Thistledown Picks & Predictions — September 17, 2026

O Sugar Sugar rates second in the field at 72.78 and is worth a serious look at 5/1 on the morning line — that's real value against a chalk at short odds. Bailey Weatherly rides for trainer Christian Flores, and with an average speed figure of 51, O Sugar Sugar compiles right there with the top horses. She's the prime play underneath Isa Fortress and a great piece for any exacta or trifecta.

Fabulous Song rates third in the field at 58.35 and draws the 3/1 morning line despite an average speed figure of just 50 — the public clearly sees something in her workouts or connections. Jose A. Leon rides for Danny R. Bird, and her rating edges out several horses who are showing similar speed numbers. As a show anchor she offers a bit of a cushion in a race where first-timers can be unpredictable.

Sammy's Smile is the 2/1 morning-line favorite and rates second in the field at 70.61, giving him real credibility even if our top pick shades him in the ratings. Fernando Salazar Becerra rides for trainer Richard Zielinski — a barn that keeps runners sharp — and his average speed of 51 and 19% career win rate suggest a horse who shows up consistently. He's an excellent place option and the most logical horse to threaten Into Gold in the stretch.

Mister Mobil opens as the 9/5 favorite and rates third at 67.86, which tells you the model and the market aren't fully aligned here. His average speed figure of 52 ties Into Gold, and a 16% career win rate for trainer Ricardo Bailey suggests steady if unspectacular form. He's a safe show play in this spot, though bettors looking for value may want to reconsider his short price at the windows.

Inside Joke rates just below Tulsi at 55.83 with an average speed figure of 54 that matches the top pick. Trainer Robert M. Gorham puts Erik Barbaran aboard, and Gorham also has Pipsy Chick in the race — always worth noting when a trainer saddles multiple runners. Inside Joke's speed figure and solid rating make her a strong place contender, and at 7/2 there's a little value to go with it.

About That Time draws a 4/1 morning line from a big barn — trainer Brendan P. Walsh — which is the kind of connection that gets attention in maiden races. Her TrackWiz rating of 55 is right in the thick of the top group, and while no average speed figure is recorded, Walsh's maiden runners often debut with more than they show on paper. She's a worthwhile show inclusion and a name to watch if the pace collapses the leaders.

Bend My Ear is impossible to dismiss at 8/5 — actually the shorter price than our top pick — and brings a 25% career win rate that dwarfs almost anyone else in this field. Trainer David Wolochuk also has Magic Moon in the race, suggesting confidence in the barn, and Bend My Ear's average speed of 54 leads all runners. If you want to flip the win and place picks based on price, there's a reasonable case to be made here.

Suzie Q's Sister rates third in the field at 80.98 — meaningfully clear of the rest — and posts a 16% career win rate with an average speed of 53. Luis Alberto Batista rides for Jason DaCosta, a trainer who has multiple runners on today's card and clearly has his horses firing. At 5/1, she's the best show value in this race and a strong trifecta anchor behind the top two.

Bold Sally is the longshot value angle here, but her profile is compelling enough to slot in as the place pick. She rates second in the field at 66.66 with an average speed figure of 52 — actually better than the favorite — and Jacinto Lopez sends her out at 10/1, which is a price that deserves serious attention. Mauro Cedillo in the irons adds a reliable rider to the mix, and if Native Lucci runs into any trouble early, Bold Sally has the numbers to capitalize.

Youngandfree rates third in the field at 56.67 with the best average speed figure of any horse in the top three at 53. Trainer Kristina M. Tumblin puts Erik Barbaran aboard, and the 3/1 morning line reflects legitimate public confidence. She's a solid show contender who could easily run into the money if the pace develops in her favor.

Teaching Moment is the most fascinating horse on the entire card — a 75% career win rate is an eye-popping figure that demands attention, and her TrackWiz rating of 84.42 confirms she belongs. Trainer David Wolochuk puts Chelsey Keiser aboard at 9/2, and her average speed of 54 actually leads the field. The reason she's the place pick rather than the win pick comes down to the model's edge for Water Into Wine, but Teaching Moment is live at this price and dangerous over a mile.

Jac's Doe Maker brings a 60% career win rate to the gate — second only to Teaching Moment in this field — and that kind of strike rate from a horse at 6/1 is worth a hard look in exotics. Fernando Salazar Becerra rides for trainer Ivan Vazquez, and Jac's Doe Maker's average speed of 53 is consistent with the top contenders. She may be third in the ratings but her winning pedigree suggests she can fire on any given day.