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Woodbine Picks & Predictions — September 20, 2026

September 20, 202610 racesAll Woodbine picks

It's a beautiful early-autumn Sunday at Woodbine — 66°F under partly cloudy skies, the kind of afternoon that keeps the turf course playing fair and the crowds happy. Ten races are on the docket today, and the card leans heavily toward the grass, with six turf routes and sprints scattered across the afternoon.

The mix of conditions is interesting: maiden claimers to open things up, a pair of Starter Allowances on the turf sandwiching the card's midpoint, and a pair of Allowance Optional Claiming races closing things out in Races 9 and 10. Plenty of angles to work across the full card.

TrackWiz analysis has flagged strong confidence plays throughout, with ratings topping 87 in four separate races — so there's real opportunity here whether you're playing a quick Pick 3 or building out a late-Pick-4 ticket.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:00 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A maiden claiming opener on the dirt that splits cleanly between two standout ratings and a mid-pack cluster — the top of the TrackWiz sheet is where the action is, but 3/1 money on a maiden is never a sure thing.

win6Fog d'OroML 3/1

Fog d'Oro carries the field's top TrackWiz rating at 87.08 and David Moran gets the call — a strong pairing on a card where connections matter. Posted at 3/1 on the morning line, this is one of those spots where the public price and the model align, suggesting genuine form rather than hype. In a maiden field where career win percentages are uniformly zero, the separation in ratings tells the real story, and Fog d'Oro has a clear edge at the top.

place2Audi's WorldML EVN

Audi's World is the morning-line favorite at even money, and a TrackWiz rating of 74.86 backs up that public confidence. Pietro Moran takes the mount, and while the even-money tag makes this tough to play on top for value, landing in the exacta underneath Fog d'Oro is the practical play. The rating gap between these two (87 vs. 74) suggests Audi's World is a solid place prospect rather than the top choice.

show4Knockin GhostML 4/1

Knockin Ghost draws interest as a show play at 4/1 — a 55.0 rating with no listed average speed figure suggests this is a first-time starter or a horse with limited public data, which can cut either way. Trainer Krista Cole is worth watching here; unknown quantities in maiden claimers occasionally surprise, and the 4/1 morning line implies the barn has some confidence. Including Knockin Ghost in trifectas is a reasonable hedge given the uncertainty around a horse without a published speed figure.

Race 2

5:32 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

A turf starter allowance with a clear top two on the TrackWiz sheet, but a wide-open pace scenario and a 30% career winner in the mix make this more competitive than the morning line suggests.

win3Twisting PistonsML 3/1

Twisting Pistons tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and comes in at a playable 3/1 morning line with Ryan Munger up for conditioner Sid C. Attard. The 20% career win rate is respectable in this company, and Attard is a trainer who tends to have his horses ready to fire in starter allowance spots. At a mile on the turf, pace figures to be genuine, and Twisting Pistons' rating gap over the rest of the field is wide enough to justify topping the ticket.

place4Purrfect GirlML 2/1

Purrfect Girl is the morning-line favorite at 2/1, and her 28% career win percentage is the second-best in the field — that's a horse who knows how to get to the wire. Rafael Manuel Hernandez, one of Woodbine's more active riders, takes the reins for trainer Michael Wright Jr. The 2/1 price compresses the win value, but she's a logical place anchor and a safe exotic inclusion.

show2Talent ShowML 6/1

Talent Show at 6/1 is a legitimately interesting show play — 30% career win rate leads the entire field, which is a number that doesn't go unnoticed. Trainer Debra Rombis sends her out with Jeffrey Ian Alderson, and that career win percentage suggests a horse that converts at an above-average clip when pointed right. The rating of 74.36 is third-best in the field, and at 6/1, there's real overlay potential if the pace sets up kindly.

Race 3

6:07 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Five first-time starters with no speed figures make this a genuine guessing game, but Verge brings the only published speed number in the field — and that lone data point carries serious weight.

win6VergeML 2/1

Verge is our top selection at 2/1, and while that's the shortest price among a bunch of unknowns, the reasoning is sound — she's the only horse in this MSW sprint with a published average speed figure (55), giving trainer Barbara J. Minshall's filly a tangible edge in measured form. Daisuke Fukumoto takes the mount, and the 58.33 TrackWiz rating leads the field, albeit narrowly. In maiden special weight sprints loaded with unknowns, any legitimate speed figure is a major differentiator.

place3Sign the PapersML 5/2

Sign the Papers is an intriguing place play at 5/2 — trainer Robert P. Tiller sends out two horses in this race (also Townline Bertie), which suggests he likes his chances with at least one of them. The 57.5 rating slots in at second-best in the field, and Rafael Manuel Hernandez is a winning jockey choice for any barn wanting to be competitive. With no speed figures across most of the field, the Tiller barn's experience shipping runners into this condition is a genuine angle.

show2Townline BertieML 7/2

Townline Bertie is the other Tiller runner at 7/2, and there's a real case that the barn's second string here might be its better shot — trainers sometimes shade their intentions through jockey choices, and Fraser Aebly is a capable pilot. The 55.83 rating is third in the field, and in a race this wide open, having two Tiller horses in the mix means at least one is likely pointed correctly. A show ticket on Townline Bertie in trifectas is prudent given the barn's dual presence.

Three races are open to all readers today, and they give you a solid foundation to work from. The card kicks off with Fog d'Oro in Race 1, a Maiden Claimer going 1 1/16 miles on dirt — a morning line of 3/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 gives this one real substance at a fair price. Race 2 shifts to the turf for a Starter Allowance mile, where Twisting Pistons matches that same 87.08 rating at an identical 3/1 morning line — two strong consecutive plays to open the afternoon. Race 3 is a short Maiden Special Weight dash at 5½ furlongs on dirt, and while Verge carries a lower rating at 58.33, the 2/1 chalk tag tells you the market agrees on the favorite — approach with eyes open.

The dirt-to-turf swing from Race 1 to Race 2 is worth noting: if the turf is playing especially fast today, Twisting Pistons could be a particularly live overlay. Keep that surface context in mind as early results come in.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:39 PM EDT

Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

An optional claimer on the turf where the morning-line favorite is NOT the TrackWiz top pick — Next Pitch at 4/1 holds the highest rating in a race where the 2/1 chalk looks vulnerable on the numbers.

win3Next PitchML 4/1

Next Pitch tops the TrackWiz sheet at 85.62 despite going off at 4/1 — that's the kind of overlay situation worth targeting. Ryan Munger gets the call for trainer John P. LeBlanc Jr., and an average speed figure of 55 is competitive in this optional claiming mile on the turf. A 16% career win rate isn't flashy, but in a field where the ratings drop sharply below the top two, Next Pitch has a clear lane to take this.

place6Southern StyleML 5/2

Southern Style is nearly as strong as the win pick at a TrackWiz rating of 84.89, and Pietro Moran riding for Gail Cox is a solid combination. The 13% career win rate is the lowest among the top contenders, but this is a horse that shows up consistently enough to be a place stalwart. At 5/2, she's priced close to fair value — she belongs in the exacta with Next Pitch in both orders.

show2Wild CardML 3/1

Wild Card at 3/1 makes sense as the show piece of the puzzle — a 75.3 rating and 14% career win rate for trainer Julia Carey, with Fraser Aebly up. The speed figure of 54 is competitive, and at 3/1, this is a horse that won't dramatically hurt an exacta payout if you're keying the top two. Worth including in trifecta exotics as a reliable closer type in a race that could produce a mild pace.

Race 5

7:11 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden optional claimer on dirt where one horse's TrackWiz rating nearly doubles the field average — Eubank at 4/1 is a standout in a race that otherwise offers thin form lines.

win4EubankML 4/1

Eubank's TrackWiz rating of 85.62 is dominant in this field — the next-closest horse (Munnystruck) sits at 66.77, a gap of nearly 19 points. Emma-Jayne Wilson, one of Woodbine's most accomplished riders, gets the call for trainer Terry Brooker, and the 54 average speed figure gives this maiden some legitimate credentials. At 4/1, this is a horse the model strongly prefers and the public underrates — that's a value spot worth pressing.

place6MunnystruckML 2/1

Munnystruck at 2/1 is the public's choice, and the 66.77 rating and 54 average speed figure for trainer Blair Miller back up that confidence. Rafael Manuel Hernandez is a top jockey who rarely gets handed poor mounts, so the connections are worth respecting. The concern is that 2/1 is a skinny price in a maiden optional claimer where the TrackWiz model has another horse rated 19 points higher — fade to place and let Eubank do the heavy lifting on top.

show1Bongino WarriorML 3/1

Bongino Warrior at 3/1 rounds out the show position with a 49.34 rating and an average speed figure of 52 for trainer Anthony Husbands. Juan Crawford takes the mount, and in a six-horse maiden field, you only need three to land — Bongino Warrior has enough on paper to stay involved through the stretch. At 3/1, including him in trifecta coverage is a straightforward call.

Race 6

7:43 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

The TrackWiz sheet is decisive here — Chairman Bob's 87.81 rating sits a full 10 points clear of the field in a turf starter allowance where the morning-line favorite (Compton at 2/1) is only the third-rated runner.

win1Chairman BobML 5/2

Chairman Bob holds the field's top rating at 87.81 and a 20% career win rate in what looks like a prime spot for trainer Michael Wright Jr. Christoff Douglas takes the mount, and the 54 average speed figure is right in range for a one-mile turf starter allowance. The 5/2 morning line is a fair price for the model's top-rated runner, and the disconnect between Chairman Bob's rating and the public's preference for Compton creates real overlay value here.

place6Graffiti WriterML 3/1

Graffiti Writer at 3/1 is a legitimate main threat with a 77.35 rating and a 22% career win rate — one of the stronger win percentages in the field. Steven Chircop trains, Rafael Manuel Hernandez rides, and that's a combination that shows up in winners' circles at Woodbine with regularity. An average speed figure of 52 is slightly behind the top two, but the career record suggests this is a horse that runs its race consistently.

show7ComptonML 2/1

Compton is the public's 2/1 favorite, which makes him an interesting show play — the crowd has him pegged as a top choice but our analysis prefers Chairman Bob on the numbers. With a 61.18 rating and 22% career win rate for trainer Darwin Banach, Compton isn't without merit; Fraser Aebly is a capable handler. Using him on the show line while fading him on top is a sensible way to play the market inefficiency here.

Race 7

8:16 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Turf

Hard Right enters this turf maiden sprint as a massive ratings standout — an 87.81 score in a field where the second-best rated runner checks in at 71.35 makes this look like a prime win spot on paper.

win1Hard RightML 5/2

Hard Right's 87.81 TrackWiz rating towers over this maiden field, with trainer David Cotey and jockey Skye Chernetz combining for what looks like a confident runner on the turf. The 54 average speed figure is legitimate, and a 5/2 morning line suggests the market sees some of what the model sees — but doesn't fully reflect the magnitude of the ratings edge. In a maiden special weight where every horse is winless, edges in measurable data loom large, and Hard Right has the clearest one.

place4Auntie's BambinoML 7/2

Auntie's Bambino at 7/2 is the class of the rest of the field at a 71.35 TrackWiz rating — a full 13 points ahead of the next rival. Trainer Louis Capi sends her out with Xarel Forde, and the 54 average speed figure matches the pace level of the likely winner. If Hard Right gets in trouble or faces a pace duel, Auntie's Bambino is best positioned to capitalize and definitely belongs in the exacta.

show3Cyclone TaylorML 2/1

Cyclone Taylor at 2/1 is the morning-line second choice, and Kevin Attard — one of Woodbine's sharpest conditioners — has Pietro Moran in the irons. The 55 average speed figure actually tops the field, and the 58.33 rating, while third on the sheet, still gives this runner real credentials. The concern is that 2/1 undervalues the competition above him on the rating scale — but as a show horse or trifecta filler, Cyclone Taylor's raw speed number is worth respecting.

Race 8

8:50 PM EDT

Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Flyonbye dominates the TrackWiz sheet in this optional claimer, but Fine Style and Zio Cavallo run nearly identical ratings just underneath — the race for second and third could be the real handicapping puzzle.

win1FlyonbyeML 5/2

Flyonbye checks in at 87.81 — the clear top rating in the field — and Pietro Moran takes the call for trainer Michael P. De Paulo in what looks like a prime spot. The 5/2 morning line is competitive without being prohibitive, and an average speed figure of 54 is right on pace for a six-furlong dirt optional claimer. At 11% career win rate, Flyonbye isn't a serial winner, but the ratings advantage in this particular field is significant enough to back confidently.

place3Zio CavalloML 7/2

Zio Cavallo brings a 25% career win rate that leads the field — this is a horse that knows how to convert. Trained by Sid Attard and ridden by Fraser Aebly, the connections are among the more reliable at the meet, and the 65.06 TrackWiz rating puts him squarely in the place conversation. A 55 average speed figure matches up well with the pace likely to be set in this sprint, making him a natural exacta partner under Flyonbye.

show2Fine StyleML 3/1

Fine Style at 3/1 has the field's top average speed figure at 56, which is worth noting in a six-furlong dirt sprint where pure early velocity can be decisive. Trainer Angus Buntain sends him out with Jeffrey Ian Alderson, and the 14% career win rate is modest but functional. The ratings cluster between Fine Style and Zio Cavallo is extremely tight (64.83 vs. 65.06), so flipping these two in exactas and trifectas is a smart exotic play.

Race 9

9:27 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Yoshii's 80% career win rate is a jaw-dropping number that demands attention, but Kekoa's dominant TrackWiz rating in an allowance optional claiming turf mile sets up a fascinating clash between raw winning percentage and model-driven form.

win2KekoaML 5/2

Kekoa tops the TrackWiz sheet at 87.81 — the highest rating in this five-horse field — and Fraser Aebly gets the mount for trainer Catherine Day Phillips, a conditioner who doesn't miss when she has horses like this primed. A 26% career win rate and an average speed figure of 55 check all the boxes for a turf mile allowance, and at 5/2 on the morning line, the price is reasonable for the model's top-rated runner. This is TrackWiz's most confident play of this race.

place1YoshiiML 6/1

Yoshii's 80% career win rate is extraordinary and not something you can simply ignore — six starts, nearly all wins, suggests a horse of genuine talent pointing back in a positive direction. Christoff Douglas rides for trainer Dale Desruisseaux, and the 70.83 TrackWiz rating is second in the field. The 6/1 morning line looks like legitimate value for a horse with that kind of career conversion rate — this is a strong place play and a potential overlay worth exploring on top as well.

show5CiunasML 7/2

Ciunas at 7/2 carries a 50% career win rate — second only to Yoshii in this field — and Pietro Moran takes the mount for trainer Rachel Halden in what looks like a well-spotted entry. The 65.73 TrackWiz rating is third-best, and an average speed figure of 54 keeps this runner in range on pace. In a short, five-horse field, show tickets lose much of their value, but Ciunas belongs in trifecta coverage given that career winning percentage.

Race 10

10:02 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Turf

The biggest field of the day — ten runners in a turf allowance optional claimer at six furlongs — and Artemus Citylimits stands alone at the top of the ratings while Fracen Macho lurks as the best value play on the board.

win6Artemus CitylimitsML 5/2

Artemus Citylimits holds the field's top TrackWiz rating at 84.6 and the highest average speed figure in the race at 57 — that's a horse who has been running fast and rating out well. Romero Ramsay Maragh gets the call for trainer Audrey Cheung, and a 20% career win rate in a 10-horse field is respectable. At 5/2, this is a fair market price for the model's top selection, and the speed figure edge in a six-furlong turf sprint is a meaningful physical advantage.

place9Fracen MachoML 8/1

Fracen Macho is the place pick at 8/1 — and that's where the real value lives in this race. A TrackWiz rating of 79.79 is second in the field, and a 16% career win rate is right in range for this class. Trainer William Tharrenos sends him out with Keveh Nicholls, and an average speed figure of 55 keeps this runner competitive pace-wise in what could be a fast early fraction. The gap between 8/1 and the model's second-highest rating is a textbook overlay situation.

show1DewolfML 3/1

Dewolf at 3/1 makes sense as the show piece in this large field — Kevin Attard conditions and Fraser Aebly rides, and that's a trainer-jockey combination that routinely delivers at Woodbine. A 64.58 TrackWiz rating is third-best in the field, and a 16% career win rate with an average speed figure of 55 gives this runner a legitimate profile. In a 10-horse turf sprint, using Dewolf on the show line in trifectas behind Artemus Citylimits and Fracen Macho offers solid coverage.

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Bottom line: Woodbine is serving up a well-structured 10-race card on a near-perfect fall afternoon. Fog d'Oro and Twisting Pistons are the free-play cornerstones to build around early, and Chairman Bob headlines a premium slate with legitimate top-of-card potential. The full card analysis — pace scenarios, exotic breakdowns, and multi-race strategies — is available to TrackWiz subscribers. Don't play the back half blind.

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