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Will Rogers Picks & Predictions — October 4, 2026

October 4, 202610 racesAll Will Rogers picks

Perfect fall racing weather greets bettors at Will Rogers Downs this Sunday — clear skies, 75°F, and a fast dirt surface that should reward horses with early zip. That's the kind of setup quarter horse fans dream about, and with a full 10-race card on tap, there's plenty of action from gate to wire.

Today's card is a nice mix of conditions — Claiming, Allowance, and Maiden events spread across sprint distances ranging from 300 yards all the way out to 870 yards, giving us everything from blink-and-you'll-miss-it sprints to a race with some actual ground to cover. Our TrackWiz ratings span from the low 80s to a top-end 89.12, which tells you the card is competitive but not without separation — there are angles here worth pressing.

Three races are open to all readers today, and we think they tell an interesting story about how this card sets up. Let's dig in.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 350 yd · Dirt

One horse towers over this six-horse claiming sprint — the question is whether the morning-line chalk can be caught at a short price, or if value lurks in the mid-field.

win1Manhattan At SunsetML 8/5

Manhattan At Sunset holds the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 89.12 — a full 36 points clear of the second-rated runner — and that kind of separation in a six-horse claiming field is hard to ignore. Trainer Matt Whitekiller sends out the 8/5 morning-line favorite with Cody Rodger Smith in the irons, a familiar partnership at this level. With a 12% career win rate that's respectable in quarter-horse claiming company, this horse has shown the ability to convert when it matters. At 350 yards there's no pace scenario to hide behind — the best horse usually wins, and our ratings say that's #1.

place6The Cowboy KindML 4/1

The Cowboy Kind (6) is the second-highest rated horse in here at 53.32 and draws the outside post under Francisco Quintero at a workable 4/1 morning line. Trainer Luz Chavira has this one positioned at a fair price for the class. In a short field where the chalk could be squeezed at payout, The Cowboy Kind offers a solid safety net for exacta and place-ticket players.

show2Mz JayhawkML 10/1

Mz Jayhawk (2) is an interesting third piece at 10/1 morning line — trainer Able Aguilar keeps her competitive in this spot, and her TrackWiz rating of 47.45 is enough to be in the mix for a share of the purse. As a longshot in the show slot, she gives your trifecta tickets a nice points boost without breaking the bank. Jockey Aram S. Martinez knows how to get horses out of the gate quickly at 350 yards, which is often all the difference.

Race 2

5:25 PM EDT

Maiden · 350 yd · Dirt

A wide-open maiden sprint with a trio of horses bunched near the top of the ratings — and the morning line has the two biggest threats nearly separated by just a point, setting up a tense short-field scramble.

win1Jm Painted SkyML 3/1

Jm Painted Sky (1) earns the top TrackWiz rating in this ten-horse maiden field at 85.46, and at 3/1 on the morning line there's genuine value here compared to the market. Trainer Dee Keener also saddles El Taco in this race, which tells you the barn is loaded for bear today — and Keener doesn't double up without confidence in both. Jockey Ramiro Haro Garcia takes the call, and at 350 yards a clean break from the rail could be decisive in a wide-open maiden event.

place5Tres of LightML 2/1

Tres of Light (5) is practically a co-favorite in our model, rating 84.49 — just under a point behind the top pick — and carries the morning-line chalk at 2/1. Trainer Eddie D. Willis places this one thoughtfully in maiden company, and jockey Mario Delgado has the clock-sense to get horses into full gear at the sprint distance. If the pace scenario bunches up out of the gate, Tres of Light has the raw rating to be right there at the wire.

show4El TacoML 10/1

El Taco (4) comes in as the third-rated horse in the field at 76.88 and is a sneaky 10/1 on the morning line — that's underlay territory if our model is right. Trainer Dee Keener's double-entry suggests genuine stable confidence, and jockey Roman Cruz gets the mount. For trifecta players, El Taco is a must-use underneath given the rating edge over the rest of the field.

Race 3

5:53 PM EDT

Allowance · 870 yd · Dirt

A small but talent-loaded allowance field at 870 yards — the longer route flips the script from the day's sprint-heavy card, and pace becomes a real factor in this five-horse battle.

win5O Donovan RossaML 2/1

O Donovan Rossa (5) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.54 and carries a 27% career win rate — strong numbers in allowance company at any track. Trainer Dee Keener and jockey Roman Cruz form one of the card's tightest partnerships on the day, with Cruz getting multiple mounts across the card for this barn. At 870 yards — the longest route on today's program — a horse with that kind of win efficiency and a top rating is the right place to anchor your ticket.

place1Chicks CartellML 8/5

Chicks Cartell (1) posts a jaw-dropping 44% career win rate, the highest of any horse on today's entire card, and rates second in this field at 80.74. Trainer Jesus Ruben Ruiz and jockey Gonzalo Gutierrez know exactly what they have here, and the 8/5 morning line reflects that confidence. Even if O Donovan Rossa gets the better of things at the wire, a horse that wins nearly half its career starts is almost certain to be on the board.

show4Gamblin SoldierML 5/1

Gamblin Soldier (4) slots in at 5/1 with a 19% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 67.81 — well behind the top two, but a clear third-best in a field of five. Trainer Anthony Gordon Jones puts Jacob Cardenas aboard, and at the longer 870-yard distance stamina matters as much as speed. If either of the top two get into trouble or fade late, Gamblin Soldier is the most likely beneficiary.

The free portion of today's card is a strong starting point. Race 1 gets things rolling in Claiming company at 350 yards, where Manhattan At Sunset carries our highest TrackWiz rating on the card at 89.12 — and yet sits at a very playable 8/5 on the morning line. That's the kind of number that should shorten fast once money hits the windows, so getting there early matters. Over in Race 2, Jm Painted Sky draws our eye in the Maiden sprint — a 3/1 morning line with an 85.46 rating suggests a horse that figures to be underlaid if the public catches on. Then Race 3 stretches the field to 870 yards in an Allowance event, and that distance jump alone changes the pace picture entirely. O Donovan Rossa at 2/1 with an 88.54 rating is our top pick there and one of the day's most solid plays.

The through-line connecting these three free races? Clean, fast conditions favor horses that break sharp — and on a 75°F clear day with a dry track, expect times to be right on the quick side. All three of our free picks profile as horses that can get to the front early and make it stick.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:18 PM EDT

Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

The morning line has a short-priced 2/1 favorite in a nine-horse field, but our model flips the script — the top-rated runner goes off at a much juicier 6/1, making this a prime value race at the 300-yard distance.

win3Dolls Flying HigherML 6/1

Dolls Flying Higher (3) is our top-rated horse in this field at 82.71 and is posting at 6/1 on the morning line — that's a significant disconnect our model loves. The horse's 33% career win rate is the best in this field by a wide margin and suggests a runner that consistently performs when the gate opens. Trainer Waylan Melton also sends out Ima Fancy Chrome in this race, showing stable confidence in the distance, and jockey Juan Pulido gets the prime mount on the higher-rated entry. In a 300-yard race where there are no second chances, backing the highest win rate at a generous price is sound handicapping.

place4Coronas GolddiggerML 2/1

Coronas Golddigger (4) is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 75.81, and while our model ranks her second-best, she's far from a throw-out. Jockey Edwin G. Escobedo is sharp at the gate — critical at 300 yards — and trainer Fernando Ivan Manriquez has this filly positioned to run her best. If anything goes sideways with Dolls Flying Higher, Coronas Golddigger is perfectly positioned to collect.

show2Striking StormML 3/1

Striking Storm (2) rates third in the field at 67.95 and gets the 3/1 morning line, which puts her right in the mix for conservative bettors. Trainer Luz Chavira is active across today's card and clearly has horses ready to fire, and Cordarelton J. Benn is an experienced hand at the short sprint distance. She's a natural show anchor for tri players who want to keep their cost down while covering the most likely finishers.

Race 5

6:43 PM EDT

Allowance · 300 yd · Dirt

A ten-horse allowance at 300 yards with a clear top-rated standout, but the morning line has her at just 3/1 — so the real intrigue is finding value underneath in a wide-open supporting cast.

win4Shez a Fabulous GalML 3/1

Shez a Fabulous Gal (4) leads all runners with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — the highest in this field by nearly 10 points — and combines that with a 20% career win rate in allowance company. Trainer Kasey Willis places her at the 300-yard sprint with Gonzalo Gutierrez, one of the busier and more productive jockeys on today's card. At 3/1 she's not a huge overlay, but the rating gap over the field is substantial enough that she's still the right top selection. Speed figures at this distance favor the horse that breaks cleanest, and her profile suggests she does exactly that.

place9Livin D DreamML 2/1

Livin D Dream (9) is the morning-line second favorite at 2/1 with a solid TrackWiz rating of 77.2, and trainer Jason L. Olmstead keeps her right in the mix for this allowance assignment. Jockey Ramiro Haro Garcia has multiple mounts on the card today and is clearly in form. If Shez a Fabulous Gal draws the attention, Livin D Dream is a natural place horse that figures to be on or near the lead throughout the short 300-yard dash.

show7Rippin LindyML 4/1

Rippin Lindy (7) is an intriguing third piece at 4/1 — that morning line suggests the market respects her, and her TrackWiz rating of 66.97 puts her clearly in the upper half of this ten-horse field. Trainer Joe M. Davis sends her out with Edwin G. Escobedo, a jockey who's comfortable at the sprint distance. For multi-race exotic players, she's a cost-effective show horse that keeps your trifectas alive without sacrificing too much ticket price.

Race 6

7:08 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 350 yd · Dirt

Ten first-time winners battle it out in a maiden claiming sprint at 350 yards — with no career wins to sort through, our ratings do the heavy lifting and reveal a clear hierarchy worth trusting.

win9Jc Take Charge FancyML 2/1

Jc Take Charge Fancy (9) earns the top rating in this maiden claiming field at 83.54, and the 2/1 morning line reflects that market respect. Trainer Samuel E. Valdivia hands the reins to Roman Cruz — the same combo that appears in multiple races today, suggesting the barn is dialed in. In maiden events, the horse with the most raw ability typically wins outright, and with a ratings edge of nearly three points over the next-best, Jc Take Charge Fancy looks like the right single here.

place6Jrs Pop a TopML 6/1

Jrs Pop a Top (6) rates second in this field at 80.57 and is listed at a generous 6/1 on the morning line — that's real value if our model has this race right. Trainer Jeffrey A. Tyer sends out this runner with Gonzalo Gutierrez, who's been busy and productive across today's card. In maiden company where the gap between top and bottom is enormous, the second-rated horse at 6/1 is exactly the kind of place play that turns a good day into a great one.

show3Hott ChaseML 3/1

Hott Chase (3) sits third in the ratings at 56.67 and draws the 3/1 morning line — the market has her in the mix even if our model has her a tier below the top two. Trainer Jed H. Vane puts Francisco Calderon on board, and at 350 yards this is strictly a break-and-run proposition. She's the logical show leg for trifecta players looking to keep their structure tight around the top two rated runners.

Race 7

7:33 PM EDT

Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

A deep ten-horse claiming field at 300 yards, but the ratings aren't close at the top — one horse dominates the model, and the interesting play is finding value underneath against a muddled supporting cast.

win6Ss First Down FancyML 2/1

Ss First Down Fancy (6) is the standout of the day in this race, carrying the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 88.54 — matching the top mark on today's entire card. At 2/1 on the morning line, trainer Samuel E. Valdivia has this filly primed for a big effort, and Roman Cruz brings his strong card-wide form to the mount. In a 300-yard sprint, a horse with this kind of ratings separation usually converts — she's as close to a confident single as you'll find on today's card.

place2Pyc GloryML 3/1

Pyc Glory (2) rates second in the field at 71.81 and is morning-lined at 3/1, making her a natural place ticket companion to the top pick. Trainer Hugo Ontiveros sends her out with Ramiro Haro Garcia, who's had a productive book of mounts today. While there's a 17-point gap to the top-rated runner, the margin over the rest of this field is comfortable enough that second seems well within reach.

show8One Famous CandidateML 10/1

One Famous Candidate (8) comes in at 10/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 62.51 and a 12% career win rate — respectable for a claiming-level runner. Trainer Juan Jose Gomez puts Cordarelton J. Benn aboard, a jockey who knows how to get horses out of the gate sharply at the short distance. At double-digit odds, this horse offers trifecta players a legitimate third choice at a price that could make the payout meaningful.

Race 8

7:58 PM EDT

Allowance · 330 yd · Dirt

A ten-horse allowance at 330 yards where the ratings are clear at the top but the supporting cast includes several live mid-priced runners — the show spot could be worth more than the odds suggest.

win1Mr ScarML 2/1

Mr Scar (1) leads the field with a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 and backs that up with a 25% career win rate in allowance company — one of the stronger profiles on today's card. Trainer Waylan Melton sends him to the rail with Juan Pulido in the saddle, and the 2/1 morning line reflects justified confidence from the market. At 330 yards, breaking clean from the inside post is a significant advantage, and with the top rating in the field, there's little reason to look elsewhere for a win anchor.

place7Dulce Gone WildML 8/1

Dulce Gone Wild (7) rates second in this field at 70.65 — a clear gap behind Mr Scar but well ahead of the pack — and is listed at 8/1 on the morning line. Trainer Mario J. Loza hands the mount to Gilberto Linares, and with a 14% career win rate, this filly has shown she can compete at the allowance level. The 8/1 price on a horse rated second-best makes her an excellent place overlay for players who believe the model.

show9Boaz DynastyML 12/1

Boaz Dynasty (9) rates third in the field at 62.25 with a 16% career win rate and draws a 12/1 morning line — a fair price for a horse that our model puts firmly in the top three. Trainer Marco Adair Chavez-Gutierrez teams with Randy Vega for this assignment, and the career win rate suggests a horse that has competed consistently. As a show leg at 12/1, Boaz Dynasty adds real value to trifecta tickets without requiring a big investment.

Race 9

8:23 PM EDT

Allowance · 300 yd · Dirt

The penultimate race of the night presents a fascinating puzzle — the morning-line favorite at 2/1 isn't our top-rated horse, creating a potential overlay situation that sharp bettors will want to exploit.

win8Union StationML 6/1

Union Station (8) tops the TrackWiz ratings in this ten-horse allowance at 82.71, posting a 33% career win rate that stands out in this field. Trainer Kasey Willis has this runner perfectly placed, and Gonzalo Gutierrez — one of the busiest and most productive jockeys on today's card — gets the call at 300 yards. The 6/1 morning line is a notable price for the highest-rated horse in the race, which is exactly the overlay situation our model is built to identify. At a sprint distance where speed figures and gate efficiency matter most, Union Station's combination of top rating and career win percentage makes a compelling case.

place10Passion for TrainsML 3/1

Passion for Trains (10) rates second in the field at 79.88 — just under Union Station — and is a solid 3/1 on the morning line. Trainer Eddie D. Willis puts Mario Delgado up, and with a 20% career win rate this horse has a proven track record of hitting the board at a consistent clip. If Union Station wins the duel for the lead, Passion for Trains looks like the natural horse to follow across the wire.

show9OurrelentlessdynastyML 2/1

Ourrelentlessdynasty (9) draws the morning-line favorite role at 2/1 but rates third in our model at 78.04 — a slight disconnect that our analysis flags as a mild fade opportunity on top while keeping the horse in the show slot. Trainer Jason L. Olmstead puts his son Ryder Olmstead in the irons, a family connection that often signals trainer confidence. With a 16% career win rate in allowance company, the horse is definitely capable, and at 2/1 it's still worth including in exotics.

Race 10

8:48 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

The card closes with a ten-horse maiden claiming sprint where two horses clearly separate from the field in the ratings — straightforward structure with a potential value play lurking in the show spot.

win1Poetry MannML 2/1

Poetry Mann (1) tops the field at 83.48 and draws the morning-line favoritism at 2/1 — rare alignment between our model and the market that gives us added confidence. Trainer William S. Harris sends her to the gate with Cristian R. Esqueda, and at 300 yards the rail post is an asset for a horse breaking from the inside. In maiden claiming company, a ratings lead of over four points over the second-best runner is substantial, and Poetry Mann is the right horse to anchor win wagers on the final race of the night.

place9Secret PursuitML 4/1

Secret Pursuit (9) rates second in the field at 79.44 and is posted at a very playable 4/1 on the morning line — a price that reflects honest respect without becoming a short-priced liability. Trainer Kash Reed puts Juan Pulido aboard, and Pulido's card-long experience at the 300-yard trip gives this horse a tactical edge at the break. For exacta players, the 1-9 combination offers fair value at prices that could return a meaningful payout.

show10Wrs Cyber SamML 8/1

Wrs Cyber Sam (10) rates third in this maiden field at 62.92 — a significant drop from the top two but still comfortably ahead of the remaining seven horses — and is an intriguing 8/1 on the morning line. Trainer Samuel Gaytan, Jr. calls on Roman Cruz, who has been one of the most active and effective riders throughout today's card. At 8/1 in the show slot, Wrs Cyber Sam is an excellent trifecta anchor underneath the top two rated runners.

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It's a crisp, clean Sunday at Will Rogers and the conditions couldn't be more cooperative. Manhattan At Sunset in Race 1, Jm Painted Sky in Race 2, and O Donovan Rossa in Race 3 are your free best bets to build around. For the full 10-race breakdown — including longshot angles, pace projections, and exotic ticket construction — it's all waiting for subscribers at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck out there, and let's cash some tickets.

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