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Ajax Downs Picks & Predictions — August 12, 2026

August 12, 20268 racesAll Ajax Downs picks

Ajax Downs rolls out an eight-race card on Wednesday, August 12, and the conditions couldn't be much better for quarter horse racing. It's 77°F and partly cloudy — no rain in the picture, no headwinds to speak of. Expect the dirt to play honest and the times to be quick.

Today's card is a classic Ajax mix: a pair of Allowance sprints bookending the card, five Speed Index races in between, a wide-open Maiden at 220 yards, and the highlight of the afternoon — a Maturity at 400 yards that brings out the best older runners on the grounds. There's something here for every kind of bettor.

TrackWiz has combed through the full field of eight races. Three are available free to all readers, with the remaining five unlocked for subscribers. Let's break down what's on the table today.

Best Bets

Race 1

7:30 PM EDT

Allowance · 660 yd · Dirt

Two horses are separated from the field by a significant rating gap in this 660-yard allowance opener, setting up a likely battle at the top with the rest scrambling for third.

win2Had to Be RelentlessML 3/1

Had to Be Relentless earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 87.08 — a clear edge over everyone except General Skywalker — and backs it up with a 25% career win rate that speaks to genuine consistency. Trainer Bryn Robertson puts up a horse with real credentials here, and at 3/1 on the morning line, the market hasn't fully caught up to the ratings edge. Jockey Ismael Eluid Mosqueira gets the call, and this looks like a prime setup over 660 yards of Ajax Downs dirt.

place4General SkywalkerML 2/1

General Skywalker (4) posts a 86.04 TrackWiz rating — nearly matching our top pick — and a 30% career win rate that actually leads all starters in this race. Trainer Bob Broadstock and Ramiro Sanchez Castillo team up here, and if Had to Be Relentless stumbles out of the gate, this one could easily flip the order at the wire. At 2/1, he's not a huge price, but the underlying numbers justify the confidence.

show1Tell Him No SecretsML 5/2

Tell Him No Secrets (1) sits third in our ratings at 68.65 and carries a 17% career win figure — respectable, especially considering the 660-yard format can compress the field in ways that help steady performers. Trainer Joe Tavares also saddles Suge in this same race, which often signals a stable that's comfortable sending a main runner and a backup, and Tell Him No Secrets is clearly the stable's better horse here. At 5/2, there's decent value for exotics players looking to round out a trifecta.

Race 2

7:55 PM EDT

Speed Index Race · 300 yd · Dirt

A Speed Index race at a sharp 300 yards where one horse's rating dominates and two mid-priced runners offer intriguing value for exotics at a fair clip.

win1Pretty RunawayML 5/1

Pretty Runaway (1) carries the field's top TrackWiz rating at 84.17 — more than 14 points clear of the next-best Ivory Queen — and matches a 25% career win rate that underscores she's a legitimate performer, not just a paper tiger. Trainer James Bogar sends her out with Ismael Eluid Mosqueira up, a pairing worth noting given Mosqueira is already aboard our top selection in Race 1. At 5/1 on the morning line, this is a genuine value play for a horse whose rating screams underlay — the public may sleep on her at that price.

place4Ivory QueenML 3/1

Ivory Queen (4) checks in second in our ratings at 69.61 and carries a solid 22% career win rate, which is the second-highest in the field. Trainer Jason Pascoe and jockey Jesus Ambrocio Medina combine for a competitive entry at 3/1 morning line, and in a 300-yard sprint where every break matters, Ivory Queen's experience gives her a place-or-better edge over the deeper part of the field.

show6Turnpike TrippingML 7/1

Turnpike Tripping (6) is a sneaky inclusion here at 7/1 with a 56.37 rating that ranks third in the field — ahead of Flyin Lady, Fate Zoomin, and My Royal Prize. Trainer Brooke Sisson has two runners in this race, and Turnpike Tripping outrates stablemate My Royal Prize considerably. A 14% career win rate isn't flashy, but in a 300-yard race where chaos can unfold quickly, she's a logical show horse for those building out tri tickets.

Race 3

8:20 PM EDT

Maiden · 220 yd · Dirt

Maiden runners at 220 yards means pure speed and raw ability — nobody has a win on the board, so TrackWiz ratings and trainer patterns become the best guide in a race that's genuinely hard to separate.

win1Politically IntoitML 2/1

Politically Intoit (1) tops the TrackWiz ratings in this maiden field at 58.33 and draws the services of Ismael Eluid Mosqueira, who is having an active night across the Ajax card. Trainer James Bogar is a familiar name today, and the 2/1 morning line puts Politically Intoit as the co-favorite — though our ratings suggest that price is fair, not generous. In a maiden race where form is thin, that ratings edge combined with an experienced jockey is enough to make this the top call.

place3Caraways Rushin RiskML 3/1

Caraways Rushin Risk (3) comes in a close second in ratings at 56.67, just 1.66 points off our top pick, making this essentially a coin flip on pure numbers. Trainer Wayne Procter also has Caraways Magic Rain in this race, and Rushin Risk is clearly the stable's preferred runner based on the ratings gap between the two. At 3/1 on the morning line, the place slot is a fair target for this one.

show4Royal ZanboML 8/5

Royal Zanbo (4) is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 despite ranking third in our ratings at 54.96, which signals the public expects more than our model does — that kind of disconnect is worth flagging. Trainer Brooke Sisson puts up a horse who could easily hit the board in a field where no one has ever won, and jockey Brian Bell gives the connections solid representation. Toss Royal Zanbo in your exotics for coverage, but don't let the morning-line chalk price fool you into overweighting this one.

The three free races give you a solid foundation for the day. Had to Be Relentless opens the card in a 660-yard Allowance — the longest race on today's program — with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and 3/1 morning line odds that suggest real value if the pace scenario sets up the way we project. In Race 2, Pretty Runaway draws our eye at 5/1 in a 300-yard Speed Index Race. That morning line makes this horse one of the more interesting overlays on the card if the crowd underestimates her recent form. Then in Race 3, the Maiden at 220 yards, Politically Intoit comes in as the 2/1 morning line choice — though maiden races are always the trickiest to project with any certainty, the TrackWiz model likes her underlying numbers.

One thread connecting all three free races: on a fast-playing dirt surface like we're expecting today, early speed is king at Ajax Downs. Horses that can break cleanly and establish position in the first strides of these short sprints have a structural edge. Keep that pace angle in mind as you build your tickets this afternoon.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

8:45 PM EDT

Speed Index Race · 220 yd · Dirt

This 220-yard Speed Index race is locked up by two horses who are a full tier above the rest — the battle for win is between the top two, and third is very much up for grabs.

win4BewitchinML 8/5

Bewitchin (4) leads all starters with a TrackWiz rating of 89.12, and she's the only horse in this field with a documented career win rate — 13% — which stands out significantly in a lineup that otherwise shows zeroes across the board. Trainer Dan Giles and jockey Helen Marie Vanek combine for a morning-line favorite at 8/5, and the numbers back that confidence fully. In a sprint as short as 220 yards, having the highest rating and a proven winner's profile is about as clean a case as you'll find.

place3Rushn ValentineML 2/1

Rushn Valentine (3) is just a hair behind at 87.04 — a two-point gap that's essentially razor-thin at this level — and trainer Paul Garrison sends out what looks like a lightly raced but talented runner at 2/1. The fact that this horse has no recorded career win rate suggests limited starts, which in a maiden-heavy Speed Index field can actually be a neutral-to-positive signal; the talent is there and the horse hasn't been beaten up by a long campaign. Expect Rushn Valentine to be right there at the wire.

show5Caraways Sugar JoeML 3/1

Caraways Sugar Joe (5) drops into third in our ratings at 60.68, a notable step down from the top two, but still outranks Baby On Fire and Jedi Master with room to spare. Trainer Wayne Procter has been active across the Ajax card tonight, and Tony Phillips takes the mount at 3/1. For exotics players, Caraways Sugar Joe is the logical anchor for the show slot when the top two are this dominant.

Race 5

9:10 PM EDT

Allowance · 350 yd · Dirt

Trainer Chantelle Bourgeois loads up with two of her best in this 350-yard allowance, and the numbers suggest her barn is going to run 1-2 — the only question is which one leads at the wire.

win2Stolin SecretsML 8/5

Stolin Secrets (2) shares the field's top TrackWiz rating at 89.12 — tied with Race 4's winner Bewitchin — and carries a 7% career win rate that, while modest, is in line with the other main contenders in this race. Cassandra Jeschke gets the mount for trainer Chantelle Bourgeois, and the 8/5 morning line reflects a strong market opinion this is the barn's primary weapon tonight. At 350 yards, a horse with this kind of rating edge has every right to be the top selection.

place3Magic GuitarML 5/2

Magic Guitar (3) runs out of the same Chantelle Bourgeois barn at 86.23 — just under three points off stablemate Stolin Secrets — and shares the same 7% career win rate, making these two nearly identical on paper. Cristian Benitez gets the ride, and at 5/2, there's genuine value in a horse who could easily reverse the order on this horse if the break goes her way. In exacta terms, the 2-3 and 3-2 combinations are the obvious plays to consider.

show5GoodlookingperryML 9/2

Goodlookingperry (5) is an interesting inclusion here at 9/2 with a 54.90 rating — well behind the top two, but ahead of Done in Chrome and Aspen T in our model. Trainer Joe Tavares, who saddles multiple horses tonight, puts Brian Bell up on what looks like a horse with limited career data but enough TrackWiz support to warrant show coverage. If either Bourgeois runner runs into trouble out of the gate, Goodlookingperry could sneak into the exotics payout.

Race 6

9:35 PM EDT

Speed Index Race · 250 yd · Dirt

One horse towers over a competitive-looking 250-yard Speed Index field — Game Favorite's rating is 13+ points clear of the second-best, but the rest of the field is bunched tightly enough to make placing horses tricky.

win5Game FavoriteML 5/2

Game Favorite (5) is the standout here with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — by far the highest in this six-horse field — and backs it up with a 22% career win rate that shows this horse actually delivers when asked. Trainer Ruth Barbour sends out a horse who, at 5/2, is priced like a co-favorite but rates like the clear top selection. Brian Bell gets the call, and at a sharp 250 yards, a horse with this kind of ratings separation doesn't need a great trip — just a clean gate.

place4Rr IllbeurhuckleberyML 3/1

Rr Illbeurhucklebery (4) has the field's best career win rate at 27% and a solid 74.38 TrackWiz rating that puts him comfortably second in this lineup. Trainer Joe Tavares and jockey Corry Beland are a familiar pairing at Ajax tonight, and at 3/1 on the morning line, this is a horse who knows how to hit the board. If Game Favorite has a clean trip, expect this one to be chasing hard for second.

show3Lil Mz WinML 5/1

Lil Mz Win (3) comes in third in our ratings at 65.64 and offers 5/1 morning-line value in a race where the top two are clearly defined. Trainer Scott Reid and D I Benitez team up for what could be a sneaky third-place finisher, and the 9% career win rate actually understates this runner's profile a bit — in a field this compressed, third place is absolutely within reach. Good show horse for trifecta construction.

Race 7

10:00 PM EDT

Speed Index Race · 220 yd · Dirt

Jason Pascoe sends out two horses in this seven-horse Speed Index sprint at 220 yards, and his top-rated runner looks like the class of the field — though there are some intriguing win-rate numbers lurking further down the card.

win5A Shades of ColdML 4/1

A Shades of Cold (5) posts the field's top TrackWiz rating at 85.62 and pairs it with a 23% career win rate — solid numbers for a Speed Index race. Trainer Jason Pascoe also saddles Maryland Magic in this same race, and when a trainer doubles up, it's telling that A Shades of Cold is the higher-rated runner by more than 10 points. Cristian Benitez takes the mount at 4/1, which represents fair value given the ratings edge our analysis identifies.

place3Maryland MagicML 5/1

Maryland Magic (3) checks in second in the ratings at 75.27 and flashes the field's best career win rate at 30% — a number that deserves real attention. Trainer Jason Pascoe clearly has a capable barn tonight, and Jesus Ambrocio Medina rides a horse whose win percentage alone would make many handicappers look twice. At 5/1 morning line, the place ticket here carries genuine overlay value if you believe the win-rate tells a story about class.

show2Cg Mega SpyML 3/1

Cg Mega Spy (2) rates third in the field at 59.39 and brings an 18% career win rate to the table, making this one of the more consistent non-top-tier horses on tonight's card. Trainer Scott Reid and Cassandra Jeschke team up at 3/1 — a relatively short price for a show selection, but in a race where the top two are well ahead on ratings, the third-place slot is a realistic outcome. Good fit for exotics players looking to complete a tri.

Race 8

10:25 PM EDT

Maturity · 400 yd · Dirt

The nightcap is a Maturity — a prestigious conditions race — and one horse enters with an eye-popping 81% career win rate that makes this look like a near-impossible fade situation for the rest of the field.

win1Had to Be FabulousML 3/2

Had to Be Fabulous (1) is simply in a different class tonight — an 89.27 TrackWiz rating tops the field, and that 81% career win rate is one of the most dominant figures you'll see on any race card all year. Trainer Bryn Robertson, who also had Had to Be Relentless earlier tonight, clearly knows how to develop elite short-course runners, and Ismael Eluid Mosqueira — active all evening — gets the mount on the clear standout. At 3/2 morning line, this is about as confident a 'best bet' designation as TrackWiz analysis can produce, though no win is ever guaranteed.

place5Relentless BettyML 3/1

Relentless Betty (5) is the most logical threat to the top selection, posting a 76.69 TrackWiz rating and a 38% career win rate — the second-highest in the field by a wide margin. Trainer James Bogar has two runners in this Maturity, and Relentless Betty outrates stablemate Queen Charlotte considerably, which tells you which one the barn prefers. At 3/1 on the morning line, the place slot is a comfortable landing spot for a horse with these credentials.

show4Fiesty FeebeeML 4/1

Fiesty Feebee (4) carries a 65.27 rating and a 27% career win rate — enough to separate herself from the lower half of this eight-horse field. Trainer Richard W. Kennedy, who also has Magic in Wonderland in this race, sends the better-rated runner in Fiesty Feebee, and Alexis Sanchez gets the call at 4/1. For trifecta purposes, she's the most defensible third-leg option in a race where the top two feel relatively locked in.

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Bottom line: Ajax Downs is serving up a fast, clean card today with a weather setup that should produce sharp times from the gate. Had to Be Relentless in Race 1, Pretty Runaway in Race 2, and Politically Intoit in Race 3 are your free best bets to get started. The full story — including the Maturity, the Speed Index exotics, and our multi-race ticket breakdowns — is waiting for subscribers. Head to /pricing to unlock the complete card and make the most of your Wednesday at Ajax.

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