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Assiniboia Picks & Predictions — July 28, 2026

July 28, 20267 racesAll Assiniboia picks

This card ran on July 28, 2026.

Best bets at Assiniboia, July 28, 2026

Race 11Rugged RoosterML 1/28:30 PM EDT

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 5 races are for members.

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It's a beautiful Tuesday at Assiniboia Downs — clear skies, 84°F, and a fast dirt surface that should reward speed all afternoon. Seven races are on the board, and TrackWiz has the full card broken down from the opener to the nightcap.

With the mercury up and the track firing, pace scenarios are going to be critical today. Front-runners who can control fractions on this kind of surface tend to hold on, so keep that bias in the back of your mind as you build your tickets. We've got a mix of claiming races and maiden events, which means plenty of class-drop angles and first-time form to sort through.

Three races are fully unlocked for every TrackWiz reader, and four more are available to subscribers with the complete deep-dive treatment. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A heavy favorite tops a short five-horse field in this opener, but a pair of Tiffany Husbands runners could complicate things and keep the exotics honest.

win1Rugged RoosterML 1/2

Rugged Rooster is the class of this field by a wide margin — a TrackWiz rating of 90 sits well clear of the competition, and at 20% career wins, he's a horse that knows how to finish the job. Michael Nault saddles him alongside stablemate Twolefttoload, giving the barn a powerful one-two punch from the inside posts. At 6 furlongs on the Assiniboia dirt, his average speed figure of 53 is among the best in here. The 1/2 morning line tells the story — this one needs to be in your exotics.

place3Mini Glazed DonutML 6/1

Mini Glazed Donut is the interesting overlay in this race, sitting at 6/1 on the morning line despite a TrackWiz rating of 78 — the third-best number in the field. Trainer Tiffany Husbands has two horses in this race, and Damario Bynoe gets the call here. A 23% career win rate is quietly the best in the field, and at those odds there's real value in the place hole.

show2TwolefttoloadML 3/1

Twolefttoload is the other half of the Nault barn entry and shouldn't be overlooked despite the 3/1 price on a horse rated 69.58. The 21% career win rate is solid for this level, and running for the same trainer as the likely favorite could mean a pace setup that suits him just fine. Use him underneath in trifectas as a reliable safety net.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

9:00 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

Wide-open maiden special weight over 5 furlongs with a first-time starter field — no prior speed figures to lean on, so trainer power and morning-line positioning become everything.

win3C J's MayzeeML 2/1

C J's Mayzee earns the top TrackWiz rating in this maiden field at 58.33 and draws the morning-line favoritism at 2/1, suggesting connections are confident. Trainer Jared Brown has a full three-horse entry in this race — C J's Mayzee, Get Some More, and J P Finigan — and when a barn fires that many bullets in one race, they believe they have a runner. Dario Dalrymple takes the mount, and the inside-post draw at 5 furlongs is workable. In a field of unknowns, the combination of top rating and barn confidence makes this the most defensible win play.

place6Beer BudgetML 3/1

Beer Budget comes in at 3/1 on the morning line with the second-best TrackWiz rating in the field at 56.67, and Antonio Whitehall — one of the more active riders on this circuit — gets the assignment for the Michael Nault barn. Nault also has Circle the Bird in here, giving the stable a dual shot at the board. Beer Budget's rating edge over most of this field and a confident jockey booking make him a solid place contender.

show4Get Some MoreML 4/1

Get Some More rounds out the Jared Brown trifecta entry and slots in at 4/1 on the morning line with a rating of 55 — right in the middle of the pack. Arthur Budhu takes the mount, and with three Brown runners in the field, pace control and traffic management could work in any one of their favors. In a maiden first-out field this uncertain, stacking the Brown entry across win-place-show in your exotics is a legitimate strategy.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

The first three races on today's card give us a nice cross-section of what Assiniboia has to offer. Rugged Rooster opens the card as a heavy morning-line favorite at 1/2 in a 6-furlong claiming sprint — on a surface playing this fast, a horse with that kind of backing demands respect, and our TrackWiz rating of 90 backs that up. Race 2 flips the script with a 5-furlong Maiden Special Weight, where C J's Mayzee draws our top nod at 2/1 — maiden races are inherently tricky, but our analysis sees enough upside here to make her the play. Round out the free look with Grenache in Race 3, a 7-furlong maiden claimer where the added ground could be the key that unlocks a career-best effort for a horse sitting at a very playable 3/1 on the morning line.

The connecting thread across all three free picks: horses we think can dictate or sit just off a manageable pace on what should be a true-speed-favoring surface today. Don't overthink the opener — let Rugged Rooster do the heavy lifting and roll those profits forward.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

9:25 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite here looks vulnerable on ratings — two horses with significantly higher TrackWiz numbers are ready to spring the upset in this maiden claimer going 7 furlongs.

win2GrenacheML 3/1

Grenache tops our ratings at 86.16 despite going off at 3/1 — a nice overlay given how strong that number looks in context. Damario Bynoe, one of the busier jockeys on the Assiniboia circuit, picks up this mount for trainer Wendy Anderson. An average speed figure of 52 matches the pace of the field, and the 7-furlong distance gives a closer the room to run. The disconnect between the morning line and the TrackWiz rating is exactly the kind of value angle worth pressing.

place4Moonshine BoogieML 4/1

Moonshine Boogie is nearly as strong as the top pick with a rating of 85.62 — separated by just half a point — and goes at 4/1 morning line. Trainer Lise Pruitt also has La Canonica in here as the chalk, but our numbers say Moonshine Boogie is the more dangerous runner. Jockey Ciera Pruitt takes the ride, and the stable clearly has live horses in this race. Use Moonshine Boogie as a win contender as well as a place play.

show1Little TribuneML 5/1

Little Tribune breaks from the rail with a solid 80.03 TrackWiz rating and a 5/1 price that looks fair. Trainer Robert Maybin sends Roger Hewitt up for the mount, and while this horse has yet to break the maiden, the rating puts it firmly in the mix at a distance — 7 furlongs — that should suit a horse that needs to build into its run. A nice show horse to anchor trifecta tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 4

9:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Two horses are separated from the rest of the field on our ratings in this 6-furlong claimer — the real question is whether anyone can get between them on the board.

win6Distinctive DebML 8/5

Distinctive Deb tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.35 and is the morning-line choice at 8/5, so the market and the numbers are aligned here. Trainer Mike Taphorn sends her out with Damario Bynoe aboard — a jockey who's been busy and effective throughout this meet. Her 21% career win rate and a matching average speed figure of 53 with the top horses in the race suggest she's not overpriced at that chalk number. She's the right play to build your tickets around.

place5Miss ZML 3/1

Miss Z is separated from the field by just 0.27 rating points at 87.08, which is essentially a dead heat on our numbers with the top pick. She goes at 3/1 with Rachaad Knights aboard for trainer J. Douglas Mustard, and her 17% career win rate is respectable for this claiming level. The pace scenario over 6 furlongs sets up for two strong closers — if Distinctive Deb gets rank or gets stuck, Miss Z is right there to pounce.

show1Valerie ValeskiML 4/1

Valerie Valeski opens at 4/1 with a solid 74.97 TrackWiz rating — the third-best mark in the field by a comfortable margin. Christopher Roy Mamdeen rides for trainer Robert Maybin, and while her 11% career win rate isn't flashy, she's been competitive enough to earn a place spot in this group. With the top two prices so close, she's the right show horse to anchor trifecta combinations.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 5

10:15 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A pair of first-out maiden fillies stand well above the rest of the field on ratings — but the morning-line has them flipped, creating an interesting overlay situation worth exploring.

win3Madeline Tothe MaxML 3/1

Madeline Tothe Max carries the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.08 and goes at 3/1 morning line for trainer Mike Taphorn — the same barn that fires Distinctive Deb in Race 4. Javaniel R. Patterson picks up the mount, and with Taphorn clearly having a strong book on this card, confidence is warranted. An average speed figure of 52 fits the field profile, and in a seven-horse maiden sprint, having the highest rating at a fair price is exactly the angle to play.

place4Off the PayrollML 9/5

Off the Payroll is the morning-line favorite at 9/5 despite carrying a slightly lower TrackWiz rating of 80.26 — which makes Madeline Tothe Max the overlay. That said, Tyrone Nelson rides for trainer Tom Gardipy Jr., who also sends out When I Saw You in this race, suggesting the barn has live horses in here. Off the Payroll's 9/5 price will likely be short, but she's a legitimate place threat and belongs underneath in your exotics.

show5Sum Up the SilverML 7/2

Sum Up the Silver at 7/2 offers the most reasonable price on a horse with a viable path to the board, rated 55.83 — meaningfully above the bottom half of the field. Trainer Jason Homer gets Ciera Pruitt up, and in a wide-open maiden sprint where pace can be unpredictable, having a live runner at a mid-price is useful for show and trifecta coverage. Don't ignore her in the bottom slot of your exotic tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 6

10:40 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

One horse stands significantly above the field on our numbers in this eight-horse claiming sprint, but a pair of value plays behind him make the exotics worth structuring carefully.

win3Steal Your SoulML 9/5

Steal Your Soul is the standout in this field with the highest TrackWiz rating at 88.83 — well clear of the second-best mark. A 22% career win rate is the best among the win contenders, and Sven Balroop takes the mount for trainer Steve Keplin Jr. The 9/5 morning line isn't exactly a price, but when a horse leads the field by this much on both rating and career win percentage, you play him. He's the anchor of every ticket in Race 6.

place7She's So CroatianML 6/1

She's So Croatian is our place pick at 6/1, and that price makes her genuinely interesting. Christopher Roy Mamdeen rides for Ryan Desjarlais, and a TrackWiz rating of 70.81 — second-best in the field — suggests she belongs closer to the top of the market than the morning line implies. A 11% career win rate at this level is modest, but in a race where the top horse might be heavily bet down, she's a real value in the place spot.

show5Starship ParadiseML 3/1

Starship Paradise rounds out the show position at 3/1 with a rating of 62.91 and a 16% career win rate that holds up fine for this claiming group. Dario Dalrymple rides for trainer Jerry Gourneau, and Starship Paradise has the speed figure — 53 — to run with the pace. She's the kind of horse who finds the board without necessarily winning it, which is all you need from a show pick in exotics.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 7

11:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite in this 7½-furlong claiming stretch is a significant mismatch with our ratings — a genuine overlay sits mid-card, and a pair of value horses make the exotics worth building out.

win5Stand by TimeML 5/1

Stand by Time is the clear TrackWiz choice at 84.17 — the top rating in the field by nearly 19 points — yet goes off at 5/1 on the morning line while the 44.12-rated Kikilove is listed at 8/5 chalk. That kind of ratings-versus-morning-line disconnect is a prime overlay situation. Renaldo Cumberbatch takes the mount for trainer Jerry Gourneau, and an average speed figure of 53 ties for the top mark in the field. Going long at 7½ furlongs should suit a horse with this kind of class edge — this is the value play of the day.

place2Hardly MischievousML 10/1

Hardly Mischievous is the longshot play that doubles as a legit place contender at 10/1 — a TrackWiz rating of 65.21 and a 15% career win rate suggest she's better than her price. Antonio Whitehall gets the mount for trainer Lise Pruitt, who's had a busy and productive card on this day. At a mile-and-a-sixteenth equivalent distance, horses with tactical versatility can find their way into the picture, and Hardly Mischievous offers tremendous value underneath.

show4Princess AleskaML 7/2

Princess Aleska brings a 20% career win rate — tied for second-best in the field — along with a solid 64.69 TrackWiz rating and a 7/2 morning line that's fair but not exciting. Christopher Roy Mamdeen rides for Robert Maybin, and at the longer 7½-furlong trip, her experience winning races at this level is a meaningful edge. She's the steady show anchor that gives your trifecta structure some security.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

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Clear skies, a fast track, and seven races worth playing — today's Assiniboia card has something for everyone. Start with Rugged Rooster in the opener, keep an eye on Grenache to offer some value at 3/1 in Race 3, and if you're serious about the late exotics, get the full premium breakdown before you finalize any multi-race tickets. Good luck out there — let's make Tuesday count.

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