Ajax Downs Picks & Predictions — July 29, 2026

Jumpin Dashin Willie draws the outside in post six and carries a 57.5 rating with Cassandra Jeschke up for trainer Chantelle Bourgeois. That connection has multiple starters on tonight's card, which speaks to a barn in good form. She's the morning line second choice at 5/2, and in a maiden race where the top pick's edge is so large, finding a live runner at a reasonable price for the place spot is the smart exotic play.

Baby On Fire rates at 55.83 and is one of three horses clustered between 53 and 58 on the TrackWiz scale — so separating them comes down to connections and post position. Trainer James Bogar sends her out at 7/2 with Tony Phillips up, and she lands in post four — a neutral draw in a six-horse field. She's not the most exciting show play, but at a manageable price with a rating that edges out Bellatrix, she belongs on the ticket.

Suit Up is the morning line second choice at 3/1, and the 82.81 TrackWiz rating backs that up — she's within two points of the top pick, making this a genuine two-horse race at the top. What really stands out is her 33% career win rate, one of the stronger marks in tonight's field, suggesting she converts when she runs a good race. Helen Marie Vanek takes the call for trainer Scott Reid, a connection with multiple horses on tonight's program.

Magic Guitar is an interesting show play here at 10/1 despite a 69.15 TrackWiz rating that slots her solidly in the middle of the field. Her 7% career win rate is modest, but she's drawn post four with Cassandra Jeschke aboard for trainer Chantelle Bourgeois. At double digits on the morning line with a rating that clears the bottom half of the field, she offers real value in the third spot of any exotic combination.

Copilot carries a 83.29 rating — just a hair off Maryland Magic — but what really catches the eye is a 66% career win rate, one of the most striking figures on tonight's entire card. That kind of conversion rate in a Speed Index race means this horse doesn't just compete, it closes. Helen Marie Vanek aboard for trainer Scott Reid is a combo that's well-represented tonight, and at 3/1, Copilot is the safest place bet on the program.

A Shades of Cold drops to a 56.73 rating but owns a solid 23% career win rate, and at 4/1 she represents a reasonable bridge from the top two to the rest of the field in trifecta construction. Trainer Jason Pascoe sends her out — this is a barn with a lot of horses working tonight, suggesting a sharp operation that keeps horses race-ready. J. B. Botello picks up the mount and will have to keep her out of trouble on the break at this short distance.

Stolen Ivory S Dash comes in with a 58.33 rating — just a point behind the top pick — and is the second morning line choice at 2/1, making her the natural safety net if Had to Be Valiant stumbles. Jose Nabor Cruz takes the mount for trainer Bryn Robertson, who also saddles the top pick, meaning this is clearly a two-horse barn invasion in this Futurity. Having both the 1 and the 8 from the same trainer in a tightly rated field is a pattern worth noting.

Baref Hurricane Rush checks in with a 56.67 rating and draws post seven, giving Corry Beland a clear outside lane in this Futurity. The horse is listed at 3/1 on the morning line — third choice in a race that figures to see the top two starters well-backed — and while no career win percentage is on record, the ratings cluster is tight enough that any of the top four could theoretically finish third. The morning line price is fair for a horse whose number is the third-best in the field.

Kissin Ella rates 83.32 — second in the field — and has the 7/2 morning line to match her standing as the clear second choice. Trainer Jason Pascoe and jockey J. B. Botello are a regular combination tonight, and Kissin Ella's 14% career win rate, while modest, is backed by a strong TrackWiz number that suggests she runs well without always getting the W. In a race this short, place bets on high-rated horses are smart construction.

Had to Be Relentless checks in with a 77.77 TrackWiz rating — third in this nine-horse field — and a 25% career win rate that compares favorably with most of the competition. Jose Nabor Cruz rides for trainer Bryn Robertson, the same barn that won big in Race 6, so connections are clearly hot tonight. At 8/1 on the morning line, getting this level of rating and win percentage at that price is exactly the kind of show value that pays off in trifecta tickets.

My Royal Swinger is the value angle in this race — an 82.71 TrackWiz rating and an eye-catching 50% career win rate make her one of the most productive horses on tonight's entire card. Trainer Joe Tavares sends her out with Corry Beland up, and at 6/1 on the morning line, the crowd is sleeping on a horse who wins half the time she runs. That's the kind of place overlay that makes the exacta worth reversing.

The Fire Witch carries a 82.65 rating — just a fraction behind My Royal Swinger — and posts a 28% career win rate for trainer Dan Giles. Cristian Benitez has been active all night and takes the mount here, adding a jockey with live feel for the conditions. At 2/1, she might be the second choice by post time, but if Ivory Queen and My Royal Swinger run their numbers, The Fire Witch landing third is a very realistic outcome worth covering in trifectas.