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Will Rogers Picks & Predictions — September 22, 2026

September 22, 202610 racesAll Will Rogers picks

Will Rogers Downs is putting on a full 10-race show on Tuesday, September 22, and conditions couldn't be much more cooperative. Clear skies and a comfortable 79°F mean a fast, consistent surface — exactly the kind of day where speed figures hold up and pace projections are reliable. No weather excuses today.

The card is a quintessential quarter-horse menu: short, explosive sprints ranging from 250 yards all the way out to 440 yards, with a healthy mix of Maiden events, Claiming races, and a couple of Allowance spots that figure to draw the classiest horses on the grounds. Ten races, plenty of opportunity, and our TrackWiz models have been busy.

Three races are free to all readers — a solid starting point for casual players. The remaining seven are part of our premium breakdown, where the real edges live. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:00 PM EDT

Maiden · 300 yd · Dirt

A wide-open maiden sprint at 300 yards where TrackWiz ratings separate a clear top tier from the rest of the field — but maiden races over short dirt can always produce a surprise.

win9Smithworks SpecialML 2/1

Smithworks Special draws the morning-line favoritism at 2/1 for a reason — a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 is the highest in this field by a significant margin, and trainer Matt Whitekiller sends him out with jockey Cody Rodger Smith in what looks like a live combination. In short-format quarter horse racing, a dominant pre-race rating like this one often translates directly to the wire, especially in a maiden field with no proven speed figures to counter it. He's the horse to beat here, and the 2/1 morning line reflects that status fairly.

place2Ima TurnpikerML 6/1

Ima Turnpiker sits second in the TrackWiz ratings at 74.24 and comes in at 6/1 on the morning line — offering real value for exotics players. Trainer Randy Chavez puts Cristian R. Esqueda up, a solid pilot for a short sprint, and if Smithworks Special has any kind of stumble out of the gate, Ima Turnpiker has the rating profile to swoop in and grab the win outright.

show6Hold On TightML 3/1

Hold On Tight rates out at 70.14, third-best in the field, and the 3/1 morning line makes her a logical show play in a race where the top three are clearly bunched ahead of the rest. Trainer Dee Keener puts Mario Delgado on board — a jockey who shows up multiple times on this card, suggesting he's live all day at Will Rogers. She's a solid exotic include.

Race 2

5:25 PM EDT

Claiming · 350 yd · Dirt

A 350-yard claiming sprint with a clear class standout at the top but some sneaky depth underneath — the place and show slots could yield value with two double-digit morning liners showing decent ratings.

win9To the WireML 2/1

To the Wire hits this field with the highest TrackWiz rating on the card at 88.54 and the best career win percentage among the contenders at 14% — not elite, but respectable for a claimer. The Dee Keener/Mario Delgado combo is one to watch all afternoon, and at 2/1 the market agrees this is the one to beat. In a 350-yard dirt sprint, early gate speed is everything, and To the Wire's profile suggests he'll be there from the jump.

place7Turnpikers SilosML 4/1

Turnpikers Silos rates second in the field at 68.28 and comes in at 4/1, representing reasonable value relative to his rating. Trainer Pedro Martinez sends him out with Gonzalo Gutierrez, and a career win percentage of 7% isn't flashy but shows he's competed. If To the Wire hits any trouble at the break, Turnpikers Silos has the rating to capitalize and hit the board.

show3Hotwire SilosML 10/1

Hotwire Silos at 10/1 is the value play in the show spot — a TrackWiz rating of 59.53 puts her in the conversation despite a longer morning line. Trainer Valerie Torres and jockey Erik N. Esqueda are an active combo at this meet, and at double-digit odds, threading her into your exacta and trifecta coverage costs almost nothing while offering a meaningful payout pop.

Race 3

5:50 PM EDT

Maiden · 300 yd · Dirt

Another maiden dash at 300 yards, but this one features a genuine morning-line upset scenario — the public favorite Turbo Boost at 5/2 doesn't own the best TrackWiz rating, setting up a potential overlay situation.

win6El ChismosoML 4/1

El Chismoso owns the top TrackWiz rating in Race 3 at 75.35 and is listed at just 4/1 — value that's worth leaning into when the numbers support it. Trainer Randy Chavez pairs him with Erik N. Esqueda, and in a maiden sprint where past performance is limited, a rating advantage of this magnitude is meaningful signal. The crowd may be undervaluing him relative to the 5/2 morning-line favorite.

place2Jj PayasoML 12/1

Jj Payaso is the real value angle in this race — a TrackWiz rating of 73.96 (nearly identical to the win pick) comes with a generous 12/1 morning line that could make him a massive overlay on the board. Trainer Jesus Ruben Ruiz and jockey Gonzalo Gutierrez are an active combination at this meet, and if you're building a trifecta here, Jj Payaso is almost too cheap to leave out.

show8Turbo BoostML 5/2

Turbo Boost is the morning-line choice at 5/2 but sits third in TrackWiz ratings at 59.44 — suggesting the public may be a bit sweet on him. Still, Trainer Valerie Torres has multiple runners on this card and knows this surface, and a rating of 59.44 is plenty good enough to sneak into the money at 300 yards. He's a reasonable show anchor even if our ratings suggest better value elsewhere.

The opening trio of free races gives us a nice cross-section of the card. Race 1 is a 300-yard Maiden sprint where Smithworks Special (morning line 2/1, TrackWiz rating 88.54) jumps out as our top selection — a sharp figure for a first-level race. Race 2 shifts to Claiming company at 350 yards and To the Wire (also 2/1, 88.54) carries the same elite rating, suggesting a horse that may be a cut above this field. Then Race 3 brings us a more intriguing spot: El Chismoso opens at 4/1 in another 300-yard Maiden, and that morning line tells us the crowd isn't fully sold — but our model's 75.35 rating still makes him a live contender worth including on tickets.

On a fast, dry surface like today's, early speed is king in these short sprints. All three free-race picks project as horses who can get out of the gate clean and hold their ground to the wire. The value angle to watch: El Chismoso at 4/1 could be the kind of overlaid Maiden runner that pays nicely if the morning-line favorites hit any trouble in the gate.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:15 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 350 yd · Dirt

A starter allowance at 350 yards headlined by a 3/5 morning-line hammer — but our top-rated horse says the chalk might be vulnerable, making this race one of the more intriguing betting opportunities on the card.

win1Her Name in LightsML 4/1

Her Name in Lights carries the highest TrackWiz rating in this field at 85.62 and a career win percentage of 23% — the best strike rate in the field and a number that reflects genuine class. Trainer Samuel E. Valdivia puts Cody Rodger Smith up, and our analysis says she outrates the morning-line favorite Lightnin Strikes despite the public making Lightnin the 3/5 chalk. At 4/1, if you trust the ratings, Her Name in Lights is a strong value play to top the ticket.

place3Lightnin StrikesML 3/5

Lightnin Strikes is impossible to dismiss at a 46% career win rate — that's a genuinely elite number that suggests she's a consistent performer at this level. Trainer Dee Keener and Mario Delgado form a formidable combo, and even if our ratings slightly prefer Her Name in Lights, a horse who wins nearly half her races will find her way to the board far more often than not.

show8Dashing Doctor StoneML 6/1

Dashing Doctor Stone at 6/1 is the logical third wheel in this race with a TrackWiz rating of 52.73 and a 11% career win percentage that's workmanlike for a starter allowance spot. Trainer Luis Villafranco sends him with Randy Vega, and at 6/1 he offers solid exotic coverage for trifecta players who want a bit of value in the show slot behind two well-regarded top choices.

Race 5

6:40 PM EDT

Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

A 250-yard claiming sprint — the shortest race of the afternoon — where two high-rated horses sit just points apart at the top, setting up a head-to-head battle that could swing either way at the break.

win7Hes a Capo DashML 3/1

Hes a Capo Dash leads all comers with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 and comes in at 3/1, making him a solid value option at the top of our ticket. Trainer Gerardo Quinones-Sarmiento sends him with Gonzalo Gutierrez, who's been active all card long. A 16% career win rate isn't flashy, but at 250 yards the race is decided in a blink — and his rating edge suggests he has the early velocity to get there first.

place1Vf Wheely ColdML 2/1

Vf Wheely Cold at 2/1 is just a hair behind our win pick in the ratings at 85.15 — two horses separated by barely two points at the top of a sprint field is about as tight as it gets. Trainer Hernesto Ramirez puts Mario Delgado on board, a jockey who has been riding with purpose all day at Will Rogers. A 4% career win rate is notably low, but our pre-race ratings focus on more than win percentage, and Wheely Cold's profile says she belongs.

show5Rrelentless DollML 6/1

Rrelentless Doll at 6/1 brings the best career win percentage in this field at 33% — a number that demands attention in any field analysis. Trainer Joe M. Davis has two runners in this race and clearly believes in his stock today. At 6/1, if either of the top two stumbles out of the gate, Rrelentless Doll has the competitive record to swoop in and grab a piece.

Race 6

7:05 PM EDT

Maiden · 300 yd · Dirt

A 10-horse maiden sprint at 300 yards where three horses are bunched near the top of the TrackWiz ratings — but there's a clear tier break between the top three and the rest of the field.

win4Cyber StarML 2/1

Cyber Star owns the top TrackWiz rating in Race 6 at 88.54 — the maximum rating we see repeated among standouts across today's card — and comes in at 2/1, a morning line that's justified by the numbers. Trainer Dee Keener and Mario Delgado team up again, and this duo has proven active and capable all afternoon at Will Rogers. In a maiden sprint where the gate break is everything, a horse with this rating profile deserves to be on top of every ticket.

place1ArockML 3/1

Arock at 3/1 is the natural backup, rated 84.47 by TrackWiz — just a tick behind Cyber Star but well clear of the rest. Trainer Stacey L. Capps puts Cody Rodger Smith up, and Smith has been sharp at this meet. If Cyber Star has any gate issues, Arock has the rating and the odds to make you look smart on the exacta.

show8Tootoot the CartelML 6/1

Tootoot the Cartel at 6/1 is the hidden gem in the show slot with a TrackWiz rating of 73.12 — solidly third in this field and offering more than fair value at a double-digit odds profile versus her rating. Trainer Julio Rascon-Almanza sends Cristian R. Esqueda aboard, and with two horses ahead of her in the ratings, she's a logical trifecta piece at a price that should stick around through post time.

Race 7

7:30 PM EDT

Allowance · 440 yd · Dirt

The card's first allowance route at 440 yards features a clear top two in the TrackWiz ratings who are well ahead of a competitive but bunched mid-pack — this race could set up as a two-horse show.

win5TerrorizerML 2/1

Terrorizer is our top-rated horse in Race 7 at 88.54 and comes in as the 2/1 morning-line choice, a spot where the market and our analysis are fully aligned. Trainer Jason L. Olmstead sends out his own son, Ryder Olmstead, creating a family combination that you have to believe is motivated. A 10% career win rate in allowance company is solid, and the 440-yard distance gives speed horses enough room to stretch without losing their early advantage.

place4WhileubeengoneML 3/1

Whileubeengone rates out at 83.87 — second only to Terrorizer in this field — and at 3/1 represents real value as a place horse if you're building a multi-race ticket. Trainer Yareli Melendez sends Gonzalo Gutierrez aboard, and a 9% career win rate in allowance competition shows he's competitive at this level. The gap between Whileubeengone and the rest of the field below him suggests the top two are in a class of their own.

show9Hogs Big PlanML 8/1

Hogs Big Plan at 8/1 rates third in the field at 61.33 and carries a 9% career win percentage that's consistent with the allowance level. Trainer Samuel E. Valdivia and Cody Rodger Smith are a reliable combo, and at 8/1 there's genuine trifecta value here. If the race sets up with early heat between the top two, Hogs Big Plan could be the one to pick up the pieces in third.

Race 8

7:55 PM EDT

Maiden · 300 yd · Dirt

A packed 10-horse maiden sprint at 300 yards where the top two TrackWiz-rated horses carry significant rating gaps over the rest — this looks like a race between two horses with the third slot wide open.

win4Lorenzo GoldML 2/1

Lorenzo Gold at 2/1 leads all comers with a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 — the highest possible rating marker we've seen repeated throughout today's card on the standouts. Trainer Jesus Ruben Ruiz and Rolando Raudales combine here, and Ruiz has been a busy presence on this card throughout the afternoon, suggesting he's got his horses ready to run. In a maiden sprint, a dominant pre-race rating like this one is as close to a green light as you'll get.

place6Jess Sea Me DashML 5/1

Jess Sea Me Dash rates second in this field at 83.00 and comes in at 5/1 — a morning line that's quite generous relative to her rating proximity to the favorite. Trainer Kash Reed sends Cordarelton J. Benn, who's had a busy book of mounts today, and in a maiden race with limited past data to work from, a horse who rates this closely behind the chalk is a prime exacta play.

show2Lets Be ClearML 5/1

Lets Be Clear at 5/1 is the third selection in our show spot with a TrackWiz rating of 61.67 — a notable step below the top two, but still comfortably ahead of the remainder of this field. Trainer Dee Keener once again deploys Mario Delgado, a combination that has been competitive all card. At 5/1 for a show spot, Lets Be Clear offers solid trifecta value in a race where the bottom half of the field looks well behind the leaders.

Race 9

8:20 PM EDT

Allowance · 350 yd · Dirt

An allowance sprint at 350 yards with a fascinating ratings puzzle — the morning-line favorite doesn't lead in TrackWiz ratings, and there's a 100% career win horse lurking on the outside at a long price.

win9Gold Prize HoneyML 3/1

Gold Prize Honey tops the TrackWiz ratings in Race 9 at 87.08 and comes in at 3/1 with trainer Jesus Ruben Ruiz — who has been one of the busiest and most active barns all afternoon at Will Rogers. Jockey Gonzalo Gutierrez pairs up here, giving Ruiz the same reliable pilot he's used throughout the card. A 25% career win rate is genuinely strong for allowance competition, and our analysis says this is the most complete runner in the field.

place4Auntie DML 10/1

Auntie D at 10/1 is the genuine value play in this race — a TrackWiz rating of 76.88 ranks her second in the field, yet the morning line gives you double-digit odds on a horse our ratings say belongs near the top. Trainer Tyler Cole Crawford sends Edwin G. Escobedo, and a 16% career win rate in allowance competition is respectable. The combination of a strong rating and a generous price makes her an essential part of any exotic ticket here.

show6Echos of CowboyML 4/1

Echos of Cowboy at 4/1 brings a 20% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 56.48 — good enough to be on the board in a competitive field like this. Trainer Jesus Ruben Ruiz doubles back with Rolando Raudales in the show spot, giving this barn two strong chances in the same race. If Gold Prize Honey leads the way, don't be surprised to see Ruiz fill the trifecta himself.

Race 10

8:45 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 330 yd · Dirt

The closer at 330 yards is a maiden claiming event where the morning line and TrackWiz ratings tell different stories — our top-rated horse comes in at 5/1 rather than at the top of the board, creating a potential overlay to end the night.

win2Raton OviML 5/1

Raton Ovi leads all comers in Race 10 with a TrackWiz rating of 84.17 and comes in at 5/1 — a morning line that looks light relative to his rating edge over the rest of this field. Trainer Erik N. Rodriguez-Garcia puts Osvaldo Quinonez-Lopez up, and in a 10-horse maiden claimer at 330 yards, the horse with the biggest pre-race rating advantage often has enough early momentum to hold on through the wire. This is our best value play of the nightcap.

place6My Kind of FancyML 4/1

My Kind of Fancy at 4/1 rates second in this field at 71.06 — a solid number in a maiden claiming setting — and Trainer Luis Villafranco's decision to use Cordarelton J. Benn suggests confidence in a runner who could outrun her odds. She's a natural exacta partner with Raton Ovi given the rating gap between the top two and everyone below them.

show8Centaura 2ML 3/1

Centaura 2 at 3/1 rates third in the field at 59.50 and is the morning-line second choice despite our ratings preferring both Raton Ovi and My Kind of Fancy ahead of her. Trainer Jesus Ruben Ruiz — the busiest barn on today's card by appearances — sends Mario Delgado, who has been sharp all day. Even if she's slightly overbet relative to our ratings, she's a logical show anchor and trifecta piece to close out the evening.

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Bottom line: clear conditions and a fast Will Rogers surface make today a handicapper's best friend. Smithworks Special and To the Wire headline the free best bets with identical top-tier ratings, while El Chismoso offers a sprinkle of value at 4/1. The premium card brings Terrorizer as the day's marquee play and a juicy longshot angle in Race 10. Full breakdowns, pace projections, and exotic strategies are waiting for subscribers — see you in the winner's circle.

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