Assiniboia Picks & Predictions — July 14, 2026
It's a warm Tuesday afternoon at Assiniboia Downs — partly cloudy skies and 83°F on the thermometer, which should leave the main track in solid shape for a full seven-race card of dirt action. Conditions like these tend to favor horses that can settle early and close, so pace scenario is going to matter all afternoon long.
What makes today's card genuinely interesting is the stakes double — Race 3 and Race 6 each go 7½ furlongs and feature some of the sharper horses on the grounds. Our analysis has What a Force as the morning-line chalk in Race 3, while Dontgiveupthefight gets the nod in Race 6 at the same odds. Two stakes, same distance, same surface — the pace comparisons between the two fields are worth a close look if you're playing the late exotics.
Three races are free to all TrackWiz readers today, giving you a real taste of what the card has to offer before the premium picks kick in. Let's break it down.
Best Bets
Race 1
Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt
One horse stands out significantly on TrackWiz ratings in this 7-furlong dirt claimer, but the morning line favorite isn't the one our model likes best — expect some early fireworks before the top-rated runner takes over.
She's My Niece is the clear standout here by a wide margin, posting a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 that dwarfs the field. She carries a 16% career win rate — second-best in this field — and her connections with trainer Carl Norman Anderson and jockey Antonio Whitehall give her a professional setup at 2/1. At seven furlongs on the dirt, her average speed figure of 53 matches the field average, meaning she's not just winning on raw speed — she's doing it with consistency and class.
Cymbal Court opens at 6/1 on the morning line but carries the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 66.76, making her an underrated commodity in the exotics. She matches the field's top speed average at 53 and posts an 11% career win rate for trainer Steven Gaskin. At those odds, she's a legitimate place horse who could easily outrun her price.
Midnightcandystorm sits at 4/1 on the morning line and while her 50.31 rating is middle-of-the-pack, she's got enough talent to earn a check at this level. Trainer Tom Gardipy Jr. runs a competitive barn at Assiniboia, and jockey Tyrone Nelson gives her a capable pilot. At fair odds, she's a reasonable show ticket or exacta/trifecta inclusion.
Race 2
Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt
A competitive seven-furlong dirt claimer with multiple horses clustered tightly on ratings, though one runner's 25% career win rate stands out as the field's best, setting up a potential pace battle at the front before the cream rises.
Girl From de Bayou tops our model at 88.54 and goes in at 2/1, which is fair but not generous given her rating advantage over the field. Jockey Sven Balroop gives her an experienced hand, and trainer Elton Dickey has her ready to fire. Her 14% career win rate is modest, but that rating gap — nearly eight points over the next-best runner — suggests she's been doing things right in the mornings and in the gate.
Sherlyn Go Go is the one to beat for second money, boasting a sparkling 25% career win rate — the best in the field — and an 81.25 TrackWiz rating that puts her firmly in the mix. Trainer Wendy Anderson keeps her horses sharp, and Kerron Khelawan is one of the sharper sticks in the jock's room at Assiniboia. At 4/1, she's a legitimate exacta partner with the top pick.
Smooching is an interesting inclusion at 8/1 morning line, carrying a 79.17 rating and a strong 23% career win rate that screams 'live horse.' Trainer Steven Gaskin fits her up with Antonio Whitehall, a jockey who knows how to navigate a seven-furlong dirt sprint. If the top two beat each other up in a pace duel, Smooching is perfectly positioned to collect a piece of this.
Race 3
Stakes · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt
Stakes company brings out the best — and most interesting — wagering puzzle of the early card, with the morning line favorite carrying a top TrackWiz rating but facing two horses within striking distance, including one with an eye-popping 50% career win rate.
What a Force is the horse to beat here, sitting atop the TrackWiz ratings at 89.42 and carrying an elite 42% career win rate that puts this runner in a different class from most of the field. The top average speed figure in the race at 55 tells you this horse has been flashing real ability, and trainer Tim Rycroft has her primed for a big effort. Jose Mariano Asencio in the irons is a smart booking — he knows how to position a horse in a seven-and-a-half furlong stakes.
Steal Your Soul is a worthy threat at 7/2, posting an 83.89 TrackWiz rating and a solid 25% career win rate that proves this is a genuine stakes-caliber runner. Trainer Steve Keplin Jr. sends her out with Sven Balroop, a pairing that has produced results at this circuit. Her average speed figure of 54 matches the co-best in the field, so she has the raw ability to push the favorite all the way to the wire.
Wecanonlyimagine deserves respect with a 50% career win rate — the joint-best in the field — and an 82.17 TrackWiz rating that makes her more than just a supporting player. Trainer Jared Brown runs a capable barn, and Neville Stephenson gets a live mount here at 4/1 morning line odds. If the pace scenario sets up for a closer, this one could easily hit the board.
The first three races on the card are fully accessible, and they cover a nice cross-section of the day's action. She's My Niece (Race 1) and Girl From de Bayou (Race 2) each draw the 2/1 morning line in back-to-back claiming sprints at seven furlongs — our ratings are virtually identical on both horses, which tells you the claiming ranks at Assiniboia are tightly bunched right now. Don't overlook pace in these races; seven furlongs on a warm afternoon can get honest early, and closers may get their shot.
Race 3 is the crown jewel of the free card — a stakes at 7½ furlongs where What a Force sits as the 7/5 morning-line favorite with a TrackWiz rating of 89.42, the highest number we've posted in the first three races. If What a Force shows the tactical speed our figures suggest, this one could be a short-priced banker worth anchoring a multi-race ticket around.
Full Card Analysis
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Seven races, warm dirt, and a stakes double that gives today's card real teeth. She's My Niece, Girl From de Bayou, and What a Force headline the free picks — but the full story, including Dontgiveupthefight's pace edge and our exotic ticket breakdowns for the back half of the card, is waiting for subscribers. Head to /pricing to get access and make the most of what Assiniboia has to offer today. Good luck out there.