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Thistledown Picks & Predictions — September 29, 2026

September 29, 20268 racesAll Thistledown picks

It's a crisp, beautiful Tuesday at Thistledown — clear skies, 69 degrees, and a fast dirt track that should reward horses who want to run. Eight races are on the board, ranging from straight claiming routes to a legit allowance sprint, and TrackWiz analysis has been all over this card since the entries dropped.

The weather couldn't be more cooperative. With no rain in the picture and ideal fall conditions, pace scenarios should play out cleanly today — meaning front-runners will need to earn their leads and closers will get their shot if the early fractions get hot. That makes reading the pace flow critical, especially in the two one-mile routes on the card.

Three races are fully unlocked for every reader today, and our ratings are pointing to some sharp spots — including a couple of morning-line overlays we think the public will underestimate. Let's get into it.

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Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A clear top-rated standout faces a competitive mid-tier cluster in this one-mile dirt claimer — the favorite looks hard to beat, but the price horses behind him make for an intriguing exacta puzzle.

win4That's the WayML 8/5

That's the Way (4) carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 89.12 and draws the morning line favoritism at 8/5 for good reason. Trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich puts him in here with jockey Luis Raul Rivera, a solid combination for a route race. His 22% career win rate is right in the reliable range, and at a mile on dirt, there's no reason to think the distance is a problem. He's the class of this field and should be difficult to run down.

place6May MayhemML 5/1

May Mayhem (6) checks in with a 76.32 rating — second-best in the race — and matches the field's top average speed figure at 54. At 5/1 on the morning line, she represents genuine each-way value if the favorite hits any trouble in the stretch. Trainer Gary L. Johnson sends her out with Fernando Salazar Becerra in the irons, and her 18% career win rate on a surface she clearly knows keeps her firmly in the mix for the place spot.

show2Party PooperML 8/1

Party Pooper (2) sits third in the TrackWiz ratings at 73.51 and brings a career win percentage of 24% — actually the strongest winning rate among the top-rated horses in this race. Rocco Bowen picks up the mount for trainer Johanna Urieta, and at 8/1 on the morning line, he offers solid show insurance while also being a sneaky inclusion in trifecta tickets. His speed figure of 54 matches the best in the field, so raw ability isn't in question.

Race 2

5:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Tyson's Lil' Star looks like a cut above in this six-furlong dirt claimer, but a pair of mid-priced horses with legitimate credentials could make the exacta interesting if the favorite gets tested early.

win8Tyson's Lil' StarML 3/1

Tyson's Lil' Star (8) dominates this field on TrackWiz ratings with an 87.08 — a significant gap over the second-best at 61.03. Luis Antonio Gonzalez takes the mount for trainer Valerie K. Shanyfelt, and a 27% career win rate gives you confidence this horse knows how to seal the deal. Sitting at 3/1 on the morning line, he's not a throw-away price either, and his average speed figure of 54 ties with several rivals — but the overall rating edge here is substantial.

place3Jac's Doe MakerML 4/1

Jac's Doe Maker (3) brings something genuinely eye-catching to this race: a 50% career win rate, which is comfortably the highest in the field. Chelsey Keiser takes the mount for trainer Ivan Vazquez, and while the TrackWiz rating of 61.03 reflects some uncertainty in the ratings model, that win percentage suggests a horse that converts when pointed at the right spot. At 4/1, the place return could be quite rewarding if she fires.

show1Two Twenty TwoML 6/1

Two Twenty Two (1) sports a career win rate of 37% — second-best in the field — and a TrackWiz rating of 59.41 that keeps him in the conversation for the third spot. Julio Correa handles the mount for Robert C. Cline, and at 6/1 on the morning line, he's a nice inclusion on the bottom of trifecta tickets. His speed figure of 55 is actually the best in the field, which could matter in a sprint if the pace gets honest.

Race 3

5:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A chalk-busting opportunity here — the morning-line favorite is not the top-rated horse in the field, setting up a scenario where sharp players can get value by siding with the TrackWiz numbers over the crowd.

win2ThebeesenvymeML 7/2

Thebeesenvyme (2) owns an 86.35 TrackWiz rating — tops in this six-furlong dirt field — yet goes off at 7/2 on the morning line while the crowd leans toward the 6/5 morning-line favorite. That's a classic value disconnect worth exploiting. Victor R. Fernandez handles the mount for trainer Justin Radosevich, and a 25% career win rate at a competitive clip makes this horse a legitimate threat to go gate-to-wire or sit just off the pace and pounce. The numbers say he's the best horse here.

place3Seyval BlancML 5/2

Seyval Blanc (3) rates second in the field at 77.81 and carries a 22% career win rate with an average speed figure of 53 — useful numbers in a six-furlong sprint. Erik Barbaran gets the call for trainer Michael L. Rone, and at 5/2, there's actually a case that this is the public's main pick. Whether she wins or runs second, she's a safe place investment and a natural pairing with Thebeesenvyme in exacta combinations.

show5Victoria CommandML 6/5

Victoria Command (5) is the morning-line favorite at 6/5, which earns respect even if TrackWiz ratings rank her third in the field at 57.21. Trainer Rey Juarez-Mendoza and jockey Alejandro Gomez Jr. have a horse with an average speed figure of 53 that knows this surface and distance. If you're fading her to win, she still makes sense as a show hedge — the public money is there for a reason, and she's capable of hitting the board.

The first three races on the card are free for everyone, and they tell an interesting story. That's the Way opens the card in the mile claimer as our top-rated horse of the day at 89.12 — matching the highest mark we've issued to any horse on this card — and the 8/5 morning line suggests the oddsmakers agree. Route racing on a clear, fast dirt track suits horses who can settle early, and that's a profile worth backing. In Race 2, Tyson's Lil' Star draws our attention in the six-furlong sprint, while Race 3's Thebeesenvyme brings some value at 7/2 in what looks like a competitive but penetrable field.

One angle connecting all three free races: Thistledown's dirt has historically leaned toward horses with early tactical speed — not pure wire-to-wire speedballs, but horses that can press the pace comfortably and have enough left for the stretch. Keep that bias in mind as you handicap today's openers.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Two horses dominate the ratings in this 5½-furlong dirt claimer, with Spectacular d'Oro and Little Shance setting up what figures to be a two-horse show — though Balki Bartokomous lurks at a price that makes him worth a trifecta look.

win3Spectacular d'OroML 8/5

Spectacular d'Oro (3) is the class of this field with an 89.12 TrackWiz rating — highest on the card for this race — and draws the 8/5 morning-line chalk with Fernando Salazar Becerra in the irons for trainer David Wolochuk. His 18% career win rate is modest, but the quality of the rating suggests he's been competitive at a higher level. In a 5½-furlong dash, early speed and a high ceiling matter most, and this horse has the profile to clear the field.

place4Little ShanceML 9/5

Little Shance (4) checks in second on ratings at 76.64 and is right there in the betting at 9/5, making this a very short two-horse exacta if both fire. Ricardo Feliciano takes the mount for trainer Jevon D. Crumley, and a 16% career win rate on a competitive circuit gives you a horse that's accustomed to fighting for the top spots. In a sprint, she figures to press or stalk the favorite and has the fitness profile to hold for the place or even steal the win.

show1Balki BartokomousML 6/1

Balki Bartokomous (1) rates third in the field at 75.14 — extremely close to Little Shance — while going off at 6/1 on the morning line, making him the clear value play for the show spot. Erik Barbaran rides for trainer Rey Juarez-Mendoza, and a 9% career win rate doesn't jump off the page, but the TrackWiz rating suggests he's been running well enough to hit the board in this field. In a short field at 5½ furlongs, pace dynamics could set this up perfectly for a closer who can grab a piece.

Race 5

6:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

One of the tightest top-three bunches on today's card — three horses rated 81 or higher in a six-furlong claiming sprint sets the stage for a genuine battle in the lane, with Delightful Cat offering the best price of the trio.

win1Pretty PattyML 5/2

Pretty Patty (1) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 and combines that with the field's second-best career win rate at 32% — a potent combination that explains why she's the top pick despite going off at 5/2. Fernando Salazar Becerra takes the mount for trainer Saul M. Morales, a familiar barn at Thistledown. Her average speed figure of 53 is competitive, and that 32% win rate over a career tells you she doesn't just run well — she finishes.

place3NubladaML 2/1

Nublada (3) rates a whisker behind at 86.76 and actually owns the field's best career win percentage at 37%, which is remarkable in a six-horse open field. Mauro Cedillo rides for trainer Robert C. Cline, and her average speed figure of 54 — tops in the race — suggests she brings the most raw pace to the table. At 2/1 morning line, she's the short public choice, and the case is easy: if she doesn't win, she's almost certainly hitting the board.

show4Delightful CatML 6/1

Delightful Cat (4) is the value anchor of this trio, rating 81.37 while going off at a generous 6/1 on the morning line. Santiago Gonzalez handles the mount for trainer Kathy Jarvis, and a 23% career win rate with the field's best average speed figure at 55 is a compelling statistical combination. She sets up perfectly as a trifecta cornerstone — if the top two run each other into the ground, Delightful Cat has the foot to close into the frame.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The public is leaning on the morning-line chalk in this one-mile dirt claimer, but TrackWiz ratings tell a different story — Vladislav rates well above his price and Verbier shapes up as a live longshot case.

win6VladislavML 7/2

Vladislav (6) leads the field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating yet goes off at 7/2, meaning the crowd is underestimating him in favor of the 6/5 morning-line choice. Jefferson Skerrett picks up the mount for trainer Jeffrey Skerrett — a family barn that knows this horse well, which is always a positive indicator. A 10% career win rate looks pedestrian on the surface, but in a one-mile race where pace and stamina matter, the quality of his recent efforts matters more than the raw win count. His average speed figure of 52 is consistent with the competitive group here.

place4VerbierML 5/1

Verbier (4) rates second in the field at 81.13 and goes off at 5/1 on the morning line, offering excellent each-way value in what could be a pace-honest mile. Fernando Salazar Becerra — one of the more active riders on today's card — takes the mount for trainer Richard Zielinski. A 5% career win rate is a concern, but the TrackWiz model sees something in this horse's recent form that the raw numbers don't tell, and at 5/1, the place return makes him a smart pairing with Vladislav.

show2Concealed CarryML 6/5

Concealed Carry (2) is the morning-line favorite at 6/5 and rates third on TrackWiz at 76.56, which is a reasonable number for the public choice. Erik Barbaran rides for trainer Marco Ccamaque, and a 12% career win rate at a mile on dirt is fair context. Even if you're structuring your tickets around Vladislav winning, Concealed Carry's public support makes her a safe show hedge — she should be competitive throughout and capable of holding a spot in the money.

Race 7

7:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

An allowance field at six furlongs with a clear top-rated horse and a genuine pace scenario brewing — Ollie's Folly looks like the class of the group, but Corfu Fighting's eye-popping career win rate keeps this from being a rubber stamp.

win6Ollie's FollyML 2/1

Ollie's Folly (6) leads the TrackWiz ratings at 88.54, owns the field's best average speed figure at 55, and carries a 31% career win rate that confirms this is a horse who delivers when it counts. Deshawn L. Parker — who had a mount in Race 1 as well — picks up the call for trainer Johanna Urieta. At 2/1 on the morning line, the price isn't a steal, but in an allowance field where the rating gap is meaningful, you're paying for a legitimate standout. Back this horse with confidence.

place1Corfu FightingML 7/2

Corfu Fighting (1) brings an absolutely remarkable 57% career win rate to this race — by far the highest of any horse on today's card across all eight races. Chelsey Keiser rides for trainer Megan Fadlovich, and while the 75.64 TrackWiz rating puts her second here, that win rate screams that this horse has a history of showing up. In a six-furlong allowance, early speed from the rail is a legitimate weapon, and she may be on the engine from the break.

show5Heza PistolML 3/1

Heza Pistol (5) slots in third on ratings at 74.23 and pairs with a 26% career win rate — competitive figures for the show spot in an allowance sprint. Mauro Cedillo rides for trainer Robert C. Cline, who also saddles Nublada in Race 5, suggesting an active barn day. His average speed figure of 54 keeps him in step with the top two, and at 3/1, he's a natural inclusion on the bottom of trifecta tickets behind Ollie's Folly and Corfu Fighting.

Race 8

8:20 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Maiden claimers are always a puzzle — nobody in this field has won yet — but TrackWiz ratings separate two horses clearly from the pack, making the top of the ticket cleaner than the condition might suggest.

win6Mr. RiffleML 5/2

Mr. Riffle (6) tops this maiden claiming field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and draws the 5/2 morning line as a co-favorite alongside Rollin for Real's 2/1. Victor R. Fernandez gets the mount for trainer Robert C. Cline — notably the same barn sending out Quality Kiss in this very race, suggesting Cline has real confidence in Mr. Riffle as the barn's best shot. In maiden company where career win percentages are all zero, the ratings model leans heavily on speed and recent figures, and this horse's 52 average speed figure is consistent with the group while the overall rating says he's the most complete package.

place4Mister Bad ExampleML 5/1

Mister Bad Example (4) rates second at 82.92 with a morning line of 5/1, making him the clear value play in the win spot if the top choice disappoints and a natural place contender at a price. Erik Barbaran takes the mount for trainer Marco Ibarra, and an average speed figure of 52 keeps him right in step with the field. In a maiden race, a trainer who spots a horse correctly at the right price can make all the difference, and Ibarra puts this one in at an interesting number.

show3Rollin for RealML 2/1

Rollin for Real (3) is the morning-line co-favorite at 2/1 and rates third among the starters at 71.04, so the crowd clearly respects him even if TrackWiz sees a gap. Gerardo Corrales rides for trainer Justin Radosevich — the same conditioner who had Thebeesenvyme in Race 3 — and an average speed figure of 53 is the best among the three top-rated horses here. As a show selection, he's the public's safety net, and if the two higher-rated horses set a hot pace, Rollin for Real could be picking up the pieces in the final furlong.

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Bottom line: Thistledown is delivering a clean, playable card on a picture-perfect fall afternoon. That's the Way is our top free play to kick things off, and Ollie's Folly in the allowance is the name to watch on the back half. For the full race-by-race breakdown, pace projections, and exotic strategies across all 8 races, subscribers have everything they need. Head to /pricing to unlock the complete card — there's real money on the table today.

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