Daily Picks

Thistledown Picks & Predictions — September 16, 2026

September 16, 20268 racesAll Thistledown picks

This card ran on September 16, 2026.

Best bets at Thistledown, September 16, 2026

Race 12OliverioML 2/112:50 PM EDT

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 6 races are for members.

A free account opens race 2 too. Premium opens all 8, with AI ratings on every runner and SmartBet, which splits one bet across the horses you like.

Join Free See plans · from $9.99

It's a pleasant Wednesday afternoon at Thistledown — partly cloudy skies, 79°F, and conditions that should keep the dirt track playing honest all day. No weather excuses tonight, which means the horses that belong on top should get there.

We've got an 8-race card to break down, mixing Maiden Special Weights, Allowance company, and a pair of Starter Optional Claiming routes that always draw some interesting dropdowns and class manipulators. There's plenty to dig into across all conditions and distances.

TrackWiz analysis covers all 8 races — the first three are on us, and Races 4 through 8 are available to subscribers. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:50 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A Starter Optional Claiming mile on the dirt where the TrackWiz ratings tell a clear two-horse story at the top, but a third runner lurks with the best average speed in the field.

win2OliverioML 2/1

Oliverio earns the top spot on our board with a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 — the highest in this field by a meaningful margin. His 27% career win rate is the best among horses with any meaningful record here, and jockey Fernando Salazar Becerra gives him a live pilot at a track where knowing the fair grounds matters. At 2/1 on the morning line, he's not a price, but he's the most complete horse in the field going a mile on the dirt.

place1Puff'smagicdragonML 7/2

Puff'smagicdragon rates second on our model at 84.65 and figures to be right there at every call with Erik Barbaran in the irons. A 22% career win rate is respectable in this company, and at 7/2 he's a fair each-way price if Oliverio has any vulnerability. He's the logical backup in exacta combinations.

show7AcconaML 6/1

Accona stands out as the show pick thanks to the field's top average speed figure at 54 — a tick above everyone else. Trainer Nery Alvarez sends him out at 6/1 on the morning line, which gives you real value if he fires his typical race. He's the kind of horse worth including underneath in trifectas at a price that beats his true odds.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:20 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden sprint where first-time starters and lightly-raced maidens collide, making the pace scenario murky and the form lines thin — but one horse separates himself sharply on our ratings.

win3Dream BoyML 5/2

Dream Boy is the clear top selection here with a TrackWiz rating of 83.08 — nearly 25 points clear of the next-rated horse in the field. He carries a 53 average speed figure (tied for best in the race) and trainer Yoni R. Orantes sends him out with Victor R. Fernandez up at a favorable morning line of 5/2. In a wide-open maiden field, that kind of ratings edge is exactly what you want to anchor your ticket.

place8Paul RalphML 2/1

Paul Ralph drew the morning line favorite's odds at 2/1 under trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich, who also saddles the Race 1 horse. The curiosity here is that his average speed figure is not available, meaning this may be a first-out runner whose morning works have the connections bullish. In maiden races, trainer confidence — reflected in that low morning line — often tells you something the form lines can't.

show6Bay Ja BlueML 7/2

Bay Ja Blue matches Dream Boy for the top average speed figure in the field at 53 and earned a 55.83 TrackWiz rating, making him the third-best-rated horse in the race. Trainer Jacinto Lopez puts Mauro Cedillo on board at 7/2, giving you a nice price on a horse with legitimate speed metrics. He's the natural show horse and worth a spot in trifecta coverage.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

The free portion of today's card is loaded with intrigue. Markaway opens at even money in Race 3 and carries our highest rating of the free races — a 90.00 — making that short sprint over 5½ furlongs on dirt the anchor play of the early card. When a horse comes in rated this high and sits at even money on the morning line, you're looking at a horse the market already agrees on. That's alignment worth respecting.

Oliverio draws our attention in the Race 1 mile, while Dream Boy gets the nod in the Race 2 six-furlong maiden sprint at 5/2 on the morning line. With a clean, fast surface expected to hold all afternoon, pace will be premium — horses that can establish position early without burning out should have a real edge in these shorter dirt sprints. Watch how the early splits unfold in Race 1; it could set the tone for reading pace scenarios throughout the card.

Free with an account

Open the next race free

A free account opens the first 2 races at every track, and every race at our Track of the Day. No credit card needed.

Create a free account Sign in

Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:50 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Markaway draws near-even money in a maiden claiming sprint at 5½ furlongs, and the TrackWiz model backs the crowd — though Cleatus and Jace make this more than a one-horse race on paper.

win4MarkawayML EVN

Markaway enters as the morning line even-money choice and our model agrees emphatically, posting the field's top rating of 90.00. He also carries the best average speed figure in the race at 52, and Jason Simpson — a capable pilot — gets the call. In maiden claiming company, a horse this dominant on the ratings sheet at an even-money price is as close to a structured play as you'll find at this level.

place3CleatusML 3/1

Cleatus sits second on our ratings at 67.35 and goes at 3/1 on the morning line with Alejandro Gomez, Jr. up for trainer Rey Juarez-Mendoza. His 51 average speed figure is solid for this level, and at that price he's the natural exacta partner with Markaway. If the favorite stumbles at the break or gets caught in traffic, Cleatus has the profile to capitalize.

show6JaceML 5/2

Jace rates third in the field at 55.44 despite being posted at 5/2, making him the second choice on the morning line — a slight disconnect worth noting. Jefferson Skerrett rides for trainer Susan D. Yoder, and the Skerrett family (Jefferson also trains in this barn circuit) has a comfort level navigating Thistledown's main track. He's solid underneath in all exotic combinations.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 4

2:20 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

This maiden special weight at six furlongs features a cluster of unknown quantities, but two horses — both rated in the mid-to-high 80s — stand well above the rest of the field on our model.

win2Lowells LegacyML 3/1

Lowells Legacy is our top selection with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08, the highest in this field. Trainer Jeff Fletcher sends him out with Gerardo Corrales at 3/1 on the morning line, and his 51 average speed figure gives him a concrete benchmark to work from in what is otherwise a field heavy on unknowns. In maiden special weight company, a high rating at a fair price is the combination you're looking for.

place7EverynowandthenML 4/1

Everynowandthen rates just a hair below at 85.62 and is posted at 4/1, giving you slightly better value than the top pick. T.D. Houghton gets the mount for trainer Danny R. Bird, and his 52 average speed figure is the best among the two top-rated horses. If Lowells Legacy gets caught up in a pace duel, Everynowandthen has the profile to pick up the pieces.

show6Rivers Run FastML 2/1

Rivers Run Fast draws the morning line favorite's slot at 2/1 but sits third on our ratings at 65.52 — a notable gap below the top two. Brandon Tapara rides for trainer Loren Huepenbecker, and his 52 average speed figure at least matches the top end of the field. He's a logical show horse, but the ratings suggest the crowd may be overestimating him slightly.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 5

2:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

Trainer Kim A. Puhl sends out two horses in this six-furlong allowance, and the split between them on our model is stark — one is a clear top choice while the other fills out the show slot, creating an interesting internal dynamic.

win3Without ObjectionML 2/1

Without Objection leads the field with a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 and a 25% career win rate — tied for best in the race. Luis Antonio Gonzalez gets the call for trainer Kim A. Puhl, and his 55 average speed figure gives him a legitimate edge over most of this field. At 2/1 on the morning line, he's fairly priced for the top-rated horse in an allowance field.

place5Vodka N GingeraleML 9/2

Vodka N Gingerale rates a solid 74.56 and also carries a 25% career win rate — the same as the top pick, which tells you this horse knows how to win. Chelsey Keiser rides for trainer John Steve Cannon at 9/2, and a 55 average speed figure matches Without Objection. That combination of win percentage and speed figure at a better price makes her a strong place play and a value add in exactas.

show1MellifluousML 5/2

Mellifluous fills the show slot for trainer Kim A. Puhl, who also has the top pick in this same race — giving the barn an unusual dual presence. She rates 74.48, essentially even with Vodka N Gingerale, and posts the field's best career win percentage at 11%... wait, at 11% that's actually the lowest among the top three here, which explains the show role. Gerardo Corrales takes the mount at 5/2, and she's worth the spot underneath in trifectas as barn support is clearly present.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 6

3:20 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A five-and-a-half furlong Starter Optional Claiming sprint where our model's top pick is going off at a price — Chess Not Checkers holds the highest rating in the field but comes in as a non-favorite on the morning line.

win6Chess Not CheckersML 7/2

Chess Not Checkers tops our ratings at 86.35 and draws 7/2 on the morning line despite having the clearest edge in this field — that's a potential value situation. Jose A. Bracho gets the call for trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich, who also conditions Race 1 and Race 6 runners on today's card. His 54 average speed figure is tied for best in the race, and an 18% career win rate is workmanlike in this starter claiming company. The ratings edge at a non-favorite price is the angle here.

place3Absolute MiracleML 9/5

Absolute Miracle draws the morning line favoritism at 9/5 for the Jefferson Skerrett–Jeffrey Skerrett barn, a trainer-jockey combination that keeps business in the family and often runs sharp at this track. She rates 78.75 on our model — second in the field — and her 25% career win rate is the best in the race. She's a deserving favorite on record alone; our model just likes Chess Not Checkers a bit more.

show2CalisueML 9/2

Calisue rates 61.23, sits third on our model, and draws Chelsey Keiser for trainer Anthony F. Rini at 9/2 on the morning line. A 52 average speed figure is a tick below the top two, but her 19% career win rate says she shows up consistently. At nearly 5-1, she's a solid show play and provides real trifecta value if either of the top two have an off day.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 7

3:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Two horses separate from the pack in this six-furlong claiming race — Tyson's Lil' Star and Sound City are separated by less than two points on our model, setting up what should be a compelling stretch duel.

win3Tyson's Lil' StarML 2/1

Tyson's Lil' Star leads the field with a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 and posts a 20% career win rate at 2/1 on the morning line. Luis Antonio Gonzalez rides for trainer Valerie K. Shanyfelt, and a 54 average speed figure ties him for top in this field. In claiming company at six furlongs, consistent speed figures and a top model rating are a reliable combination.

place1Sound CityML 9/5

Sound City is the most interesting place play on today's card — he rates 86.61, just two points behind the top pick, yet comes in at 9/5 as the morning line favorite. Luis Raul Rivera handles the riding for trainer Timothy E. Hamm, and his 54 average speed figure matches Tyson's Lil' Star perfectly. This is a true photo-finish matchup on paper, and structuring an exacta both ways is worth considering.

show4Rascal FlashML 8/1

Rascal Flash opens at 8/1 but posts a solid 67.32 TrackWiz rating — well clear of anything else in the bottom half of the field. Fernando Salazar Becerra rides for trainer Robert M. Gorham, and while his 13% career win rate is modest, his 53 average speed figure gives him a realistic shot at the show spot if the top two battle each other into the lane. At 8/1, he's a live trifecta piece at a price.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 8

4:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The closing mile on the dirt features a legitimate upset angle — the morning line favorite rates below our top pick on the model, and a 7/5 chalk who may be overbet creates potential value at the top of the card.

win3Big BucksalotML 7/2

Big Bucksalot tops our ratings at 86.35 and goes at 7/2 on the morning line — a better price than the morning line favorite in this field. Alexander Chavez gets the mount for trainer Craig Sweeting, and his 53 average speed figure puts him right in the hunt for a one-mile dirt race. A 21% career win rate and the highest TrackWiz rating in the field make him our clear top selection in what could be a value spot.

place6SundaeswithsandyML 7/5

Sundaeswithsandy is the morning line favorite at 7/5 and rates 71.79 on our model — legitimate, but 14-plus points below our top pick. DeShawn L. Parker gets the call for trainer Marco Ccamaque, and her 25% career win rate is the best in the field. If you're betting her, the place pool may be more forgiving than the win pool at those odds; she's a sensible place play in an exacta keying Big Bucksalot on top.

show7VladislavML 8/1

Vladislav draws 8/1 on the morning line but rates a respectable 70.98 — third in this field and only a point behind the morning line favorite. Jefferson Skerrett rides for trainer Jeffrey Skerrett, keeping the family stable active on the late end of the card. His 51 average speed figure is slightly below the leaders, but at 8/1 in a seven-horse field he's worth a spot underneath in trifectas for players looking to maximize their payout.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Today's headline play is Markaway in Race 3 — even money, highest free-race rating on the card, and a surface that should suit. Back it up with Oliverio in Race 1 and Dream Boy in Race 2 for the early trifecta of free best bets. For the full card — including Without Objection in the Race 5 Allowance sprint and our exotic ticket strategy — subscribers have everything they need waiting at /pricing. Good luck out there, and let's have a big afternoon at Thistledown.

← All Thistledown picks & predictions