Ajax Downs Picks & Predictions — September 9, 2026

Baby On Fire brings a 33% career win rate into this race — the best win percentage in the field — and trainer James Bogar is no stranger to the winner's circle at Ajax. A rating of 68.2 puts her solidly in the mix, and at 3/1, she profiles as a horse who knows how to win even if our model slots her just behind Sixes Royal Maiden. Don't sleep on this one for exactas.

Royal Zanbo opens at 9/2 for trainer Brooke Sisson with Ramiro Sanchez Castillo up, and a rating of 61.73 makes her a reasonable exotics piece in a race where the top two are closely bunched. In a seven-horse sprint, fractions get tight at the break and a horse with clean trip luck can easily sneak into the trifecta — Royal Zanbo is that type of speculative third.

Haaave You Met Karma rates 81.76 — the second-best mark in the field — and trainer Scott Reid sends Helen Marie Vanek out at 5/2. A 12% career win rate undersells what the TrackWiz figure suggests is a horse capable of running big on any given day. In an allowance where two rivals are coming in with inflated win percentages from smaller sample sizes, this mare's rating makes her a strong exotics anchor.

Bellatrics is interesting here — a 50% career win rate is eye-catching and trainer Bob Broadstock has Ramiro Sanchez Castillo up at 2/1 on the morning line. Our rating (58.33) is more conservative than the odds suggest, which is why we slot her third rather than top billing, but in a short field of five runners, a horse with that kind of closing rate deserves respect underneath in the trifecta.

Caraways Angels Air at 2/1 brings a rating of 82.21 and a 17% career win rate for trainer Wayne Procter, who already has multiple runners on today's card. Cristian Benitez gets aboard, and the combination of a strong barn, a live jockey, and the second-best rating in the race makes this a natural exacta pairing with Queen Charlotte at manageable odds.

Oppy opens at 5/2 for trainer Ruth Barbour with Brian Bell up, and a rating of 76.3 puts her third on our scale in a race where three horses are bunched between 73 and 82. An 8% career win rate is modest, but in a five-horse allowance sprint, trip luck matters enormously — if Oppy finds clear running from the break, she has the ability to hit the board.

Cold Hard Chief is impossible to ignore — a 100% career win rate is a rare stat, and trainer Jason Pascoe puts Cristian Benitez up at 7/2. Yes, the sample size is almost certainly small, and that's why we slot him second rather than top pick, but a horse that has never lost a race deserves respect in any format. The rating (55.83) is well below Stolen Ivory, but in the trifecta, Cold Hard Chief is a must-use.

My Gypsy Girl at 6/1 rates at 51.67 — the third-best figure in the field — and trainer James Bogar has a second runner in Caviar Dreamz, meaning the barn is active and engaged in this race. Cassandra Jeschke takes the mount, and in a deep nine-horse Futurity, finding the third-best rating at 6/1 is exactly the kind of value that makes trifectas worth playing.

Eye Spy My at 3/2 is essentially co-top-rated at 88.53 — just a hair behind Shake Em Alice — with Alexis Sanchez riding for trainer Richard W. Kennedy. A 25% career win rate is notably strong, and this horse is short enough on the morning line that place odds won't be exciting. Still, in an eight-horse field where these two are clearly a cut above, keying them together in the exacta both ways is the smart ticket.

Rushn in the Rain checks in at 82.2 on the TrackWiz scale — clearly third-best in a deep field — and trainer Amber Archibald sends Helen Marie Vanek out at 4/1. A 13% career win rate is respectable, and at a price that's slightly longer than the top two, this mare is an excellent trifecta anchor. If either of the top-rated duo gets shuffled in traffic, Rushn in the Rain has the ability to make noise.

Hesmagicalydelicious is the real standout value angle in this race — a 26% career win rate, a rating of 83, and a morning line of 5/1 makes this horse look like an overlay in the place market. Trainer Bob Broadstock puts Alexis Sanchez up, and in a six-horse sprint, the third-highest win percentage in the field combined with a strong TrackWiz figure means this horse runs into the money more often than 5/1 implies.

Justt Jackson at 3/1 has the best career win rate in the field at 33% and a solid rating of 68.07 for trainer Chantelle Bourgeois. Cassandra Jeschke gets the mount, and while the rating gaps put her behind the top two, a horse that wins one in three starts has demonstrated the ability to close the deal. She's a logical trifecta piece at a price that makes the wager worth constructing.

Chillin With Peeps brings a 57% career win rate — the second-best in the field — and rates 79.51 for trainer Chantelle Bourgeois with Cassandra Jeschke up at 4/1. In a ten-horse Derby, having a horse that wins more than half its starts running into second or third is hardly a surprise outcome. The exacta combining Copilot on top of Chillin With Peeps is a natural play.

Open a New Corona at 6/1 rates 74.85 and owns a 37% career win rate — the third-best percentage in the field — giving trainer Joe Tavares a live shot with Brian Bell aboard. At 400 yards, the pace tends to spread the field more than the short sprints, and a horse with a 37% career win rate has clearly found the winner's circle under varying conditions. At 6/1, this is exactly the kind of show price that turns a modest trifecta ticket into a real payout.