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Will Rogers Picks & Predictions — September 28, 2026

September 28, 202610 racesAll Will Rogers picks

It's a big Monday at Will Rogers Downs — partly cloudy skies, a comfortable 77°F, and a 10-race all-dirt card that has something for every kind of player. From short-and-sharp maiden claimers at 250 yards to a full-distance Derby at 400 yards, the variety today is real and the opportunities are there if you know where to look.

The marquee draw is Race 7, a 400-yard Derby with Notoryous sitting at 8/5 on the morning line and carrying our highest TrackWiz rating on the card. But don't sleep on the undercard — the maiden openers are loaded with first-time starters and tricky angles, and Races 6 and 9 bring genuine stakes-level talent to the surface.

With 77-degree temps and partly cloudy conditions overhead, expect a fast, consistent dirt surface all afternoon. Quarter horse sprints live and die by clean breaks and early positioning — track conditions like today's tend to favor speed that can get out clean.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:00 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

A six-horse maiden claimer sprinting 300 yards, and the TrackWiz ratings reveal a clear top choice — but three horses are bunched enough to make the exotics interesting.

win2Cuz Sooner MagicML 8/5

Cuz Sooner Magic (No. 2) stands out immediately with a TrackWiz rating of 89.12 — that's a massive edge over the next-best horse in this field. Roman Cruz gets the call in the irons, and this is a horse priced at 8/5 on the morning line for good reason. In a short-burst quarter-horse sprint, that kind of rating separation rarely gets erased by post position or pace scenario — this should be the one to beat.

place4Bernal Little GirlML 3/1

Bernal Little Girl (No. 4) checks in with a rating of 69.32, second-best in the race and well clear of the rest of the pack below her. Erik N. Esqueda has been active on this card and knows how to get horses out of the gate cleanly — crucial over 300 yards where there's no margin for a bad start. At 3/1 on the morning line, she offers legitimate place value if Cuz Sooner Magic runs her down.

show3Bright Tothe LimitML 2/1

Bright Tothe Limit (No. 3) sits at 58.33 on our ratings — third in the field and within range of Bernal Little Girl, which makes her a reasonable exotic anchor. Trainer Mario J. Loza has a runner here with Gilberto Linares up, and at 2/1 morning line she's clearly respected by the morning-line maker. If the top two beat each other out of the gate, Bright Tothe Limit could sneak into the photo.

Race 2

5:25 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

Ten maiden claimers over 250 yards — the shortest sprint on the card — and the favorite doesn't even rate the highest according to TrackWiz, setting up a potential upset scenario.

win1Mh Big EnsignML 3/1

Mh Big Ensign (No. 1) tops our ratings at 62.35 despite going off at 3/1 on the morning line, which is actually decent value for the top-rated horse in the field. Jimmy Dean Brooks gets the mount for trainer Eddie D. Willis, and gate one is a workable draw in a short sprint where clean air and a clean break matter more than anything else. The rating gap between Mh Big Ensign and the rest of this field is slim, so a sharp start could be the difference between a win photo and a near-miss.

place7Its the WhizkeyML 8/5

Its the Whizkey (No. 7) carries the 8/5 morning-line favoritism in this race but rates second on our sheet at 59.0 — barely behind the top pick. Juan Pulido has been a consistent presence at this meet, and trainer Jed H. Vane has runners throughout this card. The public is clearly sweet on this one, and if Mh Big Ensign stumbles out of the gate, Its the Whizkey should be right there to collect.

show10Bernal BreezeML 12/1

Bernal Breeze (No. 10) is an interesting show inclusion at a 12/1 morning line, rating 57.3 on our sheet — that's legitimately close to the top two in this field. Erik N. Esqueda gets the mount for trainer Jose Hernandez-Martinez, who also has Bernal Little Girl running earlier in the card. A show bet at double-digit odds on a horse rated this close to the top is the kind of overlay that makes trifecta tickets worth building.

Race 3

5:50 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 330 yd · Dirt

This 330-yard maiden claimer is hiding a gem — the morning-line book makes Beer Runn the second choice, but the TrackWiz number says this one is a standout, and a double-digit longshot lurks in the exotics.

win9Beer RunnML 2/1

Beer Runn (No. 9) posts an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the field by a wide margin and one of the top numbers on the entire card today. Bryan Candanosa gets the mount for trainer Samuel E. Valdivia, who also saddles Jrs Runaway Favorite in this same race, a good sign that the barn has confidence here with stable's top pilot. Priced at 2/1 on the morning line in a field where the next-best horse rates 17 points lower, this is the kind of spot where the favorite is actually a solid play, not a trap.

place7Jess Mr HocksML 10/1

Jess Mr Hocks (No. 7) is a fascinating place play at 10/1 morning line, packing a 71.04 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the race and a big jump above the third-rated horse. Roman Cruz, one of the busiest and sharpest riders on this card, gets the call for trainer Jesus Ruben Ruiz. That jockey-trainer pairing is one to note throughout the day, and at double-digit odds, Jess Mr Hocks represents genuine place overlay.

show5Hott DramaML 3/1

Hott Drama (No. 5) rates 56.67 — not flashy, but solidly third in this field — and carries 3/1 morning-line respect for trainer Jed H. Vane. Francisco Calderon gets the mount, and in a maiden field this spread out in terms of ability, the third-best horse is often the safest show bet on the board. Throw Hott Drama in your trifecta underneath and let the top two sort out the order.

Three races are fully unlocked for every TrackWiz reader today — Races 1, 2, and 3 — and they give us a nice early-card rhythm to work with. Cuz Sooner Magic opens the day in Race 1 with an 89.12 TrackWiz rating, our strongest number among the free picks, and draws 8/5 morning-line favoritism that looks well-deserved. Over in Race 3, Beer Runn posts a nearly identical 88.54 rating in a 330-yard maiden claimer — that's a lot of firepower in a field that's never won. The connecting thread across all three free races: we're looking at first-level maiden claimers where raw ability tends to dominate, and today's firm, consistent surface puts a premium on natural speed. Trust the numbers early.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

First open company race of the card, a 300-yard claiming sprint featuring horses with actual career records — and one morning-line longshot is posting a career win percentage that demands a second look.

win5The Big DaddyML 2/1

The Big Daddy (No. 5) leads our TrackWiz ratings at 77.41 and gets the 2/1 morning-line tab, the public agreeing with our assessment. Edwin G. Escobedo takes the mount for trainer Tyler Cole Crawford, who also has Sheza Easy Cash Girl in this same race. A 5% career win rate looks modest at first glance, but in a field this competitive at the claiming level, the rating edge matters more — The Big Daddy is the one we're building tickets around.

place4Windy SweetsML 10/1

Windy Sweets (No. 4) is the value play of this race at 10/1 morning line with a 76.88 TrackWiz rating — essentially a dead heat with the top pick on our sheet. Roman Cruz, who's been one of the sharpest jockeys on this card all afternoon, picks up the mount for trainer Jesus Ruben Ruiz. A horse rated this close to the favorite at five times the odds is exactly the kind of place play that builds exotic bankrolls over time.

show9Fabulous PhilomenaML 4/1

Fabulous Philomena (No. 9) rates 70.9 — third-best in the field — and is handled by Cody Rodger Smith for trainer Michelle Hurdle. The 4/1 morning line is fair, and in a claiming race where pace can be a wild card, having a third horse rated this well gives you a solid foundation for exacta and trifecta coverage. Philomena rounds out a top three that's clearly separated from the rest of this field.

Race 5

6:40 PM EDT

Allowance · 300 yd · Dirt

Step up in class to allowance company over 300 yards, and this is where career win percentages start telling a real story — a 47-percent winner is the public choice, but our top pick might be the most dangerous horse on the grounds today.

win7Ima Fancy Eye OpenerML 5/1

Ima Fancy Eye Opener (No. 7) tops our ratings at 84.17 with a 42% career win rate — exceptional numbers for any level of competition. Roman Cruz gets the mount for trainer Samuel E. Valdivia, a combination that's shown up at the top of multiple races today. At 5/1 on the morning line, this is a legitimate value play on a horse with elite career credentials — the kind of number that suggests the morning-line maker may be underestimating her.

place6Flying Nova 123ML 2/1

Flying Nova 123 (No. 6) is the 2/1 morning-line favorite and rates second on our sheet at 74.7, backed by a stunning 47% career win rate — the highest in the field. Rolando Raudales gets the mount for trainer Jesus Ruben Ruiz, and the public is clearly sweet on this one. The case for place rather than win is purely about the rating gap — Ima Fancy Eye Opener rates roughly 10 points higher, and that kind of spread in an allowance field usually plays out on the track.

show1TrademarqueML 4/1

Trademarque (No. 1) brings a 15% career win rate and a 64.86 TrackWiz rating to the table — third-best among a very competitive group. Mario Delgado gets the mount for trainer Hernesto Ramirez, and the 4/1 morning line reflects solid public support. In an allowance race this deep, having a show horse rated clearly above the middle of the field gives you reliable trifecta coverage.

Race 6

7:05 PM EDT

Stakes · 400 yd · Dirt

Stakes company at 400 yards — the longest race we've seen on the card so far — and one horse's 57% career win rate combined with the top TrackWiz rating makes this look like a potential singles race.

win4Alliekat DynastyML 2/1

Alliekat Dynasty (No. 4) is the standout of Race 6 and arguably one of the most impressive profiles on the entire card: an 88.54 TrackWiz rating paired with a jaw-dropping 57% career win rate. Rolando Raudales, who also pilots Flying Nova 123 in Race 5, gets the call for trainer Jesus Ruben Ruiz. At 2/1 morning line, the public has identified this horse correctly — in a stakes field at 400 yards, Alliekat Dynasty has both the raw ability numbers and the proven winning record to justify serious win-ticket investment.

place3Socially FunML 8/1

Socially Fun (No. 3) checks in at 79.79 on our ratings — a strong number for stakes company — while posting a 26% career win rate. Roman Cruz picks up the mount for trainer Samuel E. Valdivia, a barn that's running quality horses throughout this card. At 8/1 morning line, Socially Fun is an underlay candidate if Alliekat Dynasty draws most of the betting action, making the place payoff potentially very attractive.

show2Js FreightrainML 4/1

Js Freightrain (No. 2) rates 73.3 with a remarkable 47% career win rate — that winning consistency is hard to ignore even as the third pick in this race. Ruben Castro gets the mount for trainer Samuel Mendoza at 4/1 morning line, and at the longer 400-yard distance, a horse with this kind of winning pedigree should be live deep into the stretch. Round out your trifectas with Js Freightrain underneath the top two.

Race 7

7:30 PM EDT

Derby · 400 yd · Dirt

Derby conditions at 400 yards with a ten-horse field, and this one has a clear standout at the top — but the depth of the field from positions three through eight makes the exotics genuinely unpredictable.

win6NotoryousML 8/5

Notoryous (No. 6) leads all horses in Race 7 with an 89.12 TrackWiz rating and a 40% career win rate — elite credentials for a derby-conditions race. Juan Pulido gets the mount for trainer Samuel Mendoza, and at 8/5 morning line, the public has zeroed in on this one. The 400-yard distance suits horses with sustained speed, and a 40% win rate tells you Notoryous knows how to finish races — this is a confident top selection.

place8LiteninML 4/1

Litenin (No. 8) brings a 35% career win rate and a 60.51 TrackWiz rating to a spot where many horses in the field rate well below that mark. Ruben Delarosa, Jr. takes the mount for trainer Janessa Lee Muniz, who also has Atlas Rise in this race. The 4/1 morning line is fair value for a horse with a winning record at this level, and in a derby with Notoryous drawing heavy action, Litenin's place payoff could be generous.

show3Racket RidgeML 4/1

Racket Ridge (No. 3) rates 55.64 with a 21% career win rate — respectable numbers in a derby field — and gets Francisco Raul Ramirez, Jr. in the irons for trainer Jason L. Olmstead. The 4/1 morning line puts Racket Ridge in a tight cluster with Litenin in terms of public support, but the Olmstead barn is active at this meet with multiple runners and clearly believes in this one. Use Racket Ridge to complete your trifectas underneath the top two.

Race 8

7:55 PM EDT

Stakes · 350 yd · Dirt

Ten-horse stakes sprint at 350 yards, and our top pick is priced as the morning-line favorite while a longshot show play lurks with a compelling career winning percentage hidden in plain sight.

win2HardtohockML 2/1

Hardtohock (No. 2) is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and backs it up with an 82.45 TrackWiz rating — the highest in this stakes field. Juan Pulido, one of the more active and effective riders on this card, gets the mount for trainer Samuel Mendoza. With a 25% career win rate in stakes company and the top rating by more than 17 points over the next horse, Hardtohock is the kind of standout that makes win betting straightforward — this is a race to get on the right side of.

place4Biggie SmallML 3/1

Biggie Small (No. 4) rates 65.13 — clearly second on our sheet — with a 20% career win rate and Roman Cruz picking up the mount for trainer Jesus Ruben Ruiz. At 3/1 morning line, this is a logical place play for bettors who respect the favorite but want a cushion. Cruz and the Ruiz barn have been active and dangerous all day at Will Rogers, and Biggie Small at this distance fits their profile perfectly.

show1Diamond 123ML 20/1

Diamond 123 (No. 1) is a fascinating show inclusion at 20/1 morning line — a massive overlay if you believe the 62.29 TrackWiz rating. The 20% career win rate is legitimate stakes-level production, and trainer John A. Stinebaugh has Shes Qualified in the same race, suggesting the barn has a presence here worth watching. Gilberto Linares gets the mount, and at 20/1, the show payoff on Diamond 123 could be one of the better prices on the board all day.

Race 9

8:20 PM EDT

Futurity · 350 yd · Dirt

Futurity conditions at 350 yards with the most competitive top half of a field we've seen all card — three horses rate above 77 and the morning-line oddsmaker has spread them at 2/1, 3/1, and 5/1, setting up a legitimate three-way battle.

win2Miss AmericanML 3/1

Miss American (No. 2) tops our futurity ratings at 87.08, and Ramiro Haro Garcia gets the call for trainer Jason L. Olmstead, who has a massive presence on this card with four runners in this race alone. The 3/1 morning line may actually be mild value given the rating edge — Miss American rates more than a full point above the second-best horse, and in a 350-yard sprint, that kind of separation in raw ability tends to show up at the wire.

place4Whiskey DocML 2/1

Whiskey Doc (No. 4) is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and rates a very close second at 85.73 with an outstanding 42% career win rate — that winning percentage is the best among the top horses in this field. Cody Rodger Smith gets the mount for trainer Stacey L. Capps, who also has Sweet Lorali in this race. If there's a legitimate case for using Whiskey Doc on top of the exotics, it's that career win rate — horses that win 42% of their races are rarely far from the winner's circle.

show1Dressed N BlackkML 5/1

Dressed N Blackk (No. 1) rates 77.14 with a 33% career win rate, and Juan Pulido — one of the top pilots working this card — picks up the mount for trainer Jed H. Vane. The 5/1 morning line is fair, and in a futurity where the top three horses are all legitimately live, Dressed N Blackk gives you solid show coverage and a chance at a productive trifecta payoff. Don't sleep on this one in the exotics.

Race 10

8:45 PM EDT

Maiden · 250 yd · Dirt

The finale is a maiden sprint at 250 yards with a wide-open feel on paper, but TrackWiz ratings show a real standout — and a 10/1 shot rates nearly identical to the favorite, making the exacta a potential gold mine.

win2Jt Country BoyML 2/1

Jt Country Boy (No. 2) leads all horses in Race 10 with an 86.76 TrackWiz rating and draws the 2/1 morning-line tab — the public and our analysis are aligned here. Roman Cruz, who has been one of the most effective riders on the entire card today, gets the mount for trainer Jeffrey A. Tyer. In a 250-yard maiden sprint where the gate break is everything, having the top-rated horse with a proven jockey in an inside post is a strong combination — Jt Country Boy is the anchor of any ticket in the nightcap.

place6Cheap JammerML 10/1

Cheap Jammer (No. 6) is the value play of the card closer. A 76.88 TrackWiz rating — practically tied with Black Storm B for second in the race — yet Cheap Jammer goes off at 10/1 morning line while Black Storm B is 3/1. Erik N. Esqueda gets the mount for trainer Randy Chavez, and the rating-to-odds discrepancy here is hard to ignore. If the public is underestimating this horse, the place payoff at 10/1 odds could be one of the best tickets you cash all day.

show3Black Storm BML 3/1

Black Storm B (No. 3) rates 76.84 — essentially identical to Cheap Jammer — and carries 3/1 morning-line support for trainer Jose Hernandez-Martinez, who also has Bernal Breeze running in Race 2 today. Cristian R. Esqueda gets the call, and the Hernandez-Martinez barn has clearly had a productive afternoon at Will Rogers. As a show play, Black Storm B is the safe choice; in the trifecta, pairing both Black Storm B and Cheap Jammer underneath Jt Country Boy is a savvy way to attack a race where two horses rate almost identically.

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Today's card at Will Rogers is headlined by Notoryous in the Derby and bookended by a pair of high-rated maiden openers in Cuz Sooner Magic and Beer Runn. The free plays give you a strong start — but the real edge is in the full-card breakdown. Unlock all 10 races, pace projections, and exotic ticket strategies with a TrackWiz subscription at /pricing. Good luck out there today.

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