You're reading 3 of 8 races free
Unlock the other 5 races on today's card, plus AI ratings on every runner and SmartBet ticket construction.
Thistledown Picks & Predictions — September 23, 2026
Thistledown is open for business on a cool, overcast Wednesday — 62°F with clouds keeping the sun off the strip. Eight races on the dirt, and the kind of mid-week card that rewards the sharp bettors who dig a little deeper than the morning line.
All eight races go on the main track, so there's no surface-switching to worry about. The cooler temperatures tend to keep the dirt playing fair and fast at this time of year in Northeast Ohio, which should suit horses with honest speed figures and clean trips. Pay attention to pace shape today — on a sealed dirt surface in fall conditions, early speed can be surprisingly durable.
The card has a nice range: six furlongs sprints dominate the lower half, but a pair of one-mile routes in Races 6 and 7 add some tactical depth and give route horses a chance to shine. Whether you're here to play a few races or grind the full card, there's plenty to work with.
Best Bets
Race 1
Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt
The top of the TrackWiz ratings are tightly bunched in this 5½-furlong dirt claimer, with three horses rated 75 or better — expect a competitive pace duel that could set things up for a closers' finish.
Triangulo Rojo tops our ratings at 82.71 despite being overlooked at 6/1 on the morning line — that's a classic overlay situation worth circling. The average speed figure of 53 matches the field's upper tier, and trainer Rey Juarez-Mendoza clearly has this one pointed. At the short sprint distance of 5½ furlongs, pace will be honest, and Triangulo Rojo's profile suggests a horse that can handle a fast early tempo and sustain it. The 6/1 morning line against an 82.71 rating is exactly the kind of discrepancy TrackWiz analysis is built to find.
Big Daddy Hank rates second in the field at 81.04 and is the morning-line third choice at 7/2, which puts him right in the thick of the wagering. Trainer Christian Flores has a horse posting a 53 average speed, in line with the top runners here, and jockey Elijah Greenidge gets the call. A 14% career win rate in claiming company is respectable, and a placing seems very likely given his proximity to the top-rated horse in the field.
Money Magic is the morning-line favorite at 5/2 and carries a 75.2 TrackWiz rating — solid, but not the highest in the field, which is why we slot her for show. The 7% career win rate gives some pause for bettors looking to win, but she posts the field's best average speed figure at 54 and Rocco Bowen is a capable pilot. In a pace-influenced sprint like this, she's the type to hang around for a piece without necessarily taking the prize.
Race 2
Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt
A six-furlong allowance where the top of the field separates itself clearly from the bottom half — this one shapes up as a three-horse race with a legitimate favorite going against two horses that could easily flip the result.
Metaphor heads this allowance field with the highest TrackWiz rating at 87.81 and draws the 5/2 morning line, making this a case where our top-rated horse and the public are in reasonable agreement. Jockey Ricardo Feliciano gets the mount for trainer Anthony F. Rini, and a 13% career win rate in allowance company is a benchmark for this level. The 54 average speed is right there with the bulk of the field, meaning Metaphor wins on overall quality rather than raw speed — that's a good sign for consistency. This is our best bet of the early card.
Whiskey Point at 6/1 represents genuine value for place tickets — a 81.16 TrackWiz rating says this horse belongs in the top three conversations. Trainer Kim A. Puhl also saddles Saving Heart in this race, and having two horses in the field can sometimes complicate pace strategy, but Whiskey Point's 55 average speed — tied for best in the field — is a legitimate performance edge. A 9% career win rate in a six-furlong allowance might look modest, but the raw rating screams upside if everything clicks.
Saving Heart opens at 7/2 and posts a 79.11 rating — the third-best in the field — making a top-three finish a reasonable expectation. The 55 average speed matches Whiskey Point for the field's best, and jockey Luis Antonio Gonzalez is a solid choice for trainer Kim A. Puhl. While the 11% career win rate doesn't set off fireworks, this is a horse that profiles well for exotic tickets, particularly in trifectas where you need reliable finishers in the bottom slots.
Race 3
Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
Tonight looks like a standout on paper against a field where the morning-line favorite carries a lower TrackWiz rating — a vulnerable chalk scenario that could set up overlay opportunities deeper in the order.
Tonight is the most compelling overlay on the early card — an 84.17 TrackWiz rating going postward at 5/1 while the crowd favors Erlan at 9/5. That's a significant gap between public perception and our model. More importantly, Tonight carries a 31% career win rate, which is elite for claiming company at any track and a number that stands out from everyone else in this six-furlong field. Trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich puts Erik Barbaran in the irons, and at six furlongs on dirt, this horse's profile fits the conditions tightly. Don't let the odds fool you — this is a legitimate win play.
Gamboling Ghost opens at 7/2 and rates 73.59 — the third-best mark in this six-horse field. Trainer Jason DaCosta sends out a horse with a 12% career win rate, which is workmanlike for claiming level, and Jerome J. Innis takes the mount. If Tonight goes wire-to-wire as our model suggests, Gamboling Ghost's rating says he's the most likely horse to run second, and the 7/2 morning line offers reasonable place value.
Erlan is the morning-line favorite at 9/5 but ranks third in our ratings at 70.17 — that's a classic case of the crowd overrating a horse, which we'd flag as a vulnerable chalk. That said, a 21% career win rate is legitimate, and trainer Shane Meyers has him primed to run well. We slot Erlan for show because the rating gap between him and Tonight is real, but he's too consistent to ignore completely in exotics.
TrackWiz is unlocking the first three races for everyone today. The free card kicks off with Triangulo Rojo at 6/1 morning line in the opening claiming sprint — a price that looks generous based on our rating of 82.71. Race 2 shifts to allowance company, a step up in class, where Metaphor (5/2 ML, 87.81 rating) stands out as the most accomplished horse in the field. Then Tonight closes out the free picks at 5/1 in Race 3 — another claiming sprint where our models see real value at that number.
A common thread through all three free races: they're short, sharp six-furlong-or-less sprints where early positioning matters. If the track is playing to speed today — and the cool, calm conditions give us reason to think it might — these picks are positioned well. All three represent the kind of value spots where the morning line undersells the actual edge our analysis identifies.
Send me tomorrow's free Thistledown card before post time.
Free picks in your inbox each morning. No card required, unsubscribe anytime.
Full Card Analysis
Premium Content
Get the Full Card Analysis
Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.
Eight races on the Thistledown dirt, a cool afternoon, and three free best bets headlined by Metaphor in Race 2 and value plays from Triangulo Rojo and Tonight to get you started. The full card — including our top-rated pick of the day in Reign Champagne — is waiting for TrackWiz subscribers. Check out our pricing page if you want the complete picture before post time. Good luck today.