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Thistledown Picks & Predictions — September 22, 2026

September 22, 20268 racesAll Thistledown picks

This card ran on September 22, 2026.

Best bets at Thistledown, September 22, 2026

Race 11ImpressivenessML 5/212:50 PM EDT

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 6 races are for members.

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Tuesday's card at Thistledown rolls out under a cloudy sky with temperatures sitting at a comfortable 63°F — the kind of cool, overcast afternoon that tends to keep the track consistent and speed figures honest. Eight races are on the docket, all on the dirt, mixing claiming company with a pair of Maiden Special Weight spots that could surface some genuine talent.

The distances range from 5½ furlongs all the way out to a one-mile route — meaning pace scenarios will shift dramatically from race to race. Whether you're hunting a sharp front-runner in a sprint or looking to back a closer with a strong late kick going two turns, today's card has angles to attack from every direction.

TrackWiz has ratings and top picks locked in for all eight races. Three are free to all readers. Here's what to know before you head to the windows.

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Race 1

12:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A deep nine-horse claiming mile with a clear top-rated standout at the top, but several live contenders lurking at overlaid prices who could make this interesting deep in the stretch.

win1ImpressivenessML 5/2

Impressiveness carries the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 87.81 and opens at a fair 5/2 on the morning line — not a giveaway price, but justifiable given the edge. Fernando Salazar Becerra gets the mount for trainer Marco Ccamaque, and that 21% career win rate is among the best in this field. At one mile on dirt, pace scenario matters, and Impressiveness looks well-positioned to handle the distance. Hard to knock this one off the top.

place7Z BossML 6/1

Z Boss at 6/1 is a nice price for a horse posting a 78.66 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field. Trainer Michael L. Rone puts Erik Barbaran up, and while the 13% career win rate is modest, the rating suggests there's more class here than the odds imply. A pace scenario that sets up for closers could bring Z Boss right into the picture.

show8Florida GatorML 8/1

Florida Gator sneaks into our show slot at 8/1 morning line with a 69.68 rating and the field's best average speed figure at 54. Rocco Bowen takes the reins for trainer Johanna Urieta, a barn that also fires Canela Fina in Race 2 — they're active today. In a nine-horse field with pace pressure expected up front, a horse with that kind of pure speed can steal a piece late.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Miss Lora Ann looks like a heavy-duty favorite in this 5.5-furlong dirt claimer, but a pair of overlooked price horses bring enough upside to make the exotics worth constructing carefully.

win3Miss Lora AnnML 8/5

Miss Lora Ann tops our board with an 89.12 rating — dominant for this level — and opens at 8/5, which reflects her class advantage here. Jose A. Bracho rides for trainer Yoni R. Orantes, and that average speed figure of 54 is tied for tops in the field along with Truest Air. The career win rate of 7% looks low, but the rating and speed tell a different story — this filly may have been competitive against tougher. Straightforward top choice.

place5Truest AirML 10/1

Truest Air at 10/1 is where the value lives. That 53.85 rating and a 54 average speed figure — matching the favorite's raw speed — suggest the morning line is underselling this one. Trainer Michael L. Rone and jockey Erik Barbaran are a familiar combo, and in a sprint like 5.5 furlongs where pace dynamics can shake things up fast, Truest Air at double-digit odds is worth a place ticket.

show6Silver BrookML 5/2

Silver Brook closes the exacta from the outside at 5/2 with a 55 average speed figure — actually the best in the field — and a 14% career win rate that leads all contenders. Trainer James R. Jackson sends her out with Jason Simpson, and in a shorter sprint where pure quickness matters, that speed number demands respect. If the favorite gets beat, Silver Brook is the most likely beneficiary.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Our free selections today are spread across the first three races, giving you a nice early-card foundation to build from. Impressiveness headlines Race 1 going one mile in claiming company — a route trip that should suit any horse who can rate off the pace and fire in the stretch. Over in Race 2, Miss Lora Ann draws our top mark at 5½ furlongs and carries the highest morning line favoritism of the free trio at 8/5, which tells you the market agrees with our model. Then Race 3 brings a Maiden Special Weight at 6 furlongs where Exodus pops as the standout — MSW sprints are a prime spot to catch lightly raced horses on the way up, and Exodus rates as a legitimate win threat.

With the track playing under consistent conditions today, we're not seeing major surface bias concerns in the early going. All three free picks project cleanly based on their ratings — no red flags from the weather, no significant track variance to navigate. Solid spots to get your day started.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:50 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

An intriguing maiden special weight sprint where every horse is still looking for that first win, but TrackWiz ratings create a clear two-horse top tier that separates itself sharply from the rest of the field.

win5ExodusML 9/5

Exodus is our top selection with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — the best in this maiden field by a comfortable margin — and opens at a fair 9/5. Luis Raul Rivera rides for trainer Michael L. Rone, who also has Truest Air entered earlier in the card today, signaling the barn is firing on all cylinders. A 54 average speed figure in a maiden sprint is solid, and the rating-to-odds relationship here is tight but defendable. This is a horse that profiles as a genuine winner waiting to happen.

place6KukukML 7/2

Kukuk sits second in our ratings at 72.72 and draws a more generous 7/2 on the morning line — making it the best odds-to-rating value in the top trio. Fernando Salazar Becerra gets the mount for trainer Nestor R. Rivera, and that 54 average speed figure ties Exodus for the field's best. In maiden races, pace can go sideways quickly, and having a horse with both speed and upside at 7/2 as a backup is smart race construction.

show4FantiML 8/5

Fanti is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 despite our ratings slotting the horse third at 67.85 — an interesting divergence worth noting. The 56 average speed figure is the highest in the entire field, which may explain the public's affection. Trainer Jacinto Lopez and jockey Mauro Cedillo are live in maiden company, and if raw speed wins out in the early fractions, Fanti can absolutely get a piece of this.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 4

2:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Two horses — Condemnation and Gottomakeithappen — separate themselves from the pack with elite ratings, making this a potential match race at the top with the rest of the field battling for the show spot.

win4CondemnationML 9/5

Condemnation tops the field with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating and posts a 55 average speed figure — the best in this seven-horse claiming sprint. Rocco Bowen handles the mount for trainer Julie A. Pappada, and while the 10% career win rate is nothing to write home about, the underlying numbers point to a horse running well above its past win percentages. Opening at 9/5, the market agrees this is the one to beat.

place2GottomakeithappenML 5/2

Gottomakeithappen is essentially a co-favorite in our model at 85.62 — just a tick behind Condemnation — and the 5/2 morning line gives you slightly better value. Trainer Gary L. Johnson doubles up in this race with Rumble Strip Ron as well, which suggests a barn with confidence in this spot. A 54 average speed figure and 14% career win rate round out a profile that screams legitimate contender. The place spot feels very secure here.

show7ZakariaML 7/2

Zakaria at 7/2 rates third in our model at 78.12 and brings a 15% career win rate that's actually the best of all seven horses in this field. Victor R. Fernandez gets the ride for trainer Susan D. Yoder, and a 54 average speed figure keeps pace with the top two. If the pace up front between the two favorites gets hot, Zakaria is the most likely horse to sweep past the rubble for a share.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 5

2:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Spirit of Akron and Gray Day are nearly inseparable at the top of the ratings in this six-furlong dirt claimer, setting up a potential duel that could leave the door cracked for Worthy Opponent underneath.

win3Spirit of AkronML 8/5

Spirit of Akron leads our ratings by a razor-thin margin at 88.62 and draws 8/5 on the morning line for the Jose A. Bracho–Shane Meyers combo. A 54 average speed figure and a 14% career win rate are respectable for the class, and Meyers is an active barn at Thistledown this meet. In a six-furlong sprint, early position matters, and Spirit of Akron's profile suggests a horse that can be forwardly placed without burning out.

place5Gray DayML 2/1

Gray Day is nearly a dead heat in our model at 88.54 and opens as the 2/1 second choice — making it arguably the better value of the two top picks. Jason Simpson takes the mount for trainer Ricardo Bailey, and that pairing deserves respect. The 11% career win rate is the one soft spot, but the raw rating and 52 average speed figure suggest this is a horse running into top form right now. Overlapping win and place tickets on this pair is a smart approach.

show6Worthy OpponentML 9/2

Worthy Opponent brings a 21% career win rate — the best in the field and among the most impressive we'll see all day at Thistledown — which gives trainer Candace M. Huffman plenty of reason to like her chances. The 74.9 rating and 9/2 morning line represent solid value for a show position in exotics. Gerardo Corrales rides, and a 54 average speed figure ties the top horses on raw pace. Don't leave this one off your tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 6

3:20 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden sprint where the morning-line chalk and the TrackWiz top pick diverge — Rabbi Rosette posts the field's best rating despite opening at 2/1, while the board has nuances that make the exacta worth targeting.

win6Rabbi RosetteML 2/1

Rabbi Rosette leads all horses in this maiden special weight at an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — a commanding figure in a field where most horses are still trying to find their ceiling. Ricardo Feliciano gets the mount for trainer Benny R. Feliciano, a family operation that typically knows exactly what they have when they run. A 53 average speed figure pairs nicely with the top rating, and at 2/1, this is a short price but a defensible one given the talent gap at the top.

place3Storm SearchML 5/1

Storm Search opens at 5/1 with a 78.92 rating — clearly second-best in this field and a horse that jumps off the page as undervalued relative to its position in the market. Trainer Dale Carrington sends out Joe Stokes, and that 53 average speed figure matches the favorite's raw quickness. In maiden races where favorites can be unpredictable, Storm Search at 5/1 is a genuinely compelling place play.

show2Basis PointML 9/5

Basis Point is the morning-line second choice at 9/5 but ranks third in our ratings at 58.67 — a reminder that public money and analytical models don't always agree. Trainer Jay P. Bernardini puts Brandon Tapara up, and a 52 average speed figure is workable at 5.5 furlongs. The show spot here might feel conservative given the morning-line position, but in a maiden race with first-time starters and unpredictable development, keeping Basis Point in your exotics is prudent insurance.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 7

3:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Sgt York and Dream Police are the class of this one-mile claiming field, but the pace scenario at a distance that rewards stamina could tighten things up considerably in the final turn.

win4Sgt YorkML 2/1

Sgt York carries the field's top rating at 88.54 and opens at 2/1 — a price that reflects genuine public confidence. Erik Barbaran rides for trainer Shane Meyers, who is having an active day at the track with multiple entries. A 52 average speed figure over a mile of dirt is steady, and the 6% career win rate understates what the underlying numbers show. This is a horse our model trusts at the top of the card.

place6Dream PoliceML 8/5

Dream Police is the 8/5 morning-line favorite despite ranking second in our model at 80.89 — meaning the public likes this one even more than we do. Rocco Bowen is one of the circuit's top riders, and a 16% career win rate is legitimately elite in this field. The 53 average speed figure edges out the top pick by a tick on raw pace, and trainer Timothy E. Hamm clearly has this horse pointed right. The place spot feels like a near-lock.

show5Indy's HopeML 7/2

Indy's Hope opens at 7/2 with a 63.54 rating and draws a live pace scenario at one mile where a horse sitting off the leaders can pounce late. David J. Haldar gets the mount for trainer Ivan Vazquez, and while the 50 average speed figure is the field's lowest among the top contenders, one-mile dirt races don't always go to the fastest horse out of the gate — they go to the horse who runs the smartest trip. Indy's Hope profiles as that kind of patient closer.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 8

4:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Trainer Jeffrey Skerrett has two live horses in this mile claimer — including the top-rated Candymonium — while Curls Nite Out makes for a fascinating rival with an elite rating of her own, setting up a sharp-money battle at the top.

win3CandymoniumML 9/5

Candymonium tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.83 — the highest mark we've seen in any race on today's card — and Jefferson Skerrett gets the call for his own father's barn, a confident family angle worth noting. The 9/5 morning line is short but earned, and an 11% career win rate doesn't tell the full story when the rating is this dominant. One word of caution: the 51 average speed figure is actually the lowest among the top contenders in this race, so Candymonium will need to rate well and produce a strong finishing kick.

place6Curls Nite OutML 2/1

Curls Nite Out is essentially tied at the top with an 87.68 rating and opens at 2/1 — and brings a 16% career win rate that is the best in this seven-horse field. Victor R. Fernandez rides for trainer Robert C. Cline, and a 53 average speed figure actually outpaces the top pick on raw quickness. This is the kind of horse where you can make a legitimate argument for reversing the win and place picks, and including both in an exacta box is a sound strategy.

show1ElikaML 7/2

Elika rounds out our top three at a 66.02 rating and 7/2 morning line, sitting comfortably clear of the rest of the field. Jason Simpson has the mount for trainer Ricardo Bailey — a combo that shows up often and competes hard. A 12% career win rate and 52 average speed figure are respectable in this company, and in a race where the top two might duke it out on the front end, Elika's ability to sit just off the pace could produce a late run for third money.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

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Eight dirt races, a cool and stable afternoon, and a card that rewards sharp pace reading — Thistledown is worth your full attention today. Impressiveness, Miss Lora Ann, and Exodus are the free best bets to anchor your early card. For the full picture on Races 4–8, including exotic ticket breakdowns and pace projections, subscribe to TrackWiz Premium and get every angle before the gates open.

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