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Thistledown Picks & Predictions — September 28, 2026

September 28, 20268 racesAll Thistledown picks

It's a beautiful Monday afternoon at Thistledown — partly cloudy skies and a crisp 66°F make for ideal conditions on the dirt. Eight races are on tap, and the track should be playing fair with no weather concerns to factor in. That's good news for speed horses and closers alike.

The card mixes it up nicely: you've got maiden races, claiming sprints, and a pair of allowance miles at the top of the card that figure to draw some of the sharper horses on the grounds. TrackWiz analysis has strong opinions on several races today, including a couple of spots where the morning line looks beatable.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open 6-furlong claiming sprint where the morning line favorite doesn't hold the top TrackWiz rating — expect a contentious pace and a potential overlay at the top of the ticket.

win7Tizzy JojoML 8/1

Tizzy Jojo heads our analysis with the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 79.79, and at 8/1 on the morning line, this is the kind of overlay you circle. Trainer Gary L. Johnson sends out a horse who carries a 15% career win rate — respectable for this level — and jockey Fernando Salazar Becerra gets the call. The avg speed figure of 54 ties for the best in the field, and that combination of top rating plus price makes Tizzy Jojo our best bet in Race 1.

place2She's So SexyML 9/2

She's So Sexy (No. 2) posts the second-highest rating in the field at 78.09 behind our win pick, and Jose A. Bracho is a capable handler for a sprint like this. The 11% career win rate is modest, but in a field this competitive, hitting the board at 9/2 morning line odds is a realistic outcome and solid place value.

show1Tale of LemonbelleML 5/1

Tale of Lemonbelle rounds out the exotics ticket with a 76.84 TrackWiz rating and an 18% career win rate — the best win percentage in the entire field. Trainer Jeffrey Skerrett also doubles as the jockey connection here (Jefferson Skerrett up), which often signals a confident barn. At 5/1, she's a worthy show anchor in trifectas and exacta savers.

Race 2

5:20 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

A maiden special weight sprint over 5 furlongs where one horse's TrackWiz rating towers over the competition — but the morning line has her sitting near the chalk, making the ticket construction interesting.

win7OaklynML 5/2

Oaklyn (No. 7) is the standout in this maiden field by a wide margin, posting an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — nearly 29 points clear of the second-rated horse. Trainer David Wolochuk saddles Chelsey Keiser, and while all runners carry 0% career win rates in this maiden field, Oaklyn's profile projects the strongest. At 5/2 morning line, she's not a huge overlay, but the rating gap justifies making her the cornerstone of your exotics here.

place1My Pink EventML 8/5

My Pink Event (No. 1) is the morning line favorite at 8/5 with a 59.0 rating and an avg speed figure of 52 — giving her legitimate back class to hit the board even if she can't match Oaklyn's ceiling. Trainer Robert C. Cline sends her out with Victor R. Fernandez aboard, and her prior experience (evidenced by a recorded avg speed) gives her a conditioning edge over some first-timers in this spot.

show5The Way It IsML 9/2

The Way It Is (No. 5) rates third in this field at 54.17 and draws trainer Robert M. Gorham with Erik Barbaran in the irons at 9/2 on the morning line. No avg speed figure suggests a likely debut, but the rating holds up well against the rest of the field outside the top two. Use her underneath in trifectas as a bridge to deeper exotics.

Race 3

5:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile claiming route with a clear class standout at the top — the question is whether the morning line favorite at 2/1 can be beat, or if the top-rated closer makes this a formful outcome.

win1Guns and ShipsML 5/2

Guns and Ships (No. 1) is the most dominant horse on paper in this race, carrying an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and a 22% career win rate — best in the field by a significant margin. Trainer Valerie K. Shanyfelt sends him out with Luis Antonio Gonzalez, and the avg speed figure of 53 is in line with the field. The 5/2 morning line is fair value for a horse who grades this far ahead of his rivals.

place5Coasting ByML 3/1

Coasting By (No. 5) checks in with a 70.55 rating and draws Chelsey Keiser for trainer John Steve Cannon at 3/1 on the morning line. The 11% career win rate is modest, but Coasting By's rating puts her clearly third in the field behind only our top two selections, and in a route at a mile, a closer profile often finds the board even when she can't catch the top horse.

show3Aces MischiefML 4/1

Aces Mischief (No. 3) holds a 62.25 TrackWiz rating and a 14% career win rate with Gerardo Corrales up for trainer Nestor R. Rivera. The 4/1 morning line provides show value in trifectas, and at a mile where pace scenarios can scramble the order late, Aces Mischief's profile gives enough upside to anchor the third spot in your exotics.

Three races are unlocked for every reader today. We're kicking things off in Race 1 with Tizzy Jojo at a juicy 8/1 morning line — our model grades her at 79.79, and in a six-furlong claiming sprint on dirt, she's the kind of overlay that makes a single-race card worth watching on its own. Don't sleep on her just because the price is long.

Race 2 brings a maiden special weight field going five furlongs, where Oaklyn (5/2 ML, rated 87.81) profiles as a genuinely strong contender — not just a chalk play propped up by the morning line. And in Race 3, Guns and Ships (also rated 87.81) stretches out to a mile in a claiming route that sets up perfectly for a horse with his pace profile. All three free picks have clear, data-backed edges — a nice foundation for building a profitable afternoon.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:20 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This maiden claiming sprint is essentially a two-horse race on the numbers — one horse carries an elite rating well clear of the field, but the second choice at 5/2 offers enough talent to complicate exacta construction.

win4Instant WinnerML 8/5

Instant Winner (No. 4) lives up to the name on paper, posting the field's top TrackWiz rating of 89.12 by a full 13 points over the next contender. Trainer Michael L. Rone sends him out with Luis Raul Rivera at 8/5 morning line, and the avg speed figure of 53 is competitive for the distance. In a maiden claiming field where the rating gap is this significant, backing the chalk here is justified — Instant Winner looks like the real deal.

place7Ravishing RubyML 5/2

Ravishing Ruby (No. 7) is the logical second choice with a 76.10 rating — the only other horse in this field breaking 60 outside our win pick. Luis Alberto Batista rides for trainer Lorenzo Juarez at 5/2 morning line, and with an avg speed of 52, she's run fast enough to hit the board in this company. She's the natural exacta partner with Instant Winner.

show6Hola AmorML 3/1

Hola Amor (No. 6) fills out the show spot with a 56.67 TrackWiz rating and an avg speed of 52. Jefferson Skerrett rides for trainer Saul M. Morales at 3/1 on the morning line, making her one of the longer-priced horses with legitimate numbers. In a field where ratings drop off sharply after the top two, she's the best value option for your trifecta bottom.

Race 5

6:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile claiming affair where the morning line favorite isn't the top-rated horse — Social History carries a significant rating edge over the field-topping chalk, setting up a potential overlay scenario for savvy players.

win3Social HistoryML 6/1

Social History (No. 3) posts an 82.71 TrackWiz rating — comfortably clear of the field — while sitting at 6/1 on the morning line, a significant discrepancy from her projected odds. A 23% career win rate and an avg speed figure of 54 (best in the field) round out a compelling profile for trainer Alejandro Murillo Rodriguez with Alexander Chavez up. This is the value play of the day — a horse who rates the best but goes off at a price.

place5Indian FeverML 2/1

Indian Fever (No. 5) brings the field's top career win rate at 28% — a genuine winner who knows how to finish — with Rocco Bowen aboard for trainer Timothy E. Hamm at 2/1 morning line. The 74.55 rating is second-best in the field, and while the avg speed of 51 slightly trails the leaders, a horse who wins at 28% doesn't need to outrun the figures every time.

show6Check the FactsML 3/1

Check the Facts (No. 6) owns a 20% career win rate and a 71.96 TrackWiz rating with Angel I. Diaz riding for trainer Justine Eder at 3/1. The avg speed of 53 matches up well, and in a mile route where pace can sort itself out late, a 20% winner at a fair price belongs in your trifectas as the third leg.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A 6-furlong claiming sprint for fillies and mares where the top-rated horse doesn't draw the lowest morning line odds — pace figures to be honest with multiple speed types, giving the TrackWiz top choice a potential ground-saving trip.

win3Shes a StormML 7/2

Shes a Storm (No. 3) owns the field's best TrackWiz rating at 86.35 for trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich, who has multiple horses firing on this card. Luis Raul Rivera takes the mount at 7/2 morning line — fair odds for a horse rated this clearly above the field. The 13% career win rate is a touch modest, but the overall profile and class advantage make her the most reliable selection in Race 6.

place2Holidays Army BratML 3/1

Holidays Army Brat (No. 2) brings legitimate credentials with a 75.16 rating and a 19% career win rate — one of the better win percentages in this field. Ricardo Feliciano rides for Robin Schuster at 3/1 morning line, and an avg speed of 53 puts her right in the mix pace-wise. If our top choice catches any trouble, Holidays Army Brat has the tools to steal the show.

show5Secret CallerML 5/2

Secret Caller (No. 5) rates third in the field at 66.66 with a strong 20% career win rate and Gerardo Corrales in the irons for trainer Nestor R. Rivera at 5/2. The avg speed of 53 ties her with the top two horses on that metric, meaning she's not being outrun — she just needs a clean trip and a pace setup that suits her style. Worth including in trifecta tickets.

Race 7

7:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

An allowance mile where the morning line favorite also holds the top TrackWiz number, but a credible second choice lurks at 6/1 — and a curious longshot show pick with strong credentials adds intrigue to the exotics.

win2Tom's AvatarML 2/1

Tom's Avatar (No. 2) leads the field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and draws trainer Timothy E. Hamm, who also runs Skytree in this race — a trainer who enters two horses in the same race often has strong confidence in his main shot. Victor R. Fernandez takes the mount at 2/1 morning line, and a 16% career win rate with an avg speed of 54 (tied for best in the field) supports the chalk price. This is a deserving favorite.

place5Atlas FallsML 6/1

Atlas Falls (No. 5) is the value angle in this allowance, posting an 80.69 TrackWiz rating — just 7.85 points behind our win pick — while sitting at 6/1 on the morning line. Angel I. Diaz rides for trainer Justine Eder, and the avg speed of 54 ties the top horses in the field. A 9% career win rate looks light, but in allowance company, it may simply reflect tough spots — the raw numbers suggest a horse capable of firing big.

show7DuoML 10/1

Duo (No. 7) sneaks into the show spot at 10/1 morning line with a 57.40 TrackWiz rating for trainer Michelle Winters with Alexander Chavez riding. The 7% career win rate is modest, but in an allowance field at a mile where pace can be unpredictable, a longer-priced horse with board potential is worth threading into trifectas. Use Duo as a deep exotic saver.

Race 8

8:20 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

The nightcap allowance mile features a loaded upper tier — three horses rated within 9 points of each other, all with win rates above 28% — making pace and trip the deciding factors in what shapes up as a genuine battle.

win2MoreauML 5/2

Moreau (No. 2) tops the TrackWiz ratings with an 87.81 number and the field's best avg speed figure at 55 — a combination that's hard to argue against. Trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich, who has horses firing all over this card, sends him out with Jose A. Bracho at 5/2 morning line. A 34% career win rate is exceptional and signals a horse who consistently delivers when pointed at a spot — Moreau looks like the right call to close out the card.

place5Sweet as SinML 7/2

Sweet as Sin (No. 5) brings a 28% career win rate — tied for second-best in the field — and a 79.48 TrackWiz rating for trainer Richard Zielinski with Luis Raul Rivera up at 7/2. The avg speed of 53 is competitive, and a horse who wins more than one in four career starts doesn't need perfect conditions to hit the board. She's the natural exotics companion to Moreau.

show7Rhythm 'n BluesML 2/1

Rhythm 'n Blues (No. 7) is fascinating as a show pick because she carries a 31% career win rate — second-highest in the field — and an 78.51 TrackWiz rating, yet sits at just 2/1 morning line as a likely underlay on price. Alexander Chavez rides for trainer Caryn Vecchio, and with an avg speed of 53 and a win rate that rivals our top picks, she's fully capable of winning this race outright. Include her confidently in exotics and don't be shocked if she ends up in the winner's photo.

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Thistledown's September 28 card offers real betting opportunities from the jump. Tizzy Jojo is the headline value play in the openers, Guns and Ships anchors the free-race trifecta, and Tom's Avatar is the name to watch in the allowance feature. For pace scenarios, exotic strategies, and the complete five-race premium breakdown, subscribers have everything they need waiting at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck out there — let's make Monday count.

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