Assiniboia Picks & Predictions — July 22, 2026
Clear skies, 77°F, and fast dirt — conditions don't get much cleaner than this at Assiniboia Downs on Wednesday. The track is set up beautifully for a full seven-race card, and our TrackWiz models are firing on a handful of angles that should make for a productive afternoon.
The card mixes allowance company with claiming action across distances ranging from 5½ furlongs up to a flat mile, so there's something here for every type of bettor. Pace scenarios vary race to race, which means reading the track bias early — particularly through the free races — could pay real dividends in the back half of the card.
Three races are fully unlocked for every reader. The final four are reserved for TrackWiz subscribers, and honestly, that's where some of the most interesting pace set-ups live today.
Best Bets
Race 1
Allowance · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt
The morning-line favorite is beatable here — our top-rated horse sits at 5/2 and represents the most compelling number on the board in this 7.5-furlong allowance opener.
No Show No Call tops our TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 — a clear margin over the rest of this field — and backs it up with a career win rate of 42%, which is elite at any level. The 7.5-furlong trip is a distance that rewards tactical horses, and a 42% strike rate suggests this one knows how to close the deal when it matters. Trainer Mike Taphorn puts Damario Bynoe up, a capable duo, and the 5/2 morning line offers real value against a public that will flock to the chalk. This is our best bet of the race.
Al Reichert is the 4/5 favorite for a reason — a TrackWiz rating of 79.29 and a 28% career win rate make him a legitimate contender. He's the likeliest pace-setter or presser in this field, but at near-even money, the win price won't be appetizing. Slotting him for place keeps you covered without overpaying.
Betterlucknexttime opens at 5/1, which is generous for a horse carrying a 33% career win rate and a rating of 74.52 — third-best in the field. Jockey Javaniel R. Patterson gives this one a good chance to hit the board, and at those odds, tossing it into your exacta or trifecta wheel costs you very little for meaningful upside.
Race 2
Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
A wide-open 6-furlong claimer with a genuine pace scenario — the top TrackWiz pick is going off at 5/2, while a legitimate 8/1 shot lurks underneath and could torch the exacta pools.
Payton's Indian rates as our top selection despite a modest 20% career win rate — it's the TrackWiz rating of 84.35 that stands out, the highest in this field by a comfortable margin. Trainer Jerry Gourneau teams with jockey Renaldo Cumberbatch, a combo that will be looking to put this one in a good spot early in a six-furlong sprint. The 5/2 morning line is fair but not generous, so if the odds drift post-program, grab it.
Big Tippa is the value story in this race. An 8/1 morning line on a horse with a TrackWiz rating of 79.79 — second-best in the field — is the kind of overlay that serious bettors circle. Trainer Tom Gardipy Jr. knows this track well, and at those odds, Big Tippa makes for a strong place play and an attractive top to exactas.
East Coast Cowgirl brings the best career win percentage in this field at 38%, and her TrackWiz rating of 74.97 gives her a realistic shot at the board. She's trained by Tom Gardipy Jr. — same barn as Big Tippa — which means connections are well-represented here. At 3/1, she's not a throwaway show price, but her consistency makes her worth anchoring in trifectas.
Race 3
Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt
A competitive allowance mile — Banker Matt opens at 3/1 as a public choice, but our TrackWiz model says two longer-priced horses are the real threats, setting up a potential exotic bonanza.
Preachers Secret is our top pick at 5/1, and the case is straightforward — a TrackWiz rating of 84.17, the highest in this field, combined with a 20% career win rate in allowance company. Trainer Jason Homer has a second runner in this race (Acquire, our place pick), suggesting the barn is engaged and conditions suit. Jockey Ciera Pruitt pilots here, and if this horse runs to its rating, that 5/1 morning line will look like a gift at the windows.
Acquire, Homer's other entrant, rates second in the TrackWiz model at 82.41 — essentially a dead heat with Preachers Secret at the top of the board. A 33% career win rate adds credibility. When the same trainer is doubling up in a race, it's worth noting both are legitimate; use Acquire confidently underneath in your exotics.
Banker Matt is 3/1 on the morning line, which probably reflects a strong local reputation, and he sports a career win rate of 50% — the highest number in the field alongside Haggis and My Kinda Delite. His TrackWiz rating of 56.67 is a tier below the top two, but that 50% win rate isn't something you fade casually. He's a solid show anchor for your trifecta.
Our three free races span both allowance and claiming conditions, and TrackWiz analysis has identified solid top picks in all of them. No Show No Call opens the card in the allowance ranks at 7½ furlongs — an unusual distance that tends to reward horses with tactical speed rather than pure closers. At 5/2 on the morning line with an 87.81 rating, this one looks like a fair price for what could be a wire-to-wire performance on a quick track.
In Race 2, Payton's Indian brings a matching 5/2 morning line into a six-furlong claimer, while Race 3 features the intriguing Preachers Secret at a juicy 5/1 in allowance company — that's the kind of price that gets our attention when the TrackWiz rating (84.17) suggests the horse belongs. If the bias is showing any front-runner friendliness through the early races, lean into these profiles hard.
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A clean, fast track at Assiniboia and a seven-race card with legitimate standouts at multiple price points — today has the makings of a solid play day. Start with No Show No Call, Payton's Indian, and Preachers Secret in the free races, then let Jacks Spring Break (89.27 rating) headline your premium selections. Full card breakdowns, pace projections, and exotic ticket strategies are available to TrackWiz subscribers at /pricing — good luck out there.