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Will Rogers Picks & Predictions — September 27, 2026

September 27, 202610 racesAll Will Rogers picks

Will Rogers Downs rolls out a full 10-race quarter horse card on Sunday, September 27th, and the conditions could not be more cooperative. It's 77°F and partly cloudy in Claremore — comfortable racing weather that should keep the Dirt track playing honest and fast all afternoon.

Speed is everything in quarter horse racing, and today's card is loaded with short-course sprints ranging from 250 yards all the way out to 400 yards. That variety means pace scenarios and gate speed will matter differently from race to race — and our analysis has dug into each distance separately.

Two horses are co-sharing the sharpest morning lines on the board — Parajax in Race 3 and Pevs Ace in the Hole in Race 6, both opening at 8/5. Meanwhile, Race 9 features a genuine longshot angle worth watching, with Mr. Miller Creek posted at 8/1 in an Allowance field. Plenty to dig into today.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:00 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

A Starter Optional Claiming sprint over 300 yards with a clear class edge at the top, but a live second choice and a sneaky longshot price make this more interesting than the morning line suggests.

win2Docs PandaML 2/1

Docs Panda is the standout on TrackWiz ratings with an 88.54 — a full eight points clear of the field — and backs it up with a 29% career win rate that ranks among the best in this spot. Trainer Jesus Ruben Ruiz saddles Docs Panda here and also fields Sheza a Hot Secret, meaning the barn has strong representation and likely knows which one they like best. At 2/1 on the morning line, the price isn't generous, but the class separation justifies making this your best bet in Race 1.

place7Over the ShockML 3/1

Over the Shock draws the 3/1 morning line for a reason — an 80 TrackWiz rating and a 28% career win percentage make this horse a legitimate threat to hit the board. Trainer Matt Whitekiller puts Cody Rodger Smith in the irons, a rider who shows up repeatedly on this card, suggesting confidence in the mount. If Docs Panda stumbles out of the gate or encounters trouble in this nine-horse field, Over the Shock has the raw numbers to capitalize.

show6Sheza a Hot SecretML 15/1

Sheza a Hot Secret is the value inclusion here at 15/1 on the morning line, carrying a 68.57 rating that honestly deserves a tighter price. Trainer Jesus Ruben Ruiz doubles up in this race, and having two runners means he gets a pace coverage angle — Sheza a Hot Secret could benefit if the barn's other entry controls tempo. At 15/1, even a show finish pays handsomely, making this the logical third leg of any exotic play.

Race 2

5:25 PM EDT

Allowance · 350 yd · Dirt

This 350-yard allowance looks like a three-horse race at the top, but there's a sneaky cluster of mid-tier runners in the 67-72 rating band that could scramble the exotics if any of the favorites underperform.

win7Bella BcML 5/1

Bella Bc sits at the top of our TrackWiz ratings with an 84.17 and posts a 25% career win percentage — solid numbers in an allowance field that has a few soft spots. Jockey Ruben Castro handles the mount for trainer Marco Adair Chavez-Gutierrez, and at 5/1 on the morning line, there's genuine overlay value here compared to the morning line favorite Bawitdaba. At 350 yards, a horse with Bella Bc's rating profile can afford to break a tick slow and still close the gap — this is our top play of the race.

place2BawitdabaML 2/1

Bawitdaba draws the 2/1 morning line and checks in at a 79.17 TrackWiz rating — strong numbers, though notably below Bella Bc's ceiling. Trainer Jesus Ruben Ruiz has multiple runners on the card today and clearly has a live stable, while Rolando Raudales is a familiar name in this jock colony. The place spot is where Bawitdaba makes the most sense — trustworthy enough to hit the board, but we're not sold on the short price to win.

show5Jh River RatML 10/1

Jh River Rat is the value bomb in the exotics at 10/1 on the morning line despite a 71.88 TrackWiz rating that is virtually identical to the 71.67 posted by Bricktown — a horse priced at 8/1. Trainer Stacy Charette-Hill sends out this runner with Cristian R. Esqueda up, and a 33% career win percentage is the best in the field. That win rate at double-digit odds is the kind of angle TrackWiz analysis loves to exploit in the show slot.

Race 3

5:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 400 yd · Dirt

Parajax is a heavy favorite in this 400-yard allowance, but Famous N Relentless brings a career win percentage that makes the 6/1 price look like a gift — the real question is whether the chalk can justify the short number.

win7ParajaxML 8/5

Parajax enters as the morning line favorite at 8/5 and earns it with the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 89.12 — a meaningful gap over the second-ranked horse. Cody Rodger Smith takes the mount for trainer Samuel E. Valdivia, and this combination appears multiple times on today's card, suggesting Valdivia is running a confident operation. At 400 yards — the longest sprint distance on the card today — Parajax's rating edge has plenty of ground to express itself, and we make this our Race 3 best bet.

place4Famous N RelentlessML 6/1

Famous N Relentless is the most intriguing price on the board in this race — a 43% career win percentage is elite by any measure, and trainer Jason L. Olmstead puts Ramiro Haro Garcia aboard a horse that clearly knows how to find the winner's circle. The 77.11 TrackWiz rating is second in the field and the gap to Parajax, while real, isn't insurmountable. At 6/1, this horse offers genuine win upside and is the cornerstone of any exacta play underneath the chalk.

show3Presido PeteML 3/1

Presido Pete checks in at a 51.61 TrackWiz rating and draws 3/1 on the morning line, which tells you the connections and the oddsmakers both respect this one. Trainer Haley N. Hobbs sends Fernando Fonseca-Soto to the gate, and a 27% career win percentage is respectable for a show play. Presido Pete projects as a horse that will be running on at the wire — slot him in your trifectas as the likely third money.

The first three races on the card are open to all TrackWiz readers, and they set the tone nicely for the day. Docs Panda (Race 1, 2/1) tops our ratings at 88.54 in the Starter Optional Claiming opener, looking like a well-priced favorite for a reason. In Race 2, Bella Bc is the most interesting of the free picks — posted at 5/1 morning line despite a solid 84.17 TrackWiz rating, which suggests there may be some real overlay value there depending on how the tote board opens up.

The standout of the free portion is Race 3's Parajax, our highest-rated horse among the free picks at 89.12. At 8/5 on the morning line, the favorite role is well-earned. On a track playing fair under mild skies, a horse at this rating level in a 400-yard Allowance should be hitting their best stride right at the wire. All three free races are on Dirt and all are short sprints — gate-to-wire scenarios where early jump and clean trips dominate.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:15 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 330 yd · Dirt

Maiden Claiming sprinters over 330 yards with all runners at zero career wins — the form is murky, but three horses rate clearly above the field and the TrackWiz ratings separate them cleanly from a soft bottom half.

win9Pevs Jess an EagleML 4/1

Pevs Jess an Eagle tops our TrackWiz model at 82.6 and draws the 4/1 morning line — a price that represents solid value given the rating advantage. Trainer Tyler Cole Crawford fields this horse with Jimmy Dean Brooks in the irons, a jockey who rides multiple live mounts on today's card. In a maiden field where everyone is looking for their first win, TrackWiz's rating edge is the clearest signal we have, and Pevs Jess an Eagle sits at the top of it.

place6No OffenceML 8/1

No Offence rates at 79.79 on the TrackWiz scale — just three points behind the top pick — and carries a morning line of 8/1, which looks like an overlay in a field this tight at the top. Trainer Stacy Capps keeps Cody Rodger Smith on a busy book today, and No Offence brings enough raw ability to be a serious place contender at a price that sweetens the exotic tickets. Don't let the double-digit morning line fool you here.

show4Magical MayzelML 6/1

Magical Mayzel rounds out our top three at a 78.17 TrackWiz rating and is priced at 6/1, making this a three-horse cluster within about four rating points of each other. Trainer Luz Chavira hands the mount to Cordarelton J. Benn, who has several calls on this card. In a maiden race where pedigree and training intent matter more than past performance lines, Magical Mayzel's strong rating in the 6/1 range is worth including in your trifecta box.

Race 5

6:40 PM EDT

Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

Three horses separate themselves from a sprawling ten-horse claiming field at 300 yards, with Pevs Rock Star holding the rating edge and Famous Kool Rocket offering a big win-rate angle at a fair price.

win4Pevs Rock StarML 4/1

Pevs Rock Star leads the TrackWiz ratings in this race at 85.62, and a 20% career win percentage is serviceable for the claiming ranks. Trainer Tyler Cole Crawford, whose barn is active throughout this card, puts Edwin G. Escobedo up in what looks like a confident spot. At 4/1 on the morning line, this is the kind of price we're happy to take on a horse who has a real rating edge over a ten-horse field — Pevs Rock Star is our Race 5 top selection.

place8Famous Kool RocketML 4/1

Famous Kool Rocket brings the standout career win percentage in this field at 33% — that's one in three starts finding the winner's circle, which is exceptional in the claiming ranks. Trainer Valerie Torres sends Jasten Pedraza to post, and the 80.35 TrackWiz rating places this horse firmly in the top tier. The 4/1 morning line matches the win pick, so if you're playing exactas, reversing the two is absolutely worth the investment.

show2The Light of GraceML 3/1

The Light of Grace rates at 64.21 — comfortably above the rest of the field outside the top two — and draws a 3/1 morning line that positions this as the race's short-priced board horse. Trainer Michelle Hurdle pairs with Javier Hernandez-Gallardo, a jockey with multiple mounts today. The rating gap between The Light of Grace and the horses rated below her is significant enough that a show finish feels very likely in a field with some soft spots at the bottom.

Race 6

7:05 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

A short 250-yard dash for maiden claimers, and one horse dominates the TrackWiz ratings so thoroughly that the real handicapping question is who fills the place and show spots behind the heavy chalk.

win3Pevs Ace in the HoleML 8/5

Pevs Ace in the Hole is the clear standout with a 89.12 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark on this entire day's card — and the 8/5 morning line reflects that dominance. Trainer Tyler Cole Crawford, who fields multiple live horses on this card, sends Jimmy Dean Brooks to the gate in a pairing that TrackWiz analysis has flagged repeatedly today. At 250 yards, there's almost no margin for error, but a horse this far ahead on ratings has the best chance of breaking clean and never seeing another rival.

place8Eyesa Fancy FlingML 8/1

Eyesa Fancy Fling checks in at 54.19 on the TrackWiz scale — the second-best rating in the field by a clear margin — and is priced at 8/1 on the morning line, which looks like a legitimate overlay for the place spot. Trainer Jesus Ruben Ruiz, who has been one of the barn leaders on this card, sends Gonzalo Gutierrez up on a maiden that may be further along than her odds suggest. If Pevs Ace in the Hole is the chalk you're fading, Eyesa Fancy Fling is the logical alternative; if you're backing the favorite, pair this one underneath.

show5Vallettas CharmML 3/1

Vallettas Charm rates at 49.07 and draws 3/1 on the morning line, which positions this horse as the most logical third choice in a race where the top of the field falls off sharply after the leader. Trainer Stacy Capps and jockey Cody Rodger Smith are a combination that shows up repeatedly today on strong-rated mounts, and this is no exception. In a 250-yard sprint where races are decided in the blink of an eye, having the third-best rating in the field gives Vallettas Charm a real shot at the show dough.

Race 7

7:30 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

A ten-horse maiden claiming sprint at 300 yards with a notable split — two horses rate clearly above the rest, while the bottom half of the field is clustered in the low-20s and could make this a chaotic gating scenario.

win1Pyc Prize LightsML 5/1

Pyc Prize Lights tops the TrackWiz ratings at 84.17 in this field and is the only horse in the race with a non-zero career win percentage — 12% — which matters in a maiden field where most runners are winless. Trainer Christopher Tovar saddles Cody Rodger Smith, who has been one of the busier riders on this card all night. Despite carrying the top number, Pyc Prize Lights is priced at 5/1 on the morning line, making this one of the better values among our top picks today.

place4Pyc DynastyML 2/1

Pyc Dynasty draws the 2/1 morning line and backs it up with a 73.88 TrackWiz rating — second in the field. Trainer Marco Adair Chavez-Gutierrez sends Ruben Castro to the gate, a jockey who has had solid work throughout this card. The gap between Pyc Dynasty and the third-rated horse (Ahnhell at 59.19) is significant, and this is a horse that should be in the mix at the wire even if it can't quite catch the top pick.

show7AhnhellML 3/1

Ahnhell rates at 59.19 — a meaningful step behind the top two but equally meaningful step ahead of the rest of the field — and draws 3/1 on the morning line. Trainer David E. Brown pairs with Gonzalo Gutierrez in a spot where simply running your race may be enough to collect show money. In a maiden race with this many horses in the low 20s rating-wise, a 59-rated runner has a genuine class edge on the bottom tier and should factor in trifecta sequences.

Race 8

7:55 PM EDT

Maiden · 350 yd · Dirt

This 350-yard maiden sprint features a competitive top four on TrackWiz ratings, with the morning line favorite and two overlooked horses all capable of hitting the board — the exotics could pay very well here.

win9Sensational SinnerML 2/1

Sensational Sinner draws the 2/1 morning line and earns it with an 82.18 TrackWiz rating, second-best in the field. Trainer Mario J. Loza sends Gilberto Linares to the gate, and in a maiden race at 350 yards, a horse who rates this high is a logical place to anchor your betting. The key question is whether Cercis, who rates just below at 79.79, can narrow the gap at the break — but Sensational Sinner's overall profile makes it the safest single in Race 8.

place5CercisML 8/1

Cercis is a genuinely interesting place play at 8/1 on the morning line despite carrying a 79.79 TrackWiz rating — better than Uncle Beast (77.44), who goes off at 4/1. Trainer Tyler Cole Crawford and jockey Jimmy Dean Brooks are one of the stronger trainer-rider combinations on this card, appearing together on multiple competitive mounts today. At 8/1, if Cercis can load and break cleanly, this is a horse with real win upside that is worth taking seriously beyond just the place slot.

show3Uncle BeastML 4/1

Uncle Beast rates at 77.44 and is priced at 4/1 for trainer Yareli Melendez and jockey Francisco Quintero in what looks like a competitive spot. The rating gap between Uncle Beast and the two horses above is modest — just five points separates the top three — meaning a slight pace collapse or a slow break from either could shuffle the finish order. Uncle Beast belongs in your trifecta sequences as a horse that can realistically run second or third in this evenly-matched top cluster.

Race 9

8:20 PM EDT

Allowance · 300 yd · Dirt

The nightcap allowance at 300 yards is a wide-open affair — the morning line favorite checks in at just 2/1, but the TrackWiz ratings don't match the chalk, opening the door for value plays throughout the field.

win10Mr Miller CreekML 8/1

Mr Miller Creek draws a 8/1 morning line but tops the TrackWiz ratings in this allowance at 79.79 — making this a certified overlay situation. Trainer Juan M. Villa sends Cordarelton J. Benn to the gate on a horse that our model identifies as the best in the field despite the public not recognizing it yet in the morning line. In allowance company where quality matters, the rating advantage here is real, and this is the kind of spot TrackWiz analysis was built to find.

place5Woke MobML 4/1

Woke Mob rates at 66.86 on the TrackWiz scale and draws a fair 4/1 morning line for trainer Tyler Cole Crawford and jockey Edwin G. Escobedo. Crawford's barn has been prominent throughout this card, and Woke Mob fits a profile of a horse that can sit close to whatever pace develops at 300 yards and be running on at the wire. The 9% career win percentage is modest, but at this distance, raw ability often matters more than historical record.

show7Southard LegendML 3/1

Southard Legend rates at 66.11 — just a hair behind Woke Mob — and is priced at 3/1 for trainer Jason L. Olmstead with Ramiro Haro Garcia up, a jockey who has had several live mounts throughout today's card. Olmstead's runners have been competitive in the allowance ranks, and Southard Legend's 7% career win percentage, while low, isn't unusual for a horse climbing the allowance ladder. The tight rating cluster between Woke Mob and Southard Legend makes both legitimate show plays, and including both in your trifectas is worth the extra ticket cost.

Race 10

8:45 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

A closing 250-yard maiden claiming dash where the morning line chalk (2/1) doesn't match the top of the TrackWiz ratings, setting up a genuine overlay in Krazy Kaitlyn 918 and an interesting vertical exotic structure.

win4Krazy Kaitlyn 918ML 6/1

Krazy Kaitlyn 918 leads the TrackWiz ratings at 82.71 despite being priced at only 6/1 on the morning line — that gap between the model and the odds is exactly the kind of spot TrackWiz analysis targets. Trainer Dee Keener puts Mario Delgado aboard in what projects as a strong two-horse matchup at the top with Mi Luci 123. At 250 yards, races are decided in fractions of a second, and having the highest rating in the field gives Krazy Kaitlyn 918 the best mathematical chance of being the one in front when it counts.

place10Mi Luci 123ML 4/1

Mi Luci 123 rates at 68.88 — second-best in the field — and draws a 4/1 morning line with Cody Rodger Smith up for trainer Samuel E. Valdivia. Valdivia's operation has had multiple live horses on this card tonight, and Mi Luci 123 fits the profile of a place-bet stalwart: strong enough to be competitive, priced well enough to add to exotic payoffs. If the top pick gets beat, this is likely the horse doing the beating.

show6Tres Me DownML 2/1

Tres Me Down is priced as the 2/1 morning line favorite, but the 58.33 TrackWiz rating — third in the field — suggests the public may be overrating this one. Trainer Jed H. Vane sends Oscar Villa to the gate in what looks like an honest effort. Even if the rating suggests Tres Me Down isn't the best horse, the strong betting support means this runner will likely be competitive at the wire, and the show slot is where the value lives given the price compression at the top.

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Bottom line for today at Will Rogers: Parajax is the marquee free play, Docs Panda is a comfortable short-priced single in the opener, and Bella Bc deserves a close look as a potential value play in Race 2. For the full card — including pace breakdowns, exotic strategies, and our longshot leans in Races 7 and 9 — the complete analysis is waiting for subscribers. Head to TrackWiz Premium and make every race count today.

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