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Assiniboia Picks & Predictions — June 23, 2026

Tuesday, June 23, 20267 racesAssiniboia

It's a wet one at Assiniboia Downs today. Rain has moved in and temperatures are sitting at 62°F, which means the dirt strip is going to be playing differently than what you'd see on a sunny Prairie afternoon. Expect a sealed or muddy track surface — and that changes everything from pace scenarios to which horses can handle the slop.

We've got a seven-race card on tap, including two stakes races (Races 3 and 5) that give today a legitimate stakes-day feel. Whether you're here for the cards or just looking to hammer a couple of solid spots, there's plenty to dig into.

Three races are fully unlocked for everyone — Races 1, 2, and 3 — so you can see exactly how TrackWiz builds its analysis before deciding if you want the full-card breakdown. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:30 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

Ghost Hero enters as the morning-line favorite in this Allowance Optional Claiming sprint, but there's enough legitimate firepower underneath to make the exacta and trifecta worth building out.

win3Ghost HeroML 6/5

Ghost Hero is the class of this field on paper, posting a TrackWiz rating of 86.9 — the top mark in the race — and carrying a career win rate of 40%, which is exceptional at any level. Antonio Whitehall gets the call for trainer Steven Gaskin, and the 6/5 morning line reflects the market's respect. At 7.5 furlongs on the dirt, a horse with that kind of consistency should be forwardly placed and hard to run down.

place5Falsely AccusedML 5/1

Falsely Accused is the sneaky piece of this puzzle. A TrackWiz rating of 84.17 puts her firmly in contention, and an average speed figure of 54 — matching the top tier of this field — suggests she can keep pace. Trainer Jason Homer's runner has a lower career win percentage (10%) but that rating says she's been doing plenty right lately, and 5/1 on the morning line is a fair price to land in the exacta.

show1Mr JawsML 2/1

Mr. Jaws is a sensible hedge at 2/1, rated 80.1 with a 21% career win rate — respectable numbers in a six-horse field. Jockey Dario Dalrymple gives him a capable pilot, and his average speed figure of 53 keeps him in the mix pace-wise. He may not have the ceiling of the top two, but he's a safe trifecta anchor if the top choices run into trouble.

Race 2

1:00 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

She's So Croatian is a heavy morning-line favorite at 4/5 in this dirt Claiming sprint, but the real question is whether Amplify or a fringe player can steal a piece at a juicy price.

win3She's So CroatianML 4/5

She's So Croatian owns the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at a clean 90.0, making her the standout selection in this Claiming sprint. Javaniel R. Patterson picks up the mount for trainer Wendy Anderson, and her average speed figure of 53 leads the field. Even at a short 4/5 morning line, the numbers say she's the right play — when a horse rates this far clear of the competition, you don't fight the data.

place4AmplifyML 3/1

Amplify is the most logical running mate at 3/1, posting a solid 84.13 TrackWiz rating — second best in the field — under Sven Balroop for trainer Ryan Desjarlais. His average speed figure of 52 is right in the pack, but his overall profile is a level above most of these. If the favorite hits any kind of traffic trouble, Amplify is positioned to capitalize and grab second.

show7Hyper HolidayML 5/1

Hyper Holiday is worth a look for trifecta purposes at 5/1 morning line. The TrackWiz rating of 57.24 makes him a clear third-tier horse here, but Rashawn Brewster gives him a live pair of hands and trainer Devon Gittens' runners are worth a glance. At 5/1, you're getting more than fair value on a show slot in a race where the top two could run away from the field.

Race 3

1:25 AM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

A six-horse Stakes sprint at 6 furlongs where Prime Suspect looks like the class edge, but Relaxgodoitramone's 50% career win rate and Classico's superior average speed make this more than a one-horse show.

win5Prime SuspectML 2/1

Prime Suspect packs the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 88.54, and Sven Balroop — one of the more active riders on this card — is in the irons for trainer Steve Keplin Jr. The 2/1 morning line is fair for a Stakes top choice, and a 20% career win rate in what is likely a competitive career is respectable at this level. With the entire field clocking identical average speed figures of 54 except Classico, the edge here is in the overall quality score.

place1RelaxgodoitramoneML 5/1

Relaxgodoitramone is a fascinating place play at 5/1. A 50% career win rate is the best in this field by a wide margin — that kind of conversion is genuinely unusual and suggests this horse performs when conditions align. Jose Mariano Asencio picks up the mount for trainer Tim Rycroft, and a rating of 76.53 puts him well within striking distance. The double-digit odds gap between his morning line and his win percentage tells you there may be some value being left on the table.

show6ClassicoML 3/1

Classico has a subtle edge no one else in this field can claim — a 55 average speed figure, one tick better than every other runner here. Trainer Michael Nault sends him out with Antonio Whitehall aboard, and a TrackWiz rating of 74.0 combined with a 25% career win rate makes him a legitimate threat to hit the board. At 3/1, he's not a huge overlay, but he's a smart inclusion in trifecta construction.

The free portion of today's card gives you a strong cross-section of the action. Ghost Hero opens the day in a 7½-furlong Allowance Optional Claiming event — that extra half-furlong off a sprint distance can sort fields in a hurry, and our top rating of 86.9 says he's the one to beat at 6/5 on the morning line. In Race 2, She's So Croatian draws our highest free-race rating at 90 and goes off as the heavy 4/5 favorite in a 5½-furlong Claiming sprint — on a sealed track, short-field sprints like this one often go chalk, so the question is whether the price is worth it or if exotics are the smarter play.

The headliner of the free races is Race 3 — a 6-furlong Stakes event where Prime Suspect earns an 88.54 rating at a juicy 2/1 morning line. Stakes races on off tracks can be volatile, but Prime Suspect's number gives us enough confidence to make him the marquee free selection of the afternoon. Keep an eye on how the track is playing through the first couple of races — that'll tell you a lot about whether closers are getting any help today or if it's all about getting to the front.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

1:50 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Three horses rated 83 or better set up a sharp exacta battle in this one-mile Claiming affair, with the morning line inverted from what the TrackWiz numbers suggest — creating some interesting wagering angles.

win3EllsML 3/1

Ells tops our ratings at 87.08 despite going off at 3/1 — longer odds than morning-line favorite Cajun Eddie — which is the kind of value discrepancy worth noting. Renaldo Cumberbatch takes the mount for Jerry Gourneau, and Ells' 24% career win rate over what appears to be a solid career makes him the data-backed top choice at a mile on the dirt. When the numbers say one thing and the odds say another, that's where opportunity lives.

place4Cajun EddieML 2/1

Cajun Eddie is the morning-line chalk at 2/1 and his credentials back it up — an 85.61 TrackWiz rating and a 29% career win rate that's the best among the top contenders. Ciera Pruitt rides for trainer Tom Gardipy Jr., a barn that also has Golden Buck in here, so the connections know this field well. He's not a massive value at 2/1, but in a three-horse consensus box, he earns his place.

show2Golden BuckML 5/1

Golden Buck at 5/1 is the value play to round out trifecta tickets. Trainer Tom Gardipy Jr. runs him alongside Cajun Eddie, and his 83.19 TrackWiz rating — third best in the field — with a 16% career win rate says he belongs in the mix at a mile. Tyrone Nelson gets the mount, and at 5/1 he's offering better-than-fair return on what is clearly a capable horse by the numbers.

Race 5

2:15 AM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

The day's second Stakes race features a legitimate standout in Mission Beach, but Kauai Dan's raw speed figures and Ceepeegee's overall profile give this 6-furlong dirt sprint a compelling supporting cast worth keying underneath.

win4Mission BeachML 9/5

Mission Beach is the clear top choice here with a 88.83 TrackWiz rating — best in the field — and a 34% career win rate that rivals Kauai Dan at the top of this group. Luis A. Fuentes picks up the mount for trainer Jose Silva Jr., and Mission Beach's average speed figure of 57 is tied for best in the race. At 9/5, the morning line reflects legitimate favoritism without being an extreme overlay situation.

place3Kauai DanML 6/1

Kauai Dan is a compelling place play at 6/1 and arguably the most intriguing number in the race. He matches Mission Beach with a 57 average speed figure — tied for the best on the card — and carries a 34% career win rate for trainer Jared Brown, who also has Omaha Warrior in Race 3. Damario Bynoe gets the call, and at 6/1 you're getting real value on a horse whose speed profile suggests he can run with anyone in here.

show8CeepeegeeML 3/1

Ceepeegee rounds out the top three with a TrackWiz rating of 76.44 and an average speed figure of 55 — third best in the race. Sven Balroop continues his busy card day in the irons for trainer Steve Keplin Jr., and an 18% career win rate at this level is solid. At 3/1 morning line, he's a reasonable bridge horse in exactas and trifectas behind the top two.

Race 6

2:40 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Maiden Claiming maiden races are always a bit of a puzzle — nobody has broken their maiden yet — but the rating spread here is wider than usual, giving us a clear top tier and some genuine chaos in the middle of the field.

win2GrenacheML 5/2

Grenache stands out with the top TrackWiz rating at 85.75 in a field where nobody has a career win to their name, which is exactly the profile you want to anchor around in maiden claiming. Trainer Wendy Anderson, who has runners all over this card, sends her out with Damario Bynoe aboard. Despite an average speed figure of 52 that's not the best in the field, the overall quality score and the trainer's card-wide presence give Grenache a meaningful edge here at 5/2.

place4Little TribuneML 3/1

Little Tribune is the place play worth leaning on at 3/1 morning line. A TrackWiz rating of 74.7 puts her second in the field and her 53 average speed figure gives her a slight edge over Grenache in raw pace terms. Trainer Robert Maybin sends her out with Christopher Roy Mamdeen, and in a maiden race where the margin between first and second can be razor-thin, she's a live threat to grab a piece at a fair price.

show1Golden CheeroML 2/1

Golden Cheero at 2/1 is technically the morning-line favorite, and a 54 average speed figure — best in the field — is worth respecting. Trainer Eugene Burns gives her to Shavon Townsend, and the 58.33 rating slots her squarely in the conversation despite ranking third in our analysis. She's a safe show hedge, and her raw speed gives her a path to outrunning her rating if the pace sets up right.

Race 7

3:05 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Switzler Jammin is a heavy favorite in this 6-furlong Claiming finale, but there's an interesting value battle for the minor spots between Brannigan and Eye Be Seeing You that makes the bottom of the ticket worth thinking through.

win2Switzler JamminML 7/5

Switzler Jammin comes in with the top TrackWiz rating on the card at 89.42 and owns a 30% career win rate — genuinely strong numbers that justify the 7/5 morning line. Antonio Whitehall picks up the mount for trainer Elton Dickey, and an average speed figure of 54 puts Switzler Jammin right in the pace picture at 6 furlongs. When you see a horse rating nearly 17 points clear of the second-best in the field, that gap is real and it matters.

place4BranniganML 7/2

Brannigan at 7/2 is a curious runner — a 72.1 TrackWiz rating and a 7% career win rate might give you pause, but Javaniel R. Patterson picks up the mount for Jerry Gourneau, a trainer with multiple runners on the day. His 52 average speed figure suggests he's more of a late-run type in a race that could be dominated early by the favorite, which may open the door for him to sneak into the exacta.

show7Eye Be Seeing YouML 6/1

Eye Be Seeing You has the best average speed figure among the secondary contenders at 55 — one tick better than the top three — and Christopher Roy Mamdeen is a capable rider who puts horses in spots to succeed. Trainer Robert Maybin's runner carries a 67.71 TrackWiz rating at 6/1 morning line, making him a legitimate overlay for trifecta purposes. If the pace up front gets hot, his raw speed could carry him into the board.

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Bottom line for today at Assiniboia: the rain is the story, and how the track plays early will set the tone for everything that follows. Free-race standouts Ghost Hero, She's So Croatian, and Prime Suspect give you a solid starting point, while Mission Beach and Switzler Jammin headline the premium side of the card. Smart bettors will be watching the bias closely and adjusting in real time — and that's exactly the kind of edge our full-card analysis is built to provide. Subscribers can access the complete breakdown right now at /pricing.

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