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Thistledown Picks & Predictions — September 21, 2026

September 21, 20268 racesAll Thistledown picks

Thistledown rolls out an 8-race all-dirt card on Monday, September 21, and the conditions are about as clean as you could ask for heading into fall. It's 64°F and overcast — the kind of cool, settled afternoon where horses tend to run their best numbers and pace scenarios play out honestly. No rain, no sloppy excuses.

The card leans heavily on sprints, with five of eight races going at 5½ furlongs or 6 furlongs. That sets up a pace-heavy day where early speed will be tested and closers could find their opportunities in the right spots. We've got a mix of Allowance races, Claiming contests, and a pair of Maiden Special Weights that always carry some intrigue — and some risk.

Three races are open to all TrackWiz readers today, covering the first three races on the card. The remaining five are part of our full premium breakdown. Whether you're dipping in for a race or two or grinding the whole card, there's plenty to work with here.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

A wide-open mile allowance with a clear ratings gap at the top — but the morning line spreads from 5/2 all the way to 15/1, so pace and trip could shuffle the deck late.

win10Phreddie MacML 5/2

Phreddie Mac carries the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 87.81 and heads to the gate at a workable 5/2 morning line with trainer Kim A. Puhl sending him out for a solid effort. His average speed figure of 53 is competitive for this level, and at a mile, a horse with his profile has time to settle and unleash. Luis Antonio Gonzalez gets the call and pairs well with a horse that should appreciate the added ground. At morning-line odds, he's the most credible top choice in a race that needs one.

place8Trouble in MotownML 4/1

Trouble in Motown is the most intriguing horse underneath, bringing a 40% career win rate — tops in the field by a wide margin — and the best average speed figure at 55. Jockey Gerardo Corrales pairs with trainer Justin Radosevich on a horse priced at 4/1 morning line, which feels like mild overlay territory given the raw talent here. If Phreddie Mac runs into any traffic at a mile, Trouble in Motown has the foot to challenge late.

show3Swayback MobilML 12/1

Swayback Mobil is your show-ticket value play at 12/1 morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 73.96, third-best in the field. He posts an average speed figure of 54 and trainer Rey Juarez-Mendoza keeps him competitive at this level. In a contentious mile where the front-runners could soften each other up, Alexander Chavez can angle him into a slice of the exotic pie at a very friendly price.

Race 2

5:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite has a massive ratings gap over the field in this 5½-furlong claiming sprint, but a trio of mid-priced runners will be fighting for the minor awards.

win8Leo's LegacyML 3/1

Leo's Legacy owns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.08 — a full 22-plus points clear of the next best — and is sensibly priced at 3/1 morning line despite being the clear top selection. Jockey Luis Raul Rivera handles the mount for trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich, a barn that also saddles Gunn's Roar in this race, showing stable confidence in Leo's ability to deliver. An average speed figure of 53 in a sprint for claimers fits the task, and a 5½-furlong trip favors a horse with early zip who doesn't need to be rated. This is TrackWiz's most confident top selection of the day.

place3Union SwagML 10/1

Union Swag is the place value in this field, sitting at 10/1 morning line despite a TrackWiz rating of 64.39 — second best on the sheet. Trainer Gary L. Johnson sends him out with Deshawn L. Parker aboard, and a career win rate of 5% in claiming company suggests he's been competitive without always closing the deal. At double-digit odds, he's an ideal exacta partner for Leo's Legacy if the pace sets up for a closer.

show6Gunn's RoarML 6/1

Gunn's Roar rates third in the field at 58.44 with an 11% career win rate and posts the same average speed figure (53) as the top selection. Jose A. Bracho, one of the track's more active jockeys today, picks up the mount for the Radosevich barn — which gives this horse secondary stable confidence. At 6/1, he's a legitimate show-ticket inclusion and a live triactor wheel spoke.

Race 3

5:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A six-furlong allowance where the top two ratings are tightly bunched but the morning line has them priced very differently — creating a potential overlay situation underneath.

win6ReddenML 5/2

Redden shares the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 87.81 and is appropriately tabbed the 5/2 morning-line choice. Victor R. Fernandez has the assignment for trainer Robert C. Cline, a respectable combination for this level. His average speed figure of 53 is right in the zone for a six-furlong allowance at Thistledown, and with only a 10% career win rate, he's clearly been competitive in tougher spots and may be primed for a breakthrough effort here.

place3El Canelo OneML 6/1

El Canelo One checks in with a 77.15 TrackWiz rating and goes for trainer Rey Juarez-Mendoza with Jose A. Bracho — one of the busiest and most effective jockeys on today's card — in the irons. At 6/1 morning line, there's tangible value here relative to his rating. His 8% career win rate suggests he's been running against tough competition, and a drop or lateral move into this spot could be the key to unlocking a big effort.

show8P J's BoyML 2/1

P J's Boy brings an eye-catching 30% career win rate into this spot, the best among all starters in Race 3. Trainer Jacinto Lopez sends him out at 2/1 morning line with Mauro Cedillo aboard, and his average speed figure of 53 fits the distance. He's a logical show anchor — the kind of solid, consistent type who finds the board more often than not and gives exotics structure.

Our three free plays today — Phreddie Mac in Race 1, Leo's Legacy in Race 2, and Redden in Race 3 — all come in at TrackWiz ratings in the 87-range, which signals a solid but competitive tier of confidence. None of these are laydowns, but all three carry morning lines of 5/2 or 3/1, meaning if our analysis is right, there's real money to be made without chasing inflated chalk.

One thread connecting these early races: all three go on the main dirt track, and with cool temps and no moisture in the forecast, expect a firm, consistent surface through the afternoon. That tends to favor horses with proven dirt form and clean trips — exactly the profile that pops in our free picks today. Get familiar with the pace setups in Races 1 through 3 before the card heats up.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:20 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Maiden Special Weight sprints are always uncertain, but this one has a clear ratings standout going postward at a generous morning line — and a tight cluster of closers who could scramble for the minor slots.

win1The Ace ProjectML 5/1

The Ace Project tops the TrackWiz ratings at 84.17 — more than 25 points clear of the field average — and goes off at 5/1 morning line, which represents genuine overlay value for the top-rated horse in a maiden sprint. Rocco Bowen, a capable hand who gets multiple mounts today, pilots him for trainer Timothy E. Hamm. An average speed figure of 53 is solid for a 5½-furlong maiden, and in a first-time-starter-heavy field, having workable figures already on the board is a meaningful edge.

place5Distinct RulerML 9/5

Distinct Ruler is the morning-line favorite at 9/5 and carries a 58.67 TrackWiz rating along with the field's best average speed figure of 54. Trainer James R. Jackson gives him a favorable look, and Luis Raul Rivera — active and effective today — takes the mount. The short price limits the value, but his speed edge makes him a near-lock for the place slot in a thin maiden field.

show2All Nine YardsML 2/1

All Nine Yards is the 2/1 second choice and carries a solid 58.33 TrackWiz rating for trainer Richard Zielinski with Jose A. Bracho up. Without a published average speed figure on the sheet, he's likely first-time out or lightly raced, which adds uncertainty — but Bracho's presence and the 2/1 price suggest the connections like his chances. Worth including in show parlays and exacta wheels as a hedge against the top two.

Race 5

6:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Printrack dominates the ratings in this 5½-furlong claiming sprint and looks like a wire-to-wire type, but the second and third choices are live enough to make the exacta interesting.

win4PrintrackML 2/1

Printrack is the standout of the day's card — an 88.54 TrackWiz rating, a 34% career win rate, and the field's best average speed figure at 55. Trainer Marco Ccamaque sends him out with Deshawn L. Parker, who's been busy and effective all afternoon. At 2/1, he's not a huge price, but when you combine peak speed figures, a 34% win rate, and a top rating by a wide margin, you play the horse — not the number. This is a confident best bet.

place5ToddcheroML 5/2

Toddchero rates second in the field at 73.9 and matches Printrack's 55 average speed figure — the only other horse in the race to hit that number. Ricardo Feliciano rides for trainer Benny R. Feliciano (a family operation), and at 5/2, he's a natural place partner. A 14% career win rate in claiming company says he's been knocking at the door, and if Printrack gets hustled early, Toddchero has the foot to make it a race.

show6Thanks FrankML 9/2

Thanks Frank checks in third in the ratings at 69.64 with a 16% career win rate and a 54 average speed figure — just a tick off the top. Jerome J. Innis has the mount for trainer Norman Rose, and at 9/2, there's some legitimate show value here. He's the kind of consistent claiming type who finds the board in competitive spots, making him a reliable triactor anchor.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden sprint with a dominant ratings leader going at near-even money — the real question is which of the mid-priced horses earns a piece of the exacta.

win2Killa CreedML 8/5

Killa Creed tops the TrackWiz model at 89.12 — the highest rating of any horse on the entire day's card — and is rightfully installed as the 8/5 morning-line favorite. Trainer David Wolochuk sends out a horse with a 53 average speed figure for this 5½-furlong maiden, and Chelsey Keiser gets the call. In a maiden field where no one has a win to their name, having the clearest model advantage matters more than usual. Killa Creed is the card's best play.

place3Doin MischiefML 5/1

Doin Mischief brings a 63.17 TrackWiz rating and a 52 average speed figure into a race where speed figures are clustered closely. Erik Barbaran rides for trainer Israel Flores, and at 5/1, there's genuine place value here. Maiden sprints frequently produce a front-runner and a chaser — if Killa Creed gets to the lead, Doin Mischief's profile says he could be the one grinding at her heels.

show5HappycastleML 4/1

Happycastle rates third in the field at 59.12 with a 53 average speed figure and goes at 4/1 with Angel I. Diaz up for trainer Rodney C. Faulkner. The price is fair, the rating is competitive for a maiden, and he's a logical show-ticket inclusion. In maiden races where pedigree and training patterns can't always be fully quantified, having a horse with consistent figure support at a fair price is exactly what you want anchoring the bottom of your exotics.

Race 7

7:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

This six-furlong allowance features a tight ratings cluster at the top with four horses within 12 points of each other — pace scenario and trip luck could be the deciding factor.

win1All Pepped UpML 5/1

All Pepped Up tops the TrackWiz ratings at 84.17 and heads to the gate at 5/1 morning line — real overlay value for the model's top choice. Erik Barbaran pilots him for trainer Robert M. Gorham, and a 28% career win rate gives him a credible track record of closing out races. His average speed figure of 53 fits the six-furlong distance at Thistledown, and in a race where the 2/1 favorite (Ryka) rates a full 11-plus points lower, this is the kind of spot where TrackWiz analysis finds genuine edge.

place5Electric EdenML 4/1

Electric Eden rates second in the field at 77.62 with an average speed figure of 54 — the second-best in the race — and goes at 4/1 for trainer Richard Zielinski with Brandon Tapara aboard. His 18% career win rate is modest, but the combination of a sharp speed figure and a rating that outpaces several shorter-priced rivals makes him an appealing exacta partner. If the pace gets honest early, he should have the foot to collect a piece.

show2Blue Tail FlyML 9/2

Blue Tail Fly rates third at 76.4 and brings a strong 33% career win rate — tied for the field's best — along with a 55 average speed figure, the top number in the race. Dylan Machado picks up the mount for trainer William D. Cowans at 9/2 morning line. If you're building an exacta or triactor, Blue Tail Fly's combination of winning percentage and raw speed makes him a durable underneath threat that shouldn't be ignored.

Race 8

8:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Val's Twinstar holds a commanding ratings edge in this six-furlong claiming finale, but a deep secondary group — including two horses from the same barn — sets up an intriguing exacta battle for the minor spots.

win1Val's TwinstarML 3/1

Val's Twinstar leads the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and is set at 3/1 morning line with Luis Antonio Gonzalez, the same jockey who opened the card today. Trainer Valerie K. Shanyfelt saddles a horse carrying a 23% career win rate and an average speed figure of 54 — very competitive for a six-furlong claiming sprint. The rating gap between Val's Twinstar and the field's second choice is nearly 14 points, which at this level is a meaningful edge. Best bet in the finale.

place7Be KozyML 8/1

Be Kozy is the value play in the place slot, sitting at 8/1 morning line despite a 73.31 TrackWiz rating — third in the field — and a 54 average speed figure that matches the top pick. Trainer Johanna Urieta saddles both Be Kozy and stablemate Kozy Night in this race, and when a barn doubles up, it often means they like both animals' chances. Deshawn L. Parker, one of the more active jockeys today, handles the mount. At 8/1, this is the card's best place overlay.

show3Driven for SuccessML 5/1

Driven for Success checks in at 71.21 TrackWiz rating for trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich — the same barn responsible for Leo's Legacy's top pick in Race 2 — with Luis Raul Rivera riding at 5/1 morning line. A 16% career win rate and a 53 average speed figure make him a steady, if unspectacular, presence. In a field this competitive for the minor spots, Driven for Success offers a reasonable price and a recognizable trainer angle to anchor your show tickets.

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It's a workmanlike Monday card at Thistledown, but the conditions are ideal and there are genuine betting opportunities from gate to wire. Phreddie Mac, Leo's Legacy, and Redden give free readers three solid angles to start. Subscribers get the full-card edge, including the Killa Creed pace setup and our exotic ticket breakdowns for the back half. Good luck out there — and as always, bet smart.

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