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Woodbine Picks & Predictions — September 19, 2026

September 19, 202611 racesAll Woodbine picks

Woodbine rolls out an 11-race card this Saturday, September 19, and the conditions are about as close to ideal as you'll find this deep into the fall meet. Overcast skies and a crisp 64°F keep things comfortable — no baking heat to flatten front-runners, no monsoon to wash out the turf. The Woodbine turf course figures to be firm and fair, which is exactly the kind of surface that rewards horses with genuine class rather than fluky form.

Today's card has a little something for everyone: maiden openers to kick things off, a pair of stakes races in Races 8 and 9 to anchor the afternoon, and a handful of allowance spots where TrackWiz analysis is flagging some serious overlay opportunities. Eleven races, two stakes, and at least a few prices worth getting excited about. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:00 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Turf

A maiden turf sprint with ratings bunched at the top — three horses within two points of each other make this a genuine photo-finish situation with no standout dominator.

win5Aloha KittyML 5/2

Aloha Kitty earns our top TrackWiz rating in this field at 57.5 and posts the highest average speed figure among her rivals at 55, a tick above the cluster at 53. Emma-Jayne Wilson is one of the savviest riders at Woodbine and knows how to find a spot on the turf. In a wide-open maiden field where every horse is winless, that combination of top rating and edge in average speed is enough to make Aloha Kitty the one to beat at a fair 5/2 morning line.

place2Molly's CornerML 8/1

Molly's Corner holds the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the race at 57.29 — essentially a dead heat with Aloha Kitty on paper. At 8/1 on the morning line, Jalon L. Samuel gets a live long-price ticket here, and her rating suggests she belongs right in the thick of it even if she can't quite get up to win.

show1Clockwork AngelML 3/1

Clockwork Angel checks in third on our ratings at 56.67 and drew the rail under Pietro Moran, a jockey who knows how to use post position one advantageously on the turf. With a 3/1 morning line and a TrackWiz figure that separates her from the lower half of this field, she's a reasonable exotic anchor for show and trifecta purposes.

Race 2

5:33 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Two high-powered ratings at the top of this dirt claiming field pull away from the rest of the pack — but the morning line says value lives against the top number, making pace and positioning the deciding factor.

win7WaheelaML 2/1

Waheela sits atop the TrackWiz ratings at an impressive 88.54 — the widest gap between a top pick and the rest of the field we see all day in the early races. Fraser Aebly gets the call, and he's been reliable on Woodbine's main track. At 2/1 on the morning line, this isn't a high-value overlay, but when a horse leads the field by nearly eight full rating points in a claiming race, you respect the number.

place3DjoserML 5/2

Djoser comes in second on our ratings at 80.96 with Prayven Badrie aboard, and at 5/2 he's priced close to the favorite. His career win rate of 9% isn't flashy, but in a dirt claiming affair where the top two horses are clearly separated from the pack, Djoser looks like the most natural horse to run second behind Waheela.

show4Interim AnalysisML 3/1

Interim Analysis posts a strong 78.28 TrackWiz rating and edges out the competition with a slightly better average speed figure of 54. Daisuke Fukumoto takes the mount for trainer Zeljko Krcmar, and at 3/1 morning line, this horse offers solid show value in a race where the top three in our ratings have a clear edge over the bottom half of the field.

Race 3

6:10 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Lita Marie's TrackWiz rating towers over this maiden dirt field, but her morning line price of 6/1 suggests the crowd isn't fully sold — that disconnect between rating and odds is the central storyline in Race 3.

win4Lita MarieML 6/1

Lita Marie is the standout on TrackWiz ratings with an 82.71 — more than 19 points clear of the next horse, Hurricane Amelia. Pietro Moran gets a prime mount here for trainer Hannah C. Sprenger, and the 1 1/16-mile distance on dirt suits a horse whose rating screams class edge in a maiden field. The 6/1 morning line is frankly a gift if the ratings hold up, making her not just our top pick but a legitimate value play at that price.

place5Hurricane AmeliaML 8/1

Hurricane Amelia rates second in this field at 63.61 under Daisuke Fukumoto for Barbara J. Minshall — a trainer who keeps her horses fit deep into the Woodbine meet. She carries a significant rating advantage over the rest of the field outside of Lita Marie, and in a maiden race at a route distance, closing runners often find their way into the exacta.

show6Lotta GemsML 2/1

Lotta Gems draws the 2/1 morning-line favoritism that our ratings don't fully justify — she checks in third at 56.23 — but heavy public support and Romero Ramsay Maragh in the irons make her impossible to leave off the ticket. If Lita Marie gets beat, Lotta Gems is the most likely beneficiary given her crowd backing.

The first three races are on the house, and we're not complaining about the lineup. Aloha Kitty opens the day on the turf at 6½ furlongs — a maiden optional claimer where her morning line of 5/2 feels about right given the field, and our rating of 57.5 reflects a competitive but winnable spot. In Race 2, Waheela stands out as the most confident free play on the card — an 88.54 TrackWiz rating in a 7-furlong dirt claimer puts her in a different tier than most of this field, and the 2/1 morning line is fair without being a giveaway. Then comes the most intriguing free look of the day: Lita Marie in Race 3, a maiden optional claimer going 1 1/16 miles on dirt. She's 6/1 on the morning line with an 82.71 rating — that gap between price and rating is exactly the kind of value angle we love to highlight.

One thread connecting today's early card: the dirt looks like it should favor horses that can settle and run late at classic distances, and both Waheela and Lita Marie fit that mold. Keep an eye on early pace — if the speed duels are as hot as we're projecting, closers could be coming late all afternoon.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:44 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Padraig's ratings dominance sets up a clear top choice in this dirt claiming sprint, but Instant Response lurks at a price that makes the exacta combination exceptionally interesting.

win7PadraigML 5/2

Padraig leads this field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark among any horse in Race 4 — and carries a solid 12% career win rate into a six-and-a-half-furlong dirt sprint. Eswan Flores gets the mount for Michael Wright Jr., and at 5/2 morning line, this is priced like a legitimate contender without being bet down to nothing. The combination of top rating, respectable win percentage, and a sharp jockey booking makes Padraig our clear top selection.

place6Instant ResponseML 8/1

Instant Response is the most interesting number on the board at 8/1 morning line — our ratings have her second at 71.92, a full four points ahead of Zucchero in third. Trainer Daniel S. Harvey has Jodeien Anderson aboard, and horses with this kind of rating-to-odds gap in claiming races tend to outperform their morning line price. She's our value play of the race.

show1ZuccheroML 2/1

Zucchero draws the morning-line favoritism at 2/1 for Kevin Attard and Pietro Moran — one of the stronger trainer-jockey combinations at Woodbine — and posts a 67.92 TrackWiz rating along with an 11% career win rate. He's the one most likely to factor if Padraig stumbles, and the Attard-Moran combo alone is enough to keep him on any exotic ticket.

Race 5

7:18 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Sheshimaintenance's extraordinary 42% career win rate makes her the class of this turf allowance field, and the pace scenario looks set to suit a horse that the numbers love.

win4SheshimaintenanceML 3/1

Sheshimaintenance leads our TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and owns a career win percentage of 42% — a genuinely remarkable strike rate that speaks to a horse who simply knows how to finish in front. Pietro Moran gets the call for Zeljko Krcmar, and at 3/1 morning line she's priced fairly without being squeezed. On a one-mile turf route where pace can be controlled, a horse with this win rate and top rating is as close to a confident pick as you'll find on the card.

place1Regal MomentML 5/2

Regal Moment brings the most eye-catching career win percentage in the field at 33% and holds a solid 75.18 TrackWiz rating with Fraser Aebly riding for Stuart C. Simon. She's been a consistent performer and the 5/2 morning line reflects that — she's the natural backup horse and the most likely to be standing in the winner's circle if Sheshimaintenance doesn't fire.

show2War SignalML 6/1

War Signal rates third in the field at 62.71 for trainer Mark E. Casse with Sahin Civaci aboard, and his 20% career win rate adds credibility to his inclusion on the ticket. At 6/1, there's some value here compared to the top two, and Casse runners on the Woodbine turf are always worth respecting late in the meet.

Race 6

7:52 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Turf

A nine-horse turf sprint with real depth — Celebrity Ro leads on ratings but three horses are within eight points of each other, and Refinement's pedigree of connections makes the exacta genuinely tricky to sort.

win3Celebrity RoML 2/1

Celebrity Ro tops the TrackWiz ratings at 85.08 with a 23% career win rate and a 2/1 morning-line tag that makes her the public's choice too. Ryan Munger rides for Danny Yu, and she posts the highest average speed figure among the win contenders at 55. When our top-rated horse and the crowd's pick align in a competitive turf race, it's hard to argue — Celebrity Ro is the one to beat.

place7RefinementML 4/1

Refinement checks in at 79.57 on our ratings and brings a 25% career win rate to a field where consistency matters. Romero Ramsay Maragh takes the mount for Mark E. Casse — a trainer who runs deep into the Woodbine turf season with sharp horses — and at 4/1 she offers genuine each-way value as the second choice in our analysis.

show1MobulaML 6/1

Mobula sits third on our ratings at 77.52 with a 15% career win rate and leads the field in average speed figure at 55. Pietro Moran is a strong booking for trainer Audrey Cheung, and at 6/1 morning line, a horse with this speed profile in a six-furlong turf sprint is exactly the type that can pop up on the board and reward show bettors.

Race 7

8:26 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Money Heist's rating stands out sharply in a wide-open maiden dirt sprint, but this is a full field of first-timers and lightly raced horses where the unknown can bite — pace shape will be critical.

win10Money HeistML 3/1

Money Heist tops our TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and carries an average speed figure of 55 — the joint-highest in the field alongside Once Upon a Kiss. Romero Ramsay Maragh picks up the mount for trainer John Mattine, and at 3/1 morning line this is a legitimately priced top choice. In a maiden sprint where several entrants have no published speed figures at all, a horse with a real number and a top-tier jockey booking deserves respect.

place3HeadspinML 2/1

Headspin is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 for Kevin Attard and Pietro Moran — one of the most reliable trainer-jockey pairings at Woodbine — and rates second on our board at 69.14. Attard knows how to have a maiden ready on debut or near debut, and the fact that the public is making this horse the favorite over our top pick creates an interesting dynamic worth watching at the windows.

show7Once Upon a KissML 8/1

Once Upon a Kiss holds a 62.87 TrackWiz rating and matches Money Heist's average speed of 55 — the best in the field. Rafael Manuel Hernandez is an underrated booking here for trainer Blair A. Miller, and at 8/1 morning line this filly offers real value in exotics for bettors looking to play deeper in the trifecta.

Race 8

9:01 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Turf

Miss Vyvyanne's 8/5 morning line implies public dominance, but Z Z's TrackWiz rating and a 40% career win rate suggest the odds board may be undervaluing the real threat in this turf stakes.

win5Z Z'sML 6/1

Z Z's leads our TrackWiz ratings at 82.71 with an impressive 40% career win rate — a horse who wins nearly half the time she runs is a legitimate stakes contender by any measure. Fraser Aebly rides for Josie Carroll, and at 6/1 morning line this represents real overlay value against a public that's piling onto the favorite. On a six-furlong turf course, a horse this sharp can sit just off the pace and pounce late.

place3Without CauseML 3/1

Without Cause rates third on our board at 69.68 but posts the joint-best average speed figure in the race at 56, alongside Lost and Found and Epic Style. Rafael Manuel Hernandez has the call for Mark E. Casse, a trainer who excels in stakes company at Woodbine, and a 21% career win rate says this horse competes consistently at a high level.

show7Lost and FoundML 8/1

Lost and Found carries a massive 41% career win rate — actually edging Z Z's in that department — and ties for the highest average speed figure in the field at 57. Romero Ramsay Maragh rides for Brittany T. Russell, and at 8/1 morning line, a horse with this win rate and speed profile in a stakes field has to be included in any serious exotic play.

Race 9

9:36 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Maycocks Bay draws heavy favoritism at 3/5, but William T's TrackWiz rating says this dirt stakes has more of a race in it than the odds board suggests — a classic case of numbers vs. public sentiment.

win1William TML 3/1

William T leads our TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 despite being priced at 3/1 morning line — a significant gap from Maycocks Bay's 3/5 chalk price. Fraser Aebly takes the mount for Donald C. MacRae, and a 20% career win rate in stakes company is nothing to sneeze at. Our analysis says this is the value play of the race: the horse with the top number at triple the odds of the public's choice.

place3Maycocks BayML 3/5

Maycocks Bay has the crowd on her side at 3/5 morning line and a 28% career win rate that backs up the public confidence. Pietro Moran rides for Michael Stidham, and even though our ratings have William T ahead, the 66.18 rating and strong connections mean Maycocks Bay landing a check is close to a certainty in this short field.

show4Sedburys GhostML 6/1

Sedburys Ghost is a curious profile — a 46.18 TrackWiz rating and 6/1 morning line suggest a race who's here to complete the field, but Romero Ramsay Maragh aboard for Barbara J. Minshall gives this horse a jockey upgrade that could matter in a five-horse stakes where every position pays. In a thin field, show tickets get cashed more often than people remember.

Race 10

10:08 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A full field of thirteen on the turf mile is headed by Americathegreat's dominant rating, but Pharoah's Affair lurks at 4/1 as a serious exacta threat in a race that figures to be hotly contested from the jump.

win10AmericathegreatML 2/1

Americathegreat tops the entire field with a 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark in any race on today's card — and Sahin Civaci gets the prime mount for Mark E. Casse, who sends horses out sharp in the Woodbine turf season. At 2/1 morning line in a thirteen-horse field, this isn't a steal, but when a horse leads the field by more than seven points on our ratings, the data demands respect. She's the top selection.

place7Pharoah's AffairML 4/1

Pharoah's Affair rates second on our board at 81.36 with Rafael Manuel Hernandez aboard for Katerina Vassilieva, and at 4/1 morning line she represents genuine each-way value. Her 20% career win rate is consistent with a horse that competes at a high level without always closing the deal, which is exactly the profile of a reliable exacta partner.

show2NaninaML 8/1

Nanina checks in third on our ratings at 75.91 and brings a 25% career win rate that's among the better marks in this field. Ryan Munger rides for the powerful Josie Carroll barn, and at 8/1 morning line in a full field, a horse with this rating and that win percentage is exactly the type that sneaks into the show slot while bettors are focused on the top two.

Race 11

10:38 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Turf

Alpha Gamma Girl's rating is the clear standout in this maiden turf sprint, but at 6/1 in a race where the public may gravitate toward Tossing's 5/2 morning line, there's real overlay potential at the top of our board.

win4Alpha Gamma GirlML 6/1

Alpha Gamma Girl leads our TrackWiz ratings at 82.71 and posts the highest average speed figure in the race at 57 — a full three points above the field average. Christoff Douglas has the call for Darren C. Glennon in a race where maiden first-timers with no speed figures fill out the bottom of the card. At 6/1 morning line, there's meaningful overlay here against a horse whose metrics clearly separate her from the competition.

place1Beautiful ThingsML 12/1

Beautiful Things rates second on our board at 63.3 for Kevin Attard with Fraser Aebly riding — and at 12/1 morning line, this is the legitimate longshot angle on the place end of the ticket. Attard is a trainer who places horses well in maiden company, and a 63.3 rating in a field where much of the bottom half carries no speed figures at all gives Beautiful Things a real edge in the connect-the-dots game.

show8TossingML 5/2

Tossing carries the 5/2 morning-line favoritism that suggests public confidence, and she backs it up with the joint-highest average speed figure in the field at 58 — the best single number on today's turf card. Rafael Manuel Hernandez rides for the powerful Mark E. Casse stable, and while our ratings have her third at 57.5, the speed and connections make her impossible to leave out of any ticket.

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Today's best bets start with Waheela in Race 2 (our strongest free play at 88.54) and Lita Marie as the value angle in Race 3 at 6/1. For the stakes action and the full-card exotic strategy, subscribers have everything they need waiting in the premium breakdown. Good luck at the windows — and as always, bet what you can afford to lose and enjoy the races.

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