Ajax Downs Picks & Predictions — September 23, 2026

Turnpike Tripping is the place value play of this race — rated 79.79 and going off at 8/1 on the morning line, there's a significant gap between what the odds imply and what our model says. Trainer Brooke Sisson puts Alexis Sanchez up, giving this horse one of the sharper jockeys on the card. At those odds in a five-horse place pool with a legitimate rating, Turnpike Tripping could be the best number on the board for exacta players.

Rushn in the Rain grades at 75.27 — fourth-best in this eight-horse field — and trainer Amber Archibald sends out Brian Bell at a workable 4/1 morning line. A 12% career win rate shows durability, and in a spread-out Speed Index field, solid middle-rated horses often find their way into the trifecta when the top choices battle each other. Worth including in tri coverage underneath the top two.

Corona for Aunt Dd rates 79.61 — second in the field — and is installed as the morning-line favorite at 8/5, which actually prices her below her program number suggests she should be. Trainer Joe Tavares fields a horse with a 14% career win rate, and Brian Bell in the irons keeps the professional edge. If Runawey Perry is caught at long odds on the board, Corona for Aunt Dd is the natural exacta partner and the horse the market wants to side with most.

Flyin Lady rates 73.90 — third-best in this compact five-horse field — and the 9/2 morning line may underestimate her chances given how close the ratings cluster behind the top two. Scott Reid sends her out with Helen Marie Vanek, a jockey appearing multiple times on today's card. A 10% career win rate in Speed Index company shows she belongs, and she's worth a spot in trifecta tickets beneath the top two choices.

Snow Moose rates 84.21 and carries a 36% career win rate — the highest in this field by a significant margin. That win rate in allowance company is a genuine standout number, and trainer Jason Pascoe sends her out as the morning-line chalk at 8/5. She's the most accomplished horse in the field historically, and if Nadir doesn't fire perfectly out of the gate at 110 yards, Snow Moose has the experience to capitalize.

Ivy League Sugarbaby rates 75.18 — third in the field — and pairs a 23% career win rate with the 5/2 morning line, making her a legitimate contender rather than a longshot hedge. Trainer Joe Tavares has the one-two punch of Nadir and Ivy League Sugarbaby in this race, a sign of barn confidence in both horses. At a fair price, she's a natural trifecta anchor and a useful show play in her own right.

Royal Zanbo is our longshot value play for the place — rated 61.85 and going off at 15/1, the odds are way out of line with what the model sees. No career wins on record, but in a Speed Index setting where our rating reflects recent performance patterns, that 61.85 isn't a throwaway number. Trainer Brooke Sisson also has My Royal Prize in the race, and Cristian Benitez is an experienced pilot — at 15/1, even a place finish would be a significant overlay for exotic players.

Politics N Lights rates 59.66 — third in this six-horse field — and at 3/1 gives conservative bettors a safe landing spot in the show pool. The 5% career win rate is low, but trainer Bob Broadstock and jockey Alexis Sanchez represent a sharp combination for a horse operating in a short-distance sprint format. Including Politics N Lights in trifecta coverage underneath Gin Xpress makes sense given the mid-range rating clustering in this field.

Eye Spy My rates 81.13 — second-best in the field — and brings a 23% career win rate that's among the highest in this six-horse field. The 3/1 morning line is fair for a horse this well-regarded by our model, and trainer Richard W. Kennedy has Alexis Sanchez aboard, one of the busiest jockeys on the Ajax card today. In a tight 110-yard dash, a horse with experience converting is exactly who you want underneath your top pick.

Kissin Ella rates 73.92 and posts a 12% career win rate, sitting third in the ratings while offered at 5/2 on the morning line. Trainer Jason Pascoe sends J.B. Botello up — Botello has appeared throughout this card — and the combination is professional enough to be competitive. In a six-horse allowance at the shortest distance on the program, Kissin Ella makes sense as a trifecta closer and show wager.

Pretty Runaway rates 72.81 and brings a 26% career win rate — the second-highest in the field and a genuine sign of a horse that competes consistently. The 5/2 morning line is competitive pricing for an experienced runner, and trainer James Bogar gives Ismael Eluid Mosqueira a solid mount for the longer sprint. In a five-horse field at 350 yards where pace can stretch things out, Pretty Runaway's win rate suggests she'll be running at the end.

Runaway Fate sits fifth in the ratings at 56.30 but carries a 15% career win rate and draws the 3/1 morning line — making her an affordable spot in trifecta construction. Trainer Jason Pascoe has been busy throughout today's card and fields another competitive entry here with Cristian Benitez in the irons. At the longest distance of the day, horses with experience and a professional connections package can surprise, and Runaway Fate fits that profile.

Open a New Corona rates 81.25 — virtually identical to the top-rated horse — and goes off at 7/1, which is a significant overlay for a horse this close in our model assessment. The 33% career win rate is exceptional in its own right, and trainer Joe Tavares has had horses in action throughout the card today. If the 7/1 holds into post time, Open a New Corona may be the best value play on the entire card — a top-two rated horse at big-board odds.

Relentless Betty rates 74.23 — third-best among seven horses — and a 36% career win rate puts her in rarefied company in terms of historical conversion. The 4/1 morning line is fair pricing, and trainer James Bogar fields both Relentless Betty and Fishin for Coronas, showing real barn confidence in this race. With two top-tier horses in the barn running, Relentless Betty becomes a natural trifecta piece and a credible show play.