis on Races 4–8, subscribe to TrackWiz Premium and get the complete edge before first post.