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Thistledown Picks & Predictions — September 24, 2026

September 24, 20268 racesAll Thistledown picks

It's a crisp Thursday at Thistledown — clear skies, 64°F, and a fast dirt track that should reward horses with early speed and clean trips. Eight races are on the board, and the card has a little bit of everything: sprint claimers, allowance routes, and a Stakes race that gives today's card some real teeth.

Conditions are as clean as you'll get this late in the September meet. No rain in the forecast, no slop to sort through — just a straight-up speed figure battle on a dry, consistent surface. That kind of day tends to reward our top-rated horses, and we've got some strong opinions across the full card.

Race 7 is the one to circle — a Stakes event at 1 1/16 miles where Shadowy draws in at a fair 2/1 morning line and carries our top-tier TrackWiz rating. But don't sleep on the early races while you're getting settled.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A clear two-horse battle sits atop this 6-furlong allowance opener, with the rest of the field fighting for minor shares — don't overcomplicate the exotics here.

win2CatpuccinoML 2/1

Catpuccino draws the morning-line favoritism at 2/1 for good reason, posting the field's top TrackWiz rating of 88.54 and a 14% career win rate that holds up well in an allowance field this deep. Jockey Chelsey Keiser gets the call for trainer David Wolochuk, and with the best average speed figure in the race at 54, Catpuccino projects to control or sit just off a manageable early pace. At 2/1 the price isn't generous, but the numbers back the favoritism — this is a deserving chalk play.

place5Kiddie CocktailML 5/2

Kiddie Cocktail is nearly as compelling as the top pick, carrying an 86.98 rating that separates her clearly from the rest of the field. Fernando Salazar Becerra takes the mount for trainer Robert M. Gorham, and with a 12% career win clip and an average speed of 53, she profiles as the most dangerous pace-presser in the race if Catpuccino gets any trouble. At 5/2 on the morning line, she's a natural fit in exactas.

show3Buckeye BombshellML 4/1

Buckeye Bombshell at 4/1 is the most logical exotic anchor outside the top two, carrying a 65.74 rating and a 12% career win percentage that shows she knows how to finish. Luis Antonio Gonzalez has the mount for Valerie K. Shanyfelt, and with the same average speed figure as Kiddie Cocktail, she could fill the board if either of the top choices encounters trouble in the stretch.

Race 2

5:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

General Mathis enters this one-mile claimer as a heavy favorite, but a pair of closers with solid win percentages could make the pace scenario interesting late.

win1General MathisML 2/1

General Mathis is the standout of this field on raw numbers — a 88.54 TrackWiz rating leads all comers, and his 42% career win percentage is simply elite for the claiming ranks. Luis Alberto Batista picks up the ride for trainer Johanna Urieta, who also throws in a second horse (Dew It With Class), suggesting stable confidence in the barn's current condition. The 54 average speed backs up the ratings, and at 2/1, General Mathis looks like exactly the kind of reliable claiming horse you build a ticket around.

place5I Wanna WinML 7/2

I Wanna Win carries a 26% career win rate — one of the better marks in this field — and a solid 81.64 TrackWiz rating that makes her a genuine threat for the exacta. Luis Antonio Gonzalez is aboard for trainer James R. Jackson, and the 7/2 morning line suggests the market respects her too. Over a route of ground, horses with that kind of win consistency tend to find a way to hit the board even when they don't win outright.

show4Who Da BossML 5/1

Who Da Boss is worth including in tri tickets at 5/1, backed by a 24% career win percentage and a 78.0 TrackWiz rating that puts him squarely in contention for minor honors. Trainer Robert M. Gorham sends Erik Barbaran into the gate, and with average speed matching the mid-pack of this field, Who Da Boss should be running at or near the top of the lane when it counts.

Race 3

5:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

Tipsy Tulip enters this allowance mile with a perfect career record and a number that suggests she's in a class of her own — the question is how much you trust that morning line.

win2Tipsy TulipML 8/5

Tipsy Tulip is riding a 100% career win rate into this spot, and her 89.12 TrackWiz rating is the highest in the field by a meaningful margin. Chelsey Keiser gets the mount again for trainer Nestor R. Rivera, who saddles two horses in this race — a sign of barn depth and confidence. The 8/5 morning line reflects the respect the market has for her, and at a mile on the dirt, her 54 average speed should have her well within striking distance at every call.

place3ExponentiallyML 2/1

Exponentially is the most dangerous rival in the field, posting an 88.02 TrackWiz rating that puts her within a point of the top pick. Trainer Michael J. Maker — a nationally respected conditioner — sends Erik Barbaran into the gate, and a 22% career win percentage shows this horse has finished the job before. If Tipsy Tulip faces any adversity or has a rough trip, Exponentially is positioned to pounce.

show1Kingdom TrailsML 5/1

Kingdom Trails at 5/1 brings a 26% career win rate and a 73.25 rating that makes him a live exotic piece in a race where the top two could go at each other. Jose A. Bracho picks up the mount for trainer Nestor R. Rivera — the same barn as the favorite — and that stable connection could be worth noting when it comes to pace strategy and positioning in the early going.

We're opening the card with three free best bets to get you started. Catpuccino (Race 1) and General Mathis (Race 2) both carry matching 88.54 TrackWiz ratings and share the same 2/1 morning line — straightforward plays in an Allowance sprint and a mile Claimer, respectively. Tipsy Tulip tops the free-race ratings with an 89.12 in Race 3, an Allowance mile where she gets in at a sharp 8/5. All three free picks are dirt runners on what looks like a quick, consistent surface today.

The pace scenario in Race 3 is worth noting — route races on dry Thistledown dirt tend to set up for closers once the front-runners burn each other out, so Tipsy Tulip's running style will be something to watch when the gates open. Dig into the full free race cards for position-by-position breakdowns.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This 6-furlong claimer is locked up on paper, with Credit Check posting a number well clear of the field — but a pair of mid-range horses could complicate the exacta order.

win2Credit CheckML 9/5

Credit Check tops this field with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating and the highest average speed figure in the race at 54, giving him a clear edge on both pace and raw ability measures. Fernando Salazar Becerra gets the call for trainer Richard Zielinski, who also has Olympic Wings in the race — suggesting the barn is sending two shots at this one. An 18% career win rate is solid for a claimer, and at 9/5, the market has priced him correctly as the horse to beat.

place1Diamonds N DewML 9/2

Diamonds N Dew at 9/2 brings a 20% career win percentage and a 75.73 TrackWiz rating that separates her from the bottom half of this field. Jose A. Bracho is aboard for trainer Shane Meyers, and her profile fits a closing-style presence that can pick up ground in the final furlong if the pace up front gets honest. The value at 9/2 makes her a strong exacta partner with the favorite.

show4Rollin FreedomML 5/2

Rollin Freedom at 5/2 is priced tighter than her 73.83 TrackWiz rating might suggest, but that 54 average speed is tied for tops in the race and her 18% career win rate shows she's competitive at this level. Trainer Saul M. Morales sends Alexander Chavez to the post, and in a sprint where early pace sets up the finish, Rollin Freedom's speed profile puts her in the thick of it from the start.

Race 5

6:50 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Austrian Navy looms as a heavy on-paper favorite in this allowance optional claimer, but Belle Bottoms and One Smokin' Rita bring legitimate win percentages that give this sprint a real competitive shape.

win5Austrian NavyML 2/1

Austrian Navy posts the field's top TrackWiz rating at 88.54 and a 30% career win percentage that's among the best on today's entire card. Luis Antonio Gonzalez climbs aboard for trainer Kim A. Puhl, who also runs Dance My Way — though all the marquee numbers here point to Austrian Navy as the barn's primary threat. With a 54 average speed matching the top of the field, this is a horse that can go with the pace or sit off it, and at 2/1, the morning line reflects a deserved favoritism.

place2Belle BottomsML 5/2

Belle Bottoms at 5/2 brings a 25% career win rate and an 80.31 TrackWiz rating that makes her the clear second-best horse on paper in this spot. Fernando Salazar Becerra takes the mount for the powerful Nestor R. Rivera barn, and with a 54 average speed matching the top tier, she's set up to pressure the pace and be right there in the lane. She's the natural exacta partner with Austrian Navy.

show4One Smokin' RitaML 7/2

One Smokin' Rita's 28% career win rate is actually the second-highest in the field, and that consistency is worth respecting even with a 68.85 rating that slots her third in the rankings. Alexander Chavez rides for trainer Nestor R. Rivera — the same barn as Belle Bottoms — and at 7/2, she offers solid tri value for bettors looking to spread their show positions. The win percentage suggests a horse that finds the board more often than not.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Power Party tops the ratings in a wide-open 6-furlong claimer, but the win percentages here are low across the board — making this a prime race for pace-scenario handicapping.

win5Power PartyML 9/5

Power Party leads this field with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — tied for one of the highest marks of the day — and the 9/5 morning line signals that the market is onboard. Luis Alberto Batista rides for trainer Oscar Romero, and while a 5% career win rate is modest, that figure often reflects experience level rather than current form in shorter claiming fields. The 52 average speed ties several rivals, so early pace positioning by Batista will matter, but the raw rating advantage is significant.

place1Charisma in MotionML 5/2

Charisma in Motion at 5/2 brings the field's second-best TrackWiz rating at 82.43 and a 20% career win percentage that stands out in a field where most runners are winning less than 15% of the time. Mauro Cedillo pilots for trainer Candace M. Huffman, and a horse with that kind of win consistency at a 5/2 price is a natural exacta investment against the favorite. She's the most trustworthy secondary play in this race.

show4YalordeML 3/1

Yalorde at 3/1 slots in third in our ratings at 77.79 and posts an 11% career win rate with a 53 average speed that gives her a slight pace edge over much of this field. Fernando Salazar Becerra — one of the busiest and most effective riders on the Thistledown circuit today — takes the mount for trainer Rey Juarez-Mendoza. Her rating and jockey assignment make her a solid tri anchor at a price that offers a little value relative to her probability.

Race 7

7:50 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

The featured stakes goes 1 1/16 miles and shapes up as a two-horse race between Shadowy and Ronnis Second Wind, with a cluster of live longshots lurking in the back half of the field.

win6ShadowyML 2/1

Shadowy carries the card's highest TrackWiz rating at 88.54 and a 33% career win percentage that's exceptional in a stakes field — he simply wins at an elite clip. Jockey Laureano Sosa gets the call for Timothy E. Hamm, the dominant trainer in this race with three entries, and the 2/1 morning line is reflective of a horse that the barn clearly views as their best shot. With a 54 average speed and a route pedigree, Shadowy should be forwardly placed and a difficult target to catch in the stretch.

place3Ronnis Second WindML 5/2

Ronnis Second Wind at 5/2 is the most natural threat to Shadowy, bringing a 33% career win rate — matching the top pick — and a 75.14 TrackWiz rating that's a clear step above the rest of the field. Victor R. Fernandez rides for trainer Robert C. Cline, and the 53 average speed suggests this horse will be rolling in the final furlong of the 1 1/16-mile trip. He's our primary exacta play against the favorite.

show4VillianML 9/2

Villian at 9/2 is worth noting for one standout reason: a 40% career win percentage that is the highest in this entire stakes field. Trainer Timothy E. Hamm has Villian as one of three entries, and with a 53 average speed and a 66.55 TrackWiz rating, he's a closer with the win DNA to hit the board in a solid staking company. At 9/2 for a horse with that win rate, there's definite tri value here.

Race 8

8:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Mr. Penny Pincher holds a clear ratings edge in this closing 6-furlong claimer, but Colonel Vargo's eye-catching 43% career win rate makes the exacta order worth debating.

win3Mr. Penny PincherML 5/2

Mr. Penny Pincher leads this field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and an average speed of 55 — tied for tops in the race — giving him a meaningful edge on both the speed figure and overall rating metrics. Jose A. Bracho takes the mount for trainer Richard Zielinski, who has been a consistent presence throughout today's card, and a 23% career win percentage shows this horse regularly converts in claiming company. At 5/2, there's some value relative to the 2/1 morning line on Colonel Vargo, who we actually rate lower despite the tighter odds.

place4Colonel VargoML 2/1

Colonel Vargo at 2/1 comes in with a 43% career win percentage — the most prolific win rate of any horse on today's card — and that number demands respect regardless of where the TrackWiz rating slots him. Jason Simpson rides for trainer Ricardo Bailey, and with a 54 average speed in a six-furlong sprint, Colonel Vargo has the early foot to put himself right in the mix from the jump. He's a strong exacta play, especially for bettors who want to reverse with the top pick.

show5Channel FuryML 7/2

Channel Fury at 7/2 brings a 34% career win rate that's second in this field only to Colonel Vargo, and a 60.78 TrackWiz rating that keeps him in contention for minor honors. Erik Barbaran rides for trainer James R. Jackson, and with a 53 average speed, Channel Fury profiles as a stalker who can sit a couple of lengths off the early pace and come running. In a race where the top two could go at it hard, a closer with this kind of win pedigree is exactly the type to fill out a tri.

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A clean, fast Thistledown card with Shadowy headlining the Stakes in Race 7 and three strong free plays to kick things off in Catpuccino, General Mathis, and Tipsy Tulip. This is a card where the full-card flow matters — pace scenarios in the sprint races and multi-race wager positioning in the back half could make this a profitable Thursday. Subscribers get every edge. Let's get after it.

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