Woodbine Picks & Predictions — September 19, 2026

Hurricane Amelia rates second in this field at 63.61 under Daisuke Fukumoto for Barbara J. Minshall — a trainer who keeps her horses fit deep into the Woodbine meet. She carries a significant rating advantage over the rest of the field outside of Lita Marie, and in a maiden race at a route distance, closing runners often find their way into the exacta.

Lotta Gems draws the 2/1 morning-line favoritism that our ratings don't fully justify — she checks in third at 56.23 — but heavy public support and Romero Ramsay Maragh in the irons make her impossible to leave off the ticket. If Lita Marie gets beat, Lotta Gems is the most likely beneficiary given her crowd backing.

Instant Response is the most interesting number on the board at 8/1 morning line — our ratings have her second at 71.92, a full four points ahead of Zucchero in third. Trainer Daniel S. Harvey has Jodeien Anderson aboard, and horses with this kind of rating-to-odds gap in claiming races tend to outperform their morning line price. She's our value play of the race.

Zucchero draws the morning-line favoritism at 2/1 for Kevin Attard and Pietro Moran — one of the stronger trainer-jockey combinations at Woodbine — and posts a 67.92 TrackWiz rating along with an 11% career win rate. He's the one most likely to factor if Padraig stumbles, and the Attard-Moran combo alone is enough to keep him on any exotic ticket.

Regal Moment brings the most eye-catching career win percentage in the field at 33% and holds a solid 75.18 TrackWiz rating with Fraser Aebly riding for Stuart C. Simon. She's been a consistent performer and the 5/2 morning line reflects that — she's the natural backup horse and the most likely to be standing in the winner's circle if Sheshimaintenance doesn't fire.

War Signal rates third in the field at 62.71 for trainer Mark E. Casse with Sahin Civaci aboard, and his 20% career win rate adds credibility to his inclusion on the ticket. At 6/1, there's some value here compared to the top two, and Casse runners on the Woodbine turf are always worth respecting late in the meet.

Refinement checks in at 79.57 on our ratings and brings a 25% career win rate to a field where consistency matters. Romero Ramsay Maragh takes the mount for Mark E. Casse — a trainer who runs deep into the Woodbine turf season with sharp horses — and at 4/1 she offers genuine each-way value as the second choice in our analysis.

Mobula sits third on our ratings at 77.52 with a 15% career win rate and leads the field in average speed figure at 55. Pietro Moran is a strong booking for trainer Audrey Cheung, and at 6/1 morning line, a horse with this speed profile in a six-furlong turf sprint is exactly the type that can pop up on the board and reward show bettors.

Headspin is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 for Kevin Attard and Pietro Moran — one of the most reliable trainer-jockey pairings at Woodbine — and rates second on our board at 69.14. Attard knows how to have a maiden ready on debut or near debut, and the fact that the public is making this horse the favorite over our top pick creates an interesting dynamic worth watching at the windows.

Once Upon a Kiss holds a 62.87 TrackWiz rating and matches Money Heist's average speed of 55 — the best in the field. Rafael Manuel Hernandez is an underrated booking here for trainer Blair A. Miller, and at 8/1 morning line this filly offers real value in exotics for bettors looking to play deeper in the trifecta.

Without Cause rates third on our board at 69.68 but posts the joint-best average speed figure in the race at 56, alongside Lost and Found and Epic Style. Rafael Manuel Hernandez has the call for Mark E. Casse, a trainer who excels in stakes company at Woodbine, and a 21% career win rate says this horse competes consistently at a high level.

Lost and Found carries a massive 41% career win rate — actually edging Z Z's in that department — and ties for the highest average speed figure in the field at 57. Romero Ramsay Maragh rides for Brittany T. Russell, and at 8/1 morning line, a horse with this win rate and speed profile in a stakes field has to be included in any serious exotic play.

Maycocks Bay has the crowd on her side at 3/5 morning line and a 28% career win rate that backs up the public confidence. Pietro Moran rides for Michael Stidham, and even though our ratings have William T ahead, the 66.18 rating and strong connections mean Maycocks Bay landing a check is close to a certainty in this short field.

Sedburys Ghost is a curious profile — a 46.18 TrackWiz rating and 6/1 morning line suggest a race who's here to complete the field, but Romero Ramsay Maragh aboard for Barbara J. Minshall gives this horse a jockey upgrade that could matter in a five-horse stakes where every position pays. In a thin field, show tickets get cashed more often than people remember.

Pharoah's Affair rates second on our board at 81.36 with Rafael Manuel Hernandez aboard for Katerina Vassilieva, and at 4/1 morning line she represents genuine each-way value. Her 20% career win rate is consistent with a horse that competes at a high level without always closing the deal, which is exactly the profile of a reliable exacta partner.

Nanina checks in third on our ratings at 75.91 and brings a 25% career win rate that's among the better marks in this field. Ryan Munger rides for the powerful Josie Carroll barn, and at 8/1 morning line in a full field, a horse with this rating and that win percentage is exactly the type that sneaks into the show slot while bettors are focused on the top two.

Beautiful Things rates second on our board at 63.3 for Kevin Attard with Fraser Aebly riding — and at 12/1 morning line, this is the legitimate longshot angle on the place end of the ticket. Attard is a trainer who places horses well in maiden company, and a 63.3 rating in a field where much of the bottom half carries no speed figures at all gives Beautiful Things a real edge in the connect-the-dots game.

Tossing carries the 5/2 morning-line favoritism that suggests public confidence, and she backs it up with the joint-highest average speed figure in the field at 58 — the best single number on today's turf card. Rafael Manuel Hernandez rides for the powerful Mark E. Casse stable, and while our ratings have her third at 57.5, the speed and connections make her impossible to leave out of any ticket.