Daily Picks

Assiniboia Picks & Predictions — July 13, 2026

Monday, July 13, 20267 racesAssiniboia

It's a hot one at Assiniboia Downs today — 89°F under clear skies, which means that dirt surface is going to be lightning fast by post time. When the track bakes like this, speed horses get an extra edge and front-runners can be nearly impossible to run down. Keep that in mind as you build your tickets.

We've got seven races on the card, mixing Claiming battles with a pair of Stakes showdowns that give today's program some real teeth. Race 3 and Race 5 are where the prestige money is at stake, and both feature horses that our analysis has flagged as serious contenders worth watching closely.

Three races are available to everyone for free today — Races 1, 2, and 3 — so whether you're a casual bettor or a full-card grinder, there's something here for you. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:30 AM EDT

Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open claiming opener on the dirt at 7½ furlongs, but one horse separates itself from the pack on the TrackWiz ratings — expect the morning-line chalk to face a real pace test from a pair of live contenders.

win6Mr. SplashML 8/5

Mr. Splash is the standout of this field by a significant margin — his TrackWiz rating of 89.12 towers over the competition and trainer Mike Taphorn sends him out with jockey Rachaad Knights in the irons. Despite a career win percentage of 12%, the ratings suggest he's been running in tougher spots and the 8/5 morning line reflects the market's respect for his ability. At 7½ furlongs on the Assiniboia dirt, he looks like the class of this field and should be the first name on your ticket.

place4Pickin' RiffsML 4/1

Pickin' Riffs lands at 4/1 on the morning line with a solid 61.87 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the race — and trainer Tiffany Husbands has a live runner here. His career win percentage of 9% suggests he can be a tough closer to put away, making him a logical place contender in the exacta underneath Mr. Splash.

show5TwolefttoloadML 8/1

Twolefttoload comes in with a 58.59 rating and the strongest career win percentage among the mid-tier horses at 23%, which tells you this horse knows how to finish in the money. Antonio Whitehall picks up the mount for trainer Michael Nault, and at 8/1 on the morning line, he's a nice value inclusion in trifecta tickets underneath the top two.

Race 2

1:00 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite isn't the top-rated horse in this 5½-furlong claiming sprint — that disconnect creates a real value opportunity and sets up an interesting pace scenario with multiple speed types in the field.

win2Mr. DazzleML 6/1

Mr. Dazzle sits at 6/1 on the morning line but owns the highest TrackWiz rating in the race at 82.17 — a significant edge over the field despite not being the public's top choice. Trainer Victoria Morse sends him out with Ciera Pruitt aboard, and with a 17% career win rate at a competitive level, the value case here is compelling. Our analysis suggests he's underlaid at 6/1 given his ratings advantage, and the 5½-furlong sprint distance looks tailor-made for a horse with his avg speed figure.

place4Red Road RunnerML 12/1

Red Road Runner is a massive overlay candidate — posted at 12/1 on the morning line but carries a 73.96 TrackWiz rating, second-best in the field. A 22% career win percentage is no joke at the claiming level, and trainer Michael Nault has Antonio Whitehall ready to ride. If he lands anywhere near his rating, he'll be fighting for a piece of the purse at a price the tote board is giving away.

show1Hay Scooby DooML 2/1

Hay Scooby Doo is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 with a 60.89 rating and a 16% career win percentage — not a lock by any means, but his class in this field is real. Trainer Jerry Gourneau conditions him well, and Neville Stephenson is a reliable hand in short sprints. He's a logical show-spot inclusion even if our top picks edge him out for the win.

Race 3

1:25 AM EDT

Stakes · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

Stakes company at 7½ furlongs and the Jerry Gourneau barn controls two of the five entries — including the top-rated horse at 9/5 — setting up what could be a tactical pace scenario that favors a strong closer.

win4BergheimML 9/5

Bergheim is the clear TrackWiz top selection at 88.83, a big number for a five-horse stakes field at Assiniboia, and the 9/5 morning line is probably about right. Trainer Jerry Gourneau — who saddles multiple runners today — puts Renaldo Cumberbatch up, and with a 30% career win rate, Bergheim is a horse who knows how to close things out. The combination of elite ratings and a proven winning record in what amounts to the class test of the afternoon makes him tough to beat.

place1JudoML 5/2

Judo ships in as the 5/2 morning-line second choice with a 72.59 TrackWiz rating and an impressive 25% career win percentage — legitimately dangerous if Bergheim hits any trouble. Trainer Steve Keplin Jr. has him pointed right, and with Sven Balroop in the irons, this horse has the tools to run down anything that weakens late at 7½ furlongs.

show2Kauai DanML 8/1

Kauai Dan is the value play in this stakes spot — at 8/1 on the morning line, he brings a 71.85 rating that's nearly identical to Judo's, and a 33% career win rate that's the highest in the race. Trainer Jared Brown has Damario Bynoe up, and the avg speed figure of 56 is the best in the field — if the pace sets up favorably, Kauai Dan has enough raw speed to sneak into the exotics.

The free portion of today's card is headlined by the Race 3 Stakes, where Bergheim (9/5 morning line, TrackWiz rating 88.83) draws our top pick honors. Stakes company over this 7½-furlong dirt trip is right in Bergheim's wheelhouse, and on a track playing this fast, a horse with his tactical speed profile becomes especially dangerous. Don't sleep on him.

In the opener, Mr. Splash comes in as the 8/5 favorite with a solid 89.12 TrackWiz rating over 7½ furlongs — the highest raw rating among today's free picks. Race 2 is where the value hunters should pay attention: Mr. Dazzle sits at 6/1 on the morning line, which our analysis suggests is a number worth attacking in a short 5½-furlong sprint where pace can go sideways fast. Overlays at that price in Claiming sprints are exactly the kind of spot TrackWiz was built to find.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

2:10 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The Allowance Optional Claiming conditions at 6 furlongs puts two high-rated horses in a direct matchup — the market says one is the favorite, but our ratings see it almost in reverse, creating a real betting angle.

win2LansdowneML 5/2

Lansdowne checks in with the top TrackWiz rating in the race at 87.81 and sits at an attractive 5/2 on the morning line — good value for a horse our analysis pegs as the best in the field. Trainer Jared Brown sends out Antonio Whitehall, and a 25% career win percentage paired with a 56 avg speed figure — best in the race — gives Lansdowne a pace dimension that should be hard to match at 6 furlongs. This looks like a best bet for the card.

place6TaillightsML 7/5

Taillights is the morning-line favorite at 7/5 with an 84.66 rating, so the market clearly respects this runner too — the key difference is that our analysis gives Lansdowne a slight edge. Trainer Steve Keplin Jr. and jockey Damario Bynoe form a sharp combo, and with a 23% career win percentage, Taillights is a legitimate threat to flip the result. Keep him onside in your exactas.

show4Dominant SpiritML 7/2

Dominant Spirit comes in at 7/2 with a solid 75.74 rating and a 20% career win percentage — not the most exciting price, but this is a horse that belongs in the mix. Trainer Jerry Gourneau has him under Neville Stephenson, and a 55 avg speed figure puts him right in the conversation for the pace scenario at 6 furlongs. He's the logical third wheel in trifecta combinations.

Race 5

2:35 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Dirt

A seven-horse stakes going one mile on the dirt, and the top-rated horse is also the morning-line favorite — but the intriguing longshot angle and a pair of lightly-raced types with eye-popping win percentages make this worth digging into.

win1Prime SuspectML 6/5

Prime Suspect heads this field with the highest TrackWiz rating at 89.71 and draws the rail under Sven Balroop for trainer Steve Keplin Jr. — a proven combo at Assiniboia. The 6/5 morning line reflects heavy public support, and while that limits the value, the ratings margin over the field at one mile is simply too wide to fade. An 18% career win percentage in stakes competition shows he's been competitive at the highest local level.

place3Really RalisML 8/1

Really Ralis is the best value play in the race — an 8/1 morning line on a horse with a 71.69 TrackWiz rating and a 66% career win percentage that is genuinely eye-catching. Trainer Cindy Krasner sends out Kerron Khelawan, and if that win rate holds any predictive value in this spot, the 8/1 price is a gift. He's the top choice for the place hole in exactas and a sneaky win contender in his own right.

show6Truly UnbelievableML 6/1

Truly Unbelievable gets a 6/1 morning-line price with a 69.45 rating and a 33% career win percentage — trainer Robertino Diodoro is a name that carries weight, and Kimal Santo in the irons is a competent booking. At one mile, a horse with Truly Unbelievable's profile can sit just off the pace and pounce late, making him a sensible show inclusion and a trifecta piece worth using.

Race 6

3:00 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A deep nine-horse claiming mile that features a morning-line favorite who isn't the top-rated horse — our analysis points to a 5/1 price as the best bet while the chalk could get caught in traffic.

win5Wicked RoseML 5/1

Wicked Rose owns the top TrackWiz rating in the race at 84.17 and is sitting at 5/1 on the morning line — a full three ticks higher than the 2/1 morning-line chalk. Trainer Jerry Gourneau puts Sheldon Chickeness up, and a 24% career win percentage in a nine-horse claiming field is a strong profile. The pace scenario in a large field over a mile can get messy, and a horse with Wicked Rose's rating should be able to navigate it.

place3Cajun EddieML 2/1

Cajun Eddie is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 with a 76.86 rating and the field's top career win percentage at 28% — Ciera Pruitt rides for Tom Gardipy Jr., a strong local combination. Our top pick edges him on ratings, but Cajun Eddie's win percentage and the favorable morning line suggest he'll be a factor throughout; he's the natural exacta partner underneath Wicked Rose.

show2Bossy HolidayML 4/1

Bossy Holiday at 4/1 might be the most straightforward show play on the afternoon — a 57.07 rating with 14% career wins, trained by Lise Pruitt with Mathew Bennett aboard. He profiles as a mid-pack stalker who could benefit if the front-runners soften each other up over a mile, and the 4/1 price makes him a worthwhile trifecta piece in a field where chaos is possible.

Race 7

3:25 AM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

The evening's final race is a competitive seven-furlong claiming event where the morning-line favorite sits at even money, but our top-rated horse is lurking at 5/1 — a classic setup for a betting move.

win5Ave's in CommandML 5/1

Ave's in Command is the TrackWiz top pick at 84.17 and offers the best value on the board at 5/1 morning line — far better than the even-money chalk. A 38% career win percentage is the highest in the field and speaks to a horse that consistently finishes the job. Trainer Robert Maybin sends Christopher Roy Mamdeen out for the ride, and at seven furlongs, Ave's in Command has the profile of a stalker who can sit just off the pace and run down the leaders.

place1Hey Big UnML EVN

Hey Big Un draws the rail at even money and packs a 72.52 TrackWiz rating with a 20% career win rate — trainer Carl Norman Anderson has this horse ready to run from post 1. Even-money horses at Assiniboia can go gate-to-wire at seven furlongs, and if Hey Big Un gets the early lead, he'll be dangerous until the very end. He's worth including in exactas as the natural pace-setter.

show2Bati KingML 5/2

Bati King rounds out the trifecta at 5/2 on the morning line with a 71.21 rating and a 19% career win percentage — nearly identical numbers to Hey Big Un, making this a legitimately close three-horse race at the top. Trainer Wendy Anderson has Tyrone Nelson up, and the 53 avg speed figure gives Bati King a slight edge in raw speed over the even-money favorite. He's a safe show inclusion and a threat to upset the order.

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Today's Assiniboia card has real teeth — two Stakes races, a pair of legitimate value plays, and a blistering-fast dirt surface that could make pace an even bigger factor than usual. Mr. Splash, Mr. Dazzle, and Bergheim are our featured free plays, with Prime Suspect headlining the premium card as the top-rated horse of the day. Upgrade to TrackWiz Premium for the full race-by-race breakdown, exotic tickets, and pace projections on all seven races. Good luck out there — and as always, bet smart.

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