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Assiniboia Picks & Predictions — September 2, 2026

September 2, 20267 racesAll Assiniboia picks

Results are in — see the official Assiniboia chart and payouts (our top pick won 2 of 7)→

Happy Wednesday from Assiniboia Downs, where a pleasant partly-cloudy afternoon at 73°F sets the stage for a tight seven-race card on September 2nd. Conditions look ideal for fast times on the dirt — no rain in the forecast, no excuses for the horses.

Today's card is a nice mix of claiming races to kick things off, a pair of allowance optional claiming events in the middle of the card where the real class questions get answered, and a maiden special weight in Race 6 where first-time winners are made. Seven races, plenty of angles, and some legitimate betting opportunities scattered throughout.

Our TrackWiz models have been busy. A few of these races are tighter than the morning lines suggest, and at least one underlay on the board is worth fading hard. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:30 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A clear class divide tops this six-furlong dirt claimer, with Mr. Splash's TrackWiz rating sitting more than 20 points clear of the field — but After the Game at 6/5 will make the public pay to beat him.

win5Mr. SplashML 2/1

Mr. Splash is the standout of this field by almost every metric that matters. His TrackWiz rating of 88.54 is the best in the race by a wide margin, and his 26% career win rate tells you this horse knows how to find the winner's circle. Jockey Rachaad Knights gets the call for trainer Mike Taphorn, and at 2/1 on the morning line, there's still reasonable value attached to a horse that simply grades out at a different level than the competition.

place4After the GameML 6/5

After the Game carries the shortest morning line in the field at 6/5, reflecting public confidence in a horse with a solid 12% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 67.58. Trainer Robert J. Haar saddles him for Antonio Whitehall, and while he's unlikely to overturn Mr. Splash on our numbers, a place finish feels like a reasonable expectation for the morning-line favorite.

show1Main DudeML 8/1

Main Dude opens at 8/1 and represents a sneaky exotics inclusion at the top of the program. His TrackWiz rating of 45.86 leads the remaining horses outside the top two, and a 7% career win rate in claiming company suggests he's competitive enough to land a check. Damario Bynoe aboard keeps the connections honest — he's worth tossing in your trifectas at a price.

Race 2

1:00 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Two horses — J L Copper and Mischievous Intent — are nearly inseparable at the top of the TrackWiz ratings in this six-furlong claimer, setting up a tight pace duel between the 2/1 and 8/5 morning-line choices.

win2J L CopperML 2/1

J L Copper gets our top rating in Race 2 at 88.54, matching the field-best figure we saw from Mr. Splash in the opener. His 20% career win rate is among the strongest in the field, and trainer Jared Brown puts Antonio Whitehall in the saddle — a solid combination. At 2/1 on the morning line, the price isn't flashy, but the underlying numbers make a strong case for him to wire this field.

place4Mischievous IntentML 8/5

Mischievous Intent is no pushover — an 86.37 TrackWiz rating is just a whisker behind J L Copper, and this horse is the morning-line favorite at 8/5. Trainer Jerry Gourneau sends out Dario Dalrymple, and with a 10% career win rate, Mischievous Intent should be competitive late. If J L Copper gets the early lead and sets a moderate pace, Mischievous Intent could be closing into the silver medal.

show6Run Matteo RunML 5/2

Run Matteo Run opened at 5/2 and posts an 18% career win rate, the second-best in this field. Trainer Tiffany Husbands and jockey Mathew Bennett combine for a horse that rates 75.49 on the TrackWiz scale — meaningfully ahead of the rest of the field outside the top two. If the two favorites get into a hot pace duel, Run Matteo Run could be the fresh horse picking up the pieces at a fair price.

Race 3

1:25 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

Switzler Jammin's 30% career win rate and top TrackWiz rating make him a formidable top pick against a morning-line favorite in Northvale Road who could be vulnerable at short odds.

win5Switzler JamminML 9/2

Switzler Jammin is our top selection in Race 3 despite opening at 9/2 — and that's where the value lives. His 30% career win rate is the highest in the field, and his TrackWiz rating of 84.9 leads the pack. Trainer Tom Gardipy, Jr. puts Sheldon Chickeness up, and with an average speed figure of 54 over five furlongs, he's got the raw ability to handle this distance. The morning line undersells him slightly, making this a legitimate best-bet candidate.

place2Northvale RoadML 4/5

Northvale Road is the public's choice at 4/5 on the morning line, and it's not hard to see why — an 80.22 TrackWiz rating and a 22% career win rate with an average speed of 54 put him firmly in the mix. Trainer Michael Nault deploys Antonio Whitehall, one of the more active riders on the Assiniboia circuit. He's the one horse who could easily flip this result if Switzler Jammin misses a beat.

show1RhodesiaML 3/1

Rhodesia rounds out our ticket at 3/1, offering solid value as the third choice in a relatively short field. Her 22% career win rate mirrors Northvale Road's, and a TrackWiz rating of 76.52 keeps her firmly in the conversation. Trainer Monique Goulet teams with Rachaad Knights, and if the two top picks set up a pace battle, Rhodesia could be the logical closer benefiting from a fast early tempo.

The first three races on the card are on the house. In Race 1, Mr. Splash draws our top rating at 88.54 and goes off at a fair 2/1 morning line in a straight claiming sprint at six furlongs — the kind of race where pace scenario matters, and our models like his positioning. Race 2 is a near-mirror image: six furlongs of dirt claiming, and J L Copper shares that same 88.54 rating and 2/1 price. When two horses in consecutive races carry identical top ratings, it tells you the models see similar class and form profiles — worth noting as you build your card. Race 3 tightens up slightly at five furlongs with Switzler Jammin rating out at 84.9 and sitting at 9/2 on the morning line — that's a price worth respecting if the board holds.

One thing to watch across all three free races: Assiniboia's short dirt sprints tend to reward horses that can find a clean path early. A clean break and a ground-saving trip are worth more here than at bigger ovals. Keep that in mind as you handicap the pace scenarios.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

1:50 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Reno dominates the TrackWiz metrics in this allowance optional claimer, but a 60% career win rate on stablemate Ricks Red Storm at 20/1 is the kind of number that makes you look twice.

win4RenoML 6/5

Reno is the standout in Race 4 and it's not particularly close. His TrackWiz rating of 89.71 is the best on the card in this race, his average speed of 57 leads all horses by multiple lengths on paper, and a 25% career win rate confirms this is a horse that runs to his number with regularity. Trainer M. L. Pierce pairs him with Christopher Roy Mamdeen, and at 6/5, he's deservedly the morning-line favorite in allowance optional claiming company.

place2LansdowneML 2/1

Lansdowne checks in at 2/1 and rates second-best in this field with an 81.58 TrackWiz score. His 23% career win rate is excellent for this level, and an average speed of 55 — second only to Reno — suggests he can keep the winner honest on the front end. Trainer Jared Brown puts Kerron Khelawan aboard, and Lansdowne looks like a safe place play in what shapes as a two-horse race at the top.

show6Messi the GreatML 4/1

Messi the Great at 4/1 gives this ticket some upside if the top two get into a speed duel and tire. An 18% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 65.8 put him comfortably clear of the rest of the field, and trainer Sherri Leanne Laing gets Rachaad Knights up — a competent combination. He's the logical third wheel in the exacta and trifecta boxes.

Race 5

2:15 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite Mr. Jaws is a potential upset target here — our TrackWiz model rates him well below the 6/5 price, while Bati King and Preachers Secret offer compelling overlays at 4/1 and 10/1 respectively.

win2Bati KingML 4/1

Bati King opens at 4/1 but posts the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 80.95 — that's a significant overlay in our model. His 23% career win rate is strong for seven-and-a-half furlongs of dirt, and an average speed of 53 gives him the tools to handle the added distance. Trainer Wendy Anderson has Tyrone Nelson aboard, and if Mr. Jaws gets bet down further without the figures to back it up, Bati King at 4/1 could be one of the better value plays on today's card.

place4Preachers SecretML 10/1

Preachers Secret is our value play of the race at 10/1 on the morning line. He's got a 25% career win rate — the highest in this field — and a TrackWiz rating of 76.88 that easily clears the morning-line favorite Mr. Jaws (52.89). Trainer Jason Homer sends out Shavon Townsend, and at a double-digit price, Preachers Secret in the place spot of your exotics could return excellent value if the top two connect.

show1ArioML 5/2

Ario comes in at 5/2 and shows a 23% career win rate, matching Bati King's impressive clip. His TrackWiz rating of 70.86 places him third in the field, ahead of the favorite on our numbers. Trainer M. L. Pierce and jockey Christopher Roy Mamdeen represent a barn that also saddles Reno in Race 4 — they clearly have horses ready today, and Ario's presence in the show slot of your exotics makes sense at a workable price.

Race 6

2:40 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

Maiden Special Weight races are notoriously unpredictable, but Judge Oliver's TrackWiz rating of 88.54 towers over this seven-horse maiden field and makes him a clear top choice despite the inherent uncertainty of first-time and lightly raced runners.

win5Judge OliverML 2/1

Judge Oliver tops this maiden field with a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 — a number that matches some of the best figures we've seen across today's entire card. He opens at a fair 2/1 on the morning line, and trainer Jason Homer, who also conditions Sum Up the Silver in this same race, clearly has a strong opinion about which horse is the better of the two. Jockey Shavon Townsend gets the riding assignment, and with an average speed of 53, Judge Oliver has the physical profile to handle six furlongs of dirt.

place7Tachin UpML 4/1

Tachin Up at 4/1 is our place pick and the second-highest rated horse in this field at 55.00 on the TrackWiz scale. Trainer Robert Maybin, who also runs Mor Famous here, puts Kerron Khelawan aboard — a pilot who's been active across this Assiniboia card. In a maiden race where any runner can surprise, Tachin Up at a shade of odds gives you a decent safety net behind the top pick.

show2Mor FamousML 6/1

Mor Famous opens at 6/1 and earns our show spot with a TrackWiz rating of 51.67 — third-best in this field — though we note no average speed figure is available for him, which adds a layer of uncertainty. Trainer Robert Maybin runs him alongside Tachin Up, suggesting the barn has enough confidence to send two. Jockey Javaniel R. Patterson takes the mount, and at 6/1, Mor Famous is worth including in your trifectas as the most viable third wheel.

Race 7

3:05 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Amplify's TrackWiz rating of 87.08 stands out in a seven-horse closer, and at 3/1 he's an attractive price given the morning-line favorite Jaya Rules rates well below him on our model.

win4AmplifyML 3/1

Amplify is the clear top selection in Race 7 from a TrackWiz perspective. His 87.08 rating is the best in the field, and at 3/1 on the morning line, the market hasn't fully caught up to the numbers. Trainer Jerry Gourneau puts Renaldo Cumberbatch in the irons, and a 14% career win rate in claiming company is respectable. Six furlongs of dirt is a straightforward setup for a horse with his profile, and we think 3/1 represents real overlay value here.

place6Not TrueML 5/2

Not True opens at 5/2 as the second choice on the morning line, and while his 5% career win rate might give casual bettors pause, his TrackWiz rating of 76.38 is comfortably second-best in the field. Trainer Marion Johnston gives the mount to Christopher Roy Mamdeen, who's been busy across today's card. Not True's profile reads like a horse that runs well without always winning — exactly the type you want in the place spot.

show1Rachelle's MemoryML 8/1

Rachelle's Memory at 8/1 is an intriguing exotics inclusion, and trainer Robert J. Haar runs multiple horses in this race — always worth noting when a barn is active. Her TrackWiz rating of 67.38 puts her third in the field, ahead of the morning-line favorite Jaya Rules (60.09) on our numbers. No average speed figure is on file, which adds some mystery, but at 8/1 with a top-three rating in the race, she's worth sprinkling into your trifectas.

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A solid Wednesday card at Assiniboia with plenty of angles to attack. Mr. Splash, J L Copper, and Switzler Jammin headline the free best bets to get your day started. For the full picture — pace projections, exotic ticket strategy, and our complete takes on Races 4 through 7 — subscribe to TrackWiz Premium at /pricing. Good luck, and let's cash some tickets.

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