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Ajax Downs Picks & Predictions — August 19, 2026

August 19, 20269 racesAll Ajax Downs picks

Results are in — see the official Ajax Downs chart and payouts (our top pick won 2 of 9)→

Ajax Downs is firing up the gates for a nine-race Wednesday card, and the conditions couldn't be much more cooperative — 76°F and partly cloudy means a fast, consistent dirt strip all afternoon. Quarter horse racing doesn't give you a lot of time to think, so having your homework done before the gates open is everything.

Today's card is a nice mix of Speed Index races, Trials, a Maiden, and a lone Allowance contest to cap the day. The Trials are always worth watching closely — these short sprints can tell you a lot about horses that will be lining up in future stakes events. There's plenty of action to dig into whether you're playing the first race or grinding the entire card.

TrackWiz has full ratings on every runner, and we're opening three races to everyone today — Races 1, 2, and 3 are free to preview. Races 4 through 9 are part of the premium breakdown.

Best Bets

Race 1

7:30 PM EDT

Speed Index Race · 220 yd · Dirt

A clear top-heavy Speed Index opener over 220 yards, with Runawey Perry and Gin Xpress separating themselves from the rest of a thin five-horse field.

win1Runawey PerryML 8/5

Runawey Perry is the standout in this field by a meaningful margin — a TrackWiz rating of 89.12 is the highest in the race and backs up the 8/5 morning line. A 30% career win rate is elite at this level, and in a sprint as short as 220 yards, talent gets out of the gate fast and doesn't look back. Trainer Bob Broadstock and jockey Ramiro Sanchez Castillo are a familiar combination, and this horse looks like the one to beat.

place4Gin XpressML 2/1

Gin Xpress comes in second in the ratings at 81.81, a clear step ahead of the third-place contenders despite the 2/1 morning line suggesting the crowd sees her as a close secondary option. At 220 yards, there's almost no margin for error, and Gin Xpress has the raw rating to hold her spot behind the top pick even if something breaks right for a rival.

show3Hours to FlyML 9/2

Hours to Fly at 9/2 represents some value in the show slot — a rating of 74.4 puts her solidly in third in this field, and Cristian Benitez is a capable rider who can get a short-field horse loaded in the gate and competitive from the break. In ultra-short sprints like 220 yards, minor placing opportunities can open up quickly if the top two tangle.

Race 2

7:55 PM EDT

Trial · 330 yd · Dirt

A wide-open 330-yard trial where the top four contenders are clustered within a tight rating band — this one could come down to the break and post-position luck.

win5Baref Hurricane RushML 5/2

Baref Hurricane Rush holds the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 57.5 and draws the 5/2 morning line, making her both the top-rated and one of the better-priced horses in the race. Corry Beland gets the call, and in trials this short, you want a rider who won't waste time finding position. The edge here is subtle but real — in a race where the ratings are compressed, even a half-point advantage at the top matters.

place3Stolen Ivory S DashML 3/1

Stolen Ivory S Dash checks in at a 56.67 rating — just a tick below the top pick — and gets live rider Ismael Eluid Mosqueira in the irons. At 3/1, there's mild overlay potential here if Baref Hurricane Rush stumbles at the gate. Trainer Bryn Robertson sends this one postward with reason to be competitive.

show6Oscar the GrouchML 7/2

Oscar the Grouch rounds out the top three with a 55.83 rating, trained by Jason Pascoe who also saddles Snowy Goose in the same race — a signal that Pascoe is splitting his roster across contenders and knows this field well. The 7/2 price on a horse this close in the ratings makes him a sensible exacta and trifecta inclusion.

Race 3

8:20 PM EDT

Trial · 330 yd · Dirt

Cold Hard Chief comes in as a perfect 100% career winner and the top-rated horse, making this trial feel much less wide open than the odds on others might suggest.

win5Cold Hard ChiefML 5/2

Cold Hard Chief is the most compelling selection on tonight's card for a simple reason — a 100% career win rate is as clean a stat as you'll see, and the TrackWiz rating of 57.5 leads this trial field. Trainer Jason Pascoe has runners in both Race 2 and Race 3 trials, and Cold Hard Chief at 5/2 is likely the barn's top horse in this half of the draw. Cristian Benitez rides, keeping a live stick on what should be the class of this group.

place4My Gypsy GirlML 3/1

My Gypsy Girl rates at 56.67 — second best in the field — and gets trainer James Bogar, who also runs Caviar Dreamz in Race 2 and shows he's comfortable placing horses in these trial conditions. Tony Phillips takes the mount, and at 3/1, My Gypsy Girl is a natural backup if Cold Hard Chief encounters any gate trouble in this 330-yard dash.

show1Eyes of FateML 7/2

Eyes of Fate at 7/2 rounds out the TrackWiz top three with a 55.83 rating, and trainer Richard W. Kennedy sends her out with Alexis Sanchez aboard. The ratings across the top three in this race are extremely tight — 57.5, 56.67, 55.83 — meaning the trifecta is competitive and Eyes of Fate earns her spot as the show hedge in an evenly matched group.

The free portion of today's card gives you a strong starting point. Race 1 is a 220-yard Speed Index sprint — the shortest dash on the ticket — and Runawey Perry comes in as the morning line favorite at 8/5 with a TrackWiz rating of 89.12, the highest mark among today's free picks. At 220 yards, gate speed is essentially the entire race, and our ratings suggest this one has the edge at the break.

Races 2 and 3 are both 330-yard Trials, with Baref Hurricane Rush and Cold Hard Chief topping their respective fields at matching 5/2 morning lines and identical 57.5 ratings. When two horses come in rated the same, the value question becomes critical — keep an eye on any late tote movement before you commit. The partly cloudy weather and mild temps favor honest, even pace in these short Trials, so don't expect any major track bias skewing things one way today.

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Race 4

8:45 PM EDT

Maiden · 350 yd · Dirt

The maiden ranks tell the story here — Quicksipofcorona has a rating nearly 10 points clear of the second-best, making this a case of one standout trying to run away from a bunch of first-time winners.

win4QuicksipofcoronaML 8/5

Quicksipofcorona's TrackWiz rating of 89.12 isn't just the best in this maiden field — it's dominant, sitting more than 10 points ahead of second-ranked Stonecutter Form. The 8/5 morning line reflects that edge, and trainer James Bogar puts Ismael Eluid Mosqueira in the irons, a rider who should handle the 350-yard distance well. In maiden races, class and rating separation like this usually shows up at the wire.

place2Stonecutter FormML 5/2

Stonecutter Form is the clear second choice in both the ratings (78.67) and the morning line (5/2), and trainer Daniel G. Stevenson sends Max Badal to ride what could be a capable runner well within her first opportunity. If Quicksipofcorona has any issues breaking cleanly, Stonecutter Form is positioned to capitalize and finish in the money.

show3Jumpin Dashin WillieML 2/1

Jumpin Dashin Willie draws the 2/1 morning line but rates third at 58.33 — a notable gap below the top two. Trainer Chantelle Bourgeois is active on the card tonight, and Cassandra Jeschke provides a capable pilot. As the morning-line second choice, Jumpin Dashin Willie may be slightly overbet for win but still worth covering in the show spot for exotic tickets.

Race 5

9:10 PM EDT

Trial · 400 yd · Dirt

This 400-yard trial features a remarkable talent concentration at the top — three horses rated 78-plus with career win percentages that read like a resume, making this a potential showcase race.

win4CopilotML 5/2

Copilot is the top-rated horse in tonight's Race 5 field at 87.81 and brings an eye-catching 57% career win rate to the table — which is remarkable for a horse that has been around long enough to build a meaningful sample. The 5/2 morning line is fair rather than generous, and trainer Scott Reid hands the reins to Helen Marie Vanek. At 400 yards, Copilot's proven ability to win consistently at a high clip sets this horse apart.

place6Chillin With PeepsML 7/2

Chillin With Peeps is arguably the most intriguing runner in the field — a 66% career win rate is the highest of any horse in Race 5, paired with a TrackWiz rating of 81.03. The 7/2 price reflects some market skepticism relative to Copilot, but a horse winning two-thirds of its career starts doesn't need a lot of excuses. Trainer Chantelle Bourgeois and jockey Cassandra Jeschke are a familiar pairing tonight.

show3Open a New CoronaML 3/1

Open a New Corona brings a 42% career win rate and a rating of 78.79 — the third-best in the field — and trainer Joe Tavares has a strong book of runners tonight. Brian Bell rides, and at 3/1, Open a New Corona is the kind of confirmed winner who can slot in behind the top two and make trifectas pay without needing to be the best horse in the race.

Race 6

9:35 PM EDT

Trial · 400 yd · Dirt

Race 6 is a 400-yard trial headlined by a pair of high-percentage winners at the top of the ratings — but the intrigue is Suit Up at 7/1 lurking just behind the chalk.

win7JeronemoML 4/1

Jeronemo posts the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 84.19, matched with a striking 66% career win rate that speaks to consistent excellence. Trainer James Bogar has been active throughout tonight's card, and Ismael Eluid Mosqueira picks up a high-profile mount that the morning line pegs at 4/1 — arguably underpriced given the credentials. In a 400-yard trial, a horse who wins nearly two out of three career starts is the kind of resume that demands respect.

place6Suit UpML 7/1

Suit Up is the value play in this race — a 7/1 morning line on a horse with a 81.25 TrackWiz rating is the kind of disconnect that exotic players should circle. A 28% career win rate isn't flashy, but it's respectable, and trainer Scott Reid runs both Suit Up and Keep Them in Corona tonight, suggesting this barn's confidence lies with Suit Up in the betting hierarchy. Helen Marie Vanek rides.

show3My Royal SwingerML 3/1

My Royal Swinger rounds out the top three with a 78.51 rating and a remarkable 57% career win rate — the second highest in the field. Trainer Joe Tavares runs two horses in this race with My Royal Swinger and Drouillard, and based on the ratings, My Royal Swinger is clearly the stable's best chance. Corry Beland pilots, and at 3/1, this horse merits coverage across all exotic combinations.

Race 7

10:00 PM EDT

Speed Index Race · 330 yd · Dirt

A Speed Index race at 330 yards where Hesmagicalydelicious arrives with the highest rating in the field but is outpriced by the morning-line favorite — that gap is worth exploiting.

win3HesmagicalydeliciousML 3/1

Hesmagicalydelicious carries an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — tops in this five-horse field by a comfortable margin — and yet the morning line has this horse at 3/1 behind Ms Fixin to Win at 8/5. That rating advantage is hard to dismiss. Trainer Bob Broadstock has two runners in Race 7, and Alexis Sanchez gets the better of the barn's horses based on the numbers. A 28% career win rate adds to the credibility here.

place5Ms Fixin to WinML 8/5

Ms Fixin to Win is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 but actually rates lower than the top pick at 66.42 — which is the kind of market quirk that creates overlay value in the win pool on Hesmagicalydelicious. Still, Ms Fixin to Win's 12% career win rate is workmanlike, and trainer Bob Broadstock clearly has confidence in this horse at this distance. Ramiro Sanchez Castillo takes the mount in what could be a barn 1-2 finish.

show1Favorite InterestML 2/1

Favorite Interest at 2/1 is another morning-line darling who rates lower than the top pick at 66.29 — just a hair under Ms Fixin to Win. Trainer Jason Pascoe sends Jesus Ambrocio Medina out on this one, and a 30% career win rate gives legitimate teeth to the market confidence. The show position provides coverage in a race where the top rated horse and the public favorites don't perfectly align.

Race 8

10:25 PM EDT

Speed Index Race · 350 yd · Dirt

Eye Spy My enters Race 8 as the ratings leader in a seven-horse Speed Index field, but Quick Willly at 5/1 and a surprising show play at 10/1 give the trifecta some real teeth.

win2Eye Spy MyML 3/1

Eye Spy My tops this field at a 87.08 TrackWiz rating and brings a 27% career win rate to a seven-horse field where many of the rivals are considerably lower-rated. Trainer Richard W. Kennedy and jockey Alexis Sanchez team up at 3/1, which is a fair price for the ratings leader. In a Speed Index race over 350 yards, you want the horse who has proven it can win regularly, and Eye Spy My's profile fits that bill.

place3Quick WilllyML 5/1

Quick Willly rates 76.31 — second best in the field — and a 22% career win rate keeps this runner in the hunt at 5/1. Trainer Chantelle Bourgeois has been a recurring name on tonight's card, and Cassandra Jeschke is comfortable in these shorter sprint formats at Ajax. The rating gap between Quick Willly and the third-ranked horses is meaningful, making this horse the logical place anchor in the exotics.

show7Lil PhylerML 10/1

Lil Phyler at 10/1 is a genuine value play in the show position — a 60.14 rating ranks fifth in the field by the numbers, but a 9% career win rate in a seven-horse dirt sprint is workable. Trainer Jason Pascoe runs two horses in this race, and Cristian Benitez gets Lil Phyler, suggesting some stable confidence in this runner. At 10/1 on the morning line, any show ticket here returns solid value if the top two run their race.

Race 9

10:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 110 yd · Dirt

Race 9 closes out the card with an allowance sprint over just 110 yards — the shortest race on the night — where Perryokie's dominant rating gives the field a clear top choice but Elvis the Famous offers a live alternative.

win5PerryokieML 4/1

Perryokie heads into the finale with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating — easily the best in this seven-horse allowance field — and a 20% career win rate that holds up in this company. The 4/1 morning line could be where the value sits tonight if the crowd overweights the morning line on Elvis the Famous at 3/1. Trainer Bob Broadstock and jockey Ramiro Sanchez Castillo are a connected pairing, and in a 110-yard all-out sprint, the highest-rated horse in the field has to be respected.

place7Elvis the FamousML 3/1

Elvis the Famous rates at 74.86 — second best in this field — and carries a 20% career win rate that matches Perryokie's. Trainer Bryn Robertson sends Ismael Eluid Mosqueira to the post at 3/1, and while the morning line makes Elvis the slight public second choice, the rating gap to the top pick is real. This is a horse who can cash a place ticket and make trifectas work in a short, chaotic sprint.

show1Chamacas RocketML 9/2

Chamacas Rocket rates 71.22 — third in the field — and while an 11% career win rate isn't eye-catching, trainer Jason Pascoe is well-represented across tonight's card and Cristian Benitez keeps the mount. The 9/2 morning line on the third-rated horse in a seven-runner field offers legitimate show value, and in a 110-yard race where any stumble at the gate reshuffles the order in a blink, having depth in your exotics pays off.

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Today's Ajax Downs card is a tight, action-packed slate built for quarter horse fans who want fast decisions backed by sharp data. Runawey Perry leads the free picks in Race 1, while the premium side features value angles on Jeronemo at 4/1 in Race 6 and Perryokie closing out the card in Race 9. Post time is approaching — get your tickets in order, and if you want the full card breakdown, TrackWiz premium has you covered at /pricing.

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