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Ajax Downs Picks & Predictions — September 16, 2026
It's a clean, comfortable Wednesday at Ajax Downs — partly cloudy skies and 76°F mean the dirt should be playing true all afternoon. No weather excuses today. If your horse gets beat, it got beat on merit.
Seven races are on the board, mixing maidens, Speed Index races, and a pair of allowance sprints that give the card some real bite. Distances range from a blink-and-you'll-miss-it 110 yards all the way out to 350, so pace scenarios shift dramatically from race to race — the kind of card where knowing which horses fire early versus which ones need even a split second to find their stride can make a real difference in the exotics.
TrackWiz has full ratings on all seven races, and today's card has a handful of morning-line overlays worth targeting. Let's dig in.
Best Bets
Race 1
Maiden · 300 yd · Dirt
A wide-open maiden sprint at 300 yards where every horse is breaking in — no career win percentages to lean on — making TrackWiz ratings the primary separator in what shapes up as a tough opener to read.
Jumpin Dashin Willie draws the rail and carries an 88.54 TrackWiz rating that towers over the rest of this field — the next closest is Goodlookingperry at 64.09, a gap of nearly 25 points. Trainer Chantelle Bourgeois and jockey Cassandra Jeschke get the call, and that connections pairing tops the program. In a maiden field with zero career data to go on, that rating edge is about as clear a signal as you're going to get, and the morning line of 2/1 reflects the market's agreement.
Goodlookingperry sits second in the TrackWiz ratings at 64.09 and lands at 5/2 on the morning line — a fair price for a horse that projects as the second-best athlete in the field. Brian Bell gets the mount for trainer Joe Tavares, and this one looks like a solid exotics anchor given the chaos that can unfold in debut maiden sprints at 300 yards.
Politically Intoit is the morning-line favorite at 8/5, which makes the show price a bit of a hedge play here — the market likes this horse to do something, even if our rating of 59.00 slots it third behind the top two. Jockey Ismael Eluid Mosqueira brings experience to the irons, and in a field where any first-timer can break poorly, having exposure to this one in the show slot of your exotics makes sense as a safety net.
Race 2
Speed Index Race · 350 yd · Dirt
Srt the Final Cut looks like a class apart in this 350-yard Speed Index Race, packing a 66% career win rate that dwarfs the rest of the field and setting up a scenario where the only real question is who runs second.
Srt the Final Cut is simply in a different league here — a 66% career win percentage is extraordinary, and the TrackWiz rating of 89.12 backs that up as the top mark in the field. Trainer James Bogar sends this one out with Ismael Eluid Mosqueira in the irons, a pairing that should handle the 350-yard distance with confidence. The morning line of 8/5 is short, but when the form is this dominant, you're not betting against the number — you're betting on a near-certainty.
Sixes Royal Maiden at 9/2 is the best value in the exotic slots — a TrackWiz rating of 62.84 and a 10% career win rate give this one a legitimate profile for a place finish in a race where the win looks locked up. Trainer Jason Pascoe with J.B. Botello up is a solid pairing, and at nearly 5-to-1, there's real overlay potential here if you're building a win/place or exacta structure.
Magic Guitar comes in with a modest 6% career win percentage but earns a 61.94 TrackWiz rating — good enough for third-best in this field. Cassandra Jeschke and trainer Chantelle Bourgeois team up again at 3/1 on the morning line, and while this horse isn't beating the top two, sneaking into third in a race where the pace scenario is relatively predictable is a realistic outcome worth covering in your trifecta tickets.
Race 3
Speed Index Race · 330 yd · Dirt
Favorite Interest enters as the clear TrackWiz top-rated horse in this 330-yard Speed Index Race, but the clustering of ratings and win percentages in the middle of the pack means the exacta and trifecta payouts could have real teeth.
Favorite Interest carries an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — highest in this field — and backs it up with a 26% career win percentage that stands out in a competitive Speed Index group. Trainer Jason Pascoe puts J.B. Botello up, and this connections combo has the tools to take advantage of a favorable post at 4. At 2/1 on the morning line, the price is fair for the top-rated horse who also brings the best win percentage to the gate.
Ms Fixin to Win is an interesting angle at 9/2 — a TrackWiz rating of 68.38 actually tops Leanintoimperialhint despite the latter drawing shorter odds, and the 11% career win rate is respectable. Trainer Bob Broadstock sends Ramiro Sanchez Castillo out, and if the pace up front gets contentious, this one's running style could let her pick up the pieces for a place check at a generous price.
Leanintoimperialhint draws the rail at 8/5 and owns a 20% career win percentage — solid credentials — though a TrackWiz rating of 67.24 slots this one just below the top two in our analysis. Trainer James Bogar and jockey Ismael Eluid Mosqueira keep showing up in the mix today, and the inside post could prove advantageous over 330 yards where there's little room to recover from a bad break. A logical show inclusion in trifecta plays.
The first three races are on the house. In the opener, maiden sprinter Jumpin Dashin Willie draws our top rating at 88.54 and heads off at a reasonable 2/1 morning line — a solid anchor for anyone building early multi-race tickets. Race 2 shifts to 350 yards with Srt the Final Cut sitting as our top-rated horse at 89.12 and the 8/5 favorite on the line. That's the highest TrackWiz rating among the three free races, and at a distance that rewards horses who can sustain their burst, we like the profile. Race 3 brings Favorite Interest into a 330-yard Speed Index sprint at 2/1 — same raw rating as the opener, but a more seasoned class of rivals to measure against.
Speed Index races reward pure acceleration, and on a day with firm, predictable footing, horses with clean gate records tend to shine. Watch for any early bias — if the first couple of races tilt toward speed, lean into it through the afternoon.
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Bottom line: Srt the Final Cut is the top-rated free pick on the card, Had to Be Relentless is the name to know in the premium races, and the comfortable conditions give us no reason to second-guess the figures today. Three strong free races to get you started — and if you want the rest of the card with full exotic breakdowns, subscriber analysis is waiting at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck out there.