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Assiniboia Picks & Predictions — June 24, 2026

Wednesday, June 24, 20268 racesAssiniboia

Good afternoon from Assiniboia Downs, where a clean, comfortable Tuesday has the dirt track in prime shape for an eight-race card. Temperatures sitting at 68°F under partly cloudy skies — conditions don't get much better for a full day of racing on the Manitoba oval.

Today's card leans heavily on the claiming ranks before stepping up in a big way with back-to-back Stakes races in Races 6 and 7. That's your marquee matchup for the afternoon, and there's enough intrigue in the undercard to keep you busy from first post to last. Three races are open to everyone on TrackWiz, with full premium breakdowns available for the remaining five.

TrackWiz analysis has flagged a handful of horses worth watching closely — from morning-line favorites under serious pressure to a couple of spots where the price may not match the talent. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:30 AM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite gets outrated by two rivals in this 7-furlong dirt claimer, setting up a potential upset with Miss the Hype and Smooching hovering over Pineapple Tidbits.

win5Miss the HypeML 4/1

Miss the Hype tops the TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 despite going off at 4/1, which is where the value lives in this spot. Robert Maybin has her in good hands with Christopher Roy Mamdeen in the irons, and her 14% career win rate undersells what the numbers actually show — her raw rating is the best in the field by a clear margin. At 7 furlongs on dirt, she profiles as a horse who should be comfortable stalking early pace and running through the stretch.

place4Pineapple TidbitsML 6/5

Pineapple Tidbits is the 6/5 morning-line chalk and there's no questioning her credentials — a 23% career win rate and an 81.59 TrackWiz rating are legitimate. Antonio Whitehall has the call and the connections under Keith Pedersen know how to win at this level. She's a natural inclusion in exactas underneath our top pick.

show6SmoochingML 3/1

Smooching offers the best career win percentage in the field at 24% and a solid 72.70 rating under Steven Gaskin's care. Devante Prescod gives her a capable pilot, and at 3/1 she's not exactly a throwout. If the top two stumble or the pace gets hot early, Smooching is the type who keeps finding the wire.

Race 2

1:00 AM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Queen of Attitude is a class apart in this 7-furlong claimer and should be used on top of every ticket, but the place and show spots offer genuine value at double-digit odds.

win4Queen of AttitudeML EVN

Queen of Attitude is simply in a different tier here — a 90 TrackWiz rating, a jaw-dropping 50% career win rate, and the top average speed figure in the race at 55. Robert Maybin's barn is live, Christopher Roy Mamdeen knows this horse well, and the even-money morning line is fair given how far she stands above this field. If there's any knock, it's the short price — but with credentials this strong, she's the rare chalk worth accepting.

place2Payton's IndianML 10/1

Payton's Indian opens at 10/1 and that's a price worth attacking for the place. His 62.69 rating leads everyone else in the race not named Queen of Attitude, and a 21% career win rate shows he knows how to find the winner's circle. Jerry Gourneau trains him, and the barn also sends out the morning-line favorite — which means they know who the top horse is, and Payton's Indian is their second string in a spot where second string might be good enough to fill.

show1Get My DriftML 4/1

Get My Drift might be the mildest of the three TrackWiz picks at a 48.94 rating, but his 24% career win rate is the best among the non-Queen entrants. Sheldon Chickeness gets the mount, and at 4/1 he lands in a range where show-ticket inclusion makes sense for players spreading the exotics. He's the kind of steady claimer who quietly hits the board when a race sets up right.

Race 3

1:25 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Conspiracytheorist is a sharp odds-on overlay in a 6-furlong claimer where the morning line badly underestimates her rating advantage over a competitive but beatable field.

win3ConspiracytheoristML 7/2

Conspiracytheorist sits at 7/2 on the morning line yet owns the highest TrackWiz rating in this race at 86.35 — that gap between price and rating is exactly the kind of value our analysis targets. Wendy Anderson trains her with Javaniel R. Patterson aboard, a barn-and-rider combo that has plenty of firepower on this card. Her 15% career win rate is respectable at this level, and a 6-furlong sprint suits horses who can fire out of the gate and hold form.

place5He Likes WinningML 9/2

He Likes Winning opens at 9/2 with a 75.90 rating that makes him a legitimate second choice in a field that has a few soft spots at the bottom. Rachaad Knights is a capable rider who can coax the right run at a sprint distance, and trainer Craig Robert Smith has him primed. He makes strong sense as the place pick behind our top selection in exactas.

show1Aaron's SpiritML 3/1

Aaron's Spirit draws the rail and opens at 3/1 under Shavon Townsend for Judy Hunter's barn. His 65.56 rating leads the rest of the field outside the top two picks, and while his 6% career win rate is modest, he's shown enough consistency to earn a board spot. At 3/1 he's not a throwaway price, and in a race where the top choices could hook each other early, he could be there to pick up the pieces.

The opening trio of races gives us a strong sample of what this card has to offer. Miss the Hype (R1, 4/1 ML) kicks things off on the front end with an 85-plus TrackWiz rating over seven furlongs — a nice spot to see whether the price holds or gets bet down before post. Race 2 is the most straightforward of the free races: Queen of Attitude draws even-money on the morning line and posted a 90 rating, the highest of any free-race pick on the card. When a horse grades that high and still offers a fair price, you pay attention. Conspiracytheorist rounds out the free looks in Race 3 at 7/2 over six furlongs — a pace scenario worth tracking given the sprint distance and the dirt surface.

One thread connecting these three free picks: all run on a dirt track that should be playing fairly honest today. No rain in the forecast, no major moisture concerns — which means early speed is neither especially punished nor handed a huge gift. Class and raw ability should win out, and these three horses grade out well on both counts.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

1:50 AM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Bettermakethattwo is a heavy favorite but faces a genuine threat from Mr. Splash, who is quietly overpriced at 6/1 with the second-best rating on the card.

win1BettermakethattwoML 4/5

Bettermakethattwo is as close to a lock as you'll find in a claiming race — a 28% career win rate, a field-topping 86.12 TrackWiz rating, and 4/5 morning-line odds that reflect trainer Terry Neubuhr's confidence. Neville Stephenson has the call and this horse knows how to win at 7 furlongs on dirt. The short price means you'll want to use him in exotics rather than straight win bets, but his presence anchors any ticket here.

place3Mr. SplashML 6/1

Mr. Splash is the most undervalued horse in this race. His 82.71 TrackWiz rating is just a tick below the favorite's, yet he opens at 6/1 — that's a significant overlay for a horse with legitimate form. Rachaad Knights picks up the mount for Mike Taphorn, and his 13% career win rate while spending time at claiming level suggests he's capable of running better than his price. In exactas and trifectas, he's a must-use.

show4Saturdays BabeML 3/1

Saturdays Babe brings the best career win percentage of any horse in this race at 33%, which tells you she finds ways to hit the board even when not winning outright. Shavon Townsend guides her for Judy Hunter's stable, and 3/1 is a workable price for a show-ticket hedge. With two high-rated horses above her in our analysis, the natural landing spot for a competitive filly like her is a board finish.

Race 5

2:15 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Finding Ways owns this allowance-optional claimer on paper with the highest rating and win percentage in a field that lacks the class to seriously challenge her.

win6Finding WaysML 2/1

Finding Ways is the standout in Race 5 — an 88.54 TrackWiz rating, a 40% career win rate, and a 2/1 morning line that represents real value given her dominance over this field. Christopher Roy Mamdeen rides for Robert Maybin's barn, and Maybin has had horses firing on this card. Six furlongs on dirt is a distance that suits a horse with her kind of speed profile, and the allowance-optional tag means she could be stepping into a spot she's already outgrown.

place3Flipping FishML 5/1

Flipping Fish is the second-best horse in this race by TrackWiz rating at 74.76, and the 5/1 morning line gives him real exotic value. Jerry Gourneau trains him with Damario Bynoe up, and his 20% career win rate at an average speed of 55 — the highest in the field — makes him a legitimate threat to steal the race if the pace gets hot. He's a strong place contender and a key part of any exacta or trifecta construction.

show2RhodesiaML 7/1

Rhodesia at 7/1 is a sneaky show-ticket play with a 62.02 rating and 20% career win rate for trainer Monique Goulet. Rachaad Knights gives her capable handling, and at a price where the payout could be meaningful, she's worth including. If Finding Ways and Flipping Fish get into a pace battle, Rhodesia is the type of closer who can emerge for the bronze.

Race 6

2:40 AM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

A stakes field with a chalk-busting angle — Evolution opens as the 6/5 favorite but is outrated by multiple rivals, making this a prime spot to fade the morning line and build exotics around What a Force.

win5What a ForceML 9/5

What a Force headlines our analysis here despite opening at 9/5, because the 82.71 TrackWiz rating tells a clearer story than the morning line does. A 33% career win rate, the top average speed figure in the race at 55, and trainer Tim Rycroft placing Jose Mariano Asencio in the saddle signals confidence. In a stakes field at 6 furlongs, she has the raw ability to go straight to the lead or stalk and pounce — either way, she looks like the most complete horse in here.

place3WecanonlyimagineML 12/1

Wecanonlyimagine opens at 12/1 and that price is crying out for attention. A 73.96 TrackWiz rating slots her third in this field, but an eye-popping 60% career win rate — the highest in the race — suggests she is far more accomplished than her morning line implies. Neville Stephenson takes the mount for trainer Jared Brown, and if the pace gets contentious early, this horse could sit comfortably and run through late. She's a genuine overlay and the best value play on the ticket in Race 6.

show1Witt's Lil RingerML 10/1

Witt's Lil Ringer at 10/1 is worth a look as a show inclusion for exotic players. Her 64.27 rating and 28% career win rate put her in a solid middle-tier grouping in this stakes field, and Dario Dalrymple aboard for Jerry Gourneau's barn — one of the more active outfits on the card — keeps her in consideration. In a race where the favorite looks beatable and the field is spread out, she's a logical third wheel.

Race 7

3:05 AM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

The largest field of the day goes to the gate in the second stakes race, with Dontgiveupthefight standing out on ratings but a packed middle group from Emirates Affair to Welcometohollywood capable of making this interesting.

win11DontgiveupthefightML 2/1

Dontgiveupthefight is our top selection and it isn't particularly close — an 88.54 TrackWiz rating, a 45% career win rate, and a morning line of 2/1 that reflects legitimate top-of-the-class credentials. Trainer Robertino Diodoro is a name that commands respect wherever his horses run, and Kimal Santo gets the call in a 6-furlong stakes race. The average speed figure of 54 ties several others in the field, but the combination of rating and win percentage here is the best in a loaded race.

place6Emirates AffairML 6/1

Emirates Affair opens at 6/1 with a 73.52 rating and a 24% career win rate, splitting time with stablemate Mad About Marie under trainer Steve Keplin, Jr. Sven Balroop handles her in a field where the pace could be ferocious with this many horses. She has the profile of a horse who runs her best when chasing quality company, and in a stakes race this competitive, landing on the board at 6/1 would be a satisfying return.

show5Mad About MarieML 4/1

Mad About Marie is a natural companion piece to Emirates Affair in the exotics — same barn in Steve Keplin, Jr., and at 4/1 she opens with a 73.23 rating that makes her a legitimate threat. Antonio Whitehall gets the mount, and a 22% career win rate in stakes company is not something to dismiss. She's the type who could sit third and run through tiring horses late in a pace-pressured sprint.

Race 8

3:30 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Delvecchio and In Form look like a class above in this 5½-furlong dirt claimer, with Ship Boss lurking as the main speed threat if the top two get into trouble.

win7DelvecchioML 8/5

Delvecchio is a deserving favorite at 8/5 — an 85.50 TrackWiz rating, a 22% career win rate, and Tom Gardipy, Jr.'s barn has been placing horses well all meet. Javaniel R. Patterson is an active jockey on this card and knows how to time a move at a sprint distance. At 5½ furlongs, early speed is king, and Delvecchio's figures suggest he's built for exactly this kind of short, sharp dash.

place8In FormML 6/1

In Form opens at 6/1 with an 82.71 TrackWiz rating that's just a hair off our top pick — that's genuine talent at a generous price. Antonio Whitehall rides for Monique Goulet's stable, and a 25% career win rate speaks to a horse who finds the board regularly. The knock is the 51 average speed figure — lowest of any top contender — but if the race sets up with early chaos, a late-running profile could get the job done for a place finish.

show1Ship BossML 5/2

Ship Boss is the honest third choice here at 5/2 with a 75.40 rating and 15% career win rate for trainer Terry James Cole. Neville Stephenson gives him a live chance from post one, and at a sprint distance the rail can be a gift if the horse breaks cleanly. He's the type of mid-tier claimer who can earn a board finish when the two big dogs get into a battle, making him a natural show-ticket anchor.

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Bottom line for today at Assiniboia: Queen of Attitude is the sharpest free-race play on the card, and the Stakes double in Races 6 and 7 is where the real money is made or lost this afternoon. Miss the Hype and Conspiracytheorist give casual players solid free-race targets, while subscribers get the full pace breakdown, exotic structures, and every angle we've identified across all eight races. Grab the complete analysis at TrackWiz Premium and make today count.

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