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Assiniboia Picks & Predictions — August 3, 2026

Monday, August 3, 20267 racesAssiniboia

It's a soggy Monday at Assiniboia Downs as rain has moved in and temperatures sit around 70°F — the kind of conditions that can flip a race result on its head. Seven races are on the card today, and the wet dirt is going to be the story all afternoon. Pay close attention to how horses handled off tracks in their past performances, because mud-lovers are going to have a real edge today.

The card is stacked with three Stakes races — Races 2, 5, and 6 — spread across a mile and up to 1 1/8 miles, giving us some serious distance and class tests to dig into. We've got free analysis on the first three races to get you started, and our full premium breakdown covers the back half of the card where, honestly, some of the most interesting betting opportunities live today.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:30 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A clear top-rated standout sits atop this Allowance Optional Claiming sprint, but a pair of sneaky value runners make the exotics worth building around.

win7SmoocherroML 9/5

Smoocherro (7) is the class of this field by a wide margin, posting a TrackWiz rating of 88.83 — a full 18 points clear of the next rival. Trainer Eugene Burns sends her out with Shavon Townsend aboard, a combo that knows how to win. At 9/5 on the morning line, the price isn't generous, but a 21% career win rate backed by that top rating makes her the right play to anchor your tickets in this 6-furlong dirt sprint.

place5Foothills Blvd.ML 7/1

Foothills Blvd. (5) is the most intriguing horse in the race from a win-percentage standpoint — a career 37% win rate is elite territory for this level, and a TrackWiz rating of 70.34 puts her clearly in the second tier. Roger Hewitt takes the mount for Ralph Zaft, and at 7/1 on the morning line, there's legitimate place value here if Smoocherro hits any trouble.

show3Out too LateML 3/1

Out too Late (3) comes in with a solid 65.27 rating and an average speed figure of 56 — the best raw speed number in the field. Antonio Whitehall is a capable hand in the irons, and trainer Brent Hrymak has her primed at 3/1. She's a natural fit for the show slot in exactas and trifectas, providing a faster early fraction that could set things up nicely for the closers.

Race 2

1:00 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Dirt

A tight three-way stakes battle at a mile on dirt, where the two short-priced favorites are separated by less than 4 rating points — and a 30% winner lurks in between.

win4Mad About MarieML 7/5

Mad About Marie (4) earns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 89.42 and goes as the 7/5 morning-line favorite under Sven Balroop for trainer Steve Keplin, Jr. Her 25% career win rate is respectable, but it's that rating edge over a competitive stakes field that stands out. At a mile on dirt, she projects as the most complete runner here and is worth making the cornerstone of your win wagers.

place2DontgiveupthefightML 8/5

Dontgiveupthefight (2) is no throwaway second pick — a 46% career win rate is exceptional and suggests this horse knows how to hit the wire first. Trainer Robertino Diodoro is one of the sharpest conditioners in the region, and jockey Kimal Santo gets the call. At 8/5 on the morning line, the price is tight, but the place payoff should still offer value in an exacta box with the top selection.

show5WelcometohollywoodML 5/1

Welcometohollywood (5) brings a 30% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 79.78 — the third-best in the field and a legitimate threat to run into the money. Trainer Jared Brown saddles her with Antonio Whitehall, and at 5/1, there's real show value here if the two top choices duke it out on the front end. She's the right price to round out trifecta tickets.

Race 3

1:25 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A wide-open claiming route where the top-rated horse is fighting an oddly low morning line, and a pair of legitimate contenders could make this a solid exacta race.

win8Gallant OakML 2/1

Gallant Oak (8) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.54 and draws Shavon Townsend in the irons for trainer Carman Mustard. The 2/1 morning line reflects public respect, and the average speed figure of 53 ties Beckett's Best for best in the field. Over 1 1/16 miles of dirt, Gallant Oak's combination of rating edge and proven speed makes her the most defensible win play on the card.

place7Beckett's BestML 3/1

Beckett's Best (7) is the other horse worth paying attention to here — a 35% career win rate in this claiming company is a significant angle, suggesting this horse competes hard when properly placed. Neville Stephenson rides for trainer Jerry Gourneau, and at 3/1, the morning line implies the market sees a real threat. The place slot suits a horse with that kind of consistency.

show5Free MakerML 5/1

Free Maker (5) rates third in the field at 58.51 with Sven Balroop up for trainer Fred Rawson. The 5/1 price offers some cushion, and a 13% career win rate in claiming ranks is serviceable — this is a horse that shows up and grinds. In a 9-horse field, landing in the show spot is a realistic outcome, making her a sensible trifecta inclusion.

Our free best bets span Races 1 through 3, and there's a common thread tying them together: horses with class and proven stamina are going to matter even more on a track that's likely playing slow and demanding. Smoocherro opens the card in an Allowance Optional Claiming sprint, posting an 88.83 TrackWiz rating at 9/5 morning line — a short price, but one backed by numbers. Mad About Marie then steps into the spotlight in Race 2's Stakes mile, leading our picks with an 89.42 rating, the top mark on the entire card. And Gallant Oak rounds out the free trio in a Claiming route, rated 88.54 at a fair 2/1 morning line.

The wet surface is a unifying factor across all three: each of these horses projects well under conditions that reward tactical pace and a bit of extra grit. Don't overlook pace scenario in the mud — races can get messy up front, and closers often get an unexpected boost when the track is holding water.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

1:50 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

First-time starters and lightly-raced maidens collide in a wide-open 6-furlong sprint — speed figures are limited, so trainer form and workout patterns carry extra weight here.

win4Judge OliverML 4/1

Judge Oliver (4) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 for trainer Jason Homer, who also saddles He's My Uncle in this race — suggesting Homer has strong entries on both ends of the ticket. Renaldo Cumberbatch gets the mount, and with an average speed figure of 53 and the top rating in the field, Judge Oliver projects as the most ready debut runner in a tricky maiden field. At 4/1 on the morning line, this is one of the better win values on the card.

place10Charlie's PrizeML 5/1

Charlie's Prize (10) rates second in the field at 77.36 with an average speed figure of 53 — matching the top runners on raw ability. Trainer Charlene Miller sends her out with Antonio Whitehall, a capable jockey who can get a green horse to relax and finish. The 5/1 price makes Charlie's Prize an excellent place and exacta partner for the top selection.

show6He's My UncleML 5/2

He's My Uncle (6) checks in at a 69.35 TrackWiz rating with a 53 average speed figure under Shavon Townsend for trainer Jason Homer. Homer having two horses in the same maiden race is worth noting — both Judge Oliver and He's My Uncle carry legitimate numbers, and at 5/2, He's My Uncle is actually the shorter price of the two Homer runners. A show ticket here is reasonable given the trainer's barn depth.

Race 5

2:15 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Dirt

A sneaky stakes mile where the top TrackWiz rating belongs to a 5/1 shot, not the 8/5 favorite — setting up a potential overlay at the top of the ticket.

win1BergheimML 5/1

Bergheim (1) leads all runners with an 84.17 TrackWiz rating despite going off at 5/1 on the morning line — that's a meaningful disconnect the market hasn't fully priced in. Trainer Jerry Gourneau sends him out with Renaldo Cumberbatch, and his 29% career win rate is the best among the top three picks. At a mile on dirt, Bergheim's combination of class rating and overlooked odds makes him the TrackWiz value play in this stakes.

place2JudoML 8/5

Judo (2) rates second in the field at 78.82 and goes as the 8/5 favorite under Sven Balroop for Steve Keplin, Jr. The 27% career win rate is solid, and Keplin's barn has proven capable at this level — he also saddles Taillights in the same race, showing stable confidence. At short odds, Judo's best role may be anchoring exactas underneath Bergheim.

show7Go Go BossML 3/1

Go Go Boss (7) brings a 69.19 rating and a 25% career win rate to a field where the top four are separated by just 15 points. Trainer Robertino Diodoro gets Kimal Santo in the saddle, a sharp combination that fires at this distance. At 3/1, Go Go Boss is fairly priced as a show selection and adds depth to trifecta constructions.

Race 6

2:40 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

One of the most chaotic-looking stakes races on the card — a 15/1 morning-line runner tops the TrackWiz ratings, signaling a potential major price play at 1 1/8 miles.

win8Prime SuspectML 15/1

Prime Suspect (8) is the TrackWiz top-rated horse in this field at 69.58 — and he's sitting at 15/1 on the morning line, which is exactly the kind of overlay handicappers dream about. Sven Balroop takes the mount for trainer Steve Keplin, Jr., who has shown a knack for finding spots. A 16% career win rate in stakes competition isn't flashy, but when the rating says one thing and the odds say another, that's the play.

place9Forty TwentyML 4/1

Forty Twenty (9) is right on Prime Suspect's heels with a 69.40 rating and a 33% career win rate — the latter being among the best in the field. Trainer Robertino Diodoro gets Kimal Santo up, a combination that consistently delivers at this level. At 4/1, the morning line reflects legitimate respect, and Forty Twenty makes sense as a place anchor in exactas and trifectas.

show1Really RalisML 8/1

Really Ralis (1) has the most eye-popping career win percentage in the entire race card — 75% — and checks in with a 68.28 TrackWiz rating. Trainer Cindy Krasner has Kerron Khelawan in the irons, and at 8/1, there's show value worth noting. That win rate in any context demands attention, even if the overall rating places her just outside the top two.

Race 7

3:05 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Trainer Carl Norman Anderson sends out the top two TrackWiz-rated horses in this claiming mile, making a potential barn sweep the most interesting storyline of the race.

win1Hey Big UnML 3/1

Hey Big Un (1) leads the field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and goes at 3/1 on the morning line under Larry Munoz for trainer Carl Norman Anderson. An 18% career win rate is modest, but the rating gap over the third-best horse is substantial — over 17 points. In a 10-horse claiming field at a mile, that kind of edge typically translates, and Munoz is a capable pilot to navigate traffic.

place10Valley VictoryML 5/1

Valley Victory (10) is stablemate to Hey Big Un, both trained by Carl Norman Anderson, and rates second in the field at 81.32. Shavon Townsend takes the call on Valley Victory, and at 5/1, there's excellent place value for a horse with this level of ability. When a barn drops two horses this highly rated in the same race, at minimum one of them hits the board — the exacta combining these two is the obvious structure.

show9Jacks Spring BreakML 5/2

Jacks Spring Break (9) is the public's second choice at 5/2 morning line, rating third in the field at 69.81 under Rachaad Knights for trainer Steve Keplin, Jr. A 14% career win rate keeps expectations measured, but Keplin's barn runs well at this level and Knights knows how to place a horse late in a route. Show tickets here make sense as insurance against the Anderson barn dominating the top two spots.

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Seven races, three Stakes events, and a rain-soaked track that's going to keep everyone honest — Assiniboia is serving up a genuinely compelling Monday card. Start with Mad About Marie in Race 2 as the marquee play of the afternoon, trust the TrackWiz ratings on Smoocherro and Gallant Oak in the free races, and let our premium full-card analysis handle the rest. Good luck out there — and remember, the mud always has the last word.

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