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Thistledown Picks & Predictions — September 30, 2026
Thistledown kicks off its Wednesday, September 30 card with eight races under a cloudy sky and a comfortable 71°F — the kind of mild autumn afternoon that tends to produce honest, even fractions on a fast dirt surface. No rain in the picture means the track should be consistent throughout the day, which is good news if you like to build on early reads from the first few races.
The card leans heavily on six-furlong claiming sprints — six of the eight races go that distance — so pace scenario and early speed are going to be central themes all afternoon. The lone standout in terms of class is Race 5, an allowance mile that brings a step up in competition and gives the card its marquee moment. If you're building multi-race tickets, that race is the pivot point.
Three races are available free today, giving every reader a real look at our top analysis before a single dollar hits the window. The remaining five are unlocked for TrackWiz subscribers, where the real depth lives.
Best Bets
Race 1
Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
Two horses stand well above the field on TrackWiz ratings at this Thistledown opener, but a pace scenario with multiple speed types could set up a closer — and the 5/2 morning line favorite looks like the real deal.
Lordbetwentothorns (No. 9) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 — the highest mark in this field — and posts the best average speed figure in the race at 54. Going off at 5/2 on the morning line, trainer Justin Radosevich sends him out with Jose A. Bracho, a capable partnership in this claiming sprint. The edge in raw speed figures over a crowded field of similarly clocked rivals is exactly the kind of separation that wins races at this level.
Mo Mo Lightning (No. 3) carries a 87.08 TrackWiz rating — nearly identical to the top pick — and trainer Richard Zielinski has this one ready to fire at 3/1 on the morning line. Jockey Chelsey Keiser takes the call, and with that rating in a field where most runners are bunched in the 40s and 50s, Mo Mo Lightning looks like a near-lock for the exacta at a fair price.
Beat the Buzzer (No. 5) sits third in the TrackWiz rankings at 69.47 with trainer Robert M. Gorham pointing him at this 6-furlong claiming sprint. Erik Barbaran gets the mount, and at 4/1 on the morning line, Beat the Buzzer is a solid show anchor for trifecta players who want coverage behind the two top-rated horses.
Race 2
Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
A tight, high-quality matchup at the top as Eagle Nest and That's the Way both crack 88 on the TrackWiz scale — the rest of this 6-furlong claiming field is playing for third.
Eagle Nest (No. 2) leads all comers with an 88.75 TrackWiz rating and a jaw-dropping 31% career win rate — nearly one in three starts results in a win, which is elite at any level. Erik Barbaran rides for trainer Marco Ibarra, and the 7/5 morning line reflects legitimate chalk confidence. Matching the field's best average speed figure at 54, Eagle Nest checks every box TrackWiz looks for in a dirt sprint win pick.
That's the Way (No. 7) is no pushover at 88.54 on the TrackWiz scale with a 22% career win rate — this one could easily flip the pick order if Eagle Nest has any trouble. Luis Raul Rivera takes the mount for trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich, and at 2/1 on the morning line, That's the Way is a genuine win threat that comfortably fills the place slot for exacta construction.
Run Red Run (No. 3) rates at 73.48 — a healthy gap below the top two but well clear of the rest of the field — with Fernando Salazar Becerra up for trainer Robert C. Cline. A 16% career win rate and a 54 average speed figure give Run Red Run a legitimate class edge over the back half of this field, making the 9/2 morning line a reasonable show price for trifecta players.
Race 3
Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
Calling Tillie enters as the TrackWiz top-rated horse and the morning line favorite, but Trustthefact and Tier Ones Legacy are close enough to make this a genuine three-horse race in a tricky claiming sprint.
Calling Tillie (No. 4) tops this field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and goes postward as the 2/1 morning line choice under trainer-jockey combination Kirsten Swan — yes, she trains and rides her own horse, which speaks to real confidence in this spot. Her 12% career win rate is modest, but the rating separation from mid-field rivals is substantial. In a field where the top three are tightly grouped and the rest fall off sharply, Calling Tillie's class edge is real.
Trustthefact (No. 5) carries an 82.38 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field — with Victor R. Fernandez in the irons for trainer Susan D. Yoder at 7/2 on the morning line. The 14% career win rate is consistent with a horse that hits the board regularly, and the combination of strong figures and fair odds makes Trustthefact a natural play underneath Calling Tillie.
Tier Ones Legacy (No. 1) checks in at 80.47 on the TrackWiz scale — third-best in this field — and Jefferson Skerrett rides for trainer Jeff Fletcher at 3/1 on the morning line. The 14% career win rate mirrors Trustthefact, and drawing the rail in a 6-furlong sprint on dirt could be an asset if the pace sets up favorably. A strong show candidate for trifecta plays.
Our three free races today — Races 1, 2, and 3 — give you a strong foundation to start the card. Lordbetwentothorns opens the day at 5/2 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 87.81, a solid number for a first-race claimer. Race 2 brings Eagle Nest in as a 7/5 morning-line favorite and our highest-rated free pick at 88.75 — that kind of market confidence backed by our own model is a combination worth respecting. Calling Tillie closes out the free slate at 2/1 in Race 3, rated 88.54, and fits a pace scenario where she could get an uncontested trip on the front end.
All three free picks are sprinting six furlongs on dirt, so watch the early pace in Race 1 — if speed is getting punished, consider adjusting how you attack Races 2 and 3. Track bias in the first race is your free tip of the day before you even open your wallet.
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Bottom line: Thistledown gives us a workmanlike Wednesday card with a clear headliner in Nava's Gold and a trio of free plays — Lordbetwentothorns, Eagle Nest, and Calling Tillie — to get you started. The track looks honest, the weather is cooperative, and the six-furlong bias angle from Race 1 could pay dividends all afternoon. Want the full picture? Subscribers have access to every race, every angle, and every ticket recommendation. Check out TrackWiz Premium and make today count.