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Will Rogers Picks & Predictions — September 29, 2026

September 29, 202610 racesAll Will Rogers picks

Will Rogers Downs serves up a full 10-race card on Tuesday, September 29, and the conditions are about as cooperative as you could ask for in late September — cloudy skies and a comfortable 80°F keeping things neutral on the dirt. No weather excuses today; it comes down to pure ability and execution.

This is a quintessential quarter horse program, with distances ranging from a blistering 250 yards all the way out to 870 yards, so pace scenarios shift dramatically from race to race. That variety is what makes a card like this fun — the strategy you apply in Race 1 at 300 yards looks nothing like what you're doing in Race 2 at 870 yards. Stay sharp and adjust.

We've got 10 races breaking down across allowances, claiming events, and maiden fields — a solid mix that gives both casual bettors and serious players plenty of angles to work with. Three races are open to all TrackWiz readers, with the full card available to subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:00 PM EDT

Allowance · 300 yd · Dirt

One horse stands well above the field on ratings in this 300-yard allowance opener, but the morning line suggests the public may push him below true value — making pace and connections the secondary story.

win4Inner GML 8/5

Inner G draws our top rating in the field at 89.12 and is the lone horse carrying a 20% career win rate — double what most rivals can claim in this five-horse field. The 8/5 morning line reflects public respect, but that rating gap over Favorite Turnpike (79.01) and River Flower (78.93) is meaningful over a short sprint like 300 yards where ability shows up fast. Trainer Randy Chavez sends him out with Erik N. Esqueda in the irons, a pairing worth noting in a sprint where gate speed and early decisions matter. Our TrackWiz analysis makes Inner G the clear top selection here.

place3Favorite TurnpikeML 3/1

Favorite Turnpike slots in at a 79.01 rating — virtually identical to River Flower — but trainer Matt Whitekiller and jockey Cody Rodger Smith give this runner a competitive connections edge in a short field. At 3/1 on the morning line, there's legitimate place value if Inner G has any trouble, and a five-horse field at 300 yards leaves little room for chaos. He's our place anchor in any exotics structure.

show1River FlowerML 2/1

River Flower comes in with a 78.93 TrackWiz rating, essentially a dead heat with Favorite Turnpike on paper, and at 2/1 morning line she's the second choice despite our third-ranked projection. Trainer Luis Villafranco and jockey Randy Vega team up here, and a 12% career win rate is respectable in this company. She rounds out the show position as a capable exacta/trifecta wheel piece at a potentially short price.

Race 2

5:28 PM EDT

Allowance · 870 yd · Dirt

A dominant top-rated horse faces a spread-out field in this 870-yard allowance, but the longer distance and a pair of interesting underneath prices make the exotics worth constructing carefully.

win2SlamdunnkML 8/5

Slamdunnk tops the TrackWiz ratings at 89.12 — a significant margin over second-rated Pete Be Rowdy at 67.05 — and the 8/5 morning line confirms public agreement. What's interesting is the 870-yard distance, which is long for a quarter-horse-style card and rewards horses with not just raw speed but stamina through the stretch. Trainer Stacey L. Capps has Ronnie Huckaby in the saddle, and a 12% career win rate in a field where several rivals are sitting at 4-7% makes Slamdunnk the clear selection. Back him confidently but shop the ticket for value.

place1Pete Be RowdyML 6/1

Pete Be Rowdy is the clear second choice in our model at 67.05, which is a substantial drop from the top but a meaningful gap above the rest. The 6/1 morning line is interesting — the public may be underrating him relative to his position in the ratings hierarchy, giving place bettors some overlay potential. Trainer Gary K. Walker and jockey Cordarelton J. Benn have the horse pointed at a distance that could suit a runner with some staying power.

show8Bp Tres CartelML 6/1

Bp Tres Cartel at 6/1 morning line is our show pick, carrying a 53.43 rating that positions him third in our model — ahead of Eye Am Corona despite that runner's eye-catching 16% career win rate. Trainer Robert L. Esqueda (who also has Jess a Bear in this race) clearly believes in sending horses who can handle distance, and Bp Tres Cartel's rating gives him a credible shot at the board. Use him underneath in trifectas at what could be a generous price.

Race 3

5:53 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claiming sprint at 250 yards with all runners at zero career wins — our model splits the field with a clear top choice, but a pair of double-digit longshots rank surprisingly high and could deliver exotic value.

win2Candys PursuitML 4/1

Candys Pursuit tops the TrackWiz ratings in this maiden field at 81.37, and trainer Stacy Charette-Hill has Cristian R. Esqueda aboard at 4/1 on the morning line — a price that makes her legitimate win value in a wide-open maiden field. At 250 yards, this is a pure explosion race where the gate break is everything, and our model projects her with a double-digit lead over the next cluster of horses. In a field of maiden claimers with zero career wins across the board, that top rating carries extra weight.

place7Hawk Yea Im FastML 15/1

Hawk Yea Im Fast is our place pick at 15/1 morning line — this is the value angle of the race. A 69.58 TrackWiz rating puts him second in our model, but he's buried in the morning line, likely because bettors are gravitating toward program favorites like Reds Wagon (2/1) and Teller Shes Hott (3/1). Trainer Haley N. Hobbs also runs Dead Game Zoomie in this same race, splitting attention, but Hawk Yea Im Fast's rating says he belongs on the trifecta ticket at a generous price.

show10Dead Game ZoomieML 10/1

Dead Game Zoomie comes in at 68.97 on our ratings scale — just a tick below stablemate Hawk Yea Im Fast — and trainer Haley N. Hobbs has Fernando Fonseca-Soto in the irons at 10/1. Running two horses in a 10-horse maiden sprint is a bold move from Hobbs, and it suggests stable confidence in this pair. Dead Game Zoomie slots in as our show pick and a key piece in multi-horse exotic plays.

Our three free previews today cover Races 1, 2, and 3, and there's a common thread worth noting: all three land on the front half of the card, giving you a foundation to build multi-race wagers from. Inner G (Race 1, 8/5 morning line) leads the way with our highest free-race rating, and we like the allowance condition as a spot where class shows up quickly over a short 300-yard dash. In Race 2, Slamdunnk gets our nod in a longer 870-yard allowance — a completely different tactical race where early speed matters a lot less and sustained run matters a lot more.

Race 3 is the most intriguing of the free trio. Candys Pursuit opens at a tempting 4/1 in a 250-yard maiden claimer — that morning line suggests the market isn't fully sold, but our rating of 81.37 points to a horse with a real shot at breaking through. Maiden claimers at short distances can be chaotic, but value like this is worth a look, especially as a part of an early Pick 3.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:18 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 350 yd · Dirt

Candys Magic Lady heads this 350-yard maiden claiming field with the top rating and a live rider-trainer combo, but the morning-line favorite Famous Won looms as a legitimate threat and the bottom half of the field is bunched enough to complicate exacta structure.

win1Candys Magic LadyML 3/1

Candys Magic Lady posts the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.08 despite going off at 3/1 — slightly behind morning-line favorite Famous Won at 2/1. That's a mild overlay situation our model wants to exploit. Trainer Jason L. Olmstead puts his own son Ryder Olmstead in the irons, a tight family connection that often signals stable confidence in a horse's readiness. At 350 yards, she gets a bit more time to assert her edge over a maiden field where the rating gap to the next tier is meaningful.

place2Famous WonML 2/1

Famous Won is the morning-line favorite at 2/1, and a 77.95 rating makes her a legitimate contender — just not quite the top of our model. Trainer Gerardo Quinones-Sarmiento and jockey Jonathan Dominguez form a pairing with experience in short sprints, and in a nine-horse maiden field, landing on the board is a very realistic outcome. She's a strong place anchor and works well in exacta boxes with Candys Magic Lady.

show9Kool Snow WagonML 5/1

Kool Snow Wagon at 5/1 morning line holds a 70.40 TrackWiz rating — third in the field and a comfortable margin above the mid-pack cluster. Trainer Gary K. Walker sends Cordarelton J. Benn aboard, a jockey who's active throughout this card and clearly comfortable with the conditions. At a fair morning-line price, Kool Snow Wagon is our show selection and a solid trifecta inclusion.

Race 5

6:43 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

Rykar stands out as a heavy model favorite in this 10-horse maiden claiming field at 250 yards, but a pair of double-digit morning liners rank just beneath him — creating real exotic opportunity if the chalk dominates as expected.

win5RykarML 2/1

Rykar tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.35 and draws a 2/1 morning line in a field of first-time or maiden horses at 250 yards — that's a horse the market respects and our model fully endorses. Trainer Everardo N. Escamilla-Gonzalez sends Juan Arellano to the gate, and at a pure sprint distance where raw ability is the great equalizer, Rykar's separation from the field is the key angle. In a 10-horse maiden field with no career wins on the board, a double-digit rating edge over third-ranked Ebw Pecos is as clean a top pick as you'll find tonight.

place2Fabulous Desire EbML 10/1

Fabulous Desire Eb at 10/1 morning line is one of the better place values on the card — a 76.88 TrackWiz rating that ranks her second in the field behind only Rykar, yet the public is sending her off at double digits. Trainer Jose Angel Burciaga has Roman Cruz aboard, and in a 250-yard dash where fractions of a second separate the field, her model positioning says she absolutely belongs on the board. This is a prime spot for an overlay play in the exacta.

show7Ebw PecosML 3/1

Ebw Pecos sits at 75.06 in our ratings — third in the field — with trainer Tyler Cole Crawford and jockey Edwin G. Escobedo combining at 3/1 morning line. Crawford also runs Kween Victoria in this race, but Ebw Pecos is clearly the barn's top hope based on our model numbers. At a fair price, he rounds out the show slot and adds depth to trifecta tickets.

Race 6

7:08 PM EDT

Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

A 10-horse claiming field at 300 yards with one horse dominating our ratings — but the show pick at 15/1 is quietly one of the better underneath values on tonight's card.

win5Redneck FunML 2/1

Redneck Fun leads our TrackWiz ratings in this claiming field at 88.54 — the highest figure in the race by a wide margin — and Trainer Hernesto Ramirez sends Juan Arellano to the gate at 2/1. The modest career win rate of 3% might give pause, but in a claiming field where the top rating often signals recent form improvement, this horse's model number is what drives our confidence. At 300 yards, ability asserts itself quickly, and Redneck Fun's separation from the field makes him a clear top selection.

place2Toe ToeML 4/1

Toe Toe comes in with a 74.12 TrackWiz rating — second in the field — and carries an 11% career win rate that matches Tess Me Jessie's but with a significantly higher model projection. Trainer Stacey L. Capps puts Cody Rodger Smith up at 4/1, a pairing active throughout today's card, which suggests they're in form. Toe Toe is a natural place selection and an ideal single-race exacta partner to Redneck Fun.

show7Mistery Ten FourML 15/1

Mistery Ten Four at 15/1 morning line is one of tonight's better values — a 68.98 TrackWiz rating puts him third in the field ahead of Relentless Lady, Fabulous and Fancy, and the rest, yet the morning line buries him at long odds. Trainer Edward L. Webb and jockey Edwin G. Escobedo combine at a price that could deliver real show overlay. At 8% career win rate in a field where some rivals are at 3-5%, his record isn't elite, but the rating says he belongs on the trifecta ticket.

Race 7

7:33 PM EDT

Maiden · 250 yd · Dirt

All-maiden 250-yard sprint with one clear standout on our ratings — but the morning line sets up an intriguing gap between our top pick and the public's 2/1 favorite, making this a potential value race at the top.

win1Kisses N CandyML 3/1

Kisses N Candy leads the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 by a wide margin in a nine-horse all-maiden field, and yet the morning line has Hott Envy as the 2/1 favorite while Kisses N Candy sits at 3/1. That gap is our play — trainer Fernando Ivan Manriquez puts Edwin G. Escobedo in the irons, a jockey who's seen plenty of action on this card and appears comfortable with the conditions. At 250 yards, there's no hiding raw ability, and a 28-point rating gap between Kisses N Candy and Hott Envy is as clear a case as our model makes all night.

place2Hott EnvyML 2/1

Hott Envy is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 with a 58.33 TrackWiz rating — well below our top pick but leading the second tier of the field. Trainer Jed H. Vane and jockey Oscar Villa have the market's backing, and in a maiden sprint where upsets are always possible, keeping the 2/1 shot on your place ticket is sound risk management. She's a reasonable exacta partner even if our model has her ranked behind Kisses N Candy.

show9Phun LovinML 9/2

Phun Lovin at 9/2 morning line posts a 54.17 rating — third in the field in our model — with trainer Michelle Hurdle and jockey Javier Hernandez-Gallardo, who also partner on Idgie in an earlier race tonight. Third-place ratings in all-maiden sprints often translate well to board finishes in short fields, and Phun Lovin's 9/2 price offers fair show value. She's the logical trifecta closer in a race where the top two should fight it out.

Race 8

7:58 PM EDT

Claiming · 330 yd · Dirt

A full 10-horse claiming field at 330 yards where our top pick carries a significant ratings edge over the morning-line favorite — and a 10/1 place selection adds genuine exotic intrigue.

win7Kosmic LightsML 3/1

Kosmic Lights is the clear TrackWiz top pick at 87.08 — the highest rating in the field — and posts at 3/1 morning line with trainer Michelle Hurdle and jockey Javier Hernandez-Gallardo, who team up again after sharing mounts throughout the card. What's especially notable is the 21% career win rate, which is well above the field median and signals a horse that actually converts when it matters. Our model's gap over second-rated Anna Jess Chacha (64.83) is substantial, making Kosmic Lights a strong win play at a fair price.

place9Anna Jess ChachaML 10/1

Anna Jess Chacha at 10/1 is a genuine value play in the place position — a 64.83 TrackWiz rating with a 14% career win rate, which is competitive in this claiming company. Trainer Valerie Torres sends Jasten Pedraza to post, and at double-digit odds on the morning line, this horse is being significantly underrated relative to her model projection. If Kosmic Lights clears the field as expected, Anna Jess Chacha has the profile to grab the place spot.

show6One Fabulous MiracleML 9/2

One Fabulous Miracle at 9/2 morning line brings the field's highest career win rate at 28% — a standout figure in a race where most horses sit in the teens or low twenties. Trainer Luz Chavira and jockey Erik N. Esqueda give this runner a live connection, and a 58.28 TrackWiz rating makes her third in our model. The combination of strong career conversion and a top-three rating makes her a logical show selection and a trifecta must-use.

Race 9

8:23 PM EDT

Allowance · 250 yd · Dirt

A competitive allowance field at 250 yards with a clear model leader coming from off the morning line's top price — and two legitimate value plays lurking underneath with strong career win percentages.

win9SopheyML 3/1

Sophey tops our TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 in a 10-horse allowance field and pairs a 20% career win rate with trainer Jason L. Olmstead sending out son Ryder Olmstead — a family stable that showed up with confidence in Race 4 earlier tonight. At 3/1, she's not the public's top choice (Pevs Candy P draws 2/1), but our model puts her clearly ahead of the field. Allowance conditions typically attract horses with genuine ability, and Sophey's rating projects her as the class of this sprint.

place5Fleeting HeartML 6/1

Fleeting Heart at 6/1 morning line is quietly one of the night's better place values — a 25% career win rate tied for the field's best and a 72.46 TrackWiz rating that puts her second in our model. Trainer Dee Keener and jockey Mario Delgado bring a horse who has consistently found ways to hit the board throughout her career. At that price and with those numbers, she's an easy place-ticket addition and works well in exacta combinations with Sophey.

show7Pevs Candy PML 2/1

Pevs Candy P is the 2/1 morning-line favorite with a 25% career win rate, matching Fleeting Heart for the field's best — yet our model has her third behind Sophey and Fleeting Heart. Trainer Tyler Cole Crawford has been active all card and clearly has horses fit to run. At 2/1 she may be a short show price, but her career conversion rate is impossible to ignore, and she's a core piece of any multi-horse exotic structure in this race.

Race 10

8:48 PM EDT

Maiden · 330 yd · Dirt

A 10-horse maiden field at 330 yards closes out the night with the morning-line favorite aligning closely with our top pick — but two double-digit prices rank high enough in our model to make the trifecta a compelling play.

win2Lonestar JessML 2/1

Lonestar Jess tops our TrackWiz ratings at 77.03 and aligns perfectly with the 2/1 morning line, with trainer Jason L. Olmstead — who had success earlier tonight — sending out Ramiro Haro Garcia. The rating gap between Lonestar Jess and the rest of the field isn't enormous, but in a maiden sprint at 330 yards, a clean break and early positioning can lock up the win before the field can react. Our model makes her the clear top choice on a card where the Olmstead barn has shown up ready.

place5Kiss My TailML 8/1

Kiss My Tail at 8/1 morning line is a legitimate overlay in the place spot — a 70.64 TrackWiz rating puts her second in the field, yet the public is sending her off at double digits. Trainer Samuel Mendoza and jockey Ruben Castro team up in a closer profile that could benefit from any early speed issues in a 10-horse sprint. At 8/1, the place overlay here is one of the better values to close out the evening card.

show8Wrs TellerssintachaML 10/1

Wrs Tellerssintacha at 10/1 morning line is third in our model at 70.08 — a virtual dead heat with Kiss My Tail — and trainer Samuel E. Valdivia sends Bryan Candanosa to the gate. Two horses within a half-point of each other in our ratings, both at double-digit morning-line prices, make the back half of this trifecta an intriguing box play. Use both Kiss My Tail and Wrs Tellerssintacha underneath Lonestar Jess to close the card on a potentially profitable note.

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Bottom line: Will Rogers delivers a fast, punchy Tuesday card with legitimate plays scattered from top to bottom. Inner G and Slamdunnk headline the free side, while the premium card features several races where our ratings diverge meaningfully from the morning line — always the most actionable situation. Check out the full analysis at TrackWiz Premium, and good luck at the windows today.

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