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Ajax Downs Picks & Predictions — September 16, 2026

September 16, 20267 racesAll Ajax Downs picks

Best bets at Ajax Downs, September 16, 2026

Race 11Jumpin Dashin WillieML 2/112:55 PM EDT

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It's a clean, comfortable Wednesday at Ajax Downs — partly cloudy skies and 76°F mean the dirt should be playing true all afternoon. No weather excuses today. If your horse gets beat, it got beat on merit.

Seven races are on the board, mixing maidens, Speed Index races, and a pair of allowance sprints that give the card some real bite. Distances range from a blink-and-you'll-miss-it 110 yards all the way out to 350, so pace scenarios shift dramatically from race to race — the kind of card where knowing which horses fire early versus which ones need even a split second to find their stride can make a real difference in the exotics.

TrackWiz has full ratings on all seven races, and today's card has a handful of morning-line overlays worth targeting. Let's dig in.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:55 PM EDT

Maiden · 300 yd · Dirt

A wide-open maiden sprint at 300 yards where every horse is breaking in — no career win percentages to lean on — making TrackWiz ratings the primary separator in what shapes up as a tough opener to read.

win1Jumpin Dashin WillieML 2/1

Jumpin Dashin Willie draws the rail and carries an 88.54 TrackWiz rating that towers over the rest of this field — the next closest is Goodlookingperry at 64.09, a gap of nearly 25 points. Trainer Chantelle Bourgeois and jockey Cassandra Jeschke get the call, and that connections pairing tops the program. In a maiden field with zero career data to go on, that rating edge is about as clear a signal as you're going to get, and the morning line of 2/1 reflects the market's agreement.

place3GoodlookingperryML 5/2

Goodlookingperry sits second in the TrackWiz ratings at 64.09 and lands at 5/2 on the morning line — a fair price for a horse that projects as the second-best athlete in the field. Brian Bell gets the mount for trainer Joe Tavares, and this one looks like a solid exotics anchor given the chaos that can unfold in debut maiden sprints at 300 yards.

show4Politically IntoitML 8/5

Politically Intoit is the morning-line favorite at 8/5, which makes the show price a bit of a hedge play here — the market likes this horse to do something, even if our rating of 59.00 slots it third behind the top two. Jockey Ismael Eluid Mosqueira brings experience to the irons, and in a field where any first-timer can break poorly, having exposure to this one in the show slot of your exotics makes sense as a safety net.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:22 PM EDT

Speed Index Race · 350 yd · Dirt

Srt the Final Cut looks like a class apart in this 350-yard Speed Index Race, packing a 66% career win rate that dwarfs the rest of the field and setting up a scenario where the only real question is who runs second.

win2Srt the Final CutML 8/5

Srt the Final Cut is simply in a different league here — a 66% career win percentage is extraordinary, and the TrackWiz rating of 89.12 backs that up as the top mark in the field. Trainer James Bogar sends this one out with Ismael Eluid Mosqueira in the irons, a pairing that should handle the 350-yard distance with confidence. The morning line of 8/5 is short, but when the form is this dominant, you're not betting against the number — you're betting on a near-certainty.

place3Sixes Royal MaidenML 9/2

Sixes Royal Maiden at 9/2 is the best value in the exotic slots — a TrackWiz rating of 62.84 and a 10% career win rate give this one a legitimate profile for a place finish in a race where the win looks locked up. Trainer Jason Pascoe with J.B. Botello up is a solid pairing, and at nearly 5-to-1, there's real overlay potential here if you're building a win/place or exacta structure.

show1Magic GuitarML 3/1

Magic Guitar comes in with a modest 6% career win percentage but earns a 61.94 TrackWiz rating — good enough for third-best in this field. Cassandra Jeschke and trainer Chantelle Bourgeois team up again at 3/1 on the morning line, and while this horse isn't beating the top two, sneaking into third in a race where the pace scenario is relatively predictable is a realistic outcome worth covering in your trifecta tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

The first three races are on the house. In the opener, maiden sprinter Jumpin Dashin Willie draws our top rating at 88.54 and heads off at a reasonable 2/1 morning line — a solid anchor for anyone building early multi-race tickets. Race 2 shifts to 350 yards with Srt the Final Cut sitting as our top-rated horse at 89.12 and the 8/5 favorite on the line. That's the highest TrackWiz rating among the three free races, and at a distance that rewards horses who can sustain their burst, we like the profile. Race 3 brings Favorite Interest into a 330-yard Speed Index sprint at 2/1 — same raw rating as the opener, but a more seasoned class of rivals to measure against.

Speed Index races reward pure acceleration, and on a day with firm, predictable footing, horses with clean gate records tend to shine. Watch for any early bias — if the first couple of races tilt toward speed, lean into it through the afternoon.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:49 PM EDT

Speed Index Race · 330 yd · Dirt

Favorite Interest enters as the clear TrackWiz top-rated horse in this 330-yard Speed Index Race, but the clustering of ratings and win percentages in the middle of the pack means the exacta and trifecta payouts could have real teeth.

win4Favorite InterestML 2/1

Favorite Interest carries an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — highest in this field — and backs it up with a 26% career win percentage that stands out in a competitive Speed Index group. Trainer Jason Pascoe puts J.B. Botello up, and this connections combo has the tools to take advantage of a favorable post at 4. At 2/1 on the morning line, the price is fair for the top-rated horse who also brings the best win percentage to the gate.

place2Ms Fixin to WinML 9/2

Ms Fixin to Win is an interesting angle at 9/2 — a TrackWiz rating of 68.38 actually tops Leanintoimperialhint despite the latter drawing shorter odds, and the 11% career win rate is respectable. Trainer Bob Broadstock sends Ramiro Sanchez Castillo out, and if the pace up front gets contentious, this one's running style could let her pick up the pieces for a place check at a generous price.

show1LeanintoimperialhintML 8/5

Leanintoimperialhint draws the rail at 8/5 and owns a 20% career win percentage — solid credentials — though a TrackWiz rating of 67.24 slots this one just below the top two in our analysis. Trainer James Bogar and jockey Ismael Eluid Mosqueira keep showing up in the mix today, and the inside post could prove advantageous over 330 yards where there's little room to recover from a bad break. A logical show inclusion in trifecta plays.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 4

2:16 PM EDT

Speed Index Race · 220 yd · Dirt

This 220-yard dash is one of the most talent-packed races on the card — three horses rated above 73 by TrackWiz, and a 55% career winner at the top of the pile — making it a premium exacta and trifecta race for subscribers.

win3My Royal SwingerML 2/1

My Royal Swinger is the standout of the afternoon with a 55% career win percentage — more than double most competitors in this field — paired with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating that leads the race. Trainer Joe Tavares, who has multiple runners on today's card, saddles this one with Corry Beland up at 2/1 on the morning line. Over a short 220-yard sprint, a horse that wins more than half its races is a wagon — this is a confident best bet.

place5Ivory QueenML 3/1

Ivory Queen at 3/1 is a legitimate threat with a 78.54 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field — and a 25% career win percentage that projects a horse capable of firing on any given day. Trainer Jason Pascoe taps J.B. Botello, and this combination has produced results throughout the card. If My Royal Swinger stumbles out of the gate, Ivory Queen has the talent to capitalize, making her the natural place pick in exacta constructions.

show4PerryokieML 5/2

Perryokie draws post 4 and brings a 74.14 TrackWiz rating and a 17% career win percentage — not flashy numbers, but this is a horse that belongs in the mix over 220 yards. Ramiro Sanchez Castillo has the mount for trainer Bob Broadstock, and at 5/2 morning line there's enough market respect here to warrant trifecta coverage. The four-horse in a short sprint is a workable position, and the rating clustering in the middle of this field means a small upset isn't out of the question.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 5

2:43 PM EDT

Allowance · 110 yd · Dirt

Lights Dynasty enters this 110-yard Allowance sprint as a massive ratings outlier — an 86.35 against a field where the next best is 66.86 — but the 7/2 morning line offers genuine value for a horse this dominant on paper.

win6Lights DynastyML 7/2

Lights Dynasty owns an 86.35 TrackWiz rating that leaves the field in the dust, and a 44% career win percentage that is the best in the race by a wide margin. Trainer Joe Tavares hands the reins to Brian Bell, and over just 110 yards — essentially a pure reaction-time and acceleration sprint — a horse with that win rate and rating advantage is the play. The 7/2 morning line is frankly generous given the numbers, and this is our top value play on the card.

place1Chasing ButterfliesML 3/1

Chasing Butterflies brings a 66.86 TrackWiz rating and a 22% career win percentage — a solid profile that projects as the second-best horse in this field on our numbers. Trainer Richard W. Kennedy puts Alexis Sanchez up at 3/1, and while the win is a stretch against Lights Dynasty, second money in a 110-yard sprint where pace is everything is a realistic outcome. A good exacta anchor underneath the top pick.

show2All Outta SugarML 5/1

All Outta Sugar owns a 26% career win percentage — actually the best win rate in the field aside from Lights Dynasty — but a TrackWiz rating of 50.80 suggests some inconsistency. At 5/1 on the morning line, trainer Bob Broadstock and jockey Ramiro Sanchez Castillo are sending out a horse that has found the winner's circle at a high clip, even if the raw rating trails the top picks. For trifecta players looking for a live price in the third slot, this one is worth a look.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 6

3:10 PM EDT

Allowance · 330 yd · Dirt

Had to Be Relentless looks like the class of this 330-yard Allowance field, but Snow Moose's 34% career win rate makes the exacta a compelling structure — this race has real depth in the top half of the field.

win3Had to Be RelentlessML 8/5

Had to Be Relentless tops the TrackWiz ratings at 89.12 and brings a 26% career win percentage to the gate — a combination that makes this horse the standout in an Allowance field that carries some real talent. Trainer Bryn Robertson and jockey Ismael Eluid Mosqueira team up at 8/5, and while the price is short, the margin between this horse and the next-rated Snow Moose (80.64) supports the confidence. In Allowance company at 330 yards, a horse this well-rated shouldn't be faded just because the odds are tight.

place2Snow MooseML 5/2

Snow Moose is a horse we genuinely like in this spot — a 34% career win percentage is exceptional and the 80.64 TrackWiz rating is well within striking distance of the top pick. Trainer Jason Pascoe sends J.B. Botello up at 5/2, and this connections duo has shown up all day. If anything goes sideways for the favorite, Snow Moose has the raw talent to steal this race outright — and at 5/2, the place price should be reasonable value.

show1Cg Mega SpyML 2/1

Cg Mega Spy is the morning-line favorite at 2/1, which creates an interesting dynamic — our ratings have this horse third at 65.84, but the market loves it. Trainer Scott Reid and jockey Cassandra Jeschke make for an interesting combo, and the 16% career win rate is workable. For trifecta players, using Cg Mega Spy in the third slot makes sense given the market support, even if our TrackWiz analysis sees better value higher in the order.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 7

3:37 PM EDT

Speed Index Race · 250 yd · Dirt

Aspen T at 9/2 is our top-rated horse in a seven-horse 250-yard Speed Index Race where the morning-line favorite (Magic in Wonderland at 3/1) is rated nearly eight points lower — there's a genuine disconnect between the market and our numbers here.

win7Aspen TML 9/2

Aspen T carries an 84.90 TrackWiz rating — best in this seven-horse field — and posts an 11% career win percentage in what appears to be tougher spots than today. The key angle here is value: at 9/2, the market is underestimating this horse, likely because trainer Joe Tavares is running a full barn today and attention may be divided. Jockey Jose Nabor Cruz gets the mount, and over 250 yards, a horse this well-rated from a connections standpoint that's being dismissed by the morning line is exactly the kind of overlay that pays dividends.

place3Magic in WonderlandML 3/1

Magic in Wonderland is the morning-line favorite at 3/1 and holds a 77.44 TrackWiz rating with an 18% career win percentage — respectable numbers that justify market respect. Trainer Richard W. Kennedy and Alexis Sanchez are a functional pairing, and while our ratings prefer Aspen T, this horse is clearly dangerous and a logical exacta partner. At 3/1, the place price should be manageable and makes for a clean win/place or exacta structure with the top pick.

show4Double Dashin CoronaML 4/1

Double Dashin Corona comes in at 4/1 with a 72.77 TrackWiz rating and an 18% career win percentage that mirrors the place pick — making for a tight race between these two for the minor awards. Trainer Bob Broadstock sends Ramiro Sanchez Castillo out from post 4, and in a seven-horse 250-yard sprint, clean air from a middle post can be a real advantage. Trifecta players should give this one serious consideration as the third slot, especially at a price that could inflate the payout nicely.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

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Bottom line: Srt the Final Cut is the top-rated free pick on the card, Had to Be Relentless is the name to know in the premium races, and the comfortable conditions give us no reason to second-guess the figures today. Three strong free races to get you started — and if you want the rest of the card with full exotic breakdowns, subscriber analysis is waiting at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck out there.

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