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Woodbine Picks & Predictions — September 17, 2026

September 17, 20267 racesAll Woodbine picks

Happy Thursday from Woodbine. Seven races are on the board today, the temperature is sitting at a comfortable 73°F under partly cloudy skies, and the conditions look about as cooperative as you could ask for a mid-September afternoon in Toronto. No excuses for the horses — or the handicappers.

The card leans heavily on dirt, with five of the seven races run over the main track. Turf gets a pair of spots in Races 2 and 4, and with the weather holding steady, we'd expect those grass surfaces to play fair and fast. It's a claiming-heavy afternoon overall, which means class movement and trainer intent are going to be your best friends today.

Three races are open to every TrackWiz reader today, free of charge. Races 4 through 7 are locked behind the premium paywall — and trust us, you'll want to look at what we've got on Shak Town in Race 6.

Best Bets

Race 1

7:10 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

The favorite on the morning line isn't the one our numbers like most — Crumlin Fashion grades out on top in a claiming sprint that has a clear top three separated from the rest.

win5Crumlin FashionML 8/5

Crumlin Fashion is our top-rated horse in this field with an 89.12 TrackWiz rating and a 22% career win rate — that's a well-rounded profile for a claiming dirt sprint at seven furlongs. Edgar Zenteno gets the call, and at 8/5 on the morning line, the market agrees this one is the one to beat. The average speed figure of 54 matches the top cluster in the field, meaning she's keeping pace on raw speed while pulling away on overall rating. In a race where the top three separates cleanly from a bunch of sub-40 horses, the ceiling here is meaningfully higher than the competition.

place1Sterling HeightsML 7/2

Sterling Heights is the second-highest rated horse in the field at 84.31, a significant step up from everyone else not named Crumlin Fashion or Chargethatmountain. Jose Luis Campos is an experienced hand who knows how to place a horse, and a 7/2 morning line on a horse with this kind of rating edge makes for solid place value. At 11% career wins the horse isn't flashy, but this is a race where finishing second could be well within reach.

show4ChargethatmountainML 2/1

Chargethatmountain brings a 22% career win rate and a 74.84 TrackWiz rating into this spot — that's a horse who knows how to compete and finds the winner's circle at a reasonable clip. Jason Hoyte rides for Devon Gittens, a barn to watch at Woodbine. The 2/1 morning line makes this the second choice on paper, and while our ratings slot it third, show coverage here makes plenty of sense in exacta and trifecta construction.

Race 2

7:40 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

A five-furlong turf dash where one horse's career numbers stand far above the rest — but a pair of lightly-regarded rivals could complicate things enough to make exotics interesting.

win8SoupergirlML 5/2

Soupergirl is an absolute standout on paper: a 53% career win rate is almost unheard of at this level, and she backs it up with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — the top mark in the field by a wide margin. Sofia Vives has the mount, and the 5 fur turf trip suits a horse with this kind of raw efficiency. At 5/2 on the morning line, she's not a price play, but she's the right bet — in a five-furlong dash, elite horses tend to show it early and not look back.

place1Saucy NameML 8/1

Saucy Name is a sneaky value play here at 8/1 on the morning line with a 77.71 rating — the second-highest in the field. Kemarie Blackett picks up the ride for the Kerron Palmer barn, and a 15% career win rate isn't eye-popping but it's functional. If Soupergirl gets challenged early and flattens, Saucy Name has the ratings profile to grab a piece at a generous price.

show2Souper SundayML 5/2

Souper Sunday comes in at 74.9 on our model with a 20% career win rate and the top average speed figure in the field at 55 — a mark matched by Executive Success but not exceeded. Luis R. Reyes pilots for Dominic J. Polsinelli's barn and the 5/2 morning line suggests market respect. In a short five-furlong sprint on the lawn, tactical positioning matters, and Souper Sunday's speed profile says she'll be close enough to hit the board.

Race 3

8:12 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A tightly-bunched dirt sprint at 6.5 furlongs where the top three TrackWiz ratings are separated by fewer than two points — this one could come down to pace setup and who gets the ideal trip.

win3Olivia's MelodyML 2/1

Olivia's Melody sits at the top of our ratings at 81.54 despite a career win percentage of just 4% — which tells you this horse has been running in tougher spots and is now finding a level where the raw ability should shine. Christoff Douglas rides for Kerron Palmer, a barn sending out multiple horses today, always a sign of a stable in good form. The 2/1 morning line reflects public confidence, and at 6.5 furlongs on dirt, a horse with this ratings edge in a closely-matched field has the look of a winner.

place2Hope She FiresML 8/1

Hope She Fires is the value angle of the race at 8/1 — a horse carrying a 79.79 TrackWiz rating that is functionally tied with our top pick yet available at four times the morning line price. Skye Chernetz takes the mount for Devon Gittens, and a 6% career win rate suggests this horse has been competitive without closing the deal — the kind of profile that often produces strong place finishes. If the pace shapes up in her favor, she could make this a legitimate upset situation.

show6Hot ListML 6/1

Hot List rounds out the board picks at 79.71 on our model — a number that makes this trio remarkably close at the top of the field. What separates Hot List is a 33% career win rate, the best of the three contenders, and an average speed figure of 55 — a tick above her rivals. Jason Hoyte rides for Kerron Palmer, the same barn as Olivia's Melody, and at 6/1 there's genuine show value here for exotic players looking to cover the top of this tight field.

Our three free races span all three surfaces — dirt, turf, and dirt again — so there's something to dig into regardless of your preferred betting angle. Crumlin Fashion opens the day in Race 1 as our top-rated horse at 89.12, looking like a solid foundation piece if you're building early pick sequences. On the turf side, Soupergirl gets the nod in Race 2 over a quick 5-furlong sprint, where pace and position off the break often decide things before the field even hits the turn. Olivia's Melody closes out the free card in Race 3 at morning-line odds of 2/1, a reasonable favorite whose rating of 81.54 still leaves some room for a price horse to sneak in.

The common thread across these three? All claiming races, all at distances where speed figures and early pace shape tend to dominate. Keep an eye on how the dirt is playing through the first few races — if horses on the lead are holding, that's a signal worth carrying into the back half of the card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

8:42 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Turf

This turf claiming route at 6.5 furlongs features a clear top-rated horse posting a big gap over the morning line favorite — if our model is right, Sil's Gamble is the most mispriced horse on today's card.

win3Sil's GambleML 7/2

Sil's Gamble rates out at 86.35 — a full six points clear of second-ranked Keytothepark — yet sits at 7/2 on the morning line while the 2/1 morning line favorite grades out lower. Fraser Aebly gets the mount for the respected Josie Carroll barn, a combination that should attract attention at the windows. A 55 average speed figure matches the top of the field, and Carroll's horses on the lawn at Woodbine are always worth a second look. This is the kind of ratings-versus-odds gap that TrackWiz analysis was built to identify.

place4KeytotheparkML 2/1

Keytothepark is the morning line favorite at 2/1 with a 79.86 rating, and while our model slots this one second, the 14% career win rate and 54 average speed figure still make for a legitimate contender. Pietro Moran rides for Darwin D. Banach and this horse's consistency in competitive spots is exactly the profile you want in a place pick. A short price means the win pool isn't where the value lives, but in exotics this one belongs on your ticket.

show5VranaML 5/2

Vrana draws a note for the show spot despite a 62.55 rating that puts some daylight between this pick and the top two. What makes Vrana interesting as a show hedge is the Luis Contreras booking — a rider who knows how to navigate the Woodbine lawn — paired with a 5/2 price that suggests the public sees more here than the numbers alone show. The 10% career win rate is modest, but at 5/2 you're not paying for a power horse; you're paying for a horse who might just be good enough to finish third in a race where the top two eat most of the pool.

Race 5

9:13 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

An allowance optional claiming sprint at six furlongs that sets up as a two-horse battle between legitimate horses — but the public has it backwards on the morning line, and that's where the opportunity lives.

win5I Got MurphedML 5/1

I Got Murphed leads our ratings at 84.17 yet opens at 5/1 on the morning line — a notable gap from the 2/1 Minimum Forty. Pietro Moran takes the mount for Tino Attard, a sharp combination in this class of race. A 44% career win rate is genuinely elite — this is a horse that has learned how to close the deal — and an average speed figure of 55 keeps pace with the top of the field. At allowance optional claiming level, horses with this kind of win efficiency against open company are worth backing, especially when the morning line gives you value.

place4Minimum FortyML 2/1

Minimum Forty comes in at 79.03 and a 50% career win rate — the single highest in the field — for Robert P. Tiller, a trainer who has a long track record at Woodbine. Daisuke Fukumoto has the mount and the 2/1 morning line makes this the favorite. Our model slots it second behind I Got Murphed, but this is a horse that finishes in the money at an exceptional rate, and the place slot is very much in play. Fading it entirely on your ticket would be a mistake.

show6Social CodeML 4/1

Social Code at 4/1 on the morning line with a 63.44 rating rounds out our selections and provides useful coverage in the show spot for trifecta players. Rafael Manuel Hernandez rides for Blair A. Miller, and a 22% career win rate suggests a horse that competes consistently without dominating. In an allowance sprint where the top two could go hard at each other, a horse sitting just off the pace with this kind of functional speed figure (55) is exactly the type that pops up third when the leaders get into a fight.

Race 6

9:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Shak Town is as dominant a morning line favorite as you'll see on this card — but at even money, the real question is how to structure your exotics around a horse this likely to win.

win7Shak TownML EVN

Shak Town posts a 90.0 TrackWiz rating — the highest of any horse on today's card — and backs it with a 40% career win rate and a field-best 56 average speed figure. Luis R. Reyes rides for Kevin Attard, a premier Woodbine combination, and even money on the morning line reflects just how far ahead of this field the numbers say this horse is. In a 5.5-furlong dirt sprint, raw speed wins, and Shak Town has more of it than anyone in this field by a measurable margin. This is the rare even-money horse that TrackWiz analysis actually endorses.

place3GlasweigianML 6/1

Glasweigian slots in as our place pick at 6/1 with a 69.45 rating — a solid mid-field number that puts this one well above the bottom half of the draw. Keveh Nicholls rides for Devon Gittens, a barn that's been active today, and an 11% career win rate with a 55 average speed figure suggests a horse that competes without quite having the ceiling of the elite. At 6/1, the place payoff could be generous if Shak Town wins at a short price, making Glasweigian a practical exotic play.

show6Elgin ParkML 7/2

Elgin Park brings a 25% career win rate — the second-best in this field behind Shak Town — and a 65.06 rating that comfortably exceeds everyone except the top two on our board. Ryan Munger is in the irons for the William Tharrenos stable, and 7/2 on the morning line reflects real public support. The average speed figure of 52 is a touch below the field's top performers, but in a short sprint where position matters, a horse this experienced at winning can still snag the show spot if the pace softens up.

Race 7

10:17 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Mighty Tanner is a heavy favorite in a six-furlong dirt claimer, but the 9/5 morning line tells you the public is well aware — the real intrigue is whether Party Hotline can make it a race.

win3Mighty TannerML 9/5

Mighty Tanner grades out at 88.83 on our model — second only to Shak Town among all horses today — yet carries a 12% career win rate that suggests this horse has been running against better. Now dropping into a spot where the rating is a full eight points clear of the next-best horse, the conditions look right for a breakthrough. Rafael Manuel Hernandez has the mount for Kevin Attard, who also saddles Shak Town in Race 6 — when Attard is sending out the top-rated horse in consecutive races, that's a barn on a roll. At 9/5, it's not a value play, but it's the right play.

place4Party HotlineML 5/2

Party Hotline comes in at 80.27 with a 20% career win rate — the best winning percentage among any horse within range of Mighty Tanner — and Pietro Moran rides for Todd Kettleson. A 5/2 morning line makes this one the clear second choice, and the TrackWiz rating backs that up. In a six-furlong dirt sprint, a horse with a double-digit win rate and a solid speed figure of 54 is exactly the type that runs second when the favorite wins going away.

show5KimberlinaML 7/2

Kimberlina is an interesting third option for Emma-Jayne Wilson and Steve Attard at 7/2 on the morning line. The 69.64 rating and a 55 average speed figure match up well against the mid-field competition, and Wilson is one of the most capable jockeys in Woodbine's regular colony — she extracts every bit of effort her horses have. A 4% career win rate is the one flag here, but this is a show pick, and a horse this competitive in its recent form can easily secure a piece of the trifecta.

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A clean late-summer day at Woodbine, seven races, and a card that rewards sharp class-reading and pace awareness. Crumlin Fashion is our top free play to open the day, Shak Town is the headliner on the premium side, and there's genuine value hiding in the middle of this card if you know where to look. Full analysis — pace projections, exotic plays, and every pick from Race 4 onward — is available to TrackWiz subscribers. Good luck out there.

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