Daily Picks

Ajax Downs Picks & Predictions — July 29, 2026

Wednesday, July 29, 20268 racesAjax Downs

It's a clear, sunny Wednesday at Ajax Downs — 78°F, fast dirt, and eight quick-burst quarter horse races on the board. Conditions are about as good as it gets for short-track racing, and with no weather excuses in play, form should hold up cleanly today.

The card mixes Speed Index races, maiden action, allowance spots, and a Futurity to keep things interesting from first race to last. Distances range from a blink-and-you'll-miss-it 110 yards all the way out to 350, so there's plenty of variety in how these races will set up.

Our TrackWiz ratings cover all 8 races — three of them free to every reader, with full premium analysis unlocking the back half of the card where things really heat up.

Best Bets

Race 1

7:30 PM EDT

Speed Index Race · 250 yd · Dirt

The TrackWiz ratings tell a clear story in this 250-yard opener — Chamacas Rocket sits atop the field by a meaningful margin, but the tight clustering of Bewitchin and Rushn Valentine keeps the exotics honest.

win4Chamacas RocketML 5/1

Chamacas Rocket earns the top rating in this field at 83.35, a notable separation from the rest of the contenders over this ultra-short 250-yard dash. Trainer Jason Pascoe also saddles Trip Corona in this race, showing stable confidence across the card, and Cristian Benitez is a capable handler for a speed-pressed sprint. At 5/1 on the morning line, there's genuine value here for a horse whose rating sits nearly six points clear of the next rival.

place5BewitchinML 5/2

Bewitchin brings a 14% career win rate to the table — one of only two horses in this field with a recorded win percentage — and her 77.65 rating is a solid number for this level. Trainer Dan Giles sends her out as the second choice at 5/2, suggesting the connections are confident in a big effort. In a race this short, finishing touches matter less than raw speed, and her profile suggests she fires.

show2Rushn ValentineML 10/1

Rushn Valentine comes in with a 76.88 TrackWiz rating and draws post two, which should give Max Badal a clean trip right off the break. No career win percentage on record, but the rating alone justifies slotting her into the bottom of a trifecta. At 10/1 on the morning line, she's a low-cost exotic inclusion if Chamacas Rocket and Bewitchin fill out the top two spots.

Race 2

7:55 PM EDT

Speed Index Race · 350 yd · Dirt

Favorite Interest dominates this 350-yard Speed Index field on ratings alone, but Drouillard's strong career win percentage makes the exacta worth more than a single-key play.

win6Favorite InterestML 5/1

Favorite Interest is the standout of this field with a TrackWiz rating of 84.17 — the highest mark in the race by over eight points — and backs it up with a career win percentage of 36%, the best among all starters today. Trainer Jason Pascoe clearly has this horse ready to fire, and Jesus Ambrocio Medina in the irons adds confidence. At 5/1 on the morning line, the odds don't reflect the rating edge, which is precisely the kind of value-on-paper situation we look for.

place3DrouillardML 5/2

Drouillard posts a 75.99 rating and a 25% career win rate — tied for tops in the field on that metric — making him the logical second choice even if the morning line at 5/2 already reflects that. Trainer Joe Tavares also saddles Upandover in this race, and Drouillard is the clear first-string option based on ratings. Jose Nabor Cruz aboard is a capable rider for a horse that looks like a natural place finisher.

show1Ms Fixin to WinML 7/2

Ms Fixin to Win sits third in the TrackWiz ratings at 66.35 and carries a 13% career win rate, which isn't flashy but is consistent enough to land on the bottom of an exotic ticket. Ramiro Sanchez Castillo picks up the mount for trainer Bob Broadstock, and drawing post one means she'll need to break cleanly. At 7/2, she's not a major overlay, but her numbers hold up well against the mid-range of this field.

Race 3

8:20 PM EDT

Maiden · 220 yd · Dirt

An all-maiden 220-yard sprint where Fly Fishn towers above the field on TrackWiz ratings, but a tight pack of rivals in the 53–58 range keeps the bottom of the ticket wide open.

win3Fly FishnML 3/1

Fly Fishn carries an 82.43 TrackWiz rating into this maiden race — a figure that would be competitive in most open fields on today's card, let alone a maiden sprint. No career win percentage is on record since she hasn't won yet, but the ratings model sees something that the morning line oddsmakers do too, as she's listed at 3/1 in a field where the second-highest rated horse checks in at 57.5. Trainer Dan Giles and jockey Cristian Benitez are a capable combination, and at 220 yards, there's no time to make mistakes — you either break well and run, or you don't.

place6Jumpin Dashin WillieML 5/2

Jumpin Dashin Willie draws the outside in post six and carries a 57.5 rating with Cassandra Jeschke up for trainer Chantelle Bourgeois. That connection has multiple starters on tonight's card, which speaks to a barn in good form. She's the morning line second choice at 5/2, and in a maiden race where the top pick's edge is so large, finding a live runner at a reasonable price for the place spot is the smart exotic play.

show4Baby On FireML 7/2

Baby On Fire rates at 55.83 and is one of three horses clustered between 53 and 58 on the TrackWiz scale — so separating them comes down to connections and post position. Trainer James Bogar sends her out at 7/2 with Tony Phillips up, and she lands in post four — a neutral draw in a six-horse field. She's not the most exciting show play, but at a manageable price with a rating that edges out Bellatrix, she belongs on the ticket.

The free portion of today's card kicks off with a pair of Speed Index races before rolling into the maiden event — and there's a nice through-line connecting our top picks. Chamacas Rocket (Race 1, 83.35 TrackWiz rating) and Favorite Interest (Race 2, 84.17) both come in at 5/1 on the morning line, meaning the morning-line maker isn't in love with either — which is exactly where we like to find value in short fields. These aren't chalk plays; they're horses our numbers favor over the crowd's money.

In Race 3, Fly Fishn draws the chalk role at 3/1 in the maiden sprint and posts an 82.43 rating — respectable for a first-level condition. On a fast, dry track like today, maiden sprinters with clean gate speed tend to get every advantage. Keep an eye on how cleanly these three break — at these distances, the first stride out of the gate can be the whole ballgame.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

8:45 PM EDT

Allowance · 220 yd · Dirt

This Allowance sprint at 220 yards features two horses with dominant TrackWiz ratings separating themselves from a competitive mid-pack, with a double-digit longshot lurking in the exotics at a price worth taking.

win7Fishin for CoronasML 5/1

Fishin for Coronas sits atop this field with a 84.17 rating and a career win percentage of 28% — meaningful production in an allowance field. Trainer James Bogar and jockey Ismael Eluid Mosqueira combine on a horse whose numbers suggest he belongs at the top of the class here. Posted at 5/1 on the morning line, the price is fair for a horse whose TrackWiz rating ties for the best on the entire card today.

place2Suit UpML 3/1

Suit Up is the morning line second choice at 3/1, and the 82.81 TrackWiz rating backs that up — she's within two points of the top pick, making this a genuine two-horse race at the top. What really stands out is her 33% career win rate, one of the stronger marks in tonight's field, suggesting she converts when she runs a good race. Helen Marie Vanek takes the call for trainer Scott Reid, a connection with multiple horses on tonight's program.

show4Magic GuitarML 10/1

Magic Guitar is an interesting show play here at 10/1 despite a 69.15 TrackWiz rating that slots her solidly in the middle of the field. Her 7% career win rate is modest, but she's drawn post four with Cassandra Jeschke aboard for trainer Chantelle Bourgeois. At double digits on the morning line with a rating that clears the bottom half of the field, she offers real value in the third spot of any exotic combination.

Race 5

9:10 PM EDT

Speed Index Race · 300 yd · Dirt

Two horses — Maryland Magic and Copilot — are separated by less than a point at the top of the TrackWiz ratings in this 300-yard Speed Index race, setting up what looks like a genuine duel for supremacy and a vulnerable price on both.

win3Maryland MagicML 5/1

Maryland Magic tops this field with a 84.17 TrackWiz rating and an impressive 31% career win rate — a horse that not only profiles well but actually wins when the conditions are right. Trainer Jason Pascoe loads up on this card with multiple starters, and Cristian Benitez takes the mount on what looks like the barn's best runner of the night. At 5/1 on the morning line, Maryland Magic offers a touch more value than her near-equal Copilot at 3/1, making her the pick if you want upside on the top two.

place6CopilotML 3/1

Copilot carries a 83.29 rating — just a hair off Maryland Magic — but what really catches the eye is a 66% career win rate, one of the most striking figures on tonight's entire card. That kind of conversion rate in a Speed Index race means this horse doesn't just compete, it closes. Helen Marie Vanek aboard for trainer Scott Reid is a combo that's well-represented tonight, and at 3/1, Copilot is the safest place bet on the program.

show5A Shades of ColdML 4/1

A Shades of Cold drops to a 56.73 rating but owns a solid 23% career win rate, and at 4/1 she represents a reasonable bridge from the top two to the rest of the field in trifecta construction. Trainer Jason Pascoe sends her out — this is a barn with a lot of horses working tonight, suggesting a sharp operation that keeps horses race-ready. J. B. Botello picks up the mount and will have to keep her out of trouble on the break at this short distance.

Race 6

9:35 PM EDT

Futurity · 300 yd · Dirt

A Futurity field loaded with first-time winners and maidens gets a jolt of intrigue from Had to Be Valiant's perfect record, while the ratings remain tightly bunched throughout — making this the toughest race to separate on tonight's card.

win1Had to Be ValiantML 3/2

Had to Be Valiant enters this Futurity with a 100% career win rate — a perfect record that immediately demands attention regardless of morning line. At 3/2, the crowd clearly knows too, and trainer Bryn Robertson sends him out with Ismael Eluid Mosqueira up, a jockey with multiple appearances on tonight's card. His TrackWiz rating of 59.17 leads the field, and in a race where nearly every competitor is unproven at the win level, that combination of rating edge and undefeated record is hard to argue against.

place8Stolen Ivory S DashML 2/1

Stolen Ivory S Dash comes in with a 58.33 rating — just a point behind the top pick — and is the second morning line choice at 2/1, making her the natural safety net if Had to Be Valiant stumbles. Jose Nabor Cruz takes the mount for trainer Bryn Robertson, who also saddles the top pick, meaning this is clearly a two-horse barn invasion in this Futurity. Having both the 1 and the 8 from the same trainer in a tightly rated field is a pattern worth noting.

show7Baref Hurricane RushML 3/1

Baref Hurricane Rush checks in with a 56.67 rating and draws post seven, giving Corry Beland a clear outside lane in this Futurity. The horse is listed at 3/1 on the morning line — third choice in a race that figures to see the top two starters well-backed — and while no career win percentage is on record, the ratings cluster is tight enough that any of the top four could theoretically finish third. The morning line price is fair for a horse whose number is the third-best in the field.

Race 7

10:00 PM EDT

Allowance · 110 yd · Dirt

Niigaanii stands out as the class of this nine-horse Allowance at 110 yards with both the top rating and the top career win percentage in the field, but the exotics could get interesting with Had to Be Relentless at 8/1 lurking in the third spot.

win4NiigaaniiML 3/1

Niigaanii is the most complete horse on tonight's card in terms of statistical profile — an 87.08 TrackWiz rating paired with a 41% career win rate is elite company for an Allowance race. Trainer Scott Reid sends her out with Cassandra Jeschke in the irons, a combination that's appeared multiple times on tonight's program. At 3/1, she's the logical choice at the morning line, and at 110 yards, a horse this consistently good off the gate doesn't leave much room for the field to rally.

place3Kissin EllaML 7/2

Kissin Ella rates 83.32 — second in the field — and has the 7/2 morning line to match her standing as the clear second choice. Trainer Jason Pascoe and jockey J. B. Botello are a regular combination tonight, and Kissin Ella's 14% career win rate, while modest, is backed by a strong TrackWiz number that suggests she runs well without always getting the W. In a race this short, place bets on high-rated horses are smart construction.

show7Had to Be RelentlessML 8/1

Had to Be Relentless checks in with a 77.77 TrackWiz rating — third in this nine-horse field — and a 25% career win rate that compares favorably with most of the competition. Jose Nabor Cruz rides for trainer Bryn Robertson, the same barn that won big in Race 6, so connections are clearly hot tonight. At 8/1 on the morning line, getting this level of rating and win percentage at that price is exactly the kind of show value that pays off in trifecta tickets.

Race 8

10:25 PM EDT

Speed Index Race · 220 yd · Dirt

The nightcap features a three-way jam at the top of the ratings — Ivory Queen, My Royal Swinger, and The Fire Witch are separated by less than 1.4 points — but Ivory Queen's morning line price of 3/2 reflects a market edge that the numbers barely justify.

win6Ivory QueenML 3/2

Ivory Queen leads this 220-yard closer with an 84.02 TrackWiz rating and a 23% career win rate, with J. B. Botello up for the prolific Jason Pascoe stable. She's installed at 3/2 as the morning line favorite, and in a Speed Index race at this distance there's no time to recover from a bad break — her numbers suggest she's reliable enough to justify the chalk. The ratings margin is slim, but when the top horse also gets the best odds support from the market, it's worth respecting.

place2My Royal SwingerML 6/1

My Royal Swinger is the value angle in this race — an 82.71 TrackWiz rating and an eye-catching 50% career win rate make her one of the most productive horses on tonight's entire card. Trainer Joe Tavares sends her out with Corry Beland up, and at 6/1 on the morning line, the crowd is sleeping on a horse who wins half the time she runs. That's the kind of place overlay that makes the exacta worth reversing.

show8The Fire WitchML 2/1

The Fire Witch carries a 82.65 rating — just a fraction behind My Royal Swinger — and posts a 28% career win rate for trainer Dan Giles. Cristian Benitez has been active all night and takes the mount here, adding a jockey with live feel for the conditions. At 2/1, she might be the second choice by post time, but if Ivory Queen and My Royal Swinger run their numbers, The Fire Witch landing third is a very realistic outcome worth covering in trifectas.

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Today's Ajax Downs card offers real value from the jump — Chamacas Rocket and Favorite Interest at 5/1 in the openers deserve serious attention, and Fly Fishn is a sensible play in the maiden. For the full card including the Futurity, Niigaanii's standout allowance spot, and complete exotic ticket recommendations, subscribers can access everything in the premium breakdown. Not a subscriber yet? Check out our plans at TrackWiz /pricing and get in on the full card before post time.

← Back to all picks

Best Bets

Race 1↗

Race 2↗

Race 3↗

Full Card Analysis

Get the Full Card Analysis

Race 1

Race 2

Race 3