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Woodbine Picks & Predictions — September 24, 2026

September 24, 20268 racesAll Woodbine picks

It's a beautiful Thursday afternoon at Woodbine — clear skies, 66 degrees, and a crisp late-September breeze that's about as good as it gets for a day at the track. Conditions are ideal across both surfaces, which matters a lot on a card that splits its eight races evenly between dirt and turf.

We've got everything from short-field maiden sprints to a mile route on the green stuff, so there's something here for every style of handicapper. The pace scenarios figure to vary wildly from race to race, which creates real opportunity for the prepared bettor — and a few landmines for the casual chalk player.

Three races are open to everyone today. The remaining five are part of our full premium breakdown. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

7:10 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

A maiden sprint that looks top-heavy on paper, with TrackWiz ratings creating a wide gap between the top two and the rest of the field — but maiden races on dirt can always throw a curveball.

win1Have RespectML 3/1

Have Respect carries the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 82.86 — a full 24 points clear of the next horse — and Robert P. Tiller has two runners in this race, which often signals stable confidence. Despite no career wins (this is a maiden race, so that's expected), the rating edge here is hard to ignore in a short five-furlong sprint where early speed and readiness are everything. At 3/1 on the morning line, Christoff Douglas gets a live mount with real upside.

place2From Time to TimeML 2/1

From Time to Time brings the best average speed figure in the field at 55, trained by the powerful Mark E. Casse operation, which consistently ranks among Woodbine's elite barns for maiden performance. The 2/1 morning line makes this the public's choice, but our rating of 58.33 suggests there may be a gap between market price and true edge — a solid place ticket play underneath Have Respect.

show3Agent ScarletML 7/2

Agent Scarlet is the second Tiller runner in the race and comes in without a recorded average speed figure, suggesting limited or lightly raced form — but double-barrel Tiller entries at similar odds deserve respect. At 7/2 with a rating of 55.83, Fraser Aebly gets the call, and the barn's presence in the exacta makes this worth including in exotics for show coverage.

Race 2

7:42 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A fascinating allowance optional claiming mile on the turf where the morning-line favorite is not the highest-rated horse — Perfectworks and Pipers Reign both eclipse Teleport in TrackWiz ratings despite longer odds, setting up a potential overlay situation.

win5PerfectworksML 5/2

Perfectworks is the top-rated horse in this field at 83.68 despite going off at 5/2, meaning the market undervalues her relative to TrackWiz's model. Trained by Kelly L. Callaghan and ridden by David Moran, she's logged a career win rate of 11% and carries an average speed figure of 53 — respectable for this level. In an allowance optional claiming spot on the turf, class-consistent horses tend to deliver, and Perfectworks fits that profile cleanly.

place6Pipers ReignML 6/1

Pipers Reign is the value angle here, posted at 6/1 on the morning line while carrying a TrackWiz rating of 82.71 — essentially a coin flip with the top pick on overall merit. The career win rate of 33% is the highest in the field and a genuine standout number, suggesting this horse knows how to close the deal. Jockey Keveh Nicholls gets a live runner with trainer Ronald H. Sadler, and at 6/1, the place price should be generous.

show1AdirML 4/1

Adir checks in at 4/1 with a career win rate of 33% — tied for best in the field — and the Casse-Hernandez combination is one of the most potent at Woodbine. The rating of 60.14 puts him third in the field, but the win percentage tells you this horse has been competitive when fit and ready. He's worth including in exacta and trifecta coverage as a deeper play.

Race 3

8:17 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

The claiming route on dirt is headlined by a clear TrackWiz standout in Tan Toast, but Dixie Doll at double-digit odds gives bettors a tasty longshot angle in a nine-horse field with wide pace scenarios.

win2Tan ToastML 3/1

Tan Toast leads this field with a TrackWiz rating of 84.34 and a career win rate of 25% — one of the highest in this claiming group — under trainer Harold Ladouceur and jockey Jose Luis Campos. The average speed figure of 54 is solid for a 1 1/16-mile dirt route, and at 3/1 on the morning line, the price is fair without being a rip-off. In claiming routes, horses with proven win rates at 25% tend to deliver value, and Tan Toast looks like the class of the field.

place8Dixie DollML 12/1

Dixie Doll is the value play in this race, sporting a 73.96 TrackWiz rating — second best in the field — while opening at a generous 12/1 on the morning line. A career win rate of 16% shows she's competitive against this level, and trainer Orane Scott with jockey Wilbert Gobay could be flying under the radar. This is exactly the type of horse to include in exactas and trifectas; if the pace sets up, the price alone makes her worth taking a shot on for the place.

show6Reload EhML 4/1

Reload Eh posts a TrackWiz rating of 63.35 and lands at 4/1 on the morning line, giving trainer Danny Yu a legitimate contender in the bottom half of the field. The 6% career win rate is modest, but in a nine-horse claiming field where pace can get messy, a horse with a clean trip from post six could sneak into the trifecta at a reasonable price.

Our three free races today span both surfaces and multiple conditions levels, giving you a solid early read on the card. On the dirt, Have Respect (3/1 morning line, 82.86 TrackWiz rating) opens the day in a 5-furlong Maiden Special Weight, while Tan Toast (3/1, 84.34) looks like the one to beat in the Race 3 claiming route at 1 1/16 miles. On the turf, Perfectworks (5/2, 83.68) draws our attention in the Race 2 Allowance Optional Claiming mile — a step-up spot that looks well within reach based on our pace projections.

With the ground firm and the turf playing fast in this weather, don't sleep on pace shape in the turf routes. Clean trips figure to be rewarded, and our free picks are positioned to get them.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

8:51 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A massive 14-horse maiden claiming field on the turf creates chaos at the top — but Night Striker's dominant TrackWiz rating stands well above the pack, making this look like a two-horse race for the win between Night Striker and Sanhedrin.

win8Night StrikerML 3/1

Night Striker is the clear top pick here with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — the highest in the field by more than 14 points — and heads in at a fair 3/1 morning line. Trainer Abraham R. Katryan sends this horse out with jockey Austin Adams, and in a maiden turf field this deep, having a horse that grades out this far ahead of the field is a meaningful edge. With every runner carrying a 0% career win rate, the ratings model becomes especially valuable, and Night Striker's score is simply a standout.

place1Border FoxML 4/1

Border Fox earns a 72.70 TrackWiz rating under the Joe S. Russo barn, one of the more active Woodbine stables, and gets Jalon L. Samuel in the irons from the rail. Russo also enters A Real War Story in this race, but Border Fox is clearly the stable's preferred runner based on ratings. At 4/1 on the morning line, the place price should be attractive in a field this wide.

show9SanhedrinML 7/2

Sanhedrin comes in at 7/2 morning-line odds with a solid 67.20 TrackWiz rating, third-best in this field, and gets Fraser Aebly aboard for the Tino Attard barn. In a 14-horse turf maiden, pace scenarios get complicated and closers can find lanes — Sanhedrin fits as a horse worth including in trifecta tickets as a hedge underneath the top two selections.

Race 5

9:24 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A ten-horse turf claiming route where Big Imagination holds the top rating but Lady Izzy and Top of D Mountain are close enough to make this a real three-way battle — pace and post position will matter on the Woodbine turf.

win5Big ImaginationML 4/1

Big Imagination leads TrackWiz's model with a rating of 85.62 and carries a career win rate of 25% — one of the best marks in this field. Luis R. Reyes rides for trainer Kerron Palmer, and an average speed figure of 54 on turf at 1 1/16 miles tells you this horse has been posting consistent numbers. The 4/1 morning line is workable, and the combination of top rating plus proven win rate makes this the most defensible pick on the card.

place1Lady IzzyML 3/1

Lady Izzy opens as the 3/1 morning-line choice from the rail, backed by a TrackWiz rating of 78.30 and the experienced Sid C. Attard barn with Fraser Aebly up. An 8% career win rate is modest, but she's clearly well-regarded by the market, and in a turf field where pace from the inside post can be favorable, she could press or track and be right there late.

show10Top of D MountainML 8/1

Top of D Mountain is a sneaky show play at 8/1 on the morning line — the third-highest TrackWiz rating in the race at 77.40 despite going off at a longshot price. Trainer Don Pleterski sends this horse out with a 6% career win rate and an average speed of 54, and the rating gap between Top of D Mountain and the next contender is meaningful. In turf claiming races, horses like this — quality figures at big prices — make ideal trifecta insurance.

Race 6

9:54 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Shining Silver comes in as the prohibitive morning-line favorite, but Sobiech's TrackWiz rating tells a very different story — this could be a prime overlay spot for players willing to trust the numbers over the public.

win2SobiechML 5/1

Sobiech tops the field with a TrackWiz rating of 84.17 while opening at 5/1 on the morning line — a significant discrepancy that immediately flags this as a potential overlay. Trained by Dale A. Powell with Dane Nelson riding, Sobiech carries a career win rate of 14% and an average speed figure of 54 in a 6.5-furlong dirt sprint where pace and early position are critical. When the top-rated horse in a claiming field is also one of the longer-priced horses, that's a spot TrackWiz analysis loves to target.

place7Arya's QuestML 3/1

Arya's Quest rates second in this field at 65.95 with a career win rate of 16% and an average speed figure of 54, giving Pietro Moran a live mount from a field-strong Michael P. De Paulo barn entry. The 3/1 morning line is fair, and in a short dirt sprint, this horse's consistent figures make her a reliable place candidate underneath the top selection.

show6Shining SilverML 9/5

Shining Silver is the public's favorite at 9/5 with a 25% career win rate — the best in this field — and Rafael Manuel Hernandez is a Woodbine staple who can handle chalk pressure. The TrackWiz rating of 62.22 actually puts her third in the field behind Sobiech and Arya's Quest, which is the warning sign here, but a 25% win rate earns show consideration in any field. She's a safe show ticket inclusion but may be overlayed for win purposes.

Race 7

10:23 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A seven-furlong maiden claiming sprint on dirt where the TrackWiz model flips the morning line on its head — That's a Fact rates highest at 8/1 while Miss Brit goes off as the 2/1 favorite despite a lower score.

win7That's a FactML 8/1

That's a Fact is the standout overlay in this race — top-rated by TrackWiz at 79.79 but opening at 8/1 on the morning line, well behind the public's 2/1 favorite. Eswan Flores gets the call for trainer Nicholas Nosowenko, and with an average speed figure of 53 in a seven-furlong dirt sprint, this horse has the numbers to compete. In maiden claiming races, when the model identifies a horse this far out of line with the market, it's worth taking seriously — the 8/1 price could look very generous at first call.

place1Malibu BettyML 5/2

Malibu Betty opens as the co-second choice at 5/2 with a strong TrackWiz rating of 77.12 — second best in the field — and Carlos Grant sends her out with Xarel Forde from the rail. An average speed figure of 53 and a gate draw that allows for a clean trip make Malibu Betty a logical place horse; she's clearly well-prepared for this level, and the 5/2 morning line suggests plenty of market respect.

show6Miss BritML 2/1

Miss Brit is the public favorite at 2/1 but holds a TrackWiz rating of 58.24 — well below the top two selections — with Daisuke Fukumoto in the irons for trainer Barbara J. Minshall. The public price likely reflects trainer form or workout data we may not fully capture in the model, so she merits show coverage. In a maiden claiming field where upsets happen, keeping her in trifecta bets as a hedge makes sense despite the rating lag.

Race 8

10:52 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

The closer of the card on Woodbine turf is straightforward at the top — Chocolatecroissant's dominant rating makes this look like a win-or-lose-everything race for the Kevin Attard barn, with Chervonaruta and Strawberry World fighting for the minor awards.

win4ChocolatecroissantML 7/5

Chocolatecroissant leads every meaningful metric in this field — a TrackWiz rating of 89.42, the top mark on the entire card, and a 7/5 morning line that suggests the public agrees. Pietro Moran rides for Kevin Attard, a trainer who is consistently among Woodbine's top conditioners, and an average speed figure of 53 on turf is solid for maiden claiming company. Yes, 7/5 isn't a price to chase, but when the gap between the top-rated horse and the next competitor is this wide, the goal is winning the bet — not maximizing odds.

place1ChervonarutaML 7/2

Chervonaruta is the logical main competition with a TrackWiz rating of 83.05 — second best in the field — at a morning line of 7/2. Jason Hoyte takes the mount for Michael P. De Paulo, a stable with multiple runners tonight, and the average speed figure of 53 matches up well with the surface and distance. If Chocolatecroissant were to encounter any trouble in a nine-horse turf field, Chervonaruta is the horse most likely to capitalize.

show7Strawberry WorldML 8/1

Strawberry World checks in at 8/1 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 75.45 — third best in this race — under trainer Ryan A. Jones and jockey Dane Nelson. An average speed figure of 53 shows competitive form, and in a maiden turf mile where pace can string out the field, a horse with this rating at 8/1 is an ideal show and trifecta play. The price alone justifies inclusion in any exotic wager structure tonight.

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Clear weather, a full eight-race card, and legitimate plays from top to bottom — Woodbine is set up well today. Have Respect, Perfectworks, and Tan Toast headline the free selections, with Chocolatecroissant the marquee name in the premium half. Get the full card analysis, pace maps, and exotic breakdowns with a TrackWiz subscription — details at /pricing. Good luck out there.

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