Ajax Downs Picks & Predictions — August 12, 2026

Caraways Rushin Risk (3) comes in a close second in ratings at 56.67, just 1.66 points off our top pick, making this essentially a coin flip on pure numbers. Trainer Wayne Procter also has Caraways Magic Rain in this race, and Rushin Risk is clearly the stable's preferred runner based on the ratings gap between the two. At 3/1 on the morning line, the place slot is a fair target for this one.

Royal Zanbo (4) is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 despite ranking third in our ratings at 54.96, which signals the public expects more than our model does — that kind of disconnect is worth flagging. Trainer Brooke Sisson puts up a horse who could easily hit the board in a field where no one has ever won, and jockey Brian Bell gives the connections solid representation. Toss Royal Zanbo in your exotics for coverage, but don't let the morning-line chalk price fool you into overweighting this one.

Rushn Valentine (3) is just a hair behind at 87.04 — a two-point gap that's essentially razor-thin at this level — and trainer Paul Garrison sends out what looks like a lightly raced but talented runner at 2/1. The fact that this horse has no recorded career win rate suggests limited starts, which in a maiden-heavy Speed Index field can actually be a neutral-to-positive signal; the talent is there and the horse hasn't been beaten up by a long campaign. Expect Rushn Valentine to be right there at the wire.

Caraways Sugar Joe (5) drops into third in our ratings at 60.68, a notable step down from the top two, but still outranks Baby On Fire and Jedi Master with room to spare. Trainer Wayne Procter has been active across the Ajax card tonight, and Tony Phillips takes the mount at 3/1. For exotics players, Caraways Sugar Joe is the logical anchor for the show slot when the top two are this dominant.

Magic Guitar (3) runs out of the same Chantelle Bourgeois barn at 86.23 — just under three points off stablemate Stolin Secrets — and shares the same 7% career win rate, making these two nearly identical on paper. Cristian Benitez gets the ride, and at 5/2, there's genuine value in a horse who could easily reverse the order on this horse if the break goes her way. In exacta terms, the 2-3 and 3-2 combinations are the obvious plays to consider.

Goodlookingperry (5) is an interesting inclusion here at 9/2 with a 54.90 rating — well behind the top two, but ahead of Done in Chrome and Aspen T in our model. Trainer Joe Tavares, who saddles multiple horses tonight, puts Brian Bell up on what looks like a horse with limited career data but enough TrackWiz support to warrant show coverage. If either Bourgeois runner runs into trouble out of the gate, Goodlookingperry could sneak into the exotics payout.

Rr Illbeurhucklebery (4) has the field's best career win rate at 27% and a solid 74.38 TrackWiz rating that puts him comfortably second in this lineup. Trainer Joe Tavares and jockey Corry Beland are a familiar pairing at Ajax tonight, and at 3/1 on the morning line, this is a horse who knows how to hit the board. If Game Favorite has a clean trip, expect this one to be chasing hard for second.

Lil Mz Win (3) comes in third in our ratings at 65.64 and offers 5/1 morning-line value in a race where the top two are clearly defined. Trainer Scott Reid and D I Benitez team up for what could be a sneaky third-place finisher, and the 9% career win rate actually understates this runner's profile a bit — in a field this compressed, third place is absolutely within reach. Good show horse for trifecta construction.

Maryland Magic (3) checks in second in the ratings at 75.27 and flashes the field's best career win rate at 30% — a number that deserves real attention. Trainer Jason Pascoe clearly has a capable barn tonight, and Jesus Ambrocio Medina rides a horse whose win percentage alone would make many handicappers look twice. At 5/1 morning line, the place ticket here carries genuine overlay value if you believe the win-rate tells a story about class.

Cg Mega Spy (2) rates third in the field at 59.39 and brings an 18% career win rate to the table, making this one of the more consistent non-top-tier horses on tonight's card. Trainer Scott Reid and Cassandra Jeschke team up at 3/1 — a relatively short price for a show selection, but in a race where the top two are well ahead on ratings, the third-place slot is a realistic outcome. Good fit for exotics players looking to complete a tri.

Relentless Betty (5) is the most logical threat to the top selection, posting a 76.69 TrackWiz rating and a 38% career win rate — the second-highest in the field by a wide margin. Trainer James Bogar has two runners in this Maturity, and Relentless Betty outrates stablemate Queen Charlotte considerably, which tells you which one the barn prefers. At 3/1 on the morning line, the place slot is a comfortable landing spot for a horse with these credentials.

Fiesty Feebee (4) carries a 65.27 rating and a 27% career win rate — enough to separate herself from the lower half of this eight-horse field. Trainer Richard W. Kennedy, who also has Magic in Wonderland in this race, sends the better-rated runner in Fiesty Feebee, and Alexis Sanchez gets the call at 4/1. For trifecta purposes, she's the most defensible third-leg option in a race where the top two feel relatively locked in.