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Ajax Downs Picks & Predictions — September 30, 2026

September 30, 20269 racesAll Ajax Downs picks

We're at Ajax Downs on Wednesday, September 30th, with a crisp, cloudy afternoon checking in at 68°F — solid racing weather that should keep the dirt surface consistent all day. Nine races are on the board, and if you love short, explosive Quarter Horse action, this is your kind of card.

The distances are tight — ranging from a blink-and-you-miss-it 110 yards all the way up to 400 yards — which means gate breaks and early speed are everything today. There's very little room to make up ground once you're behind, so pace scenario reads are going to be critical on every single race.

We've got Maiden openers to kick things off, a pair of Trials in the middle of the card, and Speed Index races bookending the back half. Plenty of angles to dig into, and TrackWiz analysis has you covered from Race 1 straight through the finale.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:55 PM EDT

Maiden · 300 yd · Dirt

A maiden sprint at 300 yards where one horse stands out head and shoulders above the field on ratings — but at 8/5, the market has already found him.

win3Oscar the GrouchML 8/5

Oscar the Grouch (3) is the class of this maiden field by a wide margin, posting a TrackWiz rating of 89.12 — more than 30 points clear of the next closest rival. Trainer Jason Pascoe also saddles Cold Hard Knox in this race, signaling stable confidence in the barn's runners, but the ratings gap tells you which one they believe in more. At 8/5 on the morning line, the price reflects his advantage, but in a short field of five maidens, the risk of chasing false value elsewhere seems greater than backing the standout. Jockey Cristian Benitez gets the call and that's a strong signal in a race like this.

place5Prettty Lil PoisonML 2/1

Prettty Lil Poison (5) comes in as the morning-line second choice at 2/1 and backs that up with a rating of 58.33 — the second-best figure in the field. In a maiden sprint, a horse with a legitimate rating edge over the bottom half of the field is a sensible place play, especially if Oscar the Grouch handles the favorite's pressure. Trainer Joe Tavares and jockey Brian Bell are a familiar combination at this level.

show2Bar Ef Ona SugarrushML 5/2

Bar Ef Ona Sugarrush (2) draws into the show spot with a rating of 57.5 — nearly identical to the place pick — making this a very tight grouping below the top choice. At 5/2 on the morning line, she could easily flip into the place position depending on the pace of the 300-yard dash. For exotic purposes, she's a legitimate inclusion in trifecta coverage.

Race 2

5:20 PM EDT

Maiden · 300 yd · Dirt

Two horses separate from the pack in this maiden dash — the ratings gap is real, and the rest of the field will be racing for third.

win2Jumpin Dashin WillieML 2/1

Jumpin Dashin Willie (2) tops the TrackWiz ratings in this field at 88.54, a substantial edge over a maiden group where most horses are unproven. Trainer Chantelle Bourgeois hands the mount to Cassandra Jeschke, a combination that carries stable confidence into the gate. At 2/1, the morning line respects his standing but the number isn't a blowout — there's still room for value if you're building exotics around him. In a 300-yard maiden event, the horse with the best rating and a capable rider is your anchor bet.

place4GoodlookingperryML 5/2

Goodlookingperry (4) is the clear second-best in this field with a rating of 80.35, and trainer Joe Tavares has a strong presence on today's card. The 5/2 morning line makes him a reasonable place play — especially in a race where the top two are in a tier of their own above the rest. Jockey Brian Bell brings experience to a horse who should comfortably find the board.

show5MakodeML 3/1

Makode (5) rounds out the show position with a rating of 71.92 — third-best in the field and a meaningful step above the remaining two runners. Trainer Bob Broadstock sends him out at 3/1 morning line, which suggests the barn believes there's something here worth a look. If the two top-rated horses have any kind of stumble out of the gate, Makode is right there to sneak into the exacta conversation.

Race 3

5:45 PM EDT

Trial · 400 yd · Dirt

The trial format at 400 yards adds intrigue — two horses bring prior wins to the gate while the rest are debut unknowns, setting up a compelling clash between experience and raw ability.

win1Cold Hard ChiefML 3/1

Cold Hard Chief (1) is our top selection here, bringing a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 and an eye-catching 66% career win rate to the table. That kind of win percentage is rare and speaks to a horse that consistently delivers when pointed at a race — crucial in a trial where only the best results qualify you for the next level. Trainer Jason Pascoe is well represented on today's card and clearly knows how to prepare a horse for a spot like this. At 3/1 on the morning line, there's genuine value for a horse with this kind of form.

place4My Gypsy GirlML 7/2

My Gypsy Girl (4) clocks in with a rating of 71.11 — second-best in the field — and is the only other horse whose numbers put her clearly in the mix. Trainer James Bogar sends her out at 7/2, and with Tony Phillips in the irons, she's got a professional team around her. In trial conditions where consistency matters, a horse with solid ratings and a credible connections profile belongs in your place and exotic bets.

show5Had to Be ValiantML 5/2

Had to Be Valiant (5) is a fascinating inclusion — her TrackWiz rating of 57.5 is modest by comparison, but she carries a 100% career win rate into this gate. That means she's undefeated, and while the sample may be small, a horse that has never lost brings a certain X-factor into a trial format. Trainer Bryn Robertson at 5/2 suggests the connections aren't hiding her — they think she belongs.

The first three races are free for all TrackWiz readers, and they give us a nice cross-section of what to expect today. Oscar the Grouch tops our free selections in Race 1 with an 89.12 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark among today's free picks — and at an 8/5 morning line, he represents a solid foundation for the day. In Race 2, Jumpin Dashin Willie earns an 88.54 rating going 300 yards in another Maiden, and while the 2/1 morning line is fair, there could be some value depending on how the board moves toward post time.

Race 3 steps up to 400 yards in Trial conditions, and Cold Hard Chief is our pick at 3/1 off an 87.08 rating. The extra yardage rewards a horse that can sustain its burst just a half-second longer than the 300-yard sprinters — watch for any horses in the Trial that showed sharp gate speed in their previous short-distance efforts. That's the angle we like here.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:10 PM EDT

Trial · 400 yd · Dirt

This 400-yard trial has a clear standout based on ratings and win percentage, but with several unproven horses in the mix, chaos is always one bad break away.

win4Stolen Ivory S DashML 5/2

Stolen Ivory S Dash (4) leads this field with a rating of 87.81 and a 50% career win rate — exactly the kind of profile you want in a trial where advancement is the goal. Trainer Bryn Robertson and jockey Ismael Eluid Mosqueira combine for what looks like a live, confidence-backed entry at 5/2 on the morning line. The rating gap over most of this field is significant, and the win percentage confirms this horse knows how to finish first when the lights are on. Solid top pick in a race with limited form to dissect.

place6Snowy GooseML 7/2

Snowy Goose (6) is the second-best rated horse here at 71.4 and comes in at a fair 7/2 on the morning line. Trainer Jason Pascoe is having an active day at Ajax Downs, and Snowy Goose represents a legitimate second choice for place and exotic purposes. The gap between her and the bottom half of the field is wide enough that she figures to be in the money if the top pick runs her race.

show2Baref Hurricane RushML 3/1

Baref Hurricane Rush (2) brings a rating of 56.67 and is the third-best rated runner in the field — enough to take the show spot if the top two separate at the front. Corry Beland rides for trainer Corey Illman at 3/1 morning line, meaning you're getting a fair price on a horse who realistically sits third in the pecking order. In trial races, the board often sorts itself by quality, and this one fits neatly into the third slot.

Race 5

6:35 PM EDT

Speed Index Race · 300 yd · Dirt

A Speed Index race at 300 yards brings a legitimate standout to the top — but the field has enough seasoned performers to make the lower positions genuinely competitive.

win1Srt the Final CutML 8/5

Srt the Final Cut (1) is the clear top choice here, matching Oscar the Grouch from Race 1 with a rating of 89.12 — the highest mark on the day at this distance. A 50% career win rate gives you confidence that this horse converts when pointed at a spot, and trainer James Bogar sends him out as the morning-line favorite at 8/5. Jockey Ismael Eluid Mosqueira gets the call and has been active all day. The Speed Index format rewards the horse with the best raw numbers, and this one brings exactly that.

place2Justt JacksonML 2/1

Justt Jackson (2) is a solid place contender with a rating of 69.15 and a career win percentage of 28% — meaning this horse has cashed in more than a quarter of his starts, a meaningful stat in a competitive field. Trainer Chantelle Bourgeois and jockey Cassandra Jeschke are a familiar pairing, and at 2/1 on the morning line, the market respects his chances. He's a natural fit for the place slot in this Speed Index event.

show3Ms Fixin to WinML 5/2

Ms Fixin to Win (3) rounds out the show position with a rating of 64.03 and an 11% career win rate — modest numbers, but she fits the third slot in this field's natural hierarchy. At 5/2 morning line, she's not offering much overlay, but as a show bet or trifecta backup she serves a purpose. Trainer Bob Broadstock keeps her competitive, and jockey Ramiro Sanchez Castillo has had plenty of live mounts today.

Race 6

7:00 PM EDT

Allowance · 110 yd · Dirt

A five-horse allowance sprint at 110 yards — the shortest distance on the card — where one horse's rating towers above the field but an interesting value angle lurks at the top of the board.

win3Cg Mega SpyML 2/1

Cg Mega Spy (3) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.54 and comes in as the 2/1 morning-line second choice, which is an interesting spot — strong numbers, fair price, and not burdened by being the chalk. Trainer Scott Reid sends her out with Cassandra Jeschke in the irons, and a 16% career win rate might look modest, but in a five-horse allowance field the ratings edge does a lot of the work. At 110 yards, this race will be decided in a blink — the horse that breaks cleanly and has the speed advantage wins, and that's this one.

place1Chasing ButterfliesML 3/1

Chasing Butterflies (1) brings the third-best rating in the field at 73.24 but the most impressive career win rate in this race at 25%. Trainer Richard W. Kennedy and jockey Ismael Eluid Mosqueira team up at 3/1, and a horse with a proven closing rate in allowance company is exactly what you want underneath in an exotic. There's a legitimate case she runs into the money if Cg Mega Spy handles the morning line pressure.

show5Sweet KaraML 8/5

Sweet Kara (5) holds a rating of 59.7 and a 19% career win rate — respectable credentials in a short-distance allowance sprint. Trainer Jason Pascoe is one of the most active stables on today's card, and D I Benitez gets the mount at 8/5 morning line, meaning the market is giving this one more credit than the ratings suggest. The disconnect between her lower rating and shorter odds makes her worth monitoring — she could easily outperform the show position.

Race 7

7:25 PM EDT

Allowance · 330 yd · Dirt

Bellatrics enters this 330-yard allowance with a career win rate that makes the rest of the field look like they're running for second — the real race is for the place and show spots.

win1BellatricsML 2/1

Bellatrics (1) is as compelling a top pick as you'll find on the card — a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 backed by a 66% career win rate that is simply elite for this level. When two-thirds of a horse's career starts have ended in victories, you're looking at a horse that knows what it's doing in the gate and beyond. Trainer Bob Broadstock sends her out at 2/1 morning line with Ramiro Sanchez Castillo up, a strong rider who's had a busy and productive card today. If there's a single-race best bet on this card, Bellatrics makes a strong argument.

place3Mi Reina JanetteML 5/2

Mi Reina Janette (3) has the second-best rating in the field at 70.94 and gives trainer Jennelle McMahon a solid representative at 5/2 on the morning line. A 9% career win rate is modest, but in an allowance field where Bellatrics is expected to dominate, the place position is realistically open for a horse with consistent form and a capable jockey in Ismael Eluid Mosqueira. She's worth including in exactas underneath the heavy favorite.

show5Shake Em AliceML 9/2

Shake Em Alice (5) is a value angle for exotic players — a 57.57 rating and an 18% career win rate that actually ranks well among the mid-tier runners in this field. What stands out is the 9/2 morning line, which gives you a bit of overlay on a horse that could easily sneak into the show spot if the race sets up right. Trainer Joe Tavares doubles up in this race, and the fact that Shake Em Alice gets Brian Bell in the irons suggests the barn isn't dismissing her chances.

Race 8

7:50 PM EDT

Speed Index Race · 220 yd · Dirt

The Speed Index event at 220 yards delivers a genuine morning-line upset scenario — the highest-rated horse is NOT the favorite, setting up a possible overlay play for sharp bettors.

win4Lil PhylerML 3/1

Lil Phyler (4) is our top choice at 3/1, carrying the field's best TrackWiz rating at 87.08 — and critically, she's NOT the morning-line favorite despite that rating edge. That's the kind of gap that TrackWiz analysis is designed to catch. Trainer Jason Pascoe is one of the busiest stables at Ajax Downs today and has shown a strong sense for placing horses correctly. J.B. Botello gets the mount, and at 3/1, if you think the ratings model holds, you're getting paid a premium for the best horse in the race.

place5Magic in WonderlandML 8/5

Magic in Wonderland (5) comes in as the 8/5 morning-line favorite with a rating of 78.84 and a 17% career win rate — she's the horse the public trusts, and she's not without merit. Trainer Richard W. Kennedy and jockey Ismael Eluid Mosqueira form a professional pairing, and at 220 yards any horse can snatch a win on a great break. She belongs in your exactas, just not necessarily on top if you trust the numbers over the morning line.

show1Turnpike TrippingML 2/1

Turnpike Tripping (1) holds a rating of 62.83 and a 9% career win rate, which might not inspire confidence on its own, but the 2/1 morning line suggests the public sees more here than the raw rating. Trainer Brooke Sisson sends her out with Cristian Benitez, an active jockey today who knows the circuit well. As a show backup in trifectas, she offers a credible price point and sits third in the natural pecking order based on the field's overall form.

Race 9

8:15 PM EDT

Speed Index Race · 330 yd · Dirt

The final race of the night is the most competitive on paper — three horses rated in the 80s, all with legitimate win credentials, making this a genuine photo-finish situation at 330 yards.

win4My Royal SwingerML 3/1

My Royal Swinger (4) edges out Copilot for the top pick based on a 86.68 rating combined with a 50% career win rate — a horse that wins half its races is not something you take lightly in any format. Trainer Joe Tavares, who has had horses throughout today's card, gives Corry Beland the mount at 3/1 morning line. In a race this tight at the top, the win percentage tiebreaker matters, and My Royal Swinger's consistency gives her the edge in TrackWiz analysis.

place1CopilotML 7/2

Copilot (1) is essentially a co-top choice with a rating of 86.35 and a career win rate of 55% — actually the highest win percentage of any horse in this race. Trainer Scott Reid and jockey Helen Marie Vanek bring a disciplined approach to the gate, and at 7/2 on the morning line, the market is giving you a slight overlay on a horse with elite win credentials. If this race goes by a nose, don't be surprised to see Copilot's nose in front.

show5Ivory QueenML 5/1

Ivory Queen (5) rounds out the show position with a rating of 80.52 and a career win rate of 23% — third-best in the field and clearly a tier above the bottom runners. Trainer Jason Pascoe caps a busy day with this entry, and Cristian Benitez has the experience to keep a quality horse competitive in a tight 330-yard sprint. At 5/1 morning line, she represents the best price of the top three and is the right play for show tickets and trifecta use.

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Bottom line: Ajax Downs is serving up a fast, fun nine-race card today, and Oscar the Grouch is the name to know coming in. The cloudy, mild conditions should keep the surface honest and speed figures reliable throughout. Free picks cover Races 1–3 — for the full-card breakdown including pace projections, exotic tickets, and every premium contender from Race 4 through Race 9, subscribers have everything they need waiting inside TrackWiz. Good luck at the windows.

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