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Woodbine Picks & Predictions — September 13, 2026

September 13, 202611 racesAll Woodbine picks

It's a beautiful Sunday at Woodbine — partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 77°F mean near-ideal conditions for both the dirt and turf courses. That's good news for a card that leans heavily on the grass, with seven of today's 11 races going over the green.

The headliners are a trio of stakes races in Races 7, 9, and 10, giving the card some real teeth. Longshot Leo tops our TrackWiz ratings for the day, and Just Magnificent is drawing some serious attention as a potential overlay at 15/1 in the Race 10 turf stakes. We'll get to all of it.

Bottom line: 11 races, quality turf conditions, and a stakes-heavy afternoon. There's plenty here to sink your teeth into whether you're playing single races or building multi-race sequences.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Two horses dominate the TrackWiz ratings in this 6-furlong dirt claiming opener, leaving the rest of the field fighting for scraps — but the morning line favorite sits a step below our top-rated pair.

win2Switchin' to GlideML 5/2

Switchin' to Glide tops our ratings at 87.81 and draws the morning line at 5/2, which feels about right for a horse that profiles as the class of this field. Trainer Robert P. Tiller puts Romero Ramsay Maragh in the irons — a rider who knows how to get position in early-pace scenarios on the Woodbine dirt. The 8% career win rate is modest, but the rating gap between this horse and the rest of the field is hard to ignore in a claiming sprint.

place6Good to Be LuckyML 2/1

Good to Be Lucky (6) rates just a hair below Switchin' to Glide at 86.05 and actually carries the shortest morning line in the race at 2/1, suggesting the public is sweet on this one. With a 12% career win percentage — solid for a claiming runner — and the same average speed figure as our top pick, this is the most logical place to key against. If the two top-rated horses run their race, they should finish 1-2 in some order.

show4Halcon NegroML 6/1

Halcon Negro at 6/1 on the morning line is our show selection, offering some value compared to the chalk. The TrackWiz rating of 67.28 puts this George Billers trainee a healthy notch above Screen Scene and Maynard's Song, and Jeffrey Ian Alderson has quietly been a reliable pilot at this level. In a field where the top two dominate the ratings, Halcon Negro is your best bet to land in the third spot and give exotics some life.

Race 2

5:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

The turf router at 1 1/16 miles features a clear top two on the ratings sheet, but Delta Force's strong career win percentage throws a wrench into any easy exacta boxes.

win1AccelerandoML 5/2

Accelerando (1) shares the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 87.81 and draws 5/2 on the morning line — a fair number for the top-rated horse. Trainer William Tharrenos hands the call to Ryan Munger, and the 13% career win rate is respectable for a turf route. With the same average speed figure as several rivals but a rating that stands alone at the top, Accelerando is the most defensible win selection in this field.

place5ThundermakerML 2/1

Thundermaker (5) rates second in the field at 80.43 and is actually the morning line favorite at 2/1, meaning the public is highest on this Kevin Attard-trained runner. A 25% career win rate is genuinely strong — that's a horse that converts when it fires — and Pietro Moran aboard gives it a capable pilot around two turns. If Accelerando falters, Thundermaker is the most likely beneficiary.

show2Delta ForceML 3/1

Delta Force (2) is the interesting piece here — a 33% career win rate is the best in the field by a wide margin, and trainer Donald C. MacRae is no stranger to competitive turf routes at Woodbine. The TrackWiz rating of 69.52 sits third, and the 3/1 morning line reflects genuine public respect. In a race where the top two ratings are clustered tightly, Delta Force's conversion rate makes it a strong show anchor.

Race 3

6:05 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 7 fur · Turf

A wide-open maiden special weight on the turf at 7 furlongs — everyone in this field is still looking for their first win, and the ratings are bunched close enough that the outcome could come down to post position and pace setup.

win3Epic AffairML 5/2

Epic Affair (3) earns our top rating at 57.50 and carries the best average speed figure in the field at 57 — that's a meaningful edge in a maiden race where raw ability matters most. Ryan Munger gets the call for trainer Gail Cox, who also has Classic Lines in the race and clearly fancies her turf maidens today. The 5/2 morning line keeps this from being a value play, but the combination of top speed figure and top rating makes it the most logical win selection.

place1KlassenML 3/1

Klassen (1) sits just behind Epic Affair in our ratings at 56.67 and checks in at 3/1 on the morning line. Kevin Attard is a top Woodbine conditioner, and Luis R. Reyes has the rail — a potentially useful asset in a turf sprint where inside position can save ground. Klassen matches Epic Affair on the speed figure average but trails slightly in the overall rating, making it the natural place selection.

show2Classic LinesML 4/1

Classic Lines (2) rounds out the top three at a rating of 55.0, and with the same average speed figure as Klassen, this is a tight call for third. Trainer Gail Cox running two horses in the same race often signals genuine confidence, and Classic Lines gets Pietro Moran for a spot bet. At 4/1 morning line odds, there's a bit of overlay value if you're building maiden turf exotics.

Our three free previews today cover Races 1, 2, and 3 — a nice cross-section of the card spanning dirt and turf. Switchin' to Glide opens things up in the Race 1 claiming sprint on dirt, where pace scenario figures to play a big role in a six-furlong dash. On the turf, Accelerando gets the nod in the Race 2 claiming mile-and-a-sixteenth, a distance where stalkers tend to thrive on Woodbine's Polytrack-style turf layout. And in the Race 3 maiden special weight at seven furlongs on the grass, Epic Affair stands out in what figures to be a wide-open field.

The through-line across all three free picks? Each of our top selections is sitting at 5/2 on the morning line — solid value territory, not chalk, not longshots. A good spot to get your bearings before diving into the premium races later in the card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:38 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

First-time starters dominate this maiden optional claiming sprint on the dirt, making raw ratings and trainer form the primary handicapping tools — the public's top two horses are separated by just under a point on our sheet.

win3Magical TricksterML 2/1

Magical Trickster (3) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 58.33 and draws the 2/1 morning line favorite tab — and it's earned that distinction. Trainer Julia Carey puts Emma-Jayne Wilson aboard, one of Woodbine's most reliable jockeys when it comes to first-out debuts. With no published speed figure on record, this is a bet on talent evaluation and trainer intent, but Magical Trickster's rating leads the field and that's where we start.

place6Northern KingML 5/2

Northern King (6) rates second in the field at 57.50 and is also a first-time starter for trainer William Tharrenos, who also runs Signature Winner in this race — always a sign a barn is feeling confident about its horses' readiness. Jeffrey Ian Alderson picks up the mount, and the 5/2 morning line puts Northern King almost as short as the favorite. In a debut-heavy sprint, having the second-best rating at a price that reflects value is a workable place angle.

show2Signature WinnerML 7/2

Signature Winner (2) rates third in the field at 55.83 and gives Tharrenos two bites at the apple. Kirk Johnson takes the mount, and while no average speed figure is available, the trainer's dual-entry approach suggests he's particularly confident about this morning. At 7/2, Signature Winner offers a slight overlay compared to the top two and rounds out the natural show position in exotics.

Race 5

7:10 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

Smokin Empire enters this mile turf maiden with the top TrackWiz rating in the field but faces a competitive group where three horses are bunched in the high-70s — the pace scenario over a mile could be the deciding factor.

win6Smokin EmpireML 7/2

Smokin Empire (6) leads all horses with a 86.35 TrackWiz rating and posts the best average speed figure in the field at 55 — meaningful edges in a maiden turf mile. Fraser Aebly gets the call for trainer Mark E. Casse, one of the sport's elite conditioners who regularly wins at a high rate with turf maidens. The 7/2 morning line feels like value given the rating advantage, and Casse's Woodbine record with this type warrants respect.

place1No Hay DosML 5/2

No Hay Dos (1) checks in with a strong 78.51 rating and draws the rail for trainer Kevin Attard with Pietro Moran aboard — a sharp barn-jockey combo. The morning line of 5/2 makes this one of the public's top choices, and a one-mile turf trip from the inside post can be advantageous when traffic breaks cleanly. No Hay Dos is the most logical alternative if Smokin Empire doesn't fire.

show2Baltic SeaML 8/1

Baltic Sea (2) is worth a look at 8/1 on the morning line as our show selection, boasting a 77.69 TrackWiz rating that sits just below No Hay Dos. Trainer Patrick Dixon sends Christoff Douglas out on a horse that posts an average speed figure of 53 — competitive for this class level. The value here is real: you're getting the third-best-rated horse at a significantly longer price than the top two, which sets up nicely in any exacta or trifecta coverage.

Race 6

7:42 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 7 fur · Turf

A big field of twelve first-time starters going 7 furlongs on the turf means this race is a puzzle — trainer power, jockey ability, and our ratings are doing the heavy lifting today in the absence of past performances.

win11True North StarML 3/1

True North Star (11) earns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 56.67 and draws 3/1 on the morning line, which is among the shortest prices in this full field. Mark E. Casse puts Rafael Manuel Hernandez aboard — a top Canadian jockey who handles debut runners with poise. Casse is one of the most successful trainers at Woodbine with turf maidens, and when he sends a horse out at 3/1 in a debut, it typically reflects genuine confidence in the horse's workouts and talent.

place7GhostfaceML 9/2

Ghostface (7) rates second in our sheet at 54.17 for trainer Mark E. Casse — yes, Casse runs two horses here, which suggests a barn stacked with live entrants. Sahin Civaci gets the mount, and the 9/2 morning line offers a slight overlay compared to the top selection. With an average speed figure of 55 — the best of any horse with a published figure — Ghostface has shown enough in the morning to warrant serious consideration for place exotics.

show8Samaritan TrailML 5/1

Samaritan Trail (8) rates third in the field at 53.33 for trainer Josie Carroll, a trainer who has shown a knack for placing maiden turf runners in winnable spots. Fraser Aebly is a solid pick-up in the irons, and while no speed figure is on record, Carroll rarely sends horses out cold. At 5/1 on the morning line, Samaritan Trail is a fair price to anchor show tickets in a field this deep and unpredictable.

Race 7

8:14 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A small but intriguing stakes field at 6.5 furlongs on the dirt, where the top TrackWiz rating belongs to a horse going off at 9/5 — but the public's even-money choice carries a 50% career win rate that demands respect.

win2Longshot LeoML 9/5

Longshot Leo (2) owns the field's best TrackWiz rating at 88.83 — a significant margin over every other entrant — and draws the 9/5 morning line, making this the top play on paper. Trainer Dale A. Desruisseaux sends Fraser Aebly aboard, and in a stakes sprint on the dirt, a horse with a rating nearly 30 points clear of third place is a rare find. The zero career win percentage is worth noting, but in a stakes context the rating dominance is compelling enough to lead our selections.

place1Souper SurvivorML EVN

Souper Survivor (1) is the people's choice at even money and carries a jaw-dropping 50% career win rate — this horse simply knows how to win. Emma-Jayne Wilson takes the mount for trainer William Tharrenos, and the combination of win-rate consistency and inside post makes Souper Survivor the natural place anchor. If the race gets contested early and Longshot Leo has any vulnerability, Souper Survivor is the most dangerous closer in the field.

show4War EmperorML 6/1

War Emperor (4) is an interesting inclusion at 6/1 for trainer Barbara J. Minshall — a 100% career win rate (small sample, but still) paired with an average speed figure of 55 sets this horse apart from the other mid-tier runners. Romero Ramsay Maragh has the assignment, and in a stakes sprint where pace can be pressured, a horse that has never lost may find a way to run its race again. At 6/1, this is a fair overlay for show tickets and trifecta coverage.

Race 8

8:46 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Turf

Hunt Master enters this allowance optional claiming turf sprint as the top-rated horse, but Lucky Score and Baxley both bring strong career win percentages that could make this a three-horse battle down the lane.

win3Hunt MasterML 9/5

Hunt Master (3) leads the field with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — matching the highest figure we've seen all day — and draws the 9/5 morning line favorite tab for trainer Steve Bryant. Pietro Moran gets the call, and with a 22% career win rate and experience at this level, Hunt Master looks like the class of this allowance field. The edge in raw rating over second-best Lucky Score is nearly 8 points, which is a meaningful gap in a seven-horse turf sprint.

place1Lucky ScoreML 7/2

Lucky Score (1) rates second in the field at 80.69 and comes in with a 25% career win percentage — strong consistency for an allowance horse. Mark E. Casse sends Fraser Aebly out on this runner, and the 7/2 morning line suggests the public is well aware of its credentials. An average speed figure of 56 — the second-highest in the race — backs up the rating, and Casse's turf sprint record at Woodbine gives this horse a high floor.

show5BaxleyML 6/1

Baxley (5) is the sneaky piece of this race at 6/1 morning line — a 40% career win rate is the best of any horse in the field, meaning when Baxley fires, it usually wins. Luis Contreras gets the mount for trainer Harold Ladouceur, and the horse's record suggests talent that hasn't always been reflected in short odds. At 6/1, this is a strong show anchor and a legitimate exacta wheel candidate if you're looking for value beneath the top two.

Race 9

9:17 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A seven-horse dirt stakes sprint with a wide-open look — Sarayu holds the top rating but faces multiple horses carrying perfect or near-perfect career records, making pace scenario and post position pivotal.

win4SarayuML 2/1

Sarayu (4) owns the field's best TrackWiz rating at 68.49 and draws the 2/1 morning line favorite, which lines up neatly with our assessment. Pietro Moran picks up the ride for trainer James Bentley Begg, and a 33% career win rate is solid for a stakes-level runner. An average speed figure of 55 matches the top marks in the field, and the rating advantage over the rest of the field — particularly in a sprint distance where raw ability tends to show quickly — makes Sarayu our primary play.

place6Stunningly PerfectML 3/1

Stunningly Perfect (6) comes in at 56.67 on our ratings with a 50% career win rate — that's genuinely impressive. Trainer Steven Chircop also runs Awesome Grace in this race, giving the barn two bites at the apple. Jose Luis Campos has the mount, and in a 6.5-furlong stakes sprint on the dirt, a horse that wins every other start at minimum deserves strong consideration for place tickets.

show7Awesome GraceML 8/1

Awesome Grace (7) is our show selection at 8/1 morning line — a real price in a seven-horse field. The TrackWiz rating of 56.53 puts this Chircop trainee just a hair below stablemate Stunningly Perfect, and Romero Ramsay Maragh is an upgrade in the irons. A 20% career win rate is workable, and with two Chircop runners in the race, if one of them hits the board it could easily be Awesome Grace if Stunningly Perfect gets caught wide or trapped in traffic.

Race 10

9:47 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

The pick here goes against the morning line — Just Magnificent is our top selection at 15/1, while the two public favorites sit outside our top three on the TrackWiz ratings in this nine-horse turf stakes at 1 1/8 miles.

win6Just MagnificentML 15/1

Just Magnificent (6) is our lone longshot call of the late card, posting a 69.58 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the field — at a morning line price of 15/1 that represents outstanding overlay value. Ryan Munger gets the mount for trainer Evette Chartrand-Hoek, and a 16% career win rate is reasonable for a turf router. The rating edge here is real and significant: Just Magnificent grades out ahead of Speedy Freeze (69.11) and Ontario (60.63), the two most heavily backed horses on the morning line. If the public is sleeping on this one, that's where the value lives.

place7Speedy FreezeML 4/1

Speedy Freeze (7) rates second in the field at 69.11 and carries the field's best average speed figure at 55 — a combination that's hard to dismiss over 1 1/8 miles on turf. Emma-Jayne Wilson gets the call for trainer Ronald H. Sadler, and a 28% career win rate is the second-best conversion mark in the race. At 4/1 on the morning line, this is far more reasonably priced than the morning line favorite and should hit the board frequently at this class level.

show2OntarioML 2/1

Ontario (2) draws the 2/1 morning line but rates third in our model at 60.63 — a meaningful gap from our top two selections that suggests the public may be overvaluing this runner. That said, a 23% career win rate for trainer Joe Sharp with Rafael Manuel Hernandez aboard is a respectable combination, and this is a stakes-caliber horse that could easily land in the frame. At 2/1, Ontario is underpriced for a win but fine for show coverage in exotics.

Race 11

10:17 PM EDT

Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

The final race of the day is a 12-horse optional claiming field on the turf, and Big Screen Boss stands head and shoulders above the field on the TrackWiz ratings — but a crowded field and tight pace could create chaos.

win10Big Screen BossML 3/1

Big Screen Boss (10) leads all horses with a 87.08 TrackWiz rating — the kind of number that's tough to ignore in a claiming field — and draws 3/1 on the morning line for trainer Tedston Holder. Pietro Moran is an excellent fit in the irons for a turf route, and while a 6% career win rate is low, the raw rating suggests talent that hasn't always been converted to wins. In a deep optional claiming field, the ratings edge of nearly 7 points over second-best Maker's Flatter is substantial.

place2Maker's FlatterML 5/1

Maker's Flatter (2) rates second in the field at 80.33 and gets Romero Ramsay Maragh for trainer Michael P. De Paulo, who also runs Its in the Cards in this race. A 11% career win rate with an average speed figure of 53 is consistent with this level of competition, and the 5/1 morning line feels like a fair overlay given the rating. In a 12-horse field, Maker's Flatter's combination of rating, pace versatility, and a capable pilot makes it an ideal place anchor.

show11Its in the CardsML 7/2

Its in the Cards (11) rates third in the field at 74.83 for trainer Michael P. De Paulo — giving that barn two of the top three ratings in the race, which speaks to genuine stable form right now. Emma-Jayne Wilson picks up the mount, and a 5% career win rate is worth forgiving given the quality of the rating and the trainer's dual-entry confidence. At 7/2 on the morning line, this is a slightly underpriced show selection, but the value is in building exotics around the De Paulo barn's one-two punch.

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Woodbine's Sunday card is a legit all-day program — great weather, quality turf, and three stakes races anchoring the back stretch. Our top TrackWiz-rated horses on the day are Longshot Leo and Hunt Master (both rated 88.83), with the intriguing Just Magnificent lurking as a value play at 15/1 in Race 10. The three free picks — Switchin' to Glide, Accelerando, and Epic Affair — get you started, and the full premium breakdown covers everything else. Good luck out there.

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