Assiniboia Picks & Predictions — June 22, 2026
It's a pleasant Monday at Assiniboia Downs — 68°F and partly cloudy, the kind of afternoon where the track plays honest and speed figures tell a cleaner story. Seven races on the dirt, all at six furlongs, which means pace is going to be the throughline all day long. When every race is the same distance on the same surface, patterns emerge fast, and today's card is full of them.
The card opens with a Maiden Special Weight headlined by the heavy morning-line favorite Ez Tree Ates before moving into a trio of Claiming races that give us some real handicapping meat. Things get especially interesting in the back half, where a wide-open Maiden Claiming and a Maiden Special Weight with a live overlay both offer serious exotic opportunities. The nightcap Allowance figures to be the day's most competitive race from top to bottom.
Three races are fully open to all TrackWiz readers — no subscription required. The remaining four are unlocked for premium members, and trust us, that's where the most actionable angles live today.
Best Bets
Race 1
Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt
A maiden special weight opener that looks top-heavy on paper — one horse towers over the field in our ratings, but three others are bunched close enough to make the exotics interesting.
Ez Tree Ates is the clear standout here, posting an 86.87 TrackWiz rating that dwarfs every other entrant in this maiden field. Going off at 4/5 on the morning line, the market agrees, and trainer Lise Pruitt saddles two horses in this race — a sign of stable confidence in the program. Jockey Ciera Pruitt gets the call, and the Pruitt barn clearly likes this one's chances at 6 furlongs on the dirt.
Off the Payroll sits second in our ratings at 68.25 and draws the 5 post with Tyrone Nelson aboard for trainer Tom Gardipy Jr. In a field of first-time or lightly raced maidens, that 16-point gap over third-ranked Madeline Tothe Max gives Off the Payroll a reasonable path to the exacta slot if the favorite handles the pressure.
Madeline Tothe Max checks in with a 54.17 rating and draws post 4 with leading rider Javaniel R. Patterson in the irons for trainer Mike Taphorn. In a maiden race where form can be thin and early breaks matter, Patterson's experience navigating a short-field sprint makes this a sensible show anchor in your trifecta tickets.
Race 2
Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
The morning-line favorite doesn't top our ratings in this six-furlong claimer — there's a big ratings gap between our top pick and the public choice, setting up a potential overlay situation worth exploring.
Not So Swift tops our TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 — a full 16 points clear of the next horse — despite being listed at 4/1 on the morning line while the 7/5 favorite Catch the Dream sits considerably lower in our model at 44.42. That kind of disconnect between public money and our internal data is exactly the overlay spot we love to highlight. Damario Bynoe rides, and the horse shows the highest average speed figure in the field at 54.
The Wright Way is our place pick and arguably the best value angle on the entire card at 15/1 on the morning line. Despite that big price, The Wright Way rates second in the field at 69.23 on our model and carries a 12% career win rate. Trainer Wendy Anderson and jockey Javaniel R. Patterson have a competitive combination here, and 15/1 for a second-ranked horse in a six-horse field is the kind of number that pays for itself on exactas.
Sense of Awe brings the most impressive career win percentage in the field at 40%, which is a number that should get your attention in any race. The 3/1 morning line reflects some public respect, but the 51.43 rating suggests a horse who shows up more than our model fully credits. Trainer Jerry Gourneau and jockey Dario Dalrymple keep this one on our show radar.
Race 3
Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
The morning-line favorite and our top-rated horse are two different horses in this seven-runner claimer, and that divergence creates real value opportunities throughout the ticket.
Coal Boy tops the TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 — matching the high-water mark we've seen today — and goes at a generous 4/1 on the morning line despite that edge. Trainer Wendy Anderson's barn is in good form today, and Damario Bynoe gets back aboard with a 27% career win rate from Coal Boy's past performances backing up the confidence. At six furlongs on dirt, this horse's profile fits the conditions cleanly.
Piccata Prince rates second in the field at 74.48 and offers a compelling pace angle in this sprint. The 3/1 morning line is fair for a horse that pairs well statistically with our top pick, and the 55 average speed figure ties for the field's best alongside Suit Me Up Charlie. Trainer Jerry Gourneau fields two horses in this race — Flying Tex is his other runner — but Sheldon Chickeness takes the mount on Piccata Prince, suggesting the barn's top choice here.
Buzzinga Karma opens as the 7/5 morning-line favorite despite rating only third in our model at 52.52. The public clearly respects this one's recent form, and a 15% career win rate with a solid 54 average speed figure keeps Buzzinga Karma from being dismissed entirely. As a show ticket hedge, there's enough back-class here to make it a reasonable inclusion — just don't let the short price drive you to over-invest.
Our free coverage spans the first three races, and there's genuine value to unpack across all of them. Ez Tree Ates enters Race 1 as a prohibitive favorite at 4/5 on the morning line — that rating of 86.87 backs up the chalk, but in maiden races, favorites can be fragile and overlays can emerge late. In the two Claiming races that follow, Not So Swift (Race 2) and Coal Boy (Race 3) both share identical TrackWiz ratings of 85.62 and are both sitting at 4/1 on the morning line. When two horses in back-to-back races come up identical in our model at the same price, that's worth paying attention to — the pace scenario and post position could be the tiebreaker in each.
With a uniform six-furlong sprint format all day, early speed and gate-to-wire potential will be a recurring theme. Keep an eye on how the first couple of races develop — if front-runners are wiring the field, that context will sharpen your read on everything that follows.
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Assiniboia is giving us a clean, consistent card today — seven dirt sprints, honest conditions, and several spots where the TrackWiz model diverges meaningfully from the morning line. Ez Tree Ates, Not So Swift, and Coal Boy lead our free picks, while Short Speech, Livininthefastlane, Judge Oliver, and Nikkitysplit round out a premium card with real exotic upside. If you're playing the full card, the subscriber analysis has everything you need. Check out /pricing to unlock it all before post time.