Daily Picks

Ajax Downs Picks & Predictions — August 5, 2026

August 5, 20267 racesAll Ajax Downs picks

This card ran on August 5, 2026.

Best bets at Ajax Downs, August 5, 2026

Race 13Unshakeable HopeML 5/23:30 PM EDT

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 5 races are for members.

A free account opens race 2 too. Premium opens all 7, with AI ratings on every runner and SmartBet, which splits one bet across the horses you like.

Join Free See plans · from $9.99

It's a sharp summer afternoon at Ajax Downs — clear skies, 80°F, and a fast dirt track primed for the kind of explosive short-distance sprints this oval does best. Seven races are on the card today, spanning 300 to 350 yards of pure quarter-horse speed, and TrackWiz has the full picture covered from the maiden openers through the Derby headliner.

Ajax is a tight, quick-firing track where fractions happen in the blink of an eye. On a day like today — firm footing, no weather complications — expect horses that break clean and get to full stride immediately to have a serious edge. Class and early speed are king here, and our ratings reflect exactly that.

Best Bets

Race 1

3:30 PM EDT

Maiden · 300 yd · Dirt

A wide-open maiden sprint over 300 yards where the top three contenders are separated by less than two rating points — this one could come down to a break from the gate.

win3Unshakeable HopeML 5/2

Unshakeable Hope tops our TrackWiz ratings at 57.5 in this maiden field, a narrow but meaningful edge over her stablemate Smokin Rush. Trainer Chantelle Bourgeois saddles both of the top-rated horses in this race, which speaks to the barn's confidence heading in. Jockey Cassandra Jeschke gets the call here, and in a 300-yard dash where every fraction matters, having a sharp pilot in the irons is a real asset. At 5/2 on the morning line, the price is fair for the top-rated runner.

place1Smokin RushML 3/1

Smokin Rush checks in with a TrackWiz rating of 56.67 — just a hair behind stablemate Unshakeable Hope — and shares the same Chantelle Bourgeois barn, so the connections clearly like both horses. Corry Beland is up at 3/1, and in a field this tight, the place spot looks like solid value. If the barn's two horses run first and second, the exacta combining them could pay nicely.

show4Cold Hard ChiefML 7/2

Cold Hard Chief rates 55.83 under our model, third-best in the field, and lands at 7/2 on the morning line. Trainer Jason Pascoe sends him out with Cristian Benitez, a strong jockey-trainer combo to note. In a compressed maiden field where the top four ratings are bunched together, Cold Hard Chief is a reasonable third-place insurance piece in exacta and trifecta plays.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

3:55 PM EDT

Maiden · 300 yd · Dirt

Stonecutter Form stands out as a significant class-rating outlier in this maiden sprint, but the morning line favorite Chiseled Fate will put that gap to the test at a short price.

win1Stonecutter FormML 3/1

Stonecutter Form owns the highest TrackWiz rating in today's entire card through the first two races — a 77.39 that dwarfs the rest of this maiden field by a wide margin. The next-best horse in the race checks in at 59.0, meaning Stonecutter Form holds a gap of nearly 18 rating points, which is substantial even in unpredictable maiden company. Trainer Daniel G. Stevenson puts Max Badal aboard, and the 3/1 morning line actually represents overlay value given that edge. In 300-yard sprints, the best horse often just needs a clean break to settle matters quickly.

place3Chiseled FateML 8/5

Chiseled Fate is the morning line favorite at 8/5 with a TrackWiz rating of 59.0, making her the logical place contender behind Stonecutter Form. Trainer Richard W. Kennedy sends her out with Brian Bell in the irons — a professional pairing that won't be wasted in a short field. The short price limits the win value, but she's a reasonable place ticket underneath the top pick.

show2MakodeML 2/1

Makode rates 58.33 under our model, just a tick below Chiseled Fate, and goes to post at 2/1 — actually shorter than his ratings suggest he should be. Trainer Bob Broadstock has him ready with Ramiro Sanchez Castillo up. With the ratings so tightly bunched between second and third place, Makode is a sensible show play and a natural trifecta wheel piece.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

We're giving you three races on the house today, and they paint a nice cross-section of what this card has to offer. Unshakeable Hope (Race 1, 5/2 morning line) and Stonecutter Form (Race 2, 3/1) headline the maiden action at 300 yards — short, violent sprints where gate-to-wire ability separates contenders almost instantly. Our ratings have Stonecutter Form as the stronger number between the two at 77.39, making that 3/1 morning line worth a close look.

Race 3 steps up the competition with a Speed Index Race at 330 yards, and Favorite Interest (5/2) lands at the top of our board with an 87.81 rating — the highest of the three free races and a figure that stacks up well against the open class. On a dry, true track like today's, that kind of speed figure typically holds. All three free races share one theme: clean breaks win at Ajax, and our top picks project to do exactly that.

Free with an account

Open the next race free

A free account opens the first 2 races at every track, and every race at our Track of the Day. No credit card needed.

Create a free account Sign in

Full Card Analysis

Race 3

4:20 PM EDT

Speed Index Race · 330 yd · Dirt

A Speed Index race at 330 yards where Favorite Interest's dominant rating separates him from a competitive middle pack, though the 2/1 second choice Oppy figures to keep things honest.

win2Favorite InterestML 5/2

Favorite Interest is the standout of this field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 — the highest mark in Race 3 by more than eight points over Oppy. He also brings a 33% career win rate to the gate, which in quarter horse racing is an excellent conversion number that signals a horse who shows up when the lights are on. Trainer Jason Pascoe has him loaded up with Jesus Ambrocio Medina in the irons, a combination that carries barn confidence. At 5/2 on the morning line, you're getting a slight price bump on what our model considers the clear top horse.

place4OppyML 2/1

Oppy rates 79.54 and posts a 10% career win rate, which is respectable for the class level. Trainer Ruth Barbour sends him out with Cristian Benitez, one of the more active jockeys on today's card. He's installed at 2/1 on the morning line — slightly short for a horse who profiles more as a place threat — but in a five-horse field he's a natural underneath Favorite Interest.

show3Fire Hot StuffML 3/1

Fire Hot Stuff checks in at 69.9 on our rating scale with a 9% career win rate, and trainer Jason Pascoe doubles up in this race alongside Favorite Interest. J.B. Botello gets the call, and at 3/1 on the morning line, there's show value here in trifecta combinations. Having two Pascoe horses in the top three of our picks suggests the barn came ready to compete.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 4

4:45 PM EDT

Speed Index Race · 330 yd · Dirt

Peighntmeadiamond stands as the clear top-rated horse, but this Speed Index race has real depth — Niigaanii and Snow Moose both own strong career win percentages that make the exotics tricky.

win2PeighntmeadiamondML 8/5

Peighntmeadiamond leads this field with a TrackWiz rating of 89.12 — the top mark among all horses in Race 4 — and backs it up with a 25% career win rate. Trainer Joe Tavares puts Brian Bell aboard, and Bell has been a consistent presence on today's card for good reason. The 8/5 morning line reflects her status as the clear class of the field, and while the short price limits win ticket value, she's the right horse to key in exotics.

place5Snow MooseML 3/1

Snow Moose is quietly fascinating here — a TrackWiz rating of 71.27 combined with a 37% career win rate makes him one of the better win-percentage horses on the card. Trainer Jason Pascoe gives him to J.B. Botello, and at 3/1 morning line odds, the price is fair for a horse who historically closes out races at a strong clip. He's our top pick to fill the place spot behind Peighntmeadiamond.

show3NiigaaniiML 2/1

Niigaanii brings a 38% career win rate — the highest of any horse in this race — and a solid 70.3 TrackWiz rating. Trainer Scott Reid puts D.I. Benitez in the irons at 2/1 on the morning line, and while the rating gap to Peighntmeadiamond is real, that career win percentage tells you this horse competes. He's a natural trifecta piece and worth including in multi-race wagers.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 5

5:10 PM EDT

Allowance · 330 yd · Dirt

The allowance ranks for a 330-yard sprint, and a tight duel looms at the top between two horses separated by just 3.35 rating points — the morning line has it nearly backwards compared to what our model says.

win5Eye Spy MyML 5/2

Eye Spy My tops this allowance field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 and a 20% career win rate, but here's the interesting wrinkle — the morning line has her at 5/2, slightly longer than the 8/5 on stablemate Suit Up. Our model disagrees with that pricing, making Eye Spy My a potential overlay. Trainer Richard W. Kennedy sends her out with Alexis Sanchez, and at 330 yards there isn't much room for a slow start — if she breaks clean, she has the tools to wire this field.

place4Suit UpML 8/5

Suit Up rates 84.46 under our model and carries a 28% career win rate — strong numbers that explain the 8/5 morning line favoritism. Trainer Scott Reid and jockey Helen Marie Vanek form a combination that shows up multiple times on today's card, which is always a sign of an active and well-organized operation. She's the logical place key and a horse to watch across the day's wagers.

show2Shake Em AliceML 3/1

Shake Em Alice brings a 25% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 66.32 — the third-best in this allowance field. Trainer Joe Tavares puts Brian Bell up at 3/1 morning line, and in a five-horse field where the top two horses will likely draw most of the money, she could offer show value at a decent price. Her win percentage suggests she's no stranger to hitting the board.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 6

5:35 PM EDT

Derby · 350 yd · Dirt

The Ajax Downs Derby is the marquee race of the night, and Chillin With Peeps brings a jaw-dropping 80% career win rate into a wide-open ten-horse field that still has enough talent to make the exotics interesting.

win7Chillin With PeepsML 3/1

Chillin With Peeps is the story of the night — an 80% career win rate that stands alone on this entire card, paired with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 that leads this Derby field. Trainer Chantelle Bourgeois puts Cassandra Jeschke aboard, and this combination has clearly been building toward a spot like this. The 3/1 morning line is honest value given the competition — in a ten-horse Derby field, getting 3/1 on the top-rated horse with an elite win percentage is not something to overthink.

place3Open a New CoronaML 7/2

Open a New Corona rates 82.41 and carries a 33% career win rate — legitimate numbers for a Derby contender. Trainer Joe Tavares gives him to Brian Bell, one of the busier riders on the card tonight, and the 7/2 morning line reflects a horse that has genuine win upside even if our model slots him second. He's the natural place key underneath Chillin With Peeps and worth considering in the exacta.

show2Sixes Royal MaidenML 6/1

Sixes Royal Maiden checks in at 70.88 with a 16% career win rate and goes at 6/1 morning line under Jason Pascoe and Jesus Ambrocio Medina. In a large Derby field, pace scenarios can get complicated and horses with consistent form profiles tend to sneak into the trifecta. The rating gap between Sixes Royal Maiden and the top two is real, but at 6/1 there's overlay potential for show and trifecta purposes.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 7

6:00 PM EDT

Speed Index Race · 350 yd · Dirt

Quick Willly owns the top rating in this eight-horse Speed Index race at 350 yards but goes off at 3/1 — longer than the 2/1 morning line on Leaninto This Moment — setting up a potentially profitable upset of the market.

win6Quick WilllyML 3/1

Quick Willly leads this field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 and a 23% career win rate, yet the morning line has him priced at 3/1 while Leaninto This Moment sits at 2/1 — a market pricing that our model pushes back on hard. Trainer Chantelle Bourgeois has Cassandra Jeschke up, the same combination that we're backing in the Derby earlier in the card. At 350 yards, having a horse with the top rating going off at a slight overlay makes this one of the better win value spots on the card tonight.

place7Leaninto This MomentML 2/1

Leaninto This Moment rates 72.94 and brings a 12% career win rate, which is the lowest win percentage among our top three picks in this race. Trainer James Bogar puts Ismael Eluid Mosqueira in the irons at 2/1, and the morning line favoritism is based on something our model doesn't fully capture — possibly recent workout patterns. He's a legit place threat, but the market may have him slightly overpriced relative to Quick Willly.

show2Turnpike TrippingML 3/2

Turnpike Tripping checks in at a TrackWiz rating of 63.33 with a 16% career win rate and is installed at 3/2 on the morning line — the shortest price in the field. Trainer Brooke Sisson sends her out with Alexis Sanchez, and the market clearly loves her despite her lower rating relative to Quick Willly. She's worth including on your show tickets and as a trifecta wheel component, especially since the public backing suggests something our ratings may not fully reflect.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Today's card at Ajax Downs is built for speed, and the conditions are as good as it gets — firm dirt, clear sunshine, and seven races that reward smart handicapping. Start with our three free picks (Unshakeable Hope, Stonecutter Form, and Favorite Interest) and get a feel for how the track is playing. Ready to go deeper? Subscribers unlock the full card including the Derby analysis and our multi-race exotic strategy. Check out TrackWiz Premium and make every race count.

← All Ajax Downs picks & predictions