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Woodbine Picks & Predictions — September 12, 2026

September 12, 202612 racesAll Woodbine picks

Clear skies, 76°F, and a rock-solid turf course — if you're going to spend a Saturday at the races, it doesn't get much better than this. Woodbine is rolling out a loaded 12-race card today, and the conditions are about as ideal as you'll find all season. Expect firm footing on the grass and a fast, consistent dirt strip.

The headliner here is depth, not just one marquee event. Six stakes races are spread across the card — three on turf, two on dirt, one at a classic 1¼-mile distance that should sort out the stayers from the pretenders. We've got morning-line favorites sitting anywhere from 8/5 to 12/1, which tells you right away this isn't a chalk-heavy day. There's legitimate spread in these fields, and that means opportunity.

TrackWiz analysis covers all 12 races. The first three — Maiden Special Weight on turf, a 6-furlong dirt claimer, and a Maiden Optional Claiming sprint — are free for every reader. Races 4 through 12, including all six stakes, are available to subscribers. Let's get into it.

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Race 1

5:00 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

A wide-open maiden special weight on the turf mile where three horses are bunched within four points at the top of the TrackWiz ratings — expect a contested pace and a genuine photo-finish battle.

win6Little LolaML 2/1

Little Lola tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.54 and lands the morning-line second choice at 2/1, suggesting the market already respects her chances without fully pricing her in. Pietro Moran gets the call, and this filly's average speed figure of 55 ties for best in the field. In a maiden turf sprint where pedigree and work-tab fitness often separate contenders, her overall rating edge over the field is the clearest differentiator we have going in.

place4Yorkton's TaffyML 9/5

Yorkton's Taffy sits right behind Little Lola with an 85.41 rating and draws the morning-line favorite tag at 9/5 — the public clearly sees something here. Trainer Josie Carroll is a Woodbine staple who knows how to place horses, and Fraser Aebly is a steady hand for maiden turf routes. If Little Lola stumbles or gets caught up in traffic, Taffy is the logical beneficiary.

show3Lapin de PlageML 3/1

Lapin de Plage is right in the mix with an 84.82 rating and comes in as the 3/1 third choice, giving handicappers solid value for exotics. Catherine Day Phillips has a reputation for sending ready horses, and David Moran gives this one a capable pilot. The tightly packed ratings at the top of this field mean all three of our top picks could finish within a length of each other.

Race 2

5:29 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Robert P. Tiller sends out a one-two punch at 5/2 and 3/1 that dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this six-furlong dirt claimer — but a pair of speed types in the field could set things up for a closer.

win3Napa SpiritML 5/2

Napa Spirit leads all horses with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and sports a stellar 31% career win rate — the strongest winning percentage in the field by a clear margin. Tiller is doubling up his barn's chances, but Napa Spirit is the stable's A-entry here, drawing Xarel Forde and a favorable 5/2 morning line. At six furlongs on the dirt, a horse with that kind of winning consistency is tough to fade.

place1Red WeaverML 3/1

Red Weaver is stablemate to Napa Spirit under trainer Robert P. Tiller and is no slouch himself, posting a 79.71 rating and a 21% career win rate. Daisuke Fukumoto handles the riding duties, and the 3/1 morning line represents fair value. When a barn fires two legitimate horses, the second one often gets ignored in the wagering — and that's exactly where the place overlay might live today.

show4El AlacranML 5/1

El Alacran brings the highest average speed figure in the race at 56 and posts a respectable 74.86 TrackWiz rating. Keveh Nicholls is aboard, and a 20% career win rate says this horse knows how to compete. At 5/1 on the morning line, he's a legitimate contender to hit the board if the pace scenario sets up for a closer.

Race 3

6:00 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden optional claimer on the dirt where several first-time starters create significant uncertainty — Feeling Supersonic holds a clear rating edge, but the pace picture is murky with multiple unknowns in the field.

win4Feeling SupersonicML 5/2

Feeling Supersonic owns a 71.36 TrackWiz rating, the highest in the field by a comfortable 13-point margin over the second-best horse. Trainer David Cotey sends her out with Skye Chernetz aboard, and her average speed figure of 53 is in line with the top horses in this field. In a maiden optional claimer full of first-timers and lightly raced runners, a measurable rating edge like this is exactly the kind of edge worth backing.

place6ChinookML 2/1

Chinook checks in with a 58.33 rating and is trained by Kevin Attard, one of Woodbine's most dependable conditioners. Pietro Moran gets the mount, a pairing that shows up on the board regularly at this track. At 2/1 on the morning line, the crowd sees Chinook as a major player, and his 53 average speed figure puts him in the competitive tier.

show1C C KitkatML 3/1

C C Kitkat draws post one with a 56.67 rating and gets Austin Adams in the irons for trainer Michael Mattine. No speed figures are on file for this horse, which adds some mystery but also means the morning-line 3/1 price may be generous if she's been working well behind the scenes. In a field where most of the top contenders are closely matched, C C Kitkat offers a sensible hedge in the exotics.

The free portion of today's card gives you a solid cross-section of the day: a mile on the grass, a short sprint on dirt, and a maiden dash that could surface a sharp young horse. Little Lola tops our card in Race 1 at 2/1 on the morning line with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — one of the highest marks on the entire card — and the firm turf today plays right into her profile. In Race 2, Napa Spirit draws our eye in the 6-furlong claiming sprint, and on a day where the dirt track figures to play fair and fast, pace will be at a premium. Race 3 brings more uncertainty — maiden optional claimers can be tricky puzzles — but Feeling Supersonic separates from the field on our model at 5/2.

One thread tying these early races together: today's clear, dry conditions minimize the guesswork around surface variability. No wet bias to navigate, no excuses for connections. Horses that show up ready should run their number, and that's exactly when TrackWiz ratings do their best work.

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Race 4

6:30 PM EDT

Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

This optional claimer on the turf sets up as a two-horse battle at the top of the ratings, with a pair of stakes-caliber mares separating themselves from a decent but outgunned supporting cast.

win1Lady IzzyML 2/1

Lady Izzy tops the TrackWiz ratings at 86.09 and is sent out at 2/1 by trainer Sid C. Attard, another Woodbine barn that consistently delivers. Fraser Aebly is in the irons — a jockey who knows this oval as well as anyone. At 1 1/16 miles on the turf, Lady Izzy's combination of top rating and reliable connections make her the most logical place to anchor your ticket.

place2Tap My DesireML 3/1

Tap My Desire is right behind at 83.81 with Keveh Nicholls up for trainer Philip Hall, and her 3/1 morning line suggests the market isn't far behind our model in terms of respect. A 7% career win rate is modest, but her average speed figure of 54 is among the best in the field. She profiles as a horse that runs big in defeat and could easily be the one to chase Lady Izzy to the wire.

show6MikelleML 7/2

Mikelle sits third in our ratings at 74.91 and draws Pietro Moran for trainer Katerina Vassilieva, posting an 11% career win rate that's the best among the middle tier. The 7/2 morning line represents solid value if she can find cover early and make a sustained run on the turf. She's the kind of horse who rewards exotic players willing to go three deep.

Race 5

7:05 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Turf

A loaded stakes field on the Woodbine turf mile features a deep Mark E. Casse contingent, international connections, and several horses with perfect win records — making this one of the trickiest puzzles on the card.

win4VoyagerML 4/1

Voyager gets the nod at 4/1 with a 59.60 TrackWiz rating and carries a 33% career win rate, showing he's been there before at this level. Javier Castellano takes the mount — one of the premier turf riders in North America — and trainer Mark E. Casse has multiple runners in this race, which typically means the stable is placing its best chance on the one it likes most. The mile on turf suits Castellano's patient style, and the pace of a field this deep often sets up for a quality mid-pack stalker.

place6LamiradaML 5/2

Lamirada is the 5/2 morning-line second choice under Fraser Aebly for trainer Josie Carroll, and she carries a perfect win record from her prior starts. The 57.50 rating doesn't jump off the page in this company, but an undefeated record and a market that clearly respects her suggest she's held form between races. Carroll's runners at Woodbine are always prepared, and Lamirada has the look of a horse that can run a big second even if she can't quite match the winner.

show7EmbouteillageML 5/1

Embouteillage brings a perfect career record and goes with Hall of Famer John R. Velazquez for trainer H. Graham Motion, a combination that rarely shows up without a live chance. The 5/1 morning line is fair for a stakes horse with this kind of accomplished connections package, and a 57 average speed figure is competitive. Motion typically has his grass horses pointed and ready, making Embouteillage a credible exotics inclusion.

Race 6

7:37 PM EDT

Stakes · 7 fur · Dirt

The seven-furlong dirt stakes is a genuine pace duel waiting to happen — the morning-line favorite Piper's Factor figures to be challenged early, and the TrackWiz model loves a closer who's been overlooked by the oddsmaker.

win7Notorious GangsterML 2/1

Notorious Gangster leads our ratings at 79.31 despite being listed at 2/1 on the morning line — which is at least fair value in a field this competitive. A 36% career win rate is the highest in the field and signals a horse that consistently converts when given the opportunity. Rafael Manuel Hernandez takes the mount for Josie Carroll, a trainer who sends her runners fit and ready. At seven furlongs on the dirt, Notorious Gangster's combo of strong rating and elite win percentage makes him the most complete profile in the race.

place8Heavy PourML 10/1

Heavy Pour is our place selection at a generous 10/1 morning line, posting a 76.88 TrackWiz rating that's the second best in the field — a significant disconnect with that price. A 28% career win rate shows this horse competes and gets his share of winners' circles, and Gaddiel A. Martinez gets the ride for Tim Girten. If you're looking for the best value play on the board in Race 6, Heavy Pour's rating-to-odds gap is the most glaring overlay of the bunch.

show4Souped UpML 5/1

Souped Up rounds out our selection with a 74.55 rating and a 34% career win rate — strong numbers for a horse sitting at 5/1. Emma-Jayne Wilson is one of Woodbine's most respected riders, and trainer Ronald H. Sadler clearly knows how to win with this type. If Notorious Gangster gets caught up in a speed duel with the favorite, Souped Up and Heavy Pour are ideally positioned to sweep the exotics.

Race 7

8:12 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Turf

A 12-horse turf mile stakes with heavy international flavor — European invaders, dual-hemisphere shippers, and proven Woodbine locals all collide, making the pace scenario nearly impossible to project with confidence.

win10VoyagerML 10/1

Voyager doubles back from Race 5 and is our top selection at 10/1 — a significant drift in price that creates real overlay value. His 63.20 TrackWiz rating leads all horses in this field, and a 33% career win rate shows he's a legitimate stakes horse. Javier Castellano stays aboard, and if Voyager ran a credible race earlier in the card, his form coming back suggests he can handle the double-duty assignment. At double-digit morning-line odds for the top-rated horse in the field, this is the kind of price you can't ignore.

place9Al HudaibaML 2/1

Al Hudaiba is the 2/1 morning-line choice with William Buick in the irons for trainer Charles Appleby — a globally elite barn that routinely ships horses primed for big efforts on turf. No domestic speed figures are available, which adds mystery, but Appleby's runners at major international stops are always prepped. The market obviously likes this one, and Buick's hands are worth paying for in any turf race.

show1Big Money ManML 4/1

Big Money Man draws post one at 4/1 with P J McDonald up for trainer Christopher Head, another respected international outfit. No speed figures are on file, but 4/1 on a horse from a sharp European barn in a turf stakes is price worth keeping in the exotics. Head's horses tend to be fit when they travel, and the rail draw in a 12-horse field can be an advantage if the pace unfolds cleanly.

Race 8

8:45 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

The 1 1/16-mile dirt stakes is anchored by a clear class standout at the top of the ratings — Fantastical's edge over the field is the most decisive separation on the entire card today.

win1FantasticalML 8/5

Fantastical carries the highest TrackWiz rating on the day at 89.12 and is rightly installed as the 8/5 morning-line favorite. A 27% career win rate is solid for stakes company, and Rafael Manuel Hernandez gets the mount — a pairing that should handle the 1 1/16-mile dirt distance with confidence. Trainer Joe Sharp sends out a horse that has consistently earned top figures, and when a horse leads the field by nearly eight rating points, fading them requires a very specific reason. We don't have one.

place3LupaML 2/1

Lupa is the 2/1 second choice with Fraser Aebly for trainer Josie Carroll, and she brings the field's highest career win rate at 37% — a genuine stakes-quality profile. Her 81.24 rating is a clear second-best in the field, and Carroll has shown all meet long that she delivers horses sharp. If Fantastical gets into a pace battle early, Lupa's Aebly-piloted stalking trip could produce a big finishing kick.

show7SerendipityML 7/2

Serendipity rounds out our ticket at 7/2 with John R. Velazquez — arguably the greatest jockey in the sport — sitting on a horse rated 55.34 for Josie Carroll. The 40% career win rate stands out immediately, the best in the entire field by several lengths. Carroll doubles up in this race and Velazquez rarely takes a mount without a reason to believe. Serendipity is the logical hedge for exotics players who want to cover the scenario where both top choices underperform.

Race 9

9:20 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Turf

The stakes mile on the turf features a rare head-to-head clash between the domestic form leader and a formidable European import — Deterministic versus Notable Speech (GB) is the race within the race.

win1DeterministicML 2/1

Deterministic is our top selection with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the highest in this field — and a 62% career win rate that is simply staggering for stakes company. Kendrick Carmouche takes the mount for trainer Miguel Clement, and at 2/1, the morning line correctly identifies him as the one to beat. A horse converting at that frequency in his career isn't just good — he's been dominant, and the turf mile at Woodbine is a distance where proven closers with high ceilings can dictate terms.

place3Notable Speech (GB)ML EVN

Notable Speech (GB) comes in at even money — the lowest morning-line price in the entire field — which speaks to the respect the international market has for this Charles Appleby-trained runner. William Buick is one of the best turf pilots on the planet, and a 50% career win rate from the GB side is world-class form. His 73.54 rating trails Deterministic but leads everyone else, setting up a compelling exacta matchup between these two.

show2Gas Me UpML 12/1

Gas Me Up is our longshot-value inclusion at 12/1, carrying a 61.34 rating and a 42% career win rate that is frankly surprising for a horse at this price. Fraser Aebly rides for Kevin Attard, a Woodbine trainer who fires live runners and manages his horses' conditions expertly. A 57 average speed figure — highest in the field — combined with a 12/1 morning line suggests Gas Me Up is being underestimated, and a pace meltdown between the top two could spring him into the exotics.

Race 10

9:55 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/4 mi · Turf

The 1 1/4-mile turf stakes closes out the stakes portion of the card with a battleground between European shippers and proven North American turf horses — the distance is a true test, and the TrackWiz model goes against the morning-line favorite.

win5SomethinaboutherML 12/1

Somethinabouther is our top selection at 12/1, carrying a 73.96 TrackWiz rating that leads all runners despite being one of the longest prices at the windows. Junior Alvarado rides for Brendan P. Walsh, a trainer with a sharp eye for placing horses at the right time. A 17% career win rate is modest, but the rating edge over the morning-line favorite Diamond Rain (GB) — who sits at 7/5 but rates only 59.33 — is the kind of model-versus-market discrepancy that produces overlay winners. At a 1 1/4 miles on the turf, pace tends to collapse and the most talented stayer wins.

place2AchieveML 10/1

Achieve checks in with a 65.08 rating and a 33% career win rate for trainer Mark E. Casse, with Javier Castellano making his third turf appearance on the card. At 10/1, this is a horse the market is clearly undervaluing relative to his credentials. Castellano on a Casse turf horse going long at Woodbine is a combination that should never be dismissed, and the place price here could be substantial.

show1Gimme a NotherML 5/2

Gimme a Nother draws the morning-line second choice role at 5/2 with John R. Velazquez for trainer H. Graham Motion — an accomplished duo in any turf stakes. His 62.04 rating and 42% career win rate suggest a horse who is competitive and consistent, even if our model doesn't have him on top today. At five furlongs beyond the typical route distance, Motion's horses tend to handle the extra ground well, making Gimme a Nother a logical exotics anchor.

Race 11

10:30 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

The allowance optional claimer at 1 1/8 miles on the dirt is dominated by a top-rated horse who figures to be heavily wagered — the question is whether the rest of the field can put up enough pressure to create exotic value underneath.

win2Cash the MoneyML 5/2

Cash the Money tops the ratings at 87.81 — second only to Fantastical on the entire day's card — and draws Sahin Civaci for trainer Mark E. Casse, a reliable combination in any condition. A 23% career win rate is solid for allowance company, and the 5/2 morning line feels like fair pricing rather than an overlay given how far ahead he rates over the field. At 1 1/8 miles on the dirt, a horse with this kind of figure edge typically controls his own fate.

place4GrandsonML 2/1

Grandson is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 with a 70.54 rating and Rafael Manuel Hernandez in the saddle for trainer Katerina Vassilieva. A 13% career win rate is lower than you'd like for a public choice, but the market clearly respects his recent form, and Hernandez has the tactical savvy to engineer a trip in a route race. He should track the pace comfortably and offer a sustained challenge in the stretch.

show3Proud RoninML 8/1

Proud Ronin is our show selection at 8/1, posting a 59.79 TrackWiz rating and a 10% career win rate for trainer Frank Huarte with Fraser Aebly up. His average speed figure of 51 is the lowest among the top contenders, but at 8/1, you're getting a horse with legitimate connections at a price that more than compensates for the form deficit. In an exotics race anchored by two heavily wagered horses, Proud Ronin is exactly the kind of price that makes trifectas pay.

Race 12

11:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

The night cap is a 10-horse turf claimer at 7 1/2 furlongs where the top two TrackWiz-rated horses carry a massive edge over the rest of the field — but the second-best rated horse sits at a tantalizing 8/1 morning line.

win7War LegendML 2/1

War Legend tops the field with an 85.33 TrackWiz rating and is appropriately sent off at 2/1 for trainer Mark E. Casse with Romero Ramsay Maragh in the irons. The 7% career win rate is low, but a horse trained by Casse at this track and surface combination carries implicit confidence — Casse wins with horses who are ready, and War Legend's rating suggests he's peaking at the right time. The 7 1/2 furlongs on turf is a quirky distance that rewards versatile types.

place6Turbo ChargedML 8/1

Turbo Charged is the most glaring value on the board in Race 12 — a 79.79 TrackWiz rating that trails only War Legend, yet sitting at 8/1 on the morning line. Leo Salles gets the mount for trainer Devon Gittens, and a 14% career win rate suggests a horse that competes regularly. The model sees a massive overlap between his talent level and the price being offered, making him a strong exotics play and a legitimate place contender.

show9Joe WestML 9/5

Joe West draws the 9/5 morning-line role — second lowest price in the field — for trainer James Bentley Begg with Keveh Nicholls up. A 65.53 rating puts him third in our model, and despite a modest 4% career win rate, the market is clearly pricing in something it likes about his current form. Joe West profiles as the steady inclusion for players who want a reliable board finisher to anchor their show parlay.

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Bottom line: this is a big day at Woodbine. Perfect conditions, a six-stakes card, and a few prices worth chasing — including a 12/1 longshot in the featured route that our model genuinely likes. Little Lola, Napa Spirit, and Feeling Supersonic are your free best bets to start the card. For the full breakdown — pace projections, exotic tickets, and every premium race — head to your TrackWiz subscription at /pricing. Good luck out there today.

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