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Thistledown Picks & Predictions — September 22, 2026
Tuesday's card at Thistledown rolls out under a cloudy sky with temperatures sitting at a comfortable 63°F — the kind of cool, overcast afternoon that tends to keep the track consistent and speed figures honest. Eight races are on the docket, all on the dirt, mixing claiming company with a pair of Maiden Special Weight spots that could surface some genuine talent.
The distances range from 5½ furlongs all the way out to a one-mile route — meaning pace scenarios will shift dramatically from race to race. Whether you're hunting a sharp front-runner in a sprint or looking to back a closer with a strong late kick going two turns, today's card has angles to attack from every direction.
TrackWiz has ratings and top picks locked in for all eight races. Three are free to all readers. Here's what to know before you head to the windows.
Best Bets
Race 1
Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt
A deep nine-horse claiming mile with a clear top-rated standout at the top, but several live contenders lurking at overlaid prices who could make this interesting deep in the stretch.
Impressiveness carries the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 87.81 and opens at a fair 5/2 on the morning line — not a giveaway price, but justifiable given the edge. Fernando Salazar Becerra gets the mount for trainer Marco Ccamaque, and that 21% career win rate is among the best in this field. At one mile on dirt, pace scenario matters, and Impressiveness looks well-positioned to handle the distance. Hard to knock this one off the top.
Z Boss at 6/1 is a nice price for a horse posting a 78.66 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field. Trainer Michael L. Rone puts Erik Barbaran up, and while the 13% career win rate is modest, the rating suggests there's more class here than the odds imply. A pace scenario that sets up for closers could bring Z Boss right into the picture.
Florida Gator sneaks into our show slot at 8/1 morning line with a 69.68 rating and the field's best average speed figure at 54. Rocco Bowen takes the reins for trainer Johanna Urieta, a barn that also fires Canela Fina in Race 2 — they're active today. In a nine-horse field with pace pressure expected up front, a horse with that kind of pure speed can steal a piece late.
Race 2
Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt
Miss Lora Ann looks like a heavy-duty favorite in this 5.5-furlong dirt claimer, but a pair of overlooked price horses bring enough upside to make the exotics worth constructing carefully.
Miss Lora Ann tops our board with an 89.12 rating — dominant for this level — and opens at 8/5, which reflects her class advantage here. Jose A. Bracho rides for trainer Yoni R. Orantes, and that average speed figure of 54 is tied for tops in the field along with Truest Air. The career win rate of 7% looks low, but the rating and speed tell a different story — this filly may have been competitive against tougher. Straightforward top choice.
Truest Air at 10/1 is where the value lives. That 53.85 rating and a 54 average speed figure — matching the favorite's raw speed — suggest the morning line is underselling this one. Trainer Michael L. Rone and jockey Erik Barbaran are a familiar combo, and in a sprint like 5.5 furlongs where pace dynamics can shake things up fast, Truest Air at double-digit odds is worth a place ticket.
Silver Brook closes the exacta from the outside at 5/2 with a 55 average speed figure — actually the best in the field — and a 14% career win rate that leads all contenders. Trainer James R. Jackson sends her out with Jason Simpson, and in a shorter sprint where pure quickness matters, that speed number demands respect. If the favorite gets beat, Silver Brook is the most likely beneficiary.
Race 3
Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt
An intriguing maiden special weight sprint where every horse is still looking for that first win, but TrackWiz ratings create a clear two-horse top tier that separates itself sharply from the rest of the field.
Exodus is our top selection with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — the best in this maiden field by a comfortable margin — and opens at a fair 9/5. Luis Raul Rivera rides for trainer Michael L. Rone, who also has Truest Air entered earlier in the card today, signaling the barn is firing on all cylinders. A 54 average speed figure in a maiden sprint is solid, and the rating-to-odds relationship here is tight but defendable. This is a horse that profiles as a genuine winner waiting to happen.
Kukuk sits second in our ratings at 72.72 and draws a more generous 7/2 on the morning line — making it the best odds-to-rating value in the top trio. Fernando Salazar Becerra gets the mount for trainer Nestor R. Rivera, and that 54 average speed figure ties Exodus for the field's best. In maiden races, pace can go sideways quickly, and having a horse with both speed and upside at 7/2 as a backup is smart race construction.
Fanti is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 despite our ratings slotting the horse third at 67.85 — an interesting divergence worth noting. The 56 average speed figure is the highest in the entire field, which may explain the public's affection. Trainer Jacinto Lopez and jockey Mauro Cedillo are live in maiden company, and if raw speed wins out in the early fractions, Fanti can absolutely get a piece of this.
Our free selections today are spread across the first three races, giving you a nice early-card foundation to build from. Impressiveness headlines Race 1 going one mile in claiming company — a route trip that should suit any horse who can rate off the pace and fire in the stretch. Over in Race 2, Miss Lora Ann draws our top mark at 5½ furlongs and carries the highest morning line favoritism of the free trio at 8/5, which tells you the market agrees with our model. Then Race 3 brings a Maiden Special Weight at 6 furlongs where Exodus pops as the standout — MSW sprints are a prime spot to catch lightly raced horses on the way up, and Exodus rates as a legitimate win threat.
With the track playing under consistent conditions today, we're not seeing major surface bias concerns in the early going. All three free picks project cleanly based on their ratings — no red flags from the weather, no significant track variance to navigate. Solid spots to get your day started.
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Eight dirt races, a cool and stable afternoon, and a card that rewards sharp pace reading — Thistledown is worth your full attention today. Impressiveness, Miss Lora Ann, and Exodus are the free best bets to anchor your early card. For the full picture on Races 4–8, including exotic ticket breakdowns and pace projections, subscribe to TrackWiz Premium and get every angle before the gates open.