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Woodbine Picks & Predictions — August 16, 2026

August 16, 202611 racesAll Woodbine picks

It's a beautiful Sunday at Woodbine — partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 79°F mean the turf should be playing true and the dirt strip is likely fast. Eleven races are on tap, mixing maiden claimers, allowance company, and a turf sprint stakes that gives the card a legitimate centerpiece.

We've got a nice blend of surfaces today — five races on dirt, four on turf, and a card that rewards handicappers who pay attention to pace scenarios. From a maiden claimer off the gate in Race 1 all the way to a closing allowance sprint in Race 10, there's something here for every style of bettor.

Three races are open to all TrackWiz readers, and our top picks in those spots carry solid ratings. The full 11-race breakdown — including the stakes, three allowance-optional claimers, and the premium maiden special weight entries — is available to subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:00 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claimer on the dirt with zero career wins across the board — but TrackWiz ratings reveal a clear top two separated from the rest of the field by a sizeable margin.

win1Instant ResponseML 3/1

Instant Response draws the rail and carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.08, a meaningful gap over second-ranked Ashuka at 77.61. Trainer Daniel S. Harvey saddles two horses today, which shows stable confidence, and Christoff Douglas gets the call on the better of the pair. With an average speed figure of 54, matching the field's top tier, this one looks like the horse to beat going 6½ furlongs on the dirt.

place7AshukaML 5/2

Ashuka comes in at 5/2 on the morning line and backs it up with a 77.61 TrackWiz rating — the second-best number in the race by a comfortable margin. Romero Ramsay Maragh is a capable rider who knows how to get maidens to fire, and trainer Kerron Palmer has this one primed. At a short price, the place spot is where the value sits.

show3Lake Como HeistML 2/1

Lake Como Heist is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 but ranks third in our ratings at 58.33 — worth including in your exotics but not necessarily the top pick. Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin gets the mount for trainer Steve Bryant, and the 53 average speed figure keeps this one in the conversation at 6½ furlongs. A useful show play if the top two dominate.

Race 2

5:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Ever Dangerous enters as a heavy chalk and our ratings back it up — but Countryboysurvive and Compton make this more than a one-horse show, setting up a competitive claiming affair over a mile and a sixteenth.

win3Ever DangerousML 6/5

Ever Dangerous is the morning-line favorite at 6/5 for a reason — a TrackWiz rating of 89.71 leads this field by a healthy margin, and an 18% career win rate shows this horse knows how to finish. Trainer Anthony Adamo puts Luis R. Reyes in the irons, a combination that signals a serious effort. At 1 1/16 miles on the dirt, the slightly longer route should suit a horse with these profile numbers.

place2CountryboysurviveML 7/2

Countryboysurvive is the clear second-best option here with a 73.71 rating and an 18% career win rate that matches the favorite's figure. Trainer Sid C. Attard — one of the more consistent conditioners at Woodbine — sends out Fraser Aebly, and the 7/2 morning line offers solid place value. If the favorite gets into any trouble, this one is right there.

show4ComptonML 3/1

Compton slots in at third in our ratings at 69.89 and also posts an 18% career win figure, making this a genuinely competitive show option. Emma-Jayne Wilson gets the mount and she's always dangerous around this oval. At 3/1, Compton rounds out a trifecta box with the top two nicely.

Race 3

6:05 PM EDT

Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Three horses are clustered at the top of the TrackWiz ratings with scores in the 82–87 range, setting up a genuine pace battle in this optional claimer going 6½ furlongs on the dirt.

win4Next PitchML 3/1

Next Pitch tops the TrackWiz leaderboard in this race at 87.08 and draws a favorable post at number four with David Moran up for trainer John P. LeBlanc, Jr. The 55 average speed figure leads the field and an 18% career win rate adds credibility to the profile. At 3/1 on the morning line, this is a horse offering real value for what the numbers suggest is the top contender.

place6SummonyourcourageML 2/1

Summonyourcourage comes in rated just a tick below at 85.97, boasts the same 55 average speed figure as our top pick, and is the morning-line second choice at 2/1. Rafael Manuel Hernandez rides for trainer Katerina Vassilieva, who has been active on the Woodbine dirt. This one is very live for the win as well — don't pigeonhole it as a place horse only.

show2Lean Music MachineML 7/2

Lean Music Machine checks in at 82.50 on our ratings scale and gets a solid average speed figure of 54 to go with it. Eswan Flores takes the mount for Devon Gittens, who also trains Glasweigian in this same race — a two-pronged stable attack. At 7/2, Lean Music Machine rounds out the exacta and trifecta plays neatly at a fair price.

Our three free picks today span both early and middle portions of the card. Instant Response opens the day's action in the 6½-furlong maiden claimer — a distance that typically rewards horses with early tactical speed on Woodbine's dirt. Two races later, Next Pitch lines up in an optional claimer at the same trip, and with conditions looking consistent throughout the afternoon, horses that can settle just off the pace and kick home look well-positioned in both spots.

Bridging the first and second thirds of the card, Ever Dangerous draws our eye in the Race 2 claiming mile-and-a-sixteenth — a distance that asks a bit more from horses and often rewards class. At 6/5 on the morning line, the market agrees with us, but our TrackWiz rating of 89.71 justifies the short price. Keep an eye on whether early pace pressure develops; if the front end gets contested, closers could be live underneath.

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Race 4

6:38 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

Pharoah's Affair enters as an even-money chalk against a field of maidens going 1 1/8 miles on the dirt — the question isn't who wins, it's who shows up to challenge.

win6Pharoah's AffairML EVN

Pharoah's Affair owns the field's top TrackWiz rating at a clean 90.00 — the highest score we're posting across the entire card today — and hits the board as the even-money morning-line favorite. Rafael Manuel Hernandez gets the call for trainer Katerina Vassilieva, a combo that is clearly pointing this horse for a big effort. In a maiden special weight going a route of ground, a horse this dominant in the metrics is worth respecting at any price.

place1Afleet FlatterML 5/2

Afleet Flatter draws the rail for trainer Kevin Attard — one of Woodbine's elite conditioners — and carries a 70.81 TrackWiz rating that sits comfortably second in the field. Keveh Nicholls gets the mount, and the 5/2 morning line reflects the stable's confidence. If the favorite is beatable, Afleet Flatter is the most likely spoiler.

show4Yorkton's TaffyML 6/1

Yorkton's Taffy is interesting at 6/1 on the morning line, rated 63.21 by our model — third-best in the race — with Fraser Aebly aboard for the experienced Josie Carroll barn. A 52 average speed figure over dirt is workable at this distance, and the show position looks like the floor for a horse from this operation. Worth including in your exotics.

Race 5

7:12 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Sheshimaintenance enters with the most eye-catching win percentage in the field and the highest TrackWiz number, making this allowance optional claimer on the turf look like a near single for the top pick.

win6SheshimaintenanceML 2/1

Sheshimaintenance is hard to fade — a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 leads this field by over 20 points, and a 40% career win rate is a genuinely elite number at any level. Trainer Zeljko Krcmar sends out Fraser Aebly, and the 54 average speed figure is right there with the best turf numbers on this card. At 2/1 on the morning line, this is the TrackWiz best bet of the race.

place4Dazzling CruiserML 9/2

Dazzling Cruiser rates 68.53 on our scale with a 15% career win figure and draws Emma-Jayne Wilson for trainer Steven Chircop. The 9/2 morning line feels just right — this is a horse capable of running into the exacta without needing to catch the favorite. A 54 average speed figure on turf is solid, and the place spot is where the value lives at that price.

show2Star AttractionML 6/1

Star Attraction is a name worth circling at 6/1 — a 20% career win rate is among the better figures in the field and trainer Kevin Attard has a history of placing horses well in these spots. Pietro Moran rides, and the 53 average speed figure keeps this one competitive. At 6/1 in the show position, Star Attraction adds real overlay value to your exotics.

Race 6

7:45 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Turf

A maiden turf sprint with several first-time starters and horses with limited data — ratings are tight at the top and the outcome hinges on which horses have been hiding their best form.

win7GhostfaceML 2/1

Ghostface breaks from post seven and enters as the 2/1 morning-line favorite with a TrackWiz rating of 58.33 — tops in this field. Trainer Mark E. Casse is one of North America's premier conditioners and wins with debut starters at a strong clip, making no-speed-figure runners from his barn worth trusting. Sahin Civaci gets the mount, and in a maiden turf sprint where pedigree and preparation matter, the Casse-Civaci connection is a meaningful edge.

place1KiaraML 5/2

Kiara exits the Kevin Attard barn at 5/2 on the morning line — another top-tier Woodbine trainer — and holds a 57.50 TrackWiz rating, essentially deadlocked with the top pick. Romero Ramsay Maragh rides, and Attard's barn regularly produces sharp debut performers on the grass. In a race this close at the top, the place ticket on Kiara is a logical and value-sound play.

show5Shades of SilverML 4/1

Shades of Silver is listed at 4/1 with a 55.00 rating — third in the field — and while there's no average speed figure on record, trainer Rachel Halden has this one primed for a turf debut with David Moran named. The morning line suggests market respect, and in a maiden sprint where anything can happen, the show spot at 4/1 is a fair-value hedge in your exotics.

Race 7

8:15 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Wembley Avenue and Royal Presence sit atop this allowance optional claiming field with a noticeable gap to the rest — expect these two to be involved deep into the stretch over 1 1/16 miles of dirt.

win6Wembley AvenueML 2/1

Wembley Avenue leads all TrackWiz ratings in Race 7 at 88.54 and hits the board as the 2/1 morning-line second choice, which means there's slight overlay value given the numbers. Trainer Sid C. Attard — one of Woodbine's most reliable names — puts Sahin Civaci up, and a 16% career win rate at this level supports the profile. At 1 1/16 miles on the dirt, this one has the figures to dominate.

place3Royal PresenceML 5/2

Royal Presence checks in at 82.39 on our scale and is the morning-line favorite at 5/2 with Fraser Aebly aboard for trainer Sean Smullen. A 20% career win rate is a strong mark at the allowance level, and the 53 average speed figure fits this distance nicely. The place ticket here is very live — this horse could easily flip the result on the top pick.

show4Running On TimeML 8/1

Running On Time is an intriguing show play at 8/1 on the morning line — the third-highest rating in the race at 69.05 and a 20% career win rate that matches Royal Presence. Eswan Flores rides for trainer Michael P. De Paulo, who also sends out Maker's Flatter, a two-entry stable that often has a plan. The 54 average speed figure gives this one real competitive standing at a generous price.

Race 8

8:46 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Two horses — Takemetothebeach and Like the King — dominate the TrackWiz ratings in this allowance optional claiming spot, with a real spread between the top pair and the rest of the six-horse field.

win1TakemetothebeachML 2/1

Takemetothebeach leads all comers with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and draws post one with Pietro Moran up for trainer William Tharrenos. An 18% career win rate is solid at this class level, and the 54 average speed figure is right in line with the best in the field. At 2/1, this looks like a confident top selection in a race where the numbers make a compelling case.

place5Like the KingML 9/5

Like the King rates second in the field at 78.66 and comes in as the 9/5 morning-line favorite — meaning the public actually has it ahead of our top pick on price alone. Trainer Mark E. Casse sends out Rafael Manuel Hernandez, a powerful combination at Woodbine, and a 13% career win figure is backed by the Casse barn's consistent placement. This one could easily reverse the result.

show4GrandsonML 8/1

Grandson is a sneaky show play at 8/1 on the morning line — the 55.59 TrackWiz rating puts this one third in the race, and Luis Contreras gets aboard for the Katerina Vassilieva stable. A 14% career win rate is respectable, and at a price well above the top two, Grandson offers genuine overlay value in the exotics. Worth including in a trifecta keyed off the top pair.

Race 9

9:18 PM EDT

Stakes · 5 fur · Turf

The stakes race on turf at five furlongs features a morning-line favorite in Outlaw Kid, but Cost of War presents an intriguing value case with the top TrackWiz rating in the field — this one is worth the debate.

win7Cost of WarML 6/1

Cost of War owns the highest TrackWiz rating in this stakes field at 82.71 and brings an eye-popping 50% career win rate to the table — by far the best winning figure in the race. Fraser Aebly rides for Hall of Fame trainer Mark E. Casse, and an average speed figure of 56 matches the field's best. At 6/1 on the morning line against a public choice at 7/5, this is the kind of price gap that makes exotic tickets and win bets extremely interesting.

place2Outlaw KidML 7/5

Outlaw Kid is the morning-line favorite at 7/5 and backs it up with a 76.56 rating and a 26% career win rate. Trainer George Weaver sends the horse out with Sahin Civaci, and an average speed figure of 58 — the highest single mark on this entire card — is a serious number for a five-furlong turf dash. The horse may well win outright, which is why the place position is a comfortable landing spot.

show3Poulin in O TML 5/2

Poulin in O T brings a 33% career win rate into this spot — one of the stronger figures in the field — and rates 73.35 on our scale, third-best. Ryan Munger takes the mount for trainer Steven Owens, and the 56 average speed figure ties with several rivals. At 5/2, this one offers a fair show price in what could be a front-loaded pace scenario at five furlongs on the turf.

Race 10

9:50 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Mobula and Angel Danielle headline a competitive allowance optional claiming sprint on the dirt, but Empty Gesture lurks at a generous price with the field's best average speed figure — making this a three-horse race worth dissecting carefully.

win4MobulaML 2/1

Mobula tops the TrackWiz ratings in Race 10 at 84.99 and comes in as the 2/1 morning-line choice with Romero Ramsay Maragh in the irons for trainer Audrey Cheung. A 15% career win rate is respectable, and the 55 average speed figure is one of the better numbers in the field. Post four is a clean draw at 6½ furlongs, and there's no reason to look past this one as the race's top selection.

place2Angel DanielleML 6/1

Angel Danielle is a genuine threat at 6/1 — a 40% career win rate is exceptional at any level and stands well above the rest of this field. Emma-Jayne Wilson gets the mount for trainer Abraham R. Katryan, and a 54 average speed figure means this horse has the tools to compete on pure ability. The morning-line price feels generous for a horse with those win figures, making the place ticket outstanding value.

show6Empty GestureML 8/1

Empty Gesture is a legitimate show contender at 8/1 — the 56 average speed figure is the best single number in this race, and an 18% career win rate shows this horse competes consistently. Pietro Moran rides for trainer Angus Buntain, and the pace at six and a half furlongs could set up perfectly for a closer with figures like these. Don't overlook the overlay — 8/1 for a horse with the field's top speed number is worth a serious look.

Race 11

10:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

The nightcap goes on the turf at 1 1/16 miles with four horses rated above 75 on the TrackWiz scale — this is a deep, competitive claiming field where the top of the ticket is bunched tightly enough to make exotics extremely playable.

win7Big ImaginationML 2/1

Big Imagination heads into the finale with the field's top TrackWiz rating at 83.85 and a 33% career win rate that stands out immediately in a claiming field. Romero Ramsay Maragh rides for trainer Kerron Palmer, and a 54 average speed figure on turf at this distance fits the profile well. At 2/1 on the morning line, the numbers and the market are aligned — this is a confident top selection.

place1StratosphericML 6/1

Stratospheric is a compelling place play at 6/1 — a TrackWiz rating of 82.71 makes this the second-best horse in the race by our model, yet the morning line reflects no public love. Emma-Jayne Wilson gets aboard for trainer Nicholas Nosowenko, and a 53 average speed figure is competitive going 1 1/16 on the turf. At a price that feels like a full number long, the place ticket here is one of the better overlays on today's card.

show3DafinaML 5/2

Dafina rounds out the show position with an 81.81 TrackWiz rating — third in the field — and a 25% career win rate that is among the better figures in this claiming group. Fraser Aebly rides for trainer Kevin Attard, and a 54 average speed figure puts this one right in the mix on turf. In a race with four legitimate contenders, Dafina at 5/2 provides solid show value and is a key part of any trifecta construction.

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A comfortable August afternoon, a firm turf, and a dirt strip that should play fair — Woodbine is set up for a competitive Sunday card. Our free best bets — Instant Response, Ever Dangerous, and Next Pitch — give every reader a head start, but the real action is in the premium races. Cost of War at 6/1 in the stakes and Pharoah's Affair at even money headlining the dirt maiden are the marquee spots. Get the full analysis, exotic strategies, and pace projections at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck at the windows.

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