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Assiniboia Picks & Predictions — June 22, 2026

June 22, 20267 racesAll Assiniboia picks

This card ran on June 22, 2026.

Best bets at Assiniboia, June 22, 2026

Race 12Ez Tree AtesML 4/58:30 PM EDT

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It's a pleasant Monday at Assiniboia Downs — 68°F and partly cloudy, the kind of afternoon where the track plays honest and speed figures tell a cleaner story. Seven races on the dirt, all at six furlongs, which means pace is going to be the throughline all day long. When every race is the same distance on the same surface, patterns emerge fast, and today's card is full of them.

The card opens with a Maiden Special Weight headlined by the heavy morning-line favorite Ez Tree Ates before moving into a trio of Claiming races that give us some real handicapping meat. Things get especially interesting in the back half, where a wide-open Maiden Claiming and a Maiden Special Weight with a live overlay both offer serious exotic opportunities. The nightcap Allowance figures to be the day's most competitive race from top to bottom.

Three races are fully open to all TrackWiz readers — no subscription required. The remaining four are unlocked for premium members, and trust us, that's where the most actionable angles live today.

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Race 1

8:30 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden special weight opener that looks top-heavy on paper — one horse towers over the field in our ratings, but three others are bunched close enough to make the exotics interesting.

win2Ez Tree AtesML 4/5

Ez Tree Ates is the clear standout here, posting an 86.87 TrackWiz rating that dwarfs every other entrant in this maiden field. Going off at 4/5 on the morning line, the market agrees, and trainer Lise Pruitt saddles two horses in this race — a sign of stable confidence in the program. Jockey Ciera Pruitt gets the call, and the Pruitt barn clearly likes this one's chances at 6 furlongs on the dirt.

place5Off the PayrollML 5/2

Off the Payroll sits second in our ratings at 68.25 and draws the 5 post with Tyrone Nelson aboard for trainer Tom Gardipy Jr. In a field of first-time or lightly raced maidens, that 16-point gap over third-ranked Madeline Tothe Max gives Off the Payroll a reasonable path to the exacta slot if the favorite handles the pressure.

show4Madeline Tothe MaxML 9/2

Madeline Tothe Max checks in with a 54.17 rating and draws post 4 with leading rider Javaniel R. Patterson in the irons for trainer Mike Taphorn. In a maiden race where form can be thin and early breaks matter, Patterson's experience navigating a short-field sprint makes this a sensible show anchor in your trifecta tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

9:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite doesn't top our ratings in this six-furlong claimer — there's a big ratings gap between our top pick and the public choice, setting up a potential overlay situation worth exploring.

win4Not So SwiftML 4/1

Not So Swift tops our TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 — a full 16 points clear of the next horse — despite being listed at 4/1 on the morning line while the 7/5 favorite Catch the Dream sits considerably lower in our model at 44.42. That kind of disconnect between public money and our internal data is exactly the overlay spot we love to highlight. Damario Bynoe rides, and the horse shows the highest average speed figure in the field at 54.

place3The Wright WayML 15/1

The Wright Way is our place pick and arguably the best value angle on the entire card at 15/1 on the morning line. Despite that big price, The Wright Way rates second in the field at 69.23 on our model and carries a 12% career win rate. Trainer Wendy Anderson and jockey Javaniel R. Patterson have a competitive combination here, and 15/1 for a second-ranked horse in a six-horse field is the kind of number that pays for itself on exactas.

show6Sense of AweML 3/1

Sense of Awe brings the most impressive career win percentage in the field at 40%, which is a number that should get your attention in any race. The 3/1 morning line reflects some public respect, but the 51.43 rating suggests a horse who shows up more than our model fully credits. Trainer Jerry Gourneau and jockey Dario Dalrymple keep this one on our show radar.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Our free coverage spans the first three races, and there's genuine value to unpack across all of them. Ez Tree Ates enters Race 1 as a prohibitive favorite at 4/5 on the morning line — that rating of 86.87 backs up the chalk, but in maiden races, favorites can be fragile and overlays can emerge late. In the two Claiming races that follow, Not So Swift (Race 2) and Coal Boy (Race 3) both share identical TrackWiz ratings of 85.62 and are both sitting at 4/1 on the morning line. When two horses in back-to-back races come up identical in our model at the same price, that's worth paying attention to — the pace scenario and post position could be the tiebreaker in each.

With a uniform six-furlong sprint format all day, early speed and gate-to-wire potential will be a recurring theme. Keep an eye on how the first couple of races develop — if front-runners are wiring the field, that context will sharpen your read on everything that follows.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

9:25 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite and our top-rated horse are two different horses in this seven-runner claimer, and that divergence creates real value opportunities throughout the ticket.

win3Coal BoyML 4/1

Coal Boy tops the TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 — matching the high-water mark we've seen today — and goes at a generous 4/1 on the morning line despite that edge. Trainer Wendy Anderson's barn is in good form today, and Damario Bynoe gets back aboard with a 27% career win rate from Coal Boy's past performances backing up the confidence. At six furlongs on dirt, this horse's profile fits the conditions cleanly.

place5Piccata PrinceML 3/1

Piccata Prince rates second in the field at 74.48 and offers a compelling pace angle in this sprint. The 3/1 morning line is fair for a horse that pairs well statistically with our top pick, and the 55 average speed figure ties for the field's best alongside Suit Me Up Charlie. Trainer Jerry Gourneau fields two horses in this race — Flying Tex is his other runner — but Sheldon Chickeness takes the mount on Piccata Prince, suggesting the barn's top choice here.

show4Buzzinga KarmaML 7/5

Buzzinga Karma opens as the 7/5 morning-line favorite despite rating only third in our model at 52.52. The public clearly respects this one's recent form, and a 15% career win rate with a solid 54 average speed figure keeps Buzzinga Karma from being dismissed entirely. As a show ticket hedge, there's enough back-class here to make it a reasonable inclusion — just don't let the short price drive you to over-invest.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 4

9:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This six-furlong claimer has a genuine standout at the top of our ratings, but the mid-tier is tight enough that the secondary spots could go several ways — exacta construction is worth the extra attention here.

win6Short SpeechML 9/5

Short Speech tops our TrackWiz model at an impressive 88.83 rating and is one of just two horses in today's card to crack the 85+ threshold. The 9/5 morning line makes this far from a throwaway favorite — Damario Bynoe has been one of the busier riders on this card and takes the call for trainer Jerry Gourneau, who is clearly active today. An 18% career win rate and a 52 average speed figure round out a profile that our model strongly endorses.

place1I'm All Shook UpML 4/1

I'm All Shook Up rates second in the field at 64.9 and exits a competitive spot with a 54 average speed figure — tied for the field's best alongside Broken Promises. Trainer Jessica Bell gives Ciera Pruitt the mount, and at 4/1 on the morning line, this is a solid place candidate that offers genuine value in exactas beneath our top pick.

show3By RequestML 5/2

By Request checks in third in our ratings at 63.54, just a tick behind I'm All Shook Up, and the 5/2 morning line suggests the public views this as a legitimate contender. The 53 average speed figure is slightly below the top horses, but Tyrone Nelson has experience in these sprint conditions and trainer Jared Brown is represented with By Request as a steady, consistent type. A good inclusion in trifecta coverage.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 5

10:15 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open ten-horse maiden claimer where the morning-line favorite sits well down our ratings list — our top pick opens at double-digits on the morning line, making this a prime value-hunting race.

win10LivininthefastlaneML 10/1

Livininthefastlane is our top-rated horse at 76.88 — a clear margin above the rest of this field — yet opens at 10/1 on the morning line, making this one of the better overlay spots on today's card. Trainer Devon Gittens gets Mathew Bennett aboard, and the 53 average speed figure is solid for a maiden claimer. When our model's top-rated horse in a maiden field is available at 10/1, that's the kind of number that drives value-minded players to the windows.

place6Red Dirt AlleyML 5/2

Red Dirt Alley is our place selection at a 62.16 rating and opens at 5/2 on the morning line, making it one of the more fairly priced horses in our top three here. Trainer Jerry Gourneau gives Neville Stephenson the mount, and the 53 average speed figure aligns with the pace expectations for a six-furlong maiden claimer on dirt. In a wide-open field of ten, Red Dirt Alley's consistent speed profile makes it a reliable place anchor.

show2CashflowML 7/2

Cashflow rates third in our model at 60.7 and is one of just a handful of horses in this field posting a 53 average speed figure. The 7/2 morning line suggests public respect for Dario Dalrymple's mount under trainer Craig Robert Smith, and in a ten-horse maiden claimer where pace can get messy early, a horse with a clean profile and consistent speed is exactly the kind of show ticket you want to hold.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 6

10:40 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

An eleven-horse maiden special weight with a market favorite who sits third in our ratings — our top pick at 6/1 looks like the best overlay in what could be an unpredictable, spread-out sprint.

win3Judge OliverML 6/1

Judge Oliver tops our TrackWiz ratings at 82.71 and opens at 6/1 on the morning line despite that model edge — a meaningful gap over the 6/5 morning-line favorite Cash Mule, who rates third in our model at 59.67. Trainer Jason Homer doubles up in this race with both Judge Oliver and Cash Mule, and Renaldo Cumberbatch gets the nod on the higher-rated runner, which is worth noting. The 53 average speed figure is competitive in this field, and the 21-point rating edge over the favorite is hard to overlook.

place7American WittML 8/1

American Witt is our place pick at 61.43 and opens at 8/1 — providing genuine value for an exotics-minded bettor. Trainer Jerry Gourneau is well-represented on today's card and sends out American Witt with Sheldon Chickeness in the irons, with a 54 average speed figure that ties for the field's top mark. At 8/1, a horse rated this high in an eleven-runner maiden field deserves a spot on your exacta and trifecta tickets.

show2Cash MuleML 6/5

Cash Mule draws the most public action at 6/5 on the morning line and does show a 54 average speed figure — tied for best in the field — so the crowd isn't entirely wrong. Trainer Jason Homer's presence on both top horses in this race creates an interesting dynamic, but as a show selection, Cash Mule's market support ensures there's no value play here — it's simply a hedge for those wanting a safety net in deeper exotics.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Race 7

11:05 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

This ten-horse allowance has a clear top of the market, but a couple of intriguing career win percentages buried in the field add a layer of intrigue — the pace scenario over six furlongs could be lively.

win6NikkitysplitML 2/1

Nikkitysplit tops our model at 88.54 and is the 2/1 morning-line choice — the market and our ratings are aligned here for good reason. A 25% career win rate is strong context for a horse at this level, and trainer Jared Brown has Antonio Whitehall aboard for what looks like a confident spot. With the highest rating in what is a competitive allowance field, Nikkitysplit's combination of speed profile and form makes this our most confident win selection of the later races.

place3Boujee BritchesML 5/1

Boujee Britches rates second in the field at 74.27 and opens at 5/1 — a fair price for a horse that profiles as the logical main challenger to the favorite. Trainer Wendy Anderson and jockey Damario Bynoe combine on this one, and a 10% career win rate in allowance company reflects consistent effort if not dominant form. The 53 average speed figure suggests Boujee Britches can press the pace or sit just off it in a six-furlong sprint.

show9Mina MarinaML 3/1

Mina Marina is an interesting show selection at 3/1 on the morning line, posting the field's best average speed figure at 55 — a number that stands out in this ten-horse allowance. Trainer Cindy Krasner sends out a horse that our model rates at 56.67, and while a 0% career win rate requires some caution, the raw speed profile says this horse could be further along than the record suggests. At 3/1, Mina Marina is a legitimate trifecta piece if she can translate that speed into a clean trip.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

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Assiniboia is giving us a clean, consistent card today — seven dirt sprints, honest conditions, and several spots where the TrackWiz model diverges meaningfully from the morning line. Ez Tree Ates, Not So Swift, and Coal Boy lead our free picks, while Short Speech, Livininthefastlane, Judge Oliver, and Nikkitysplit round out a premium card with real exotic upside. If you're playing the full card, the subscriber analysis has everything you need. Check out /pricing to unlock it all before post time.

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