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Ajax Downs Picks & Predictions — September 23, 2026
It's a clean, cool Tuesday at Ajax Downs — 63°F under clear skies, which is about as good as it gets for quarter horse racing in late September. The track should be playing fast and consistent all day, and that's good news if you like short-field speed duels on dirt.
Nine races are on the card today, stretching from a lightning-quick 110-yard dash in Race 5 all the way out to a 350-yard allowance closer in Race 8. You've got Maiden action, Allowance spots, and Speed Index Races sprinkled throughout — so there's something to work with no matter what your betting style looks like.
TrackWiz analysis has combed through the full card and found some intriguing angles, including a couple of morning-line favorites we're happy to side with and at least one spot where the chalk looks beatable. Let's get into it.
Best Bets
Race 1
Maiden · 330 yd · Dirt
A maiden sprint over 330 yards with zero career starts logged across the field — pure projection territory where TrackWiz ratings become the most reliable compass.
Louie B Gone draws the morning-line favoritism at 8/5 and backs it up with the field's top TrackWiz rating of 89.12 — a meaningful 11-point edge over the next-best horse. In a maiden field where no horse has a career record to lean on, that gap in our model's assessment carries real weight. Trainer Bob Broadstock also saddles Jedi Master in this race, showing barn confidence in the distance and surface. With Ramiro Sanchez Castillo in the irons, this is a professional, well-connected connections package riding a top-rated horse.
Stonecutter Form grades out at 78.12 on the TrackWiz scale — second-best in the field and a solid 10-point jump over the third horse. Jockey Max Badal has the rail post to work with, which in a short 330-yard dash can be a tactical advantage. In maiden races built on projection, that rating cushion and the favorable draw make Stonecutter Form a logical place backup.
Chiseled Fate sits at 58.33 in the ratings — third in this maiden lineup — and carries the second-lowest morning line at 2/1, suggesting the market respects the horse's chances despite a middling model score. Trainer Richard W. Kennedy puts Alexis Sanchez up, a rider who appears multiple times on today's card and figures to be sharp. At those odds, Chiseled Fate is worth including in exacta and trifecta coverage as a third option.
Race 2
Allowance · 250 yd · Dirt
An allowance sprint at 250 yards where the top three horses in the ratings are separated by less than eight points — tight enough that the pace break out of the gate could be the deciding factor.
Stolin Secrets posts the field's ceiling rating of 89.12 and draws the morning-line chalk at 8/5, so the market and our model are aligned here. The career win rate of 6% looks modest in isolation, but in allowance company at a short sprint distance, consistency of effort often matters more than raw win percentage. Jockey Cassandra Jeschke gets the call for trainer Chantelle Bourgeois, and with the top number in the field, this is a structured top pick with legitimate credentials.
Haaave You Met Karma rates 82.93 — second in the field — and is trained by Scott Reid, who also has Agent Ice in the race, giving the barn a live double-barrel threat. The 5/2 morning line represents fair value for a horse sitting this close to the top number, and an 11% career win rate in allowance company shows she belongs at this level. If Stolin Secrets is challenged early in the 250-yard dash, Karma's rating suggests she has the ability to fill the exacta.
Agent Ice rates 81.70 — third in the field and separated from Haaave You Met Karma by just over a point — making this a genuine three-horse battle at the top. The 2/1 morning line actually makes Agent Ice the second betting choice despite being our third pick, which speaks to market confidence. Trainer Jason Pascoe has a capable barn and Cristian Benitez, one of the busier riders on the card today, provides an experienced presence in the saddle.
Race 3
Speed Index Race · 300 yd · Dirt
The Speed Index Race at 300 yards features a standout top-rated horse trying to justify short odds against a wide-open supporting cast — including a 10/1 shot with the field's best career win percentage.
Leaninto This Moment is the clear class of this field on paper, posting an 84.28 TrackWiz rating while going off at 3/2 on the morning line. The 11% career win rate is respectable in Speed Index company, and trainer James Bogar sends out Ismael Eluid Mosqueira — a jockey also aboard Race 9 today, signaling Bogar's confidence in his rider's feel for the distance. In a Speed Index race, where horses are grouped by measured performance, winning by the biggest model margin in the field is about as strong a case as you can make.
Turnpike Tripping is the place value play of this race — rated 79.79 and going off at 8/1 on the morning line, there's a significant gap between what the odds imply and what our model says. Trainer Brooke Sisson puts Alexis Sanchez up, giving this horse one of the sharper jockeys on the card. At those odds in a five-horse place pool with a legitimate rating, Turnpike Tripping could be the best number on the board for exacta players.
Rushn in the Rain grades at 75.27 — fourth-best in this eight-horse field — and trainer Amber Archibald sends out Brian Bell at a workable 4/1 morning line. A 12% career win rate shows durability, and in a spread-out Speed Index field, solid middle-rated horses often find their way into the trifecta when the top choices battle each other. Worth including in tri coverage underneath the top two.
The first three races give us a nice warm-up sampler for the day. We open with a Maiden sprint at 330 yards where Louie B Gone (8/5 ML) earns our top rating at 89.12 — that's a strong number for a first-level race and suggests this horse has a real edge on the field. Race 2 shifts to a shorter 250-yard Allowance, and Stolin Secrets (8/5 ML) matches that same 89.12 rating, making for a compelling look at a horse expected to produce early in what should be a clean gate-to-wire scenario. Race 3 is a 300-yard Speed Index Race — a format where horses are essentially competing against a time standard as much as each other — and Leaninto This Moment (3/2 ML, 84.28 rating) is our lean, though the shorter morning line signals the crowd will likely agree.
On a fast, dry Ajax strip, all three of these free-card picks profile as horses that want to be on or near the engine from the break. In quarter horse racing, where races are over in literal seconds, getting out of the gate cleanly is half the battle — and our analysis suggests all three top picks have the gate speed to make that happen today.
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Clear skies, a fast Ajax Downs strip, and nine quick-fire dirt sprints — today's card is a good one. Louie B Gone, Stolin Secrets, and Leaninto This Moment headline our free picks, while the premium half of the card offers some genuinely compelling angles around pace mismatches and exotic wager construction. As always, bet within your means and remember — even the best figures don't guarantee outcomes in races decided by fractions of a second. Good luck out there.