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Assiniboia Picks & Predictions — July 29, 2026

July 29, 20267 racesAll Assiniboia picks

We're heading to Assiniboia Downs on a hot Wednesday afternoon — partly cloudy skies and 89°F on the thermometer as seven races go postward on the main dirt track. That kind of summer heat at a compact oval like ASD can sap late energy from front-runners, so pace scenario and conditioning are going to matter more than usual today.

The card mixes Claiming races, a pair of Allowance Optional Claiming contests, a Maiden Special Weight, and a Stakes race that figures to be the day's headliner. There's plenty of betting interest spread across all seven races, and our TrackWiz analysis has identified some genuine value angles worth targeting — especially in the middle of the card.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:30 AM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A heavy favorite dominates the ratings in this 7-furlong claimer, but the secondary horses are tightly bunched and could offer value in the exotics.

win3Queen of AttitudeML 4/5

Queen of Attitude is the class of this field and it isn't particularly close — her TrackWiz rating of 89.49 towers over everyone else, and a career win rate of 47% is elite at this level. Tabbed at 4/5 on the morning line, the market agrees she's the one to beat. Jockey Christopher Roy Mamdeen gets the call for trainer Robert Maybin, a pairing worth noting. At 7 furlongs on dirt, her profile fits the distance and she's the straightforward win selection.

place1Sherlyn Go GoML 5/1

Sherlyn Go Go sits second in the ratings at 66.27 and brings a solid 28% career win rate to the table — she consistently finishes on or near the board. At 5/1 on the morning line, there's real value if she runs her typical race behind the heavy favorite. Trainer Wendy Anderson and jockey Kerron Khelawan are a familiar combo here at Assiniboia, and this filly looks like a safe place bet in a race where the top finisher may be predictable.

show4AmplifyML 20/1

Amplify is an interesting show play at 20/1 on the morning line with a rating of 62.29 — that's a number that doesn't match the generous odds the oddsmakers have assigned. She shares the same average speed figure as the top horses in the field, suggesting she can keep pace early. Trainer Jerry Gourneau also saddles Jackie Flash in this race, which can sometimes signal a stable that's comfortable in the conditions. At the price, she's worth a small inclusion in exacta and trifecta tickets.

Race 2

1:00 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

This 5.5-furlong claiming sprint has a split at the top — three horses rated in the mid-to-high 60s and 70s are bunched closely enough to make the outcome genuinely uncertain, with some real price horses lurking.

win5Ave's in CommandML 5/1

Ave's in Command earns our top spot with the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 80.12 and an impressive 37% career win rate — that's the kind of number that says this horse shows up to compete. At 5/1 on the morning line, the price is surprisingly generous given the form. Trainer Robert Maybin puts Christopher Roy Mamdeen back in the irons, a reliable combo. At 5.5 furlongs, Ave's in Command's profile suggests she can be forwardly placed and will be tough to run down.

place4Big TicketML 10/1

Big Ticket is a legitimate price play here at 10/1 morning line despite a rating of 76.88 that makes him the second-ranked horse in the field. A 25% career win rate is respectable in claiming company, and his average speed figure of 54 matches the top tier of this group. Trainer Tom Gardipy Jr. also runs Westover and Delvecchio today, but Big Ticket's numbers stand out among the barn's entries. If Ave's in Command leads, Big Ticket has the profile of a stalker who could pick up the pieces.

show6DelvecchioML 2/1

Delvecchio comes in at 2/1 morning line with a rating of 76.84 — nearly identical to Big Ticket — and a 21% career win rate. He's likely to be well-backed by the crowd, which lowers his show value somewhat, but the numbers say he belongs right here and should hit the board with regularity. Trainer Gardipy has multiple horses in this race so post-time attention to any jockey switches or trainer signals in the paddock is worthwhile. He's the safe exotic anchor.

Race 3

1:25 AM EDT

Stakes · 5 fur · Dirt

A stakes sprint at 5 furlongs that essentially revolves around one proven horse against a group of lightly raced or unproven rivals — pace shape will matter but the top horse brings a significant experience edge.

win5My Kid's Said NoML 2/5

My Kid's Said No is the standout in this spot and the morning line reflects it at 2/5 — this is as close to a single as you'll find on today's card. A 50% career win rate is exceptional and the average speed figure of 56 is noticeably higher than any other horse in the field who has a posted number. Trainer Tena Birdwell and jockey Shavon Townsend have a live horse here. The rating of 60 tops the field and the gap between her and the competition is real — this is a horse stepping into stakes company with a legitimate résumé behind her.

place4She's a ManeaterML 5/1

She's a Maneater draws the second-best rating in the field at 53.33 for trainer Jared Brown, who also saddles Cape Spear. At 5/1 on the morning line, she represents the most logical threat to My Kid's Said No if the pace gets honest. There's no posted speed figure or career win data for this horse, which suggests she's lightly raced, but the rating says there's underlying ability worth respecting. In a race where the favorite is likely to dominate, she figures to be fighting for the place share.

show1ThickML 8/1

Thick checks in at a rating of 48.33 from trainer Michael Nault — third-best in this field of mostly unproven horses. Also lacking career win percentage and speed figure data, Thick appears to be making an early career appearance in a stakes spot, which takes some guts from the connections. At 8/1, the price compensates for the uncertainty and the rating supports inclusion on the bottom end of trifecta tickets. He's a speculative show play at best but has more upside than the rest of the back half of this field.

Three races are fully open to all TrackWiz readers today. Race 1 features Queen of Attitude (ML 4/5, TrackWiz Rating 89.49) — she's the morning-line favorite and our top-rated horse on the entire card, and on a warm fast track over 7 furlongs she looks like the class of her field. Race 2 flips the script with Ave's in Command (ML 5/1, Rating 80.12) drawing our eye as a potential value play at a generous morning-line price in a short 5.5-furlong sprint. And in Race 3, the Stakes event, My Kid's Said No (ML 2/5) is a heavy favorite — the number tells you the public agrees, but we'll break down whether there's any reason to look for a price against that short chalk.

With the heat baking the track surface through the afternoon, keep an eye on early pace in these shorter sprints — horses that can settle slightly off the lead may have an edge as the day wears on.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

1:50 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

An allowance optional claiming field at 6 furlongs where one horse's rating separates itself significantly from the pack — but a couple of live price horses could make the exotics very interesting.

win3SmoocherroML 9/5

Smoocherro is the clear top pick with a TrackWiz rating of 88.83, the highest in this field by a wide margin. The 9/5 morning line is fair for a horse of this caliber, though the rating suggests she may be even shorter at post time. Trainer Eugene Burns has her conditioned for the 6-furlong distance and jockey Shavon Townsend gets the mount — Townsend has been active on the card today. A 21% career win rate is solid for allowance company and the average speed figure of 54 is competitive at this level.

place8Foothills Blvd.ML 8/1

Foothills Blvd. is the sneaky value play in this race at 8/1 morning line — a 37% career win rate is the best in the field and his TrackWiz rating of 67.52 puts him firmly in second place. Trainer Ralph Zaft and jockey Roger Hewitt combine here, and the career win percentage signals a horse that has been highly competitive throughout his career. He profiles as a stalker type who could be rolling late if Smoocherro sets the pace honest from the front.

show2Out too LateML 3/1

Out too Late draws a 3/1 morning line with a rating of 65.27 and an average speed figure of 56 — that's the highest speed figure in the race and worth flagging. Trainer Brent Hrymak has him with Antonio Whitehall in the irons, and a 16% career win rate in allowance company is workmanlike. The speed figure suggests he may be faster than his rating implies, making him a legitimate show threat and a worthwhile piece in the exacta underneath.

Race 5

2:15 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Finding Ways looks like a dominant class standout in this 6-furlong allowance optional claiming field, but the supporting cast has enough depth to make exactas and trifectas worth constructing carefully.

win6Finding WaysML 5/2

Finding Ways has the highest TrackWiz rating in the race at 87.81 and backs it up with a 38% career win rate — the best in the field by a comfortable margin. At 5/2 on the morning line, there's still some overlay potential given how the numbers set up. Trainer Robert Maybin puts Christopher Roy Mamdeen on board, a combo that has been effective on today's card. With an average speed figure of 54 and the class indicators aligned, Finding Ways is the clear top selection.

place9ClassicoML 6/1

Classico rates second in our analysis with a 60.21 TrackWiz rating and sits at 6/1 on the morning line — that's a price worth paying for a place ticket. Trainer Michael Nault has two entries in this race and Damario Bynoe gets the mount on Classico, which suggests connections are comfortable with the horse's readiness. A 20% career win rate and average speed figure of 53 put him in the mix for second money behind the favorite.

show4Northvale RoadML 7/1

Northvale Road rates third in the field at 58.75 and brings a 22% career win rate with an average speed of 55 — the highest speed figure of any horse in the bottom half of the field. Trainer Michael Nault also has Classico in here, so he's doubling up with two horses that profile similarly. At 7/1 morning line, Northvale Road is a legitimate show play and worth using in trifectas, especially if the pace scenario allows him to track and close.

Race 6

2:40 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A 1 1/16-mile claiming route where the morning line favorite doesn't match up with the TrackWiz ratings — creating a potential overlay situation that handicappers should pay close attention to.

win5Gallant OakML 2/1

Gallant Oak leads all horses with a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 and draws the 2/1 morning line — the second choice, but the top-rated horse in the field. Trainer Carman Mustard and jockey Shavon Townsend team up here, and the 1 1/16-mile distance over dirt suits a horse carrying this kind of rating. The 11% career win rate is notably low, which may explain why the morning line didn't install him as the favorite, but raw career percentage can be misleading — the TrackWiz model sees something here worth trusting.

place4Beckett's BestML 3/1

Beckett's Best is the most compelling place play on the card today, bringing a 35% career win rate — the best in this race — combined with a solid 76.82 rating. Trainer Jerry Gourneau and jockey Neville Stephenson connect here, and at 3/1 morning line, there's good place value in a race where the top horse may be underbet. His average speed figure of 53 matches the pace of this field, and his career stats say he knows how to finish.

show9Free MakerML 5/1

Free Maker rounds out the picks at 5/1 morning line with a rating of 58.51 — a meaningful step above the rest of the bottom half of this field. Trainer Fred Rawson has him with Sven Balroop in the irons, and a 13% career win rate in a claiming route suggests he's competitive without being a consistent front-runner. At 5/1, he offers show value and is a fair trifecta inclusion in a race that could see some chaos from the deep field.

Race 7

3:05 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden special weight at 6 furlongs with a fascinating top three — the morning line favorite isn't the top-rated horse, setting up an intriguing pace and value scenario for handicappers willing to dig in.

win6Judge OliverML 4/1

Judge Oliver tops our TrackWiz ratings in this maiden field at 85.62 and yet sits at 4/1 on the morning line — making him a potential overlay in a race where He's My Uncle at 9/5 will attract the most public money. Trainer Jason Homer — who also runs He's My Uncle — has two horses at the top of this race, which is worth monitoring for any post-time odds shifts. An average speed figure of 53 is solid for maiden company and the rating says Judge Oliver has the edge on both morning line horses above him.

place3Charlie's PrizeML 3/1

Charlie's Prize rates 81.25 and is tabbed at 3/1 — the second-highest rating in the field and likely to attract serious support. Trainer Charlene Miller sends out this horse with Antonio Whitehall, and a speed figure of 53 keeps pace with the top tier of maidens here. In a race where the top two rated horses go postward at 4/1 and 3/1 respectively, the place pool could offer real value — Charlie's Prize profiles as a horse who won't be far off the pace.

show4He's My UncleML 9/5

He's My Uncle comes in as the morning line favorite at 9/5 with a 78.14 rating — third in the field according to TrackWiz analysis. That's a mild disconnect worth noting: the public will back him most, but two horses rate above him. Trainer Jason Homer doubles up in this race, which means the stable clearly has confidence in the condition, and jockey Shavon Townsend is one of the more active riders on today's card. He's a safe show play but win bettors may find better value elsewhere.

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A seven-race dirt card under summer heat, a pair of intriguing value plays in the free races, and four premium deep-dives waiting for subscribers — Assiniboia on July 29 has something for every type of player. Queen of Attitude is our top-rated horse on the card; don't overlook Ave's in Command if you're hunting a price. For the full picture — pace scenarios, exotics, and our complete card analysis — it's all available to TrackWiz subscribers at /pricing. Good luck out there.

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