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Thistledown Picks & Predictions — September 23, 2026

September 23, 20268 racesAll Thistledown picks

This card ran on September 23, 2026.

Best bets at Thistledown, September 23, 2026

Race 17Triangulo RojoML 6/112:50 PM EDT

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 6 races are for members.

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Thistledown is open for business on a cool, overcast Wednesday — 62°F with clouds keeping the sun off the strip. Eight races on the dirt, and the kind of mid-week card that rewards the sharp bettors who dig a little deeper than the morning line.

All eight races go on the main track, so there's no surface-switching to worry about. The cooler temperatures tend to keep the dirt playing fair and fast at this time of year in Northeast Ohio, which should suit horses with honest speed figures and clean trips. Pay attention to pace shape today — on a sealed dirt surface in fall conditions, early speed can be surprisingly durable.

The card has a nice range: six furlongs sprints dominate the lower half, but a pair of one-mile routes in Races 6 and 7 add some tactical depth and give route horses a chance to shine. Whether you're here to play a few races or grind the full card, there's plenty to work with.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The top of the TrackWiz ratings are tightly bunched in this 5½-furlong dirt claimer, with three horses rated 75 or better — expect a competitive pace duel that could set things up for a closers' finish.

win7Triangulo RojoML 6/1

Triangulo Rojo tops our ratings at 82.71 despite being overlooked at 6/1 on the morning line — that's a classic overlay situation worth circling. The average speed figure of 53 matches the field's upper tier, and trainer Rey Juarez-Mendoza clearly has this one pointed. At the short sprint distance of 5½ furlongs, pace will be honest, and Triangulo Rojo's profile suggests a horse that can handle a fast early tempo and sustain it. The 6/1 morning line against an 82.71 rating is exactly the kind of discrepancy TrackWiz analysis is built to find.

place5Big Daddy HankML 7/2

Big Daddy Hank rates second in the field at 81.04 and is the morning-line third choice at 7/2, which puts him right in the thick of the wagering. Trainer Christian Flores has a horse posting a 53 average speed, in line with the top runners here, and jockey Elijah Greenidge gets the call. A 14% career win rate in claiming company is respectable, and a placing seems very likely given his proximity to the top-rated horse in the field.

show6Money MagicML 5/2

Money Magic is the morning-line favorite at 5/2 and carries a 75.2 TrackWiz rating — solid, but not the highest in the field, which is why we slot her for show. The 7% career win rate gives some pause for bettors looking to win, but she posts the field's best average speed figure at 54 and Rocco Bowen is a capable pilot. In a pace-influenced sprint like this, she's the type to hang around for a piece without necessarily taking the prize.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:20 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A six-furlong allowance where the top of the field separates itself clearly from the bottom half — this one shapes up as a three-horse race with a legitimate favorite going against two horses that could easily flip the result.

win3MetaphorML 5/2

Metaphor heads this allowance field with the highest TrackWiz rating at 87.81 and draws the 5/2 morning line, making this a case where our top-rated horse and the public are in reasonable agreement. Jockey Ricardo Feliciano gets the mount for trainer Anthony F. Rini, and a 13% career win rate in allowance company is a benchmark for this level. The 54 average speed is right there with the bulk of the field, meaning Metaphor wins on overall quality rather than raw speed — that's a good sign for consistency. This is our best bet of the early card.

place5Whiskey PointML 6/1

Whiskey Point at 6/1 represents genuine value for place tickets — a 81.16 TrackWiz rating says this horse belongs in the top three conversations. Trainer Kim A. Puhl also saddles Saving Heart in this race, and having two horses in the field can sometimes complicate pace strategy, but Whiskey Point's 55 average speed — tied for best in the field — is a legitimate performance edge. A 9% career win rate in a six-furlong allowance might look modest, but the raw rating screams upside if everything clicks.

show1Saving HeartML 7/2

Saving Heart opens at 7/2 and posts a 79.11 rating — the third-best in the field — making a top-three finish a reasonable expectation. The 55 average speed matches Whiskey Point for the field's best, and jockey Luis Antonio Gonzalez is a solid choice for trainer Kim A. Puhl. While the 11% career win rate doesn't set off fireworks, this is a horse that profiles well for exotic tickets, particularly in trifectas where you need reliable finishers in the bottom slots.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

TrackWiz is unlocking the first three races for everyone today. The free card kicks off with Triangulo Rojo at 6/1 morning line in the opening claiming sprint — a price that looks generous based on our rating of 82.71. Race 2 shifts to allowance company, a step up in class, where Metaphor (5/2 ML, 87.81 rating) stands out as the most accomplished horse in the field. Then Tonight closes out the free picks at 5/1 in Race 3 — another claiming sprint where our models see real value at that number.

A common thread through all three free races: they're short, sharp six-furlong-or-less sprints where early positioning matters. If the track is playing to speed today — and the cool, calm conditions give us reason to think it might — these picks are positioned well. All three represent the kind of value spots where the morning line undersells the actual edge our analysis identifies.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Tonight looks like a standout on paper against a field where the morning-line favorite carries a lower TrackWiz rating — a vulnerable chalk scenario that could set up overlay opportunities deeper in the order.

win3TonightML 5/1

Tonight is the most compelling overlay on the early card — an 84.17 TrackWiz rating going postward at 5/1 while the crowd favors Erlan at 9/5. That's a significant gap between public perception and our model. More importantly, Tonight carries a 31% career win rate, which is elite for claiming company at any track and a number that stands out from everyone else in this six-furlong field. Trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich puts Erik Barbaran in the irons, and at six furlongs on dirt, this horse's profile fits the conditions tightly. Don't let the odds fool you — this is a legitimate win play.

place1Gamboling GhostML 7/2

Gamboling Ghost opens at 7/2 and rates 73.59 — the third-best mark in this six-horse field. Trainer Jason DaCosta sends out a horse with a 12% career win rate, which is workmanlike for claiming level, and Jerome J. Innis takes the mount. If Tonight goes wire-to-wire as our model suggests, Gamboling Ghost's rating says he's the most likely horse to run second, and the 7/2 morning line offers reasonable place value.

show2ErlanML 9/5

Erlan is the morning-line favorite at 9/5 but ranks third in our ratings at 70.17 — that's a classic case of the crowd overrating a horse, which we'd flag as a vulnerable chalk. That said, a 21% career win rate is legitimate, and trainer Shane Meyers has him primed to run well. We slot Erlan for show because the rating gap between him and Tonight is real, but he's too consistent to ignore completely in exotics.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 4

2:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This six-furlong claimer is a premium race — locked behind the TrackWiz subscription wall for good reason — and River Bye looks like a dominant figure against a field with a clear ratings drop-off after the top three.

win3River ByeML 2/1

River Bye posts the highest TrackWiz rating in today's entire card at 88.54 and goes postward at a fair 2/1. Trainer Kim A. Puhl, who is having a strong day on the card, puts Luis Antonio Gonzalez aboard — a jockey who knows this barn well. A 13% career win rate in claiming company is steady, and a 53 average speed matches the field consensus, meaning River Bye wins on overall quality. When the top-rated horse in the race is also the morning-line favorite at a fair price, you lean in.

place5VecchiML 3/1

Vecchi rates 78.4 — clearly the second-best horse in this field — and trainer Rey Juarez-Mendoza has him going at 3/1 with Fernando Salazar Becerra up. The 6% career win rate is on the low side, but this is a horse whose TrackWiz rating suggests the form is there even if the results haven't fully arrived yet. If River Bye does everything expected, Vecchi is the logical bridesmaid, and 3/1 place value is worth including in your tickets.

show1Kettle CoalmineML 9/5

Kettle Coalmine is the morning-line second choice at 9/5 with a 70.68 rating — that's third in the field, which is exactly where we slot him. Angel I. Diaz rides for trainer Rodney C. Faulkner, and an 11% career win rate in claiming company is par for the course at this level. He's a bit overvalued relative to his rating in the win pool, but for show and trifecta purposes, he rounds out the top three cleanly.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 5

2:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Chalon's First figures to shake up the pace scenario despite going postward at 5/1 — the morning-line favorite is ranked below two other horses in our ratings, which creates some real exotic opportunities here.

win1Chalon's FirstML 5/1

Chalon's First tops our ratings at 84.17 and presents excellent value at 5/1 on the morning line — the public has leaned toward Simply Valid at 8/5, but our model sees things differently. The 30% career win rate for trainer Michael L. Rone's horse is one of the strongest numbers you'll find in a claiming field today, and Erik Barbaran is an experienced rider who can navigate the pace from any position. At six furlongs on dirt, a horse with that win rate and a top rating at 5/1 is exactly the kind of play TrackWiz subscribers love to uncover.

place4Simply ValidML 8/5

Simply Valid is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 and rates 79.04 — second in the field — so while we think Chalon's First has the edge, fading the favorite entirely in claiming company is risky. A 21% career win rate supports the public's confidence, and trainer Jose Atala has a ready horse with Fernando Salazar Becerra up. For place, Simply Valid is exactly the type of reliable second finisher you want anchoring your exacta combinations.

show7Zimba WarriorML 9/2

Zimba Warrior is our show pick at 76.26 and 9/2 on the morning line, slotting in third in our ratings in a field that has a real gap after the top two. Trainer David Kirk, Jr. sends out a horse with a 20% career win rate — very solid — and a 54 average speed that's right at the field's upper range. T.D. Houghton takes the mount, and with a pace scenario that may get complicated up front, a steady closer like Zimba Warrior can arrive for a piece of the purse.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 6

3:20 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

One-mile Starter Optional Claiming at Thistledown, and Reign Champagne looks like a dominant figure — the highest-rated horse on today's entire card sits at a short price but may justify every cent of it.

win6Reign ChampagneML 8/5

Reign Champagne leads all horses on today's card with an 89.12 TrackWiz rating and goes as the 8/5 morning-line favorite — this is as close to a standout as you'll find at a regional track on a Wednesday. Trainer Kim A. Puhl, who has multiple live horses on today's card, has Luis Antonio Gonzalez up, a rider who's been busy and productive in today's program. A 26% career win rate at route distances adds another layer of confidence, and the one-mile configuration should suit a horse of this profile. At 8/5 the return is modest, but the rating says this one should be on the scorecard.

place4Hot GunnerML 2/1

Hot Gunner opens at 2/1 as the morning-line second choice with a 71.4 rating — nearly 18 points below Reign Champagne, which tells the full story. That said, trainer Kim A. Puhl has two horses in this race, and a 21% career win rate from Hot Gunner is legitimately strong. Rocco Bowen is in the irons and knows how to handle a one-turn mile at a smaller oval. If Reign Champagne stumbles or gets into early trouble, Hot Gunner is well positioned to benefit.

show1Eddie MML 8/1

Eddie M is a sneaky show play at 8/1 on the morning line with a 60.93 rating and a 26% career win rate — matching Reign Champagne's win rate at significantly longer odds. Trainer Nestor R. Rivera runs two horses in this race, which can sometimes complicate the trip, but Eddie M's win percentage over a career is hard to dismiss entirely. In a one-mile route where pace can stretch the field out, a horse with that kind of record often shows up for third money when the favorites battle it out up front.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 7

3:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The morning-line favorite goes postward with our second-lowest rating in the race — this is a prime vulnerable chalk scenario where I Belong First and Pride and Attitude both loom as superior options at better prices.

win6I Belong FirstML 9/5

I Belong First is the morning-line favorite at 9/5, but the fact that our model rates them 88.83 — the top mark in the field — means the public and TrackWiz analysis are aligned here for once. Trainer Justin Radosevich puts Jose A. Bracho aboard, a jockey who's been busy on today's card, and the 14% career win rate in claiming company is workmanlike but the rating says more. At one mile on dirt, a horse that earns an 88.83 rating against this field shouldn't need much help. Lean in despite the short price.

place1Pride and AttitudeML 3/1

Pride and Attitude is where things get interesting — an 83.93 TrackWiz rating going off at 3/1 on the morning line is legitimate value for exacta and place bettors. Trainer Joseph M. Poole has a horse whose 6% career win rate looks alarming on the surface, but the raw rating says the form is much better than the win tally suggests — perhaps a horse that consistently runs second or third without breaking through. Ricardo Feliciano gets the call, and if I Belong First gets into any trouble at the one-mile distance, Pride and Attitude is positioned to strike.

show2ExaltadaML 4/1

Exaltada rates 73.78 — third in the field — and opens at 4/1 with a 15% career win rate that's above average for the field. Trainer Robert C. Cline also sends out Lesotho, the morning-line second choice, so he'll have multiple horses to play with tactically. Mauro Cedillo rides, and at four miles, an experienced routing type like Exaltada can find her footing late. She's a solid trifecta piece when pairing with I Belong First and Pride and Attitude on top.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 8

4:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The nightcap is a claiming sprint where the morning-line favorite isn't our top choice — Crackle rates significantly higher than Timely Secret despite going off at twice the odds, making this a prime overlay situation to close out the card.

win5CrackleML 4/1

Crackle tops our ratings at 83.75 and opens at 4/1 on the morning line while the public gravitates toward Timely Secret at 2/1 — a 21-point rating gap that's impossible to ignore. Trainer Khadeem Galloway sends out a horse with a 13% career win rate at claiming level, and Fernando Salazar Becerra is in the irons for a six-furlong dirt sprint. The pace should set up well for a horse with Crackle's profile — there's enough pace in this field to soften things up. Our model is confident, and 4/1 is the right price to play.

place7Airforce LightningML 8/1

Airforce Lightning is the genuine value play in this race — a 79.79 TrackWiz rating going off at 8/1 on the morning line is exactly the kind of number that gets TrackWiz subscribers excited about exactas and trifectas. Trainer Rey Juarez-Mendoza has had a productive card today, and Erik Barbaran brings consistent riding skills to a horse that should be running on at the top of the lane. A 11% career win rate in claiming company is modest, but the rating says this horse runs better than the tote board suggests.

show1Opulent WaysML 5/1

Opulent Ways opens at 5/1 with a 67.29 rating and a 16% career win rate — third-best credentials in a field where the bottom half falls off sharply. Rocco Bowen takes the mount for trainer Mikhail Carmichael, and at six furlongs on dirt, this is a horse that profiles as a consistent third-money type. If Crackle and Airforce Lightning both run to their ratings, Opulent Ways is well-placed to close out the trifecta and give your tickets a paying finish on the final race of the night.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

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Eight races on the Thistledown dirt, a cool afternoon, and three free best bets headlined by Metaphor in Race 2 and value plays from Triangulo Rojo and Tonight to get you started. The full card — including our top-rated pick of the day in Reign Champagne — is waiting for TrackWiz subscribers. Check out our pricing page if you want the complete picture before post time. Good luck today.

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