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Will Rogers Picks & Predictions — September 21, 2026

September 21, 202610 racesAll Will Rogers picks

It's a warm, partly cloudy Monday at Will Rogers Downs — 80°F and ideal conditions for the quarter horse sprinters who own this Oklahoma oval. With 10 races on the card and a fast, dry dirt surface expected all afternoon, this is the kind of day where speed rules and first-jump ability separates the winners from the also-rans.

The headline story today is the Futurity action running through Races 2–5. Between the trials and the final, we're getting a concentrated look at some of the best young quarter horse talent in the region — and our ratings have a clear edge or two to exploit. Pair that with a sharp Allowance double-header in Races 6 and 7, and there's plenty to work with across the full card.

Three races are open to all TrackWiz readers today. The remaining seven are available to subscribers — and trust us, the premium side of this card is where the real value is hiding.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:00 PM EDT

Maiden · 350 yd · Dirt

A wide-open maiden sprint at 350 yards where TrackWiz ratings separate two clear contenders from the rest of the field — but maiden races at this level are always unpredictable.

win2Hes a DaytripperML 2/1

Hes a Daytripper draws the morning-line favoritism at 2/1 and backs it up with the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 88.54 — a significant gap over the second-ranked horse. Trainer Stacey L. Capps puts Cody Rodger Smith in the irons, a reliable combination on the Oklahoma quarter-horse circuit. In a maiden field where past performance data is thin, that rating edge is the clearest signal we have, and it's hard to ignore.

place5They Call Me LarryML 3/1

They Call Me Larry comes in with the second-best TrackWiz rating at 81.11 and is postable at 3/1 morning line under jockey Oscar Jaquez for trainer Jorge L. Gonzalez. That 7-point gap behind the top pick suggests he's a legitimate contender for the runner-up spot even if he can't quite get to the winner's circle in his debut.

show7Easy MoneeML 5/1

Easy Monee carries a 54.99 rating and a 5/1 morning line, which makes him an interesting exotic inclusion in this short-field maiden event. Trainer Luz Chavira sends Cordarelton J. Benn to the gate, and at 350 yards, any horse with a mid-50s rating can get into the picture if the top two stumble out of the gate.

Race 2

5:25 PM EDT

Futurity Trial · 350 yd · Dirt

The first Futurity Trial of the day features a fascinating mix of experience and raw talent, with Dulce Dinero's top rating butting up against Bf Valentino's perfect career record and Zazas Coconut Cartel's solid credentials.

win7Dulce DineroML 2/1

Dulce Dinero is the class of this field on TrackWiz ratings at 88.54, and crucially, she backs that up with a 28% career win rate — that's real-world results, not just numbers on a screen. Trainer Jesus Ruben Ruiz puts Mario Delgado aboard, and Delgado is one of the busier and more effective pilots on this circuit. At 2/1, the morning line is fair for a horse that leads the field on both raw ratings and proven winning ability.

place5Zazas Coconut CartelML 4/1

Zazas Coconut Cartel holds the second-best TrackWiz rating at 82.38 and has won 20% of her career starts, giving trainer Kasey Willis a legitimate contender at 4/1. Jockey Gonzalo Gutierrez is a familiar name in these Futurity Trials and brings useful experience at this distance and surface.

show2Paddy PowersML 3/1

Paddy Powers slots in as our show selection with an 80.6 rating and a 14% career win mark, holding his own in a competitive trial. Trainer Dee Keener runs multiple horses in this race, which speaks to the barn's confidence at this level, and Ramiro Haro Garcia takes the mount for what could be an intriguing exacta or trifecta component at 3/1.

Race 3

5:50 PM EDT

Futurity Trial · 350 yd · Dirt

Race 3 shapes up as a two-horse battle at the top, with Wf Manfredi holding a clear ratings advantage, but Dallas North Tollway lurking at a price worth noting in your exotics.

win2Wf ManfrediML 2/1

Wf Manfredi posts the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 88.54 and brings a 25% career win percentage to the gate — horses who win one in four starts over their career tend to show up when it matters. Trainer Dee Keener is having a strong presence across today's card, and pairing this horse with Mario Delgado — one of the meet's more active jockeys — is a strong combination in a Futurity Trial at 350 yards.

place4Dallas North TollwayML 6/1

Dallas North Tollway is our value play in the place spot at 6/1 morning line, with a 16% career win rate and a solid 69.85 TrackWiz rating for trainer Matt Whitekiller. This is Whitekiller's barn's strongest-rated runner in this particular trial, and Francisco Calderon gets the call — that 6/1 price looks generous for a horse with a legitimate shot at finishing second.

show1Js Paint Me FanciML 3/1

Js Paint Me Fanci opens at 3/1 and carries a 68.51 rating, sitting just a tick behind Dallas North Tollway in the TrackWiz model. Trainer Jesus Ruben Ruiz fields runners throughout the card today, and Ruben Castro in the saddle gives this one every chance to sneak into the trifecta — particularly appealing in a race where the top pick's margin isn't overwhelming.

Our three free races — the opening Maiden (Race 1), plus the first two Futurity Trials (Races 2 and 3) — set the table nicely for the day. Hes a Daytripper opens the card as our top-rated play at 2/1 on the morning line, and first-out maiden sprints at 350 yards tend to reward horses with strong gate numbers above all else. In the trials, Dulce Dinero and Wf Manfredi both carry identical TrackWiz ratings of 88.54 — a signal that these heats are evenly matched on paper, which means trip luck and gate position become critical tiebreakers.

The common thread across all three free races: with a dry, fast surface and temperatures in the comfortable range, expect horses with early speed to get first run and not give it back. At 350 yards, there's simply no time to make up ground if you're caught flat-footed out of the gate.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:15 PM EDT

Futurity Trial · 350 yd · Dirt

Collective Power enters this Futurity Trial with both the top rating and an eye-popping career record, making this one of the strongest top-pick cases on the entire card today.

win8Collective PowerML 2/1

Collective Power is hard to beat here — an 88.54 TrackWiz rating combined with a 60% career win rate is simply elite for this level. Trainer Dee Keener's barn continues its strong showing today, and Roman Cruz gets the mount, a pairing that looks sharp on paper. At 2/1, the morning line actually feels fair given the statistical profile — this is one of our most confident plays of the afternoon.

place2ChilinatorML 3/1

Chilinator is the logical bridesmaid at 3/1 with an 80.16 rating and a 16% career win percentage. Trainer Matt Whitekiller sends Cody Rodger Smith in, and Smith has been active throughout today's card. The gap between Chilinator and the top pick is notable, but he's clearly superior to the rest of the field and has the profile to fill the place slot.

show3El TacoML 4/1

El Taco rounds out our selections at 4/1, holding a 67.37 rating for the Dee Keener barn with Mario Delgado up. It's worth noting that Keener saddles three horses in this race — Collective Power, El Taco, and Dw Showin Sin Off — which can sometimes signal trainer confidence across multiple horses. El Taco's rating puts him third in this field, making him a reasonable exotic play.

Race 5

6:40 PM EDT

Futurity · 350 yd · Dirt

The Futurity proper delivers an intriguing top-two that are separated by less than a point in TrackWiz ratings, setting up a tight battle between First Speeding Bullet and Knockouts Eyes at the head of the stretch.

win1First Speeding BulletML 4/1

First Speeding Bullet edges into the top spot with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating and draws the 4/1 morning line — offering better value than the 2/1 chalk despite a higher rating. Roman Cruz takes the mount for trainer Jesus Ruben Ruiz, who is fielding multiple runners in today's Futurity. In a race this tight at the top, getting the edge in rating AND getting paid more for it is exactly the kind of angle TrackWiz analysis prioritizes.

place6Knockouts EyesML 2/1

Knockouts Eyes is right there at 84.76 — barely a point behind the top pick — and brings real-world muscle with a 40% career win rate. Trainer Dee Keener puts Mario Delgado in the irons, a barn-jockey combo that has been active and effective all day. The 2/1 morning line makes her the crowd's choice, and with that win percentage, it's easy to see why.

show7Hearts of JettasticML 6/1

Hearts of Jettastic is our show pick at 6/1 with a 62.78 rating — a clear step below the top two but well ahead of the rest. Trainer Gary K. Walker gives Jimmy Dean Brooks the call, and in a Futurity where the top pair could drag each other into a tight finish, Hearts of Jettastic has the profile to slip into third in the trifecta at a workable price.

Race 6

7:05 PM EDT

Allowance · 350 yd · Dirt

The first Allowance race of the night features a field with legitimate experience levels, and Tempting Seis stands apart on ratings while Heza Pete pushes back with a strong number of his own.

win6Tempting SeisML 2/1

Tempting Seis tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.54 with an 18% career win rate in allowance company — he's not a maiden, he's been here before. Trainer Stacey L. Capps hands the reins to Cody Rodger Smith, and Capps has been one of the sharper trainers at this meet. The 2/1 morning line is right where you'd expect given the rating edge, and in a race where several horses carry spotty records, consistency matters.

place1Heza PeteML 3/1

Heza Pete posts a 85.7 rating — the second-best in the field — and a 10% career win rate that understates what looks like a solid form profile. Trainer Stacey L. Capps runs this horse alongside Tempting Seis, which means the barn has two bullets in this race. Eugenio Alberto Navarrete Jr. gets the call, and at 3/1, Heza Pete is a legitimate threat to hit the board.

show5Ag Cyber KingML 5/1

Ag Cyber King sits at 72.4 on the TrackWiz scale with a 25% career win rate — that's a solid strike rate at allowance level. Roman Cruz rides for trainer Jose Angel Burciaga, and the 5/1 morning line makes this one a worthwhile addition to your trifecta tickets. The jump from the top two in ratings is real, but Ag Cyber King's win percentage is the highest among the remaining contenders.

Race 7

7:30 PM EDT

Allowance · 350 yd · Dirt

A nine-horse Allowance with a clear TrackWiz top pick, but the morning line hides what could be legitimate value in the place and show spots — especially that show pick sitting at a generous 15/1.

win8ElectrifyingML 2/1

Electrifying leads the field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and a 12% career win rate in allowance competition. Mario Delgado takes the mount for trainer Justin W. Joiner, and Delgado has been one of the go-to riders throughout today's card at Will Rogers. At 2/1, Electrifying is the deserving chalk — the rating separation from the rest of the field is real.

place9Fast Prize MansonML 4/1

Fast Prize Manson sits second in the ratings at 80.01 with a matching 12% career win rate — similar resume to the top pick but slightly less upside. Trainer Kaylee Escobedo sends Edwin G. Escobedo to the gate, keeping things in the family. At 4/1, Fast Prize Manson looks like solid place value in a race where the top two are in a different tier from the rest.

show5Jess RowdyML 15/1

Jess Rowdy is our show play here at 15/1 morning line with a 57.31 TrackWiz rating and a 14% career win percentage. That morning line feels too long for a horse who rates third or fourth in this field on the TrackWiz model — trainer Jose E. Gamez sends Ramiro Haro Garcia out, and if the top two have any issues in this sprint, Jess Rowdy is right there to grab a piece.

Race 8

7:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

The 300-yard Claiming race is the shortest distance on today's card and throws up a genuine value scenario — our top pick Fancy Workin Girl is priced at 10/1 despite carrying the best TrackWiz rating in the field.

win7Fancy Workin GirlML 10/1

Fancy Workin Girl leads this ten-horse field with a 76.88 TrackWiz rating at a generous 10/1 morning line — that's a pricing disconnect worth noting. Trainer Samuel E. Valdivia saddles Roman Cruz, and Cruz has been one of the most active and effective jockeys at Will Rogers today. In a claiming sprint at 300 yards, early foot is everything, and the model suggests Fancy Workin Girl has the edge to deliver it.

place3G ViperML 4/1

G Viper slots in at 4/1 with a 67.68 rating and a 25% career win rate — that's a legitimate strike rate in claiming company. Trainer Kasey Willis runs Gonzalo Gutierrez, and the 25% win mark suggests G Viper isn't just filling out a field. He's shorter in the morning line than our top pick but rated just below her, making him a logical exacta partner.

show1Hott PartnerML 3/1

Hott Partner opens at 3/1 and carries a 65.88 rating with a 16% career win rate for trainer Haley N. Hobbs. Fernando Fonseca-Soto gets the mount, and while Hott Partner is the morning-line second choice, the TrackWiz numbers put him third — which makes him more of a show play than a win bet. At 3/1, he's still worth using underneath in the trifecta.

Race 9

8:20 PM EDT

Optional Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

The Optional Claiming at 300 yards features Emerald Bay as a clear standout, but Innocent Down Perry offers real value in the place spot at a fair price in what is otherwise a wide-open supporting cast.

win6Emerald BayML 2/1

Emerald Bay leads this ten-horse field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the top mark possible in our model — paired with a 28% career win rate in optional claiming company. Trainer Dee Keener has been one of the sharpest barns on today's card, and Roman Cruz continues his busy day in the saddle. At 2/1, Emerald Bay is the most straightforward top pick of the evening races.

place3Innocent Down PerryML 3/1

Innocent Down Perry comes in at 3/1 with a 79.79 TrackWiz rating — second-best in this field by a comfortable margin. Trainer Joe M. Davis puts Cody Rodger Smith aboard, and while the 6% career win rate looks modest, that figure can be influenced by career volume and company level. The raw rating says this horse belongs near the top of the finishing order.

show8L GallitoML 4/1

L Gallito opens at 4/1 with a 57.04 rating and a 9% career win rate for trainer Haley N. Hobbs. Fernando Fonseca-Soto takes the mount, and at 300 yards — the sprint of sprints — L Gallito's profile says he can sneak into third if things break right. Worth including in trifecta combinations as the third element behind the top two.

Race 10

8:45 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 330 yd · Dirt

The night caps with a Maiden Claiming sprint at 330 yards where Beer Runn owns a commanding ratings edge, but the place and show picks offer intriguing value angles in what is otherwise a deep maiden field.

win10Beer RunnML 2/1

Beer Runn draws program number 10 and carries the night's top TrackWiz rating at 88.54 — the field's clear standout despite the outside post. Roman Cruz rides for trainer Samuel E. Valdivia, a barn that has fielded competitive horses throughout the card today. In a maiden claiming race where separating horses is tough, that kind of rating dominance is the clearest edge available, and we're happy to take it at 2/1.

place8Summer ChanceML 10/1

Summer Chance is a sneaky interesting play at 10/1 morning line with a 58.24 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field but priced like an also-ran. Trainer Valerie Torres puts Mario Delgado in the irons, and Delgado has been excellent all day at Will Rogers. A horse rated third-best in the field going off at 10/1 in a maiden event is exactly the kind of overlay that makes exotic wagering worthwhile — Summer Chance belongs in your exactas.

show5Sixth SensationML 3/1

Sixth Sensation holds a 56.67 rating at 3/1 morning line, making her one of the shorter-priced horses who can justify the ticket cost in trifecta combinations. Trainer Jed H. Vane sends Juan Pulido out, and in a wide-open 330-yard maiden dash, the middle of the pack on ratings can absolutely find the show slot. If Beer Runn and Summer Chance fill the top two, Sixth Sensation is our trifecta anchor.

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Will Rogers is dealing a fast, compact quarter horse card today with Futurity prestige, sharp Allowance match-ups, and at least one longshot angle worth your attention. Start with Hes a Daytripper, Dulce Dinero, and Wf Manfredi on the free side, then let our premium analysis guide you through the rest. Good luck out there — and keep it smart.

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